Hurricane Carlotta bears down on Mexico's Pacific coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:10 PM GMT on June 15, 2012

Share this Blog
33
+

Hurricane Carlotta has steadily intensified today as it heads northwest towards the Mexican coast east of Acapulco. Recent satellite loops show a well-organized storm with a prominent eye, solid eyewall with cold cloud-tops, and good low-level spiral banding. Carlotta may be undergoing rapid intensification, thanks to favorable sea surface temperatures near 30°C (86°F) and moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. A hurricane hunter mission is en-route, and will arrive at the storm near 2pm EDT on Friday to see how strong Carlotta has become. Carlotta's rain bands have already moved over the coast of Mexico a few hundred miles east of Acapulco, as seen on Puerto Ánoel radar.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Carlotta.


Figure 2. Morning radar image of Carlotta from the Puerto Ánoel radar.

Forecast for Carlotta
Carlotta is likely to continue to strengthen as it approaches the western coast of Mexico east of Acapulco. As a large portion of the hurricane's circulation moves over the mountains of Mexico on Saturday morning, steady weakening should occur. Heavy rains from Carlotta will be the storm's main threat, and these rains will steadily progress westwards along the coast, arriving at Acapulco by Saturday morning. With rainfall amounts of 6 - 10 inches possible along the track of Carlotta, the potential for dangerous flash flooding and mudslide will be a concern all along the coast affected by Carlotta.

The Atlantic is quiet
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic today. The GFS model is predicting that some of the moisture and energy from Carlotta could move into the Gulf of Mexico next week and form a tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical depression, but this solution is unlikely.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1079 - 1029

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22Blog Index

1079. ncstorm
9:53 PM GMT on June 16, 2012

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15999
1078. aspectre
4:45 PM GMT on June 16, 2012
inre 1073 KEEPEROFTHEGATE

Well, I have Polish friends who amongst themselves refer to each other with the P-word, Jewish friends who amongst themselves refer to each other with the K-word, AfricanAmerican friends who amongst themselves...etc...
They'd still be mighty peeved if somebody*outside of their particular ethnic/religious/etc group referred to them that way.

* Including close friends, even though they usually won't mention it.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
1077. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
4:30 PM GMT on June 16, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1076. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:30 PM GMT on June 16, 2012
you mad

today pat

don't take it out

on me

iam just

the messenger

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54798
1075. wxmod
4:28 PM GMT on June 16, 2012
A lot of arctic ice going Bye Bye

Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1765
1074. washingtonian115
4:28 PM GMT on June 16, 2012
Ha ha..yankee...
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17472
1073. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:26 PM GMT on June 16, 2012
i have a guy named sam that lives in the building he even refers to himself as a jap just like iam a newf and you a southern yank
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54798
1072. LargoFl
4:23 PM GMT on June 16, 2012
.......guchol storm surge..experimental
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40751
1071. Patrap
4:23 PM GMT on June 16, 2012
Yeah maybe..

But try working on that punctuation issue.

Sometimes we havent a clue with all the run on stuff.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
1070. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:22 PM GMT on June 16, 2012
i control nothing pat

just got a good eye

and some fancy computer screens
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54798
1069. LargoFl
4:21 PM GMT on June 16, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40751
1068. Patrap
4:21 PM GMT on June 16, 2012
Hey, Im not the phonetic police, but they are Japanese my Canadian Friend.


Tokyo Rose?

me tinks you living inna Bad WW-2 Movie


We dont use those terms, well since the mid 50's last I checked.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
1067. AussieStorm
4:21 PM GMT on June 16, 2012
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
1057. AussieStorm 4:11 PM GMT on June 16, 2012 +0
Quoting Ameister12:
It wouldn't be surprising at all if Guchol does begin an EWRC sometime soon.

People of the Philippines have no idea how lucky they are right now. Guchol would of killed 100's and caused billions in peso's in destruction.
Action: Quote | Ignore User
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 7501


the japs will be just as lucky lower ssts screaming shear await the g storm approach
by the time it gets to tokyo rose it will be nothing of its former self


Very true
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15961
1066. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:19 PM GMT on June 16, 2012
1057. AussieStorm 4:11 PM GMT on June 16, 2012 +0
Quoting Ameister12:
It wouldn't be surprising at all if Guchol does begin an EWRC sometime soon.

People of the Philippines have no idea how lucky they are right now. Guchol would of killed 100's and caused billions in peso's in destruction.
Action: Quote | Ignore User
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 7501


the japs will be just as lucky lower ssts screaming shear await the g storm approach
by the time it gets to tokyo rose it will be nothing of its former self

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54798
1065. aspectre
4:17 PM GMT on June 16, 2012
997 BDAwx: ...from Mexico weather service, a graph of wind gusts at Puerto Angel.
1002 CybrTeddy That's about a 117mph gust, pretty good for a Category 1 hurricane.

Cat.2 has MaximumSustainedWinds of 96to110mph(83to95knots)154to177kmh. Remarkably, HurricaneCarlotta maintained 90knot MaxSusWinds up its last position prior to landfall, and...

...remained a 70knot(81mph) Cat.1 as it passed by Pinotepa(PNO) ~4&1/2 hours after landfall.
The coastline dot SSWest of PUH is PortAngel, ~15miles(24kilometres) from H.Carlotta's path.

Copy&paste pno, pxm, puh, 14.5n96.2w-15.6n96.7w, 15.6n96.7w-16.4n97.9w, 15.6n96.7w-15.664n96.489w into the GreatCircleMapper for more information.

Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
1064. JrWeathermanFL
4:16 PM GMT on June 16, 2012
Quoting Patrap:
Carlotta was downgraded to a depression.

keep just likes to think he controls it though.

All in jest,..

I hope.

Ah. Thanks
Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 12 Comments: 2509
1063. LargoFl
4:16 PM GMT on June 16, 2012
Severe Weather Bulletin Number EIGHT
Tropical Cyclone Alert: Typhoon "BUTCHOY" (GUCHOL)
Issued at 11:00 p.m., Saturday, 16 June 2012 Typhoon "BUTCHOY" has maintained its strength as it continues to move in a North Northwest direction.

Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 p.m.) 430 km East Northeast of Virac, Catanduanes

Coordinates: 15.2°N, 128.6°E
Strength: Maximum winds of 160 kph near the center
and gustiness of up to 195 kph
Movement: Moving North Northwest at 20 kph


Forecast Positions/Outlook: Sunday evening:
530 km East Southeast of Basco, Batanes
Monday evening:
600 km Northeast of Basco, Batanes or at
220 km South of Okinawa, Japan
Tuesday morning:
750 km Northeast of Basco, Batanes or
in the vicinity of Okinawa, Japan



No Public Storm Warning Signals Raised



Typhoon "Butchoy" is expected to enhance the Southwest Monsoon that will bring rains over Luzon and Visayas especially over the western section which may trigger flashfloods and landslides.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 15 - 25 mm per hour (heavy) within the 500 km diameter of the Typhoon.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the seaboards of Luzon, Visayas and Eastern Mindanao due to the big waves generated by the combined effects of Typhoon "Butchoy" and the Southwest Monsoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM tomorrow.






Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40751
1062. Patrap
4:14 PM GMT on June 16, 2012
Carlotta was downgraded to a depression.

keep just likes to think he controls it though.

All in jest,..

I hope.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
1061. lightinthedark
4:13 PM GMT on June 16, 2012
Something maybe to keep an eye on in a few days time in my amateur opinion


Link


Member Since: May 30, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 25
1060. JrWeathermanFL
4:13 PM GMT on June 16, 2012
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
good day bloggers
hope it a good day
i am having morning coffee here
slept in a little today
the c storm is a depression
don't those mountains work wunders

lets have a scan see what
i can find to do next

The C storm is a depression?
Huh?
Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 12 Comments: 2509
1059. Stormchaser121
4:12 PM GMT on June 16, 2012

I personally think it will be stronger than this
Member Since: September 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1148
1058. Patrap
4:12 PM GMT on June 16, 2012
I,..?

LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
1057. AussieStorm
4:11 PM GMT on June 16, 2012
Quoting Ameister12:
It wouldn't be surprising at all if Guchol does begin an EWRC sometime soon.

People of the Philippines have no idea how lucky they are right now. Guchol would of killed 100's and caused billions in peso's in destruction.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15961
1056. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:10 PM GMT on June 16, 2012
good day bloggers
hope it a good day
i am having morning coffee here
slept in a little today
the c storm is a depression
don't those mountains work wunders

lets have a scan see what
i can find to do next
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54798
1055. LargoFl
4:09 PM GMT on June 16, 2012
(news report,7 hours old).............Typhoon Guchol is forecast to strike Japan at about 13:00 GMT on 19 June.Data supplied by theUS Navy and Air Force Joint Typhoon Warning Centersuggest that the point of landfallwill benear32.7 N,136.1 E.Guchol is expected to bring 1-minute maximum sustained winds to the region of around175 km/h (109 mph).Wind gusts in the area maybeconsiderably higher.

According to the Saffir-Simpson damage scale the potential property damage and flooding from a storm ofGuchol'sstrength (category 2)at landfall includes:
•Storm surge generally 1.8-2.4 metres (6-8 feet) above normal.
•Some roofing material, door, and window damage of buildings.
•Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some trees blown down.
•Considerable damage to mobile homes, poorly constructed signs, and piers.
•Coastal and low-lying escape routes flood 2-4 hours before arrival of the storm center.
•Small craft in unprotected anchorages break moorings.
There is also the potential for flooding further inland due to heavy rain.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40751
1054. Patrap
4:05 PM GMT on June 16, 2012


WAVEtrak Atlantic, CIMSS
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
1053. washingtonian115
4:05 PM GMT on June 16, 2012
Quoting ilovehurricanes12:
wow!!
Nice lil 'ol wave.Dry air cooler sst and shear will be waiting for it.Just something to look at for now.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17472
1052. Ameister12
4:05 PM GMT on June 16, 2012
It wouldn't be surprising at all if Guchol does begin an EWRC sometime soon.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5070
1051. pcola57
4:04 PM GMT on June 16, 2012
African wave train starting to get going...here are some current images...



Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6876
1050. LargoFl
4:02 PM GMT on June 16, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40751
1049. TropicalAnalystwx13
4:01 PM GMT on June 16, 2012
Quoting beell:


Not even when the monsoon trough becomes active in this part of the basin and begins to lift north?

Wow, who knew? Thanks!

I was talking about the monsoon low in itself. :P
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32501
1048. beell
3:59 PM GMT on June 16, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Never.


Not even when the monsoon trough becomes active in this part of the basin and begins to lift north?

Wow, who knew? Thanks!
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 144 Comments: 16858
1047. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:59 PM GMT on June 16, 2012
Lol GFS.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32501
1046. wxmod
3:58 PM GMT on June 16, 2012
Quoting pcola57:
Metosat-9..Africa dust...not very much right now..


If you can see it looking straight down, it's enough to reduce the lapse rate. It's possible to have a storm develop, but it will take a very deep low.
Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1765
1045. caribbeantracker01
3:58 PM GMT on June 16, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Oh, you mean the monsoon low? Yeah, it's there all the time. No threat to develop.


well with the up coming moisture surge you can never rule out something to get going the sea surface temps are warm enough but wind shear needs to be a bit more conducive
Member Since: May 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 556
1044. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:57 PM GMT on June 16, 2012
Quoting beell:


never?

Never.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32501
1043. ilovehurricanes12
3:56 PM GMT on June 16, 2012
wow!!
Member Since: February 17, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 331
1042. 7544
3:55 PM GMT on June 16, 2012
Quoting Patrap:
One cant build a tropical system by Blogging.

But we understand.



lol sure we can we have the knowledge we have the hopes, we have the power
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6871
1041. beell
3:55 PM GMT on June 16, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Oh you mean the monsoon low? Yeah, it's there all the time and never develops.


never?
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 144 Comments: 16858
1040. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:54 PM GMT on June 16, 2012
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys I just reviewed the rgb loop and there is a very strong but broad spin in the SW caribbean also noted on surface obs and 12Z surface map also has convection in the area needs to keep an eye on it

Oh, you mean the monsoon low? Yeah, it's there all the time. No threat to develop.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32501
1039. Patrap
3:51 PM GMT on June 16, 2012
One cant build a tropical system by Blogging.

But we understand.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
1038. pcola57
3:50 PM GMT on June 16, 2012
Metosat-9..Africa dust...not very much right now..

Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6876
1037. wunderkidcayman
3:50 PM GMT on June 16, 2012
hey guys I just reviewed the rgb loop and there is a very strong but broad spin in the SW caribbean also noted on surface obs and 12Z surface map also has convection in the area needs to keep an eye on it
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12316
1036. sunlinepr
3:46 PM GMT on June 16, 2012
Quoting pcola57:


That eye is incredible..
probably 100(?) miles of pure hell in there.


Wave height should be 80 feet or higher.... a big chaos....

Very different of these conditions.... but maybe the same height (90ft. surfed)...

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9874
1035. MAweatherboy1
3:44 PM GMT on June 16, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
:(.
Quoting Tazmanian:



so marh for high wind shear lol

I thought it was much higher than that actually... Once it gets near Japan there's a ton of shear but before that it isn't too bad... There is dry air though, that's why there's much more convection on the south side of the system.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7923
1034. wxmod
3:44 PM GMT on June 16, 2012
Quoting sunlinepr:


round 2
Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1765
1033. MAweatherboy1
3:43 PM GMT on June 16, 2012
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7923
1032. Tazmanian
3:41 PM GMT on June 16, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1:





so marh for high wind shear lol
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115341
1031. washingtonian115
3:41 PM GMT on June 16, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1:


:(.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17472
1030. wxmod
3:38 PM GMT on June 16, 2012
Africa dust today. MODIS

Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1765
1029. sunlinepr
3:38 PM GMT on June 16, 2012
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9874

Viewing: 1079 - 1029

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
55 °F
Overcast