Tropical Storm Carlotta forms in the East Pacific

By: Angela Fritz , 5:25 PM GMT on June 14, 2012

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Tropical Storm Carlotta has formed in the East Pacific, and is heading northwest toward the west coast of Mexico, where impacts are expected to begin on Friday. Carlotta has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph gusting to 55 mph. A hurricane hunter mission is tentatively scheduled for 2pm EDT on Friday. Carlotta's rain is visible on Puerto Ánoel's radar this afternoon. The storm appears to be well-vented, with high-level outflow apparent on satellite, and thunderstorms firing on all sides of the storm's center. The storm is currently in an area of low wind shear, however, shear will likely increase as the storm moves north. Sea surface temperature under Carlotta is slightly above average—around 30°C (86°F)—and is expected to remain around there for the next few days. These conditions are favorable for strengthening. Tropical Storm Carlotta is the 3rd tropical cyclone and named storm in the basin, and is the 5th earliest formation of the season's 3rd storm. The earliest 3rd storm formation on record is June 7th: a record tied by Hurricane Connie of 1974 and Tropical Storm Carlos of 1985.


Visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Carlotta taken at 11am EDT on Thursday.

Forecast for Carlotta
Tropical Storm Carlotta is expected to continue on its path northwest over the next few days, as it approaches the western coast of Mexico, near Acapulco. Most of the reliable track models agree with this (GFS, GFDL, HWRF, UKMET). The GFS ensemble members are basically in agreement with NHC track, however, some ensembles are still suggesting that Carlotta's energy could jump the gap and transfer into the Gulf of Mexico early next week, which is an unlikely solution. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Carlotta to reach hurricane status on Friday. This intensification, though quick, will be short-lived as the cyclone interacts with land. Granted, the intensity of this system depends heavily on how close to the coast it gets. The mountains of western Mexico can tear apart a tropical storm or weak hurricane with ease. In any case, Carlotta is expected to bring heavy rain to an area prone to flash flooding and landslides.

Meanwhile, in the Atlantic
No tropical cyclone activity is expected in the next couple of days, though some models are suggesting an easterly wave could develop into a weak tropical cyclone in the western Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico next week.

Angela

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Quoting JLPR2:


Thank you!

No problem...good night everyone!
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i lov accuweather... but they have to improve their graphics
i can't even put up a pic of Carlotta...
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is this what you're smiling at?

Link

Quoting AtHomeInTX:
NOGAPS ummm, don't know how to explain it. :) Link
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920. JLPR2
Quoting nigel20:

Congratulations to her (your sister)...


Thank you!
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Quoting allancalderini:
Carlotta will probably be a strengthening hurricane tomorrow that I wake up.good night people


yeah IKD why they said it will have by tomorrow afternoon...
it's just 4 mh away...
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Carlotta will probably be a strengthening hurricane tomorrow that I wake up.good night people btw this is my 111 comment on this wiki.
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Quoting JLPR2:


Had to go back a few pages to see what it was about. Congrats on a awesome accomplishment!

All I did during my High school graduation was read a poem. Simple. XD

I'm going to a graduation myself later today, my sister officially finished her master's degree.

Congratulations to her (your sister)...
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916. JLPR2
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
off topic guys... but in soooo excited!

I'M GRADUATING TOMORROW FROM HIGH SCHOOL AND I'M ALSO ONE OF THE VALEDICTORIANS


Im soooo proud of myself. can't waIt


Had to go back a few pages to see what it was about. Congrats on an awesome accomplishment!

All I did during my High school graduation was read a poem. Simple. XD

I'm going to a graduation myself later today, my sister officially finished her master's degree.
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000
WTPZ33 KNHC 150542
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032012
1100 PM PDT THU JUN 14 2012

...CARLOTTA NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 95.0W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


MX watch out for this one
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...CARLOTTA NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...
11:00 PM PDT Thu Jun 14
Location: 12.8°N 95.0°W
Moving: NNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 993 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph
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Hmmmm...lol







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911. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #3
TROPICAL STORM BUTCHOY (GUCHOL)
11:00 AM PhST June 15 2012
================================================

Tropical Storm "BUTCHOY" has slightly intensified as it continues to move in a west northwest direction

At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Storm Butchoy (Guchol) located at 10.3°N 131.0°E or 510 km east southeast of Guiuan, eastern Samar has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 8 knots.

Additional Information
========================

Estimated rainfall amount is from 15-25 mm per hour (heavy) within the 400 km diameter of the tropical storm.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the seaboards of Luzon, Visayas and northeastern Mindanao due to big waves generated by the effect of the southwest monsoon and Tropical Storm "BUTCHOY".

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today or earlier unless changes occur.
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Quoting canehater1:
Forecast says low shear and Positive MJO late next week in Carib and S. Gulf ...Maybe what long range models are latching onto...?


Looks that way.
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NOGAPS ummm, don't know how to explain it. :) Link
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Quoting TomTaylor:
Congrats, I graduated two days ago myself.

By the way, are you giving a speech? The valedictorian at my school gave an awesome, hilarious speech contrasting carpe diem's use in Roman times to the use of the phrase YOLO in modern times.


yeah, a long one. i hope i don't mess up
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Forecast says low shear and Positive MJO late next week in Carib and S. Gulf ...Maybe what long range models are latching onto...?
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
That's my favorite team! Miami Heat all the way! Ironic that these two teams the Heat and Thunder deal with everyday weather events.

Yes,that's quite ironic....
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Quoting nigel20:
The NBA playoffs is now tied 1-1...Much better performance by the Miami heat today!
That's my favorite team! Miami Heat all the way! Ironic that these two teams the Heat and Thunder deal with everyday weather events.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Yep thanks. :) My part of TX up on the Louisiana border has had enough to take us out of the drought. But boy out to the south and west they sure can use it! That would be a blessing to them!

Yes, definitely!
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Quoting nigel20:

Yeah, you guys really need it (rain)!


Yep thanks. :) My part of TX up on the Louisiana border has had enough to take us out of the drought. But boy out to the south and west they sure can use it! That would be a blessing to them!
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Exactly what I was thinking. Hope it happens that way. :)

Yeah, you guys really need it (rain)!
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The NBA playoffs is now tied 1-1...Much better performance by the Miami heat today!
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Quoting TXCWC:
Brownsville, TX landfall on 0Z GFS run and welcome rainfall. Would be a great scenerio for South/South Central Texas. Tropical rains without the destructive winds.





Exactly what I was thinking. Hope it happens that way. :)
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I also have to say that the GFS has been pretty consistent with just about everything of the past 2 day of runs.

Link

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Quoting cheaterwon:
Man that is one of the biggest cloud blow ups I have ever seen. From nothing to half the country in 4 hours.

Link


Just think what Yellowstone will do, in less time...
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Quoting wxmod:


This year, dust storms have been going for two months straight and all tropical waves that become the least bit interesting go flat when they hit the wall of dust. The dust your photo shows goes a few hundred miles off shore. The dust today crosses the Atlantic.
Also normal for this time of the year. Nov 2007 similar conditions to june and the dust storm travel all the way across the atlantic.
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Good evening/night everyone!
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892. TXCWC
Brownsville, TX landfall on 0Z GFS run and welcome rainfall. Would be a great scenerio for South/South Central Texas. Tropical rains without the destructive winds.



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Man that is one of the biggest cloud blow ups I have ever seen. From nothing to half the country in 4 hours.

Link
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
you want some rain boman


They're in dire need
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887. wxmod
Quoting Gearsts:
There is always dust at the start of "Every" hurricane season is normal, big tropical waves help push the sahara dust towards the atlantic but some years are more dry than others :)Satellite image of the West African coast from June 21, 2008, at 14:50 GMT


This year, dust storms have been going for two months straight and all tropical waves that become the least bit interesting go flat when they hit the wall of dust. The dust your photo shows goes a few hundred miles off shore. The dust today crosses the Atlantic.
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I have just updated my tropical Atlantic blog...much to say about nuthin though (for now)....
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This is what Central TX needs



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Stick with weather thank you!
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
off topic guys... but in soooo excited!

I'M GRADUATING TOMORROW FROM HIGH SCHOOL AND I'M ALSO ONE OF THE VALEDICTORIANS


Im soooo proud of myself. can't waIt
Congrats, I graduated two days ago myself.

By the way, are you giving a speech? The valedictorian at my school gave an awesome, hilarious speech contrasting carpe diem's use in Roman times to the use of the phrase YOLO in modern times.
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Good Night - Stay Safe - Sleep Well
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Night all.
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Also Carlotta getting in the mood for a eye?



That image is extremely old.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I think we're starting to see an eye peak out on Guchol... by the looks of this it will be an epic pinhole



Also Carlotta getting in the mood for a eye?

Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5248
GRAPHICS UPDATE
(click to enlarge)

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Quoting MississippiWx:


I awaited anxiously on Facebook...no F5-ing.


y u no fun :(

f5's da bomb dude

lololololo
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Quoting KoritheMan:


You F5 for me?

*blushes*


I awaited anxiously on Facebook...no F5-ing.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You're slow. I read it three minutes ago.

Anyways, I'm out. I'll have a new blog out tomorrow morning.


Yeah, go to bed kid. It's way past your bedtime. Now shoo!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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