Category 1 Hurricane Carlotta hits Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:30 PM GMT on June 16, 2012

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Hurricane Carlotta made landfall near Escondido, Mexico Friday night at 8 pm PDT as a Category 1 hurricane with 90 mph winds. Carlotta moved inland over the rugged terrain of Mexico this morning, and has weakened to a tropical depression. Since Carlotta was a relatively small hurricane, strong winds affected only a small portion of the coast, and wind damage was probably fairly limited. However, the hurricane has dumped heavy rains along the coast to the east of Acapulco, and two deaths from a landslide triggered by heavy rains occurred this morning in the Oaxaca state community of Pluma Hidalgo. Carlotta will continue to dump heavy rains along the coast to the east of Acapulco, and the 4 - 8 inches of total rainfall that will occur in some areas will be capable of causing more life-threatening flash floods and landslides through the weekend.


Figure 1. Radar image of Carlotta from the Puerto Ánoel radar shortly before the storm made landfall.

The Atlantic is quiet
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic today. Several models are predicting that a tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical depression could form in Mexico's Bay of Campeche sometime June 22 - 24.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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714. Hurricanes305
8:25 PM GMT on June 17, 2012
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Hello everyone just popping in our low in the SW caribbean looking good so far


Hey man, how's it going. Look like the tropical mess in the caribbean have a better chance of development than the BOC solution by some of the models. The low in the sw carribbean should move north as the monsoonal trough lifts a litte bit north as well thus absorbing the convection and organizing slowly just southeast of the Yucatan then move north in the gulf where there is some nice upper ridging (<10 knots of shear) and develop.
Member Since: May 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2043
713. Hurricanes305
8:20 PM GMT on June 17, 2012
Quoting Skyepony:
I'm not buying this BOC storm yet. That should end in the EPAC. The sheared Atlantic blob may pull out a little sooner than I thought but still pulling trough & moisture over Cuba & such like I mentioned. Still like the SW Caribbean blob. Nice blob there now. That may twist abit but fail to close. That's the drowning I was talking about for Cuba the other day..I'll add Haiti, most of DR & Jamaica to that..

The actual SW Caribbean blob I'm expecting should get going in a few days, it could die over the Yucatan like the last one or become something..


Hmmm very good explanation of the tropical mischief Skyepony.


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712. sunlinepr
8:09 PM GMT on June 17, 2012
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9656
711. aspectre
8:00 PM GMT on June 17, 2012
NEW BLOG
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
710. wunderkidcayman
7:32 PM GMT on June 17, 2012
Hello everyone just popping in our low in the SW caribbean looking good so far
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9595
709. Skyepony (Mod)
5:55 PM GMT on June 17, 2012
I'm not buying this BOC storm yet. That should end in the EPAC. The sheared Atlantic blob may pull out a little sooner than I thought but still pulling trough & moisture over Cuba & such like I mentioned. Still like the SW Caribbean blob. Nice blob there now. That may twist abit but fail to close. That's the drowning I was talking about for Cuba the other day..I'll add Haiti, most of DR & Jamaica to that..

The actual SW Caribbean blob I'm expecting should get going in a few days, it could die over the Yucatan like the last one or become something..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36148
708. Jedkins01
5:11 PM GMT on June 17, 2012
Quoting hydrus:
This is been happening for a few years now. I have seen droughts on the west coast, but not like what has been going on. The backward pattern as we always called it has been more dominant. This certainly is not normal.


Yeah, it is starting to scare me a little...
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6882
707. PedleyCA
4:51 PM GMT on June 17, 2012
Quoting aspectre:
inre comment656... I reduced the sizes of the SST and Depth26 maps by 1/2, then stacked them side-by-side for easier comparisons.
Seems like they're better for color comparisons, but the writing is unreadable.

So what do you guys think? Keep them at reduced size or return them to a readable size?
Would adding links to full-sized maps make the reduced size maps acceptably better?


I like what you did. Everything is better with a link to the original.
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4940
706. BahaHurican
4:39 PM GMT on June 17, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
Leave crown weather alone.Maybe they agree on the same thing.Geesh you all treat the kid like a celeb..
Hey, if we can't tease our own, who can we tease... LOL

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Rob Lightbown.
Yeah, Rob - I got the R right, anyway... pretty cool guy, IIRC...

And Hellooo, stormwatcherCI... was just wondering what was up with u...

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705. Patrap
4:36 PM GMT on June 17, 2012
New Entry:

"Mark"..


LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125681
704. Patrap
4:35 PM GMT on June 17, 2012
There are 9 US Bases on Okinawa..they are very Typhoon savvy folks as I served there in the USMC at Camp Hansen.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125681
703. hydrus
4:33 PM GMT on June 17, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It was still made a week ago, making it outdated. A week ago it appeared that development could take place in the west Caribbean. Now it looks to be the Bay of Campeche.
Well then technically it was made three and a half days ago, which means it was made half a week ago..lol
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702. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:33 PM GMT on June 17, 2012
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52340
701. Grothar
4:33 PM GMT on June 17, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It was still made a week ago, making it outdated. A week ago it appeared that development could take place in the west Caribbean. Now it looks to be the Bay of Campeche.


It is possible something could develop in both areas. A number of low pressure areas are expected to form in both areas. Don't lose hope.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23739
700. Txrainstorm
4:32 PM GMT on June 17, 2012
Just skyped with my son in Okinawa. Kadena AFB is at TCCOR 2. Still hoping it keeps turning north as forecast. I know they are prepared but different now that my son is there.Reminded him of Ike and how rough it was and told him this is going to be worse. His dorm is 1/4 mile from beach on the first floor. He just plays it off and says "Mom it will be fine!" Thanks for keeping me updated on this blog!! Prayers out to all the servicemen and women on Kadena!
Member Since: September 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 95
699. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
4:31 PM GMT on June 17, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
698. Grothar
4:31 PM GMT on June 17, 2012
Quoting Patrap:
Julian calendar
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia



The Julian calendar is a reform of the Roman calendar introduced by Julius Caesar in 46 BC (708 AUC). It took effect the following year, 45 BC (709 AUC), and continued to be used as the civil calendar in some countries into the 20th century.

The calendar has a regular year of 365 days divided into 12 months, as listed in Table of months. A leap day is added to February every four years.

The Julian year is, therefore, on average 365.25 days long.


That is not the same as the Julian date, that is the Julian Calendar. Not the same thing.

The number of days since noon on January 1, -4712, i.e., January 1, 4713 BC (Seidelmann 1992). It was proposed by J. J. Scaliger in 1583, so the name for this system derived from Julius Scaliger, not Julius Caesar. Scaliger defined Day One was as a day when three calendrical cycles converged. The first cycle was the 28 year period over which the Julian calendar repeats days of the week (the so-called solar number). After 28 years, all the dates fall on the same days of the week, so one need only buy 28 calendars. (Note that since the Gregorian calendar was adopted the calendar now takes 400 years to repeat.) The second was the 19 year golden number cycle over which phases of the moon almost land on the same dates of the year. The third cycle was the 15 year ancient Roman tax cycle of Emperor Constantine (the so-called indiction). Scaliger picked January 1, 4713 BC on the Julian calendar as Day One. The three cycles coincide every 7980 years (Tøndering).




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697. stormpetrol
4:29 PM GMT on June 17, 2012





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696. Grothar
4:29 PM GMT on June 17, 2012
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Grothar would know, he turned 13 when it happened.. ;)


Twit!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23739
695. Grothar
4:28 PM GMT on June 17, 2012
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Then my world history teacher in Freshman year must have been wrong...


He/she was wrong. There is a difference between the Julian Calendar and the Julian date.

The Julian date was invented by Julius Scaliger, and actually named it after his father.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23739
694. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:28 PM GMT on June 17, 2012
XX/AOI/XXL
MARK
33.11N/65.71W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52340
693. stormpetrol
4:27 PM GMT on June 17, 2012
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
692. Grothar
4:26 PM GMT on June 17, 2012
Quoting aspectre:
inre comment656... I reduced the sizes of the SST and Depth26 maps by 1/2, then stacked them side-by-side for easier comparisons.
Seems like they're better for color comparisons, but the writing is unreadable.

So what do you guys think? Keep them at reduced size or return them to a readable size?
Would adding links to full-sized maps make the reduced size maps acceptably better?


They look fine to me. I just CTRL + and I can read them.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23739
691. CybrTeddy
4:25 PM GMT on June 17, 2012
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Then my world history teacher in Freshman year must have been wrong...


Grothar would know, he turned 13 when it happened.. ;)
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23015
690. Patrap
4:24 PM GMT on June 17, 2012
Julian calendar
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia



The Julian calendar is a reform of the Roman calendar introduced by Julius Caesar in 46 BC (708 AUC). It took effect the following year, 45 BC (709 AUC), and continued to be used as the civil calendar in some countries into the 20th century.

The calendar has a regular year of 365 days divided into 12 months, as listed in Table of months. A leap day is added to February every four years.

The Julian year is, therefore, on average 365.25 days long.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125681
689. WxGeekVA
4:23 PM GMT on June 17, 2012
Quoting Grothar:


Sorry, wrong Julian. The Julian date was not named for Julius Caesar.


Then my world history teacher in Freshman year must have been wrong...
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3466
688. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:21 PM GMT on June 17, 2012
1
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52340
687. aspectre
4:18 PM GMT on June 17, 2012
inre comment656... I reduced the sizes of the SST and Depth26 maps by 1/2, then stacked them side-by-side for easier comparisons (within the same area as 1 map)
Seems like they're better for color comparisons, but the writing is unreadable.

So what do you guys think? Keep them at reduced size or return them to a readable size?
Would adding links to full-sized maps make the reduced size maps acceptably better?
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
686. Hurricanes305
4:18 PM GMT on June 17, 2012
Quoting Tazmanian:
dran wind shear is still 30 too 50kt in the Caribbean




Yea, however the upper ridge in the Gulf should meet with the one over Panama with the help of latent heat produce by the moisture and the MJO over the caribbean and the lowering of pressure just check out the vorticity map in the sw caribbean. Looks like a low could spin up and slip underneath those tstorms in the central caribbean.
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685. LargoFl
4:17 PM GMT on June 17, 2012
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684. Patrap
4:15 PM GMT on June 17, 2012


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683. islander101010
4:14 PM GMT on June 17, 2012
Quoting Patrap:
tickle.the.t.w.
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682. Patrap
4:12 PM GMT on June 17, 2012
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125681
681. TropicalAnalystwx13
4:11 PM GMT on June 17, 2012
Quoting hydrus:
look at the date on the bottom map.

It was still made a week ago, making it outdated. A week ago it appeared that development could take place in the west Caribbean. Now it looks to be the Bay of Campeche.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30280
680. Grothar
4:10 PM GMT on June 17, 2012
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Gaius Julius Caesar



Sorry, wrong Julian. The Julian date was not named for Julius Caesar.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23739
679. STXHurricanes2012
4:10 PM GMT on June 17, 2012
The wgom is still favored for development...imo
Member Since: June 4, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 767
678. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:06 PM GMT on June 17, 2012
XX/AOI/XXL
MARK
15.55N/73.75W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52340
677. beell
4:05 PM GMT on June 17, 2012
.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 137 Comments: 15353
676. wxmod
4:05 PM GMT on June 17, 2012
Japan weather modification pre-hurricane of biblical proportions. This is what it takes to destroy a hurricane, thousands of jet flights and tons of mining waste. The power of dust.

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675. STXHurricanes2012
4:05 PM GMT on June 17, 2012
Lol i didnt see a comment similar to what i was saying until i posted lol

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674. Bitmap7
4:02 PM GMT on June 17, 2012
>>
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673. Patrap
4:01 PM GMT on June 17, 2012
NOLA disco,

Previous discussion... /issued 329 am CDT sun Jun 17 2012/


Discussion...
overall...a fairly quiet weather regime will be in place for the
forecast area through the week. A weak middle/upper level trough off
the Louisiana coast with a subtle surface reflection will shift
west to Texas by Monday. Drier air from the east will continue to
encroach upon the forecast area. As a result...the best rain
chances will again be confined to the southwest quadrant of the
forecast area today...nearest the weak area of low pressure. As
we move into the work week...weak ridging aloft and a prominent
ridge at the surface will prevail with only small rain chances
expected. Temperatures will warm two or three degree during the
period...but will average close to normal. Rain chances may inch
up a bit toward the end of the work week and into next weekend if
an area of low pressure develops or moves into the southwest Gulf
with a wave moving across the central Gulf bringing increased
moisture northward as the models have indicated for several runs
now. However...the latest trend with the medium range model runs
has been toward a drier solution for the central Gulf Coast region
for the end of the week with ridging remaining in control and the
best moisture remaining to the south and west of the region. 11
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672. beell
4:01 PM GMT on June 17, 2012
.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 137 Comments: 15353
671. hydrus
4:01 PM GMT on June 17, 2012
This is a lot of upward motion.
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670. Patrap
4:00 PM GMT on June 17, 2012
We had that conversation yesterday, well least some did.

I just sat bac and chuckled.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125681
669. beell
3:59 PM GMT on June 17, 2012
Quoting Patrap:
Nah, I think it's not a tick over 4.5
;-)



Crown weather said the same about a half hour ago.

: )


As we have been talking about for a while now, tropical development is still favored in the western Gulf of Mexico later next week and into next weekend. The monsoon trough in the eastern Pacific and western Caribbean will be slowly swelling northward with time into next week, and the fact that Hurricane Carlotta in the eastern Pacific is moving close to the Mexican coastline instead of out to sea illustrates that this is already beginning to occur.
Levi, June 15


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668. Patrap
3:59 PM GMT on June 17, 2012
#666.

The anti-post?

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125681
667. hydrus
3:58 PM GMT on June 17, 2012
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Look at the day that map was made though: June 12th. That makes it nearly a week old.
look at the date on the bottom map.
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666. STXHurricanes2012
3:58 PM GMT on June 17, 2012
But look at the date of that map lol it says june 13th also it says week two
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665. 1900hurricane
3:55 PM GMT on June 17, 2012
Quoting hydrus:
The hazards map has the Bahamas, Western Caribbean and the the Central and Eastern Gulf as locations most probable for cyclone development, not the west..

Look at the day that map was made though: June 12th. That makes it nearly a week old.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 45 Comments: 11566
664. washingtonian115
3:55 PM GMT on June 17, 2012
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Gaius Julius Caesar
Oh.Lol.I though he was referring it as my name or something(hits self with a frying pan?)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.