Tropical Storm Carlotta forms in the East Pacific

By: Angela Fritz , 5:25 PM GMT on June 14, 2012

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Tropical Storm Carlotta has formed in the East Pacific, and is heading northwest toward the west coast of Mexico, where impacts are expected to begin on Friday. Carlotta has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph gusting to 55 mph. A hurricane hunter mission is tentatively scheduled for 2pm EDT on Friday. Carlotta's rain is visible on Puerto Ánoel's radar this afternoon. The storm appears to be well-vented, with high-level outflow apparent on satellite, and thunderstorms firing on all sides of the storm's center. The storm is currently in an area of low wind shear, however, shear will likely increase as the storm moves north. Sea surface temperature under Carlotta is slightly above average—around 30°C (86°F)—and is expected to remain around there for the next few days. These conditions are favorable for strengthening. Tropical Storm Carlotta is the 3rd tropical cyclone and named storm in the basin, and is the 5th earliest formation of the season's 3rd storm. The earliest 3rd storm formation on record is June 7th: a record tied by Hurricane Connie of 1974 and Tropical Storm Carlos of 1985.


Visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Carlotta taken at 11am EDT on Thursday.

Forecast for Carlotta
Tropical Storm Carlotta is expected to continue on its path northwest over the next few days, as it approaches the western coast of Mexico, near Acapulco. Most of the reliable track models agree with this (GFS, GFDL, HWRF, UKMET). The GFS ensemble members are basically in agreement with NHC track, however, some ensembles are still suggesting that Carlotta's energy could jump the gap and transfer into the Gulf of Mexico early next week, which is an unlikely solution. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Carlotta to reach hurricane status on Friday. This intensification, though quick, will be short-lived as the cyclone interacts with land. Granted, the intensity of this system depends heavily on how close to the coast it gets. The mountains of western Mexico can tear apart a tropical storm or weak hurricane with ease. In any case, Carlotta is expected to bring heavy rain to an area prone to flash flooding and landslides.

Meanwhile, in the Atlantic
No tropical cyclone activity is expected in the next couple of days, though some models are suggesting an easterly wave could develop into a weak tropical cyclone in the western Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico next week.

Angela

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You're slow. I read it three minutes ago.

Anyways, I'm out. I'll have a new blog out tomorrow morning.


Yeah, go to bed kid. It's way past your bedtime. Now shoo!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Meh, you're slow. I read it three minutes ago.


For real. I read it on Facebook 5 minutes ago.
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Meh, you're slow. I read it three minutes ago.


You F5 for me?

*blushes*
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Quoting KoritheMan:
Just for you, Cody.

You're slow. I read it three minutes ago.

Anyways, I'm out. I'll have a new blog out tomorrow morning.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31537
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
T.C.F.W.
03E/H/C/C1

Looks like we have a rapidly intensifying cyclone.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31537
867. hamla
bob breck said on local wx at 10:15pm local in nola that their might be something devoloping gom next week
so things might start to get going in atlantic tropical season.the sea temps in gom are getting a little toastie.and its still spring, go figure
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Just for you, Cody.
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Derived from (NHC) ATCF data for TropicalStormCarlotta for 15June12amGMT:
Its vector had changed from NNWest at 11.8mph(19km/h) to NWest at 9.8mph(15.8km/h)
MaxSusWinds had increased from 45knots(52mph)83km/h to 55knots(63mph)102km/h
And minimum pressure had decreased from 999millibars to 994millibars

For those who like to visually track TS.Carlotta's path...
PNO is Pinotepa :: PXM is PuertoEscondido,Oaxaca :: HUX is Huatulco :: TAP is Tapachula

The WNWesternmost dot on the kinked line is where Invest94E became TropicalDepression3E
The next dot NWest on the connected line-segment is where TD3E became TropicalStormCarlotta
The SEasternmost dot on the longest line-segment was TS.Carlotta's most recent position

The longest line-segment is a straightline-projection through TS.Carlotta's 2 most recent positions to the coastline.
The PXM*blob was the endpoint of the 14June12pmGMT straightline*projection connected to its closest airport.
The HUX-blob was the endpoint of the 14June6pmGMT straightline projection connected to its closest airport.
On 15June12amGMT, TS.Carlotta was headed toward passage over PuertoEscondido in ~1day5hours from now

Copy&paste zlo, pno-16.534n98.883w, pxm-15.828n97.048w, hux-15.688n96.332w, tap, mgsj, sal, 8.1n90.0w- 8.4n90.7w- 8.7n91.6w- 9.2n92.4w, 9.2n92.4w-9.8n92.9w, 9.8n92.9w-10.5n93.4w, 10.5n93.4w-11.4n93.9w, 11.4n93.9w-12.1n94.4w, 11.4n93.9w-15.916n97.190w the GreatCircleMapper for more information.
The previous mapping for comparison.

* For the 14June6pmGMT ATCF, 9.9n93.0w was re-evaluated&altered to 9.8n92.9w on. So an incorrect vector(direction&speed) was calculated for 14June12pmGMT from using the original incorrect position.
Through recalculation using the correct position, the vector was corrected to reflect that change.
BUT the original incorrect vector also produced an incorrect straightline projection leading to an incorrect endpoint on the PXM-blob
Nonetheless I am reposting the PXM-blob to maintain historicity with the previous map.
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Goodnight everyone... Be back saturday...
Very busy Friday ahead of me, and I should've been asleep hours ago.
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XXL/AOI/XX
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting wxmod:
This satellite data shows heavy dust and pollution in red spanning the Atlantic. As deserts grow, they make more dust. There probably won't be an Atlantic hurricane unless this dust settles.

There is always dust at the start of "Every" hurricane season is normal, big tropical waves help push the sahara dust towards the atlantic but some years are more dry than others :)Satellite image of the West African coast from June 21, 2008, at 14:50 GMT
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


NYU

Though I'm still stuck in high school. I'm planning for somewhere up in North Texas.
My family would kill me if I went to Texas tech so, after 2 years at Texas state
I'll probably finish up at OU, CSU(probably not but you can always dream :P), or Texas A&M
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BOC ON INV WATCH
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
T.C.F.W.
03E/H/C/C1
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
857. wxmod
This satellite data shows heavy dust and pollution in red spanning the Atlantic. As deserts grow, they make more dust. There probably won't be an Atlantic hurricane unless this dust settles.

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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
off topic guys... but in soooo excited!

I'M GRADUATING TOMORROW FROM HIGH SCHOOL AND I'M ALSO ONE OF THE VALEDICTORIANS


Im soooo proud of myself. can't waIt
Congrats:) I will give you a glass of milk and a bag full of Oreo.
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Did you get my wundermail message? Just curious :P

Yeah.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31537
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Waiting for you blog Kori...

Did you get my wundermail message? Just curious :P
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853. wxmod
Satellite views of China today. MODIS Each view is 320 miles across. The lines are political boundaries. This has been going on, and getting worse, for about 20 years now.There is no end to it. There is no reason the whole world won't look like this someday. Hesitate before you buy that new computer, new TV. Do you really need it that bad that you would never see blue sky ever again.



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Quoting CosmicEvents:
Thank you Taz.
Very funny.



welcome
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Waiting for you blog Kori...


Almost done.
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Quoting tropicfreak:


Congrats! You're one smart cookie! :P.

Now it's time to step out into the real world. What are your plans for college?


NYU
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
off topic guys... but in soooo excited!

I'M GRADUATING TOMORROW FROM HIGH SCHOOL AND I'M ALSO ONE OF THE VALEDICTORIANS


Im soooo proud of myself. can't waIt


Congrats! You're one smart cookie! :P.

Now it's time to step out into the real world. What are your plans for college?
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Waiting for you blog Kori...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31537
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Thank you Taz.
Very funny.
people do crazy things and i've seen some crazies
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Credit to wxrisk.com


Yep saw that... quite speechless.

Ya know what? Let the photo do the talking.
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Quoting bohonkweatherman:
We have no rain in our forecast and our drought situation has moved to Moderate and Severe in my area, No rain here in over 30 days with near 100 degree temps, grass is pretty brown around here unless you are watering.
you want some rain boman
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting Methurricanes:
Congrats, but that is a late graduation, the last week for senoirs around here is usually the last week in May.


Around here it's late may into early june then the following week graduations.

About 2 more years till I'll be moving my tassel.

Class of 2014 woot woot!
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Quoting bohonkweatherman:
We have no rain in our forecast and our drought situation has moved to Moderate and Severe in my area, No rain here in over 30 days with near 100 degree temps, grass is pretty brown around here unless you are watering.


My part of Louisiana just over the Texas border has been getting storms every afternoon the past week or so. I don't think we're in the drought now at all. I hope you guys get some rain soon.
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Quoting MTWX:


Or what about the Arctic Hurricanes that pummel Alaska every year??!!
The Difference is one effects 8,000,000 people one effects 8,000.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
Connecticut man calls 911 over errant deli sandwich order


Link
Thank you Taz.
Very funny.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
off topic guys... but in soooo excited!

I'M GRADUATING TOMORROW FROM HIGH SCHOOL AND I'M ALSO ONE OF THE VALEDICTORIANS


Im soooo proud of myself. can't waIt

Congratulations!
Hope I'm you one day lol :)
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Does anyone but me see the swirl in the GOM near the panhandle?


it's just some weak low level vort attached to the front, nbd.
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Quoting Methurricanes:
Congrats, but that is a late graduation, the last week for senoirs around here is usually the last week in May.


Hurricane Irene make-up week... we have to cover 180 days by law here in CT
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837. MTWX
Quoting Methurricanes:
What I think is dumb, is people overreact to a storm getting named, its all over the news when a 45mph Tropical storm makes landfall, but ignored when 60-65mph nor-easter whacks New England, and often with Hurricane force gusts at the coast.


Or what about the Arctic Hurricanes that pummel Alaska every year??!!
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Quoting aislinnpaps:


I think you're right. Better than a drought at least.
We have no rain in our forecast and our drought situation has moved to Moderate and Severe in my area, No rain here in over 30 days with near 100 degree temps, grass is pretty brown around here unless you are watering.
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The squall line entering Kansas is freaking crazy, I'd say expect some serious winds with that, also expect easily flash floods because PWAT's are as high as 1.8 just ahead of that line you'll see rainfall that is heavier than normal.


Needless to say driving through that tonight would be a weeeee bit scary, lol.
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Connecticut man calls 911 over errant deli sandwich order


Link
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


yeah...a long one
Congrats, but that is a late graduation, the last week for senoirs around here is usually the last week in May.
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Quoting Methurricanes:
What I think is dumb, is people overreact to a storm getting named, its all over the news when a 45mph Tropical storm makes landfall, but ignored when 60-65mph nor-easter whacks New England, and often with Hurricane force gusts at the coast.


Trust me, you're not alone, I've always been frustrated by that...
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Congrats. I'm attending a graduation tomorrow... unfortunately none of my relatives will be the valedictorian... are you giving a speech?


yeah...a long one
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
off topic guys... but in soooo excited!

I'M GRADUATING TOMORROW FROM HIGH SCHOOL AND I'M ALSO ONE OF THE VALEDICTORIANS


Im soooo proud of myself. can't waIt

Congratulations! =D
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Congrats. I'm attending a graduation tomorrow... unfortunately none of my relatives will be the valedictorian... are you giving a speech?
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
off topic guys... but in soooo excited!

I'M GRADUATING TOMORROW FROM HIGH SCHOOL AND I'M ALSO ONE OF THE VALEDICTORIANS


Im soooo happy.can't waIt


Congratulations! That's really great for you, I have zero chance of being a valedictorian next year though though due to my freshman grades lol!
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
off topic guys... but in soooo excited!

I'M GRADUATING TOMORROW FROM HIGH SCHOOL AND I'M ALSO ONE OF THE VALEDICTORIANS


Im soooo proud of myself. can't waIt


Cool! Congrats.
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ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM CAROLTTA
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 75--
A. 15/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0103E CARLOTTA
C. 15/1315Z
D. 13.9N 96.2W
E. 15/1700Z TO 15/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
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I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM CAROLTTA
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 75--
A. 15/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0103E CARLOTTA
C. 15/1315Z
D. 13.9N 96.2W
E. 15/1700Z TO 15/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP
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off topic guys... but in soooo excited!

I'M GRADUATING TOMORROW FROM HIGH SCHOOL AND I'M ALSO ONE OF THE VALEDICTORIANS


Im soooo proud of myself. can't waIt
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Quoting RitaEvac:


Gonna play a role in less than 24 hrs across the south, due to outflow boundaries and the works, especially with a large complex such as this. Betting for some storm redevelopment somewhere out there


I think you're right. Better than a drought at least.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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