Tropical Storm Carlotta forms in the East Pacific

By: Angela Fritz , 5:25 PM GMT on June 14, 2012

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Tropical Storm Carlotta has formed in the East Pacific, and is heading northwest toward the west coast of Mexico, where impacts are expected to begin on Friday. Carlotta has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph gusting to 55 mph. A hurricane hunter mission is tentatively scheduled for 2pm EDT on Friday. Carlotta's rain is visible on Puerto Ánoel's radar this afternoon. The storm appears to be well-vented, with high-level outflow apparent on satellite, and thunderstorms firing on all sides of the storm's center. The storm is currently in an area of low wind shear, however, shear will likely increase as the storm moves north. Sea surface temperature under Carlotta is slightly above average—around 30°C (86°F)—and is expected to remain around there for the next few days. These conditions are favorable for strengthening. Tropical Storm Carlotta is the 3rd tropical cyclone and named storm in the basin, and is the 5th earliest formation of the season's 3rd storm. The earliest 3rd storm formation on record is June 7th: a record tied by Hurricane Connie of 1974 and Tropical Storm Carlos of 1985.


Visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Carlotta taken at 11am EDT on Thursday.

Forecast for Carlotta
Tropical Storm Carlotta is expected to continue on its path northwest over the next few days, as it approaches the western coast of Mexico, near Acapulco. Most of the reliable track models agree with this (GFS, GFDL, HWRF, UKMET). The GFS ensemble members are basically in agreement with NHC track, however, some ensembles are still suggesting that Carlotta's energy could jump the gap and transfer into the Gulf of Mexico early next week, which is an unlikely solution. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Carlotta to reach hurricane status on Friday. This intensification, though quick, will be short-lived as the cyclone interacts with land. Granted, the intensity of this system depends heavily on how close to the coast it gets. The mountains of western Mexico can tear apart a tropical storm or weak hurricane with ease. In any case, Carlotta is expected to bring heavy rain to an area prone to flash flooding and landslides.

Meanwhile, in the Atlantic
No tropical cyclone activity is expected in the next couple of days, though some models are suggesting an easterly wave could develop into a weak tropical cyclone in the western Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico next week.

Angela

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Well Look at the CMC, Nogaps, and Euro this morning. Looks like developement of Chris may occur in the Caribbean and not the Gulf.

Euro 10 day


CMC at day 5.


Nogaps



CMC day 9
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
FXUS62 KTBW 150656
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
256 AM EDT FRI JUN 15 2012

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - SUNDAY)...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ATLANTIC EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO
FLORIDA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC SOUTH TO
THE NORTHERN GULF AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OVER THE
ATLANTIC AROUND 70W. AS FOR TODAY A VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL TEAM UP WITH AMPLE MOISTURE...A
WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PENINSULA AND
THE SEA BREEZES TO PRODUCE AN ACTIVE DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST STORM
COVERAGE AND POPS ARE LIKELY TO SET UP ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF
THE I-4 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WILL
RESIDE. IN ADDITION AN INCREASING NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL HELP
TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS.

TONIGHT THE CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN DURING THE EVENING
WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. DURING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY A DRIER SUBSIDENT AIRMASS
WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION ON A BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW.
THIS DRIER AIR WILL SUPPORT MUCH LOWER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS (POPS 20 PERCENT AT BEST)
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS (POPS LESS THAN 20
PERCENT) ON SUNDAY. THE OFFSHORE WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES TO RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 90S WITH NEAR NORMAL LOWS IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...
U/L RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA
MONDAY...WITH HEIGHTS GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL HOLD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH EASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW EACH DAY. COMBINATION OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE...
DRY AIR ALOFT...SLIGHTLY LOWER SURFACE DEW POINTS...AND EASTERLY
FLOW WILL ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE CLIMATIC
NORMALS WITH SOME REGIONS REACHING THE MID AND POSSIBLY UPPER 90S.
MOS GUIDANCE ALTHOUGH ABOVE NORMAL...APPEARS SEVERAL DEGREES TOO
LOW WITH MAX TEMPS. DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR VERY LOW POPS EACH DAY...WITH
PREDOMINATELY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER NEAR
THE COAST IN THE TAMPA BAY AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LCL MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS. SCT CU 035-045 DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING WITH SCT
TO NMRS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
BEST AREAL COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE FROM TPA TO SRQ...BUT WILL EXTEND
SOUTH TO FMY/RSW. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CREATE AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH LCL IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL WATERS THIS
MORNING WILL SINK SOUTH OF THE WATERS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST. BEHIND THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST TO EAST AND INCREASE
LATER TODAY WITH EXERCISE CAUTION OR LOW END ADVISORY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OFFSHORE WATERS BY LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. EASTERLY WINDS WILL THEN BE THE RULE
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN EVENING SURGE OF WINDS LIKELY
EACH DAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS NORTH OF THE WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
INCREASING TRANSPORT WINDS WILL PRODUCE HIGH DISPERSION INDICES
ACROSS LEVY COUNTY TODAY. OTHER THAN THIS SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS TODAY
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH NO OTHER FIRE WEATHER ISSUES
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 89 72 91 73 / 60 20 20 20
FMY 91 72 91 72 / 60 20 20 20
GIF 89 71 90 71 / 50 20 20 10
SRQ 89 72 91 71 / 60 20 20 20
BKV 89 66 91 66 / 40 20 20 20
SPG 87 75 89 75 / 60 20 20 20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...57/MCMICHAEL
LONG TERM/AVIATION...13/OGLESBY






Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41628
Quoting LargoFl:
gulf temps in the mid to high temps now

Yep. Expect upper 80's at the surface with TCHP values near 2010 in the GOM come Aug-Oct. Plenty of fuel.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41628
Quoting InconvenientStorm:
We'll see a spike in the number of storms later this summer. Just wait until August.
gulf temps in the mid to high temps now
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41628
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We'll see a spike in the number of storms later this summer. Just wait until August.
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....................looks like Houston might get a little today
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41628
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good morning... 6z GFS:



Gulf development remains far from a certainty at this point as models over the last day or so have not been as aggressive with the potential system as in previous days.

Intensity forecasts are virtually useless until an LLC is born.
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2006 was especially bad because I think so many people were anticipating something similar to 2005.
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Miami NWS Discussion

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH ALONG
THE U.S. EAST COAST KEEPS ANY DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE S INTO
THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THE LONG TERM MODELS THOUGH INDICATE
THAT LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE W GULF OF MEX MAY AID IN PULLING
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE N AND OVER S FLA BY MID WEEK THAT WILL
PERSIST INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. WILL MAINTAIN GUIDANCE
POPS UNTIL THIS BECOMES MORE CLARIFIED BUT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
COULD BE MUCH WETTER.
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Quoting altesticstorm2012:
Yikes at this inactivity, I really didn't want this year to be another bust like 2006/2009...

2010 wasn't all that exciting either. I didn't think.
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105 mph


70mph
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Central Kansas:

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This is most likely a hurricane right now

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7995

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7995
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41628
Good morning... 6z GFS:



Gulf development remains far from a certainty at this point as models over the last day or so have not been as aggressive with the potential system as in previous days.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7995
...........hmmm maybe Today the Tampa shields go down and we get some rain?
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41628
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41628
949. beell
Quoting bigwes6844:
It seems pretty weird but who was having the runs going into louisiana?


It happens. Spicey food, long hours behind the wheel, disrupted sleep patterns-can all combine to make a road trip memorable for all the wrong reasons.

...or maybe i should read back.
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Quoting trunkmonkey:


Next weekend, June 23rd, I'm going to be on the west coast of Florida, waiting for future models to show if I need to leave my motorcycle at home or not?

Lookin for comments on next weekends weather!
..................if i remember right, it also showed a week ago, of one hitting tampa THIS weekend,nada,nothing..wait until something does form
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41628
Quoting Stormchaser121:
GFS shows something coming from the caribbean heading towards the western gulf coast...Is this right??


Next weekend, June 23rd, I'm going to be on the west coast of Florida, waiting for future models to show if I need to leave my motorcycle at home or not?

Lookin for comments on next weekends weather!
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Quoting bigwes6844:
It seems pretty weird but who was having the runs going into louisiana?


I think the GFS showed that a couple days ago? NOGAPS latest looked like something was headed your way.
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Some rain headed this way?

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM EDT THU JUN 14 2012

GULF OF MEXICO...
BUOYS OFF THE TEXAS COAST INDICATE SE WINDS TO 20 KT...BETWEEN
1017 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF NEAR
27N87W...AND TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AREAS OF
CONVECTION ARE NOTED OVER THE NE GULF...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA TO 29N88W. THE 00Z
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS WELL STACKED DEEP LAYER TROUGHING OVER
THE FAR NE GULF SUPPORTING THE SURFACE TROUGH. A WEAK SURFACE
LOW MAY BE TRYING TO FORM ALONG THE TROUGH IN ACCORDANCE WITH
THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFS/UKMET/ECMWF...ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT
CLEARLY DISCERNIBLE AS YET IN THE SURFACE DATA.
FURTHER
SOUTH...THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL WAVE ARE MIGRATING THROUGH
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WITH THE MAIN
ENERGY BEING ABSORBED INTO THE BROAD CYCLONIC OF T.S CARLOTTA
CHURNING S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN THE PACIFIC. LATE
EVENING CONVECTION OVER YUCATAN HAS DIMINISHED...BUT EXPECT
PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH AT
LEAST SUN AS BROAD TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE.

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THROUGH LATE SAT IS A BLEND OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOWING THE SURFACE HIGH BREAKING DOWN AHEAD OF A WEAK
TROUGH MIGRATING WEST FROM THE NE GULF THROUGH THE N CENTRAL
GULF. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SE RETURN FLOW OFF THE TEXAS COAST TO
DIMINISH THROUGH LATE FRI...AND SUPPORT E 15 TO 20 KT FLOW OVER
THE N CENTRAL GULF BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND HIGH PRES OVER
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE TROUGH
AMPLIFYING SLIGHTLY BY SUN AS IT MOVES INTO THE NW GULF...AND COMES INTO PHASE WITH A STATIONARY TROUGH OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES
INTO TEXAS BY MON.
..AS A RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE CAROLINAS TO THE
CENTRAL GULF. THIS ALLOWS MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE FLOW ACROSS
THE ENTIRETY OF THE GULF OUTSIDE OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MON AND
TUE. SEAS WILL BUILD FROM 3 TO 5 FT MON TO 4 TO 6 FT TUE OVER
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF IN THE INCREASE E TO SE FLOW.
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The rain keeps on falling in the Northern GOM

Link
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
thanks to the following for plussing my post #824


Congratulations! (I don't think my browser settings let me work the +, -, ! etc)
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Derived from (NHC) ATCF data for TropicalStormCarlotta for 15June6amGMT:
11.4n93.9w, 12.1n94.4w have been re-evaluated&altered
11.4n94.0w, 12.1n94.5w, 12n8n95.0w are now the most recent positions

Its vector remained unchanged: NWest at 9.8mph(15.8km/h)
MaxSusWinds had increased from 55knots(63mph)102km/h to 60knots(69mph)111km/h
And minimum pressure had decreased from 994millibars to 993millibars

For those who like to visually track TS.Carlotta's path...
PNO is Pinotepa :: PXM is PuertoEscondido,Oaxaca :: HUX is Huatulco :: TAP is Tapachula

The dot on the bottom edge of the map is where Invest94E became TropicalDepression3E
The next dot NWest on the connected line-segment is where TD3E became TropicalStormCarlotta
The SEasternmost dot on the longest line-segment was TS.Carlotta's most recent position

The longest line-segment is a straightline-projection through TS.Carlotta's 2 most recent positions to the coastline.
The HUX*blob was the endpoint* of the 14June6pmGMT straightline*projection connected to its closest airport.
The PXM*blob was the endpoint* of the 15June12amGMT straightline*projection connected to its closest airport.
On 15June6amGMT, TS.Carlotta was headed toward passage between Lagunas de Chacahua and PuertoEscondido in ~25hours from now

Copy&paste pvr, zlo, 16.534n98.883w, pno, 15.828n97.048w- pxm- 15.916n97.190w, hux-15.688n96.332w, tap, mgsj, cun, 9.2n92.4w-9.8n92.9w, 9.8n92.9w-10.5n93.4w, 10.5n93.4w-11.4n94.0w, 11.4n94.0w-12.1n94.5w, 12.1n94.5w-12.8n95.0w, 12.1n94.5w-15.939n97.282w into the GreatCircleMapper for more information.
The previous mapping for comparison.

* For the 15June6amGMT ATCF, 11.4n93.9w and 12.1n94.4w were re-evaluated&altered to 11.4n94.0w, 12.1n94.5w . So 2 incorrect vectors(directions&speeds) were calculated for 14June6pmGMT and 15June12amGMT from using the original incorrect positions.
Through recalculation using the correct position, the vectors were corrected to reflect that change.
BUT the 2 original incorrect vectors also produced 2 incorrect straightline projectionw leading to 2 incorrect endpoints on the HUX-blob and PXM-blob
Nonetheless I am reposting the HUX-blob and PXM-blob to maintain historicity with the previous map.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Hi Wes. :) Yes looks like there there will be some sort of system in the gulf. Or BOC. The EURO has been pretty consistent keeping a monster high on top of the system and sending it into Mexico. But as we know that all could change especially since there's no storm yet.
It seems pretty weird but who was having the runs going into louisiana?
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Quoting bigwes6844:
Wow im back! I see there could be a potential storm in the GOM? AtHomeInTx wats going on??????????????????????????????


Hi Wes. :) Yes looks like there there will be some sort of system in the gulf. Or BOC. The EURO has been pretty consistent keeping a monster high on top of the system and sending it into Mexico. But as we know that all could change especially since there's no storm yet.
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a little something for south/central texas coast.
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5243
Wow im back! I see there could be a potential storm in the GOM? AtHomeInTx wats going on??????????????????????????????
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GFS shows something coming from the caribbean heading towards the western gulf coast...Is this right??
Member Since: September 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1149
looks like alot of moistue in from a previous tropical system. Thats the track they take. Head west and then curve by Okina/Japan and head back east towards alaska
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5243
And I wish that big cold front out in the pacific would head southeast to Southern Cal where I am,but alas it will not happen
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5243
Me thinks the models may have hit the bottle
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5243
A bigger perspective
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Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5243
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


LOL....this ones not sure either


I know I'm not sure about what they show. Lol.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Hmmmm...lol









LOL....this ones not sure either
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5243
Quoting allancalderini:
Carlotta will probably be a strengthening hurricane tomorrow that I wake up.good night people btw this is my 111 comment on this wiki.


Lets hope Carlotta stays offshore
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5243
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
NOGAPS ummm, don't know how to explain it. :) Link


I dont think it does either......lol
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5243
Quoting evilpenguinshan:
is this what you're smiling at?

Link



Well yeah but also how it got there. It seemed to brought together a lot of different vorts, I guess, including one it spins up in the Caribbean. Now I'm wondering if maybe that's what the CMC was showing too. But they never came together on that model.
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Quoting sunlinepr:




Would you post link please?
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5243
Quoting JLPR2:


Thank you!

No problem...good night everyone!
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8412

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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