Tropical Storm Carlotta forms in the East Pacific

By: Angela Fritz , 5:25 PM GMT on June 14, 2012

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Tropical Storm Carlotta has formed in the East Pacific, and is heading northwest toward the west coast of Mexico, where impacts are expected to begin on Friday. Carlotta has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph gusting to 55 mph. A hurricane hunter mission is tentatively scheduled for 2pm EDT on Friday. Carlotta's rain is visible on Puerto Ánoel's radar this afternoon. The storm appears to be well-vented, with high-level outflow apparent on satellite, and thunderstorms firing on all sides of the storm's center. The storm is currently in an area of low wind shear, however, shear will likely increase as the storm moves north. Sea surface temperature under Carlotta is slightly above average—around 30°C (86°F)—and is expected to remain around there for the next few days. These conditions are favorable for strengthening. Tropical Storm Carlotta is the 3rd tropical cyclone and named storm in the basin, and is the 5th earliest formation of the season's 3rd storm. The earliest 3rd storm formation on record is June 7th: a record tied by Hurricane Connie of 1974 and Tropical Storm Carlos of 1985.


Visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Carlotta taken at 11am EDT on Thursday.

Forecast for Carlotta
Tropical Storm Carlotta is expected to continue on its path northwest over the next few days, as it approaches the western coast of Mexico, near Acapulco. Most of the reliable track models agree with this (GFS, GFDL, HWRF, UKMET). The GFS ensemble members are basically in agreement with NHC track, however, some ensembles are still suggesting that Carlotta's energy could jump the gap and transfer into the Gulf of Mexico early next week, which is an unlikely solution. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Carlotta to reach hurricane status on Friday. This intensification, though quick, will be short-lived as the cyclone interacts with land. Granted, the intensity of this system depends heavily on how close to the coast it gets. The mountains of western Mexico can tear apart a tropical storm or weak hurricane with ease. In any case, Carlotta is expected to bring heavy rain to an area prone to flash flooding and landslides.

Meanwhile, in the Atlantic
No tropical cyclone activity is expected in the next couple of days, though some models are suggesting an easterly wave could develop into a weak tropical cyclone in the western Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico next week.

Angela

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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Carlotta



Guchol



Just goes to show what a strong MJO pulse can do.
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Carlotta is going to make landfall in 7 hrs. if it dosnt change it speed and direction real fast. Doesn't it look that way to all of you?

Link
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 203
Carlotta



Guchol

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Has anyone seen Levi?
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1018. wxmod
Typhoon Guchol is on track for Fukushima. But don't be surprised if the Japanese bust up this storm before it gets there.
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1016. ncstorm
Looks like two storms in the GOM at the same time??
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16225
1015. yqt1001
It seems like every EPac storm has a 50/50 chance of RI.



Possibly for a 3rd time in 12 months Mexico will be threatened by a MH (Jova, Bud and Carlotta?), which is amazing considering they get landfalls so rarely on the EPac side.
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1014. wxmod
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Quick correction. 2007 had the lowest ice extent (almost beaten last year). Ice volume has been dropping pretty much every year for some time now.

Last year is the current record holder for lowest ice volume, and so far this year looks like it will easily beat 2011 for lowest ice volume.


Thanks for the correction. I didn't look it up before I commented.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
looks like the MJO is goning to be thru the end of June.




Morning All.

Personally thinking we'll get two systems out of this MJO pulse. One in the NW Caribbean/Gulf region and one in the Western Atlantic towards the end of the month.
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wow
Quoting DavidHOUTX:
This is interesting...

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This is interesting...

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06z GFS

Link
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1008. yqt1001
Though I'm not sure how long we'll have a minimal category1 hurricane for...

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1007. yqt1001
And here is why we have a hurricane:

15/1145 UTC 13.6N 95.5W T4.0/4.0 CARLOTTA -- East Pacific
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Quoting wxmod:


2007 was also the year of the lowest arctic ice volume. You are mistaking what is happening the last few years for normal...


Quick correction. 2007 had the lowest ice extent (almost beaten last year). Ice volume has been dropping pretty much every year for some time now.

Last year is the current record holder for lowest ice volume, and so far this year looks like it will easily beat 2011 for lowest ice volume.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


1.71" but that is on top of now 9.68" for the month of June and 15" of rain since mid May. Power was out by me yesterday for about 2 to 3 hours as there were several trees on powerlines.
You've had a pretty active month of so down there.  I seen that you said you had 70 mph wind.  It's been so long I have almost forgot what thunder and lightning sound and look like...sigh...lol
Anyway I see that low level circulation south of Panama City isn't naked anymore.  Something that surely needs to be watched today.
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We gotses ourselves a HURRICANE
EP, 03, 2012061512, , BEST, 0, 136N, 956W, 65, 988, HU, 34, NEQ, 50, 40, 50, 60, 1008, 200, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, CARLOTTA, D,
EP, 03, 2012061512, , BEST, 0, 136N, 956W, 65, 988, HU, 50, NEQ, 40, 20, 20, 30, 1008, 200, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, CARLOTTA, D,
EP, 03, 2012061512, , BEST, 0, 136N, 956W, 65, 988, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 200, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, CARLOTTA, D,
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Quoting MTWX:


We've been watching it ever since it came off the AL Coast a few days ago... Just a weak surface low that has been bringing rain/storms to Florida yesterday and today.

Now if it keeps it's spin up after it crosses FL to the Atlantic side, it may have a chance.


I think this may stay in the Gulf as the door has closed on this crossing FL as a high is trying to build in from the Mid Atlantic.

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1002. wxmod
Quoting Gearsts:
Also normal for this time of the year. Nov 2007 similar conditions to june and the dust storm travel all the way across the atlantic.


2007 was also the year of the lowest arctic ice volume. You are mistaking what is happening the last few years for normal. Anyway, my point with displaying Sahara dust is that hurricanes need clean air to form. If the air is muddy, the temperature difference between sea level and the top of the atmosphere is less, so there is less lift and therefore less cumulus buildup. The atmosphere is becoming stagnant.
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1000. MTWX
Quoting StormTracker2K:
I also would not be surprised to see a new invest South of Panama City Beach over the coming days as this is a interesting feature spining here and it doesn't show up on the models.





We've been watching it ever since it came off the AL Coast a few days ago... Just a weak surface low that has been bringing rain/storms to Florida yesterday and today.

Now if it keeps it's spin up after it crosses FL to the Atlantic side, it may have a chance.
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Quoting ILwthrfan:

Hey 2K how much rain you get from that nasty storm yesterday?


I think with regards to the possible formation of Chris a couple of things need to be taken with a grain of salt with respect to the models. The most important feature is going to be Carlotta and how strong she becomes.  If she's ventilating in all quadrants efficiently then her upper level conditions are going to be play havoc on anything trying to form to her east in the Gulf of Mexico or in the Western Caribbean.  The second factor, which also goes along with the first is what interaction she has with Mexico.  She could very well stay off shore per GDFL or HWFR.  IF that happens, I think if anything is going to happen it would be in the Western Carribbean furtherst 







Action: Quote | Ignore User
Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 365


1.71" but that is on top of now 9.68" for the month of June and 15" of rain since mid May. Power was out by me yesterday for about 2 to 3 hours as there were several trees on powerlines.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Best Track goes up to 65kts.

EP, 03, 2012061512, , BEST, 0, 136N, 956W, 65, 988, HU
Yes, we have Hurricane Carlotta...

EP, 03, 2012061512, , BEST, 0, 136N, 956W, 65, 988, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 200, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, CARLOTTA, D,
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Many of use are always looking for the "surprise" system that models may not have picked up on but that is often a rare ocurrance. I do think however, that the models are better than humans at forecasting cyclogenis with the exception of the tons of "ghost" systems they forecast every season as well. Cyclogenisis and Intensity forecasting is still, however, the exclusive domain of Mother Nature, and a tough nut for us to crack.
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Quoting InconvenientStorm:

Nothing would surprise me at this stage of the game.


That spin has been around for a few days but seems to be getting better organized now. This could become an invest if it can continue to organize some more.
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12z Best Track goes up to 65kts.

EP, 03, 2012061512, , BEST, 0, 136N, 956W, 65, 988, HU
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
That would be something if this actually becomes TS Chris and not the system the models are forecasting several days from now.

Hey 2K how much rain you get from that nasty storm yesterday?

I think with regards to the possible formation of Chris a couple of things need to be taken with a grain of salt with respect to the models. The most important feature is going to be Carlotta and how strong she becomes.  If she's ventilating in all quadrants efficiently then her upper level conditions are going to be play havoc on anything trying to form to her east in the Gulf of Mexico or in the Western Caribbean.  The second factor, which also goes along with the first is what interaction she has with Mexico.  She could very well stay off shore per GDFL or HWFR.  IF that happens, I think if anything is going to happen it would be in the Western Caribbean furthest from her, but if she goes into the mountains of Mexico and dissipates, I think you will see two things happen: one her moisture gets into the gulf and the upper level conditions would be more favorable being that she dissipated, but then you have the coastline playing a factor there too.  Whatever trys to come from this will take a very long time to organize IMO. 





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That would be something if this actually becomes TS Chris and not the system the models are forecasting several days from now.

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991. MahFL
Vote early and vote often !
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I also would not be surprised to see a new invest South of Panama City Beach over the coming days as this is a interesting feature spining here and it doesn't show up on the models.



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looks like the MJO is goning to be thru the end of June.

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Good Morning. Just noting the current shear levels out there at the moment on the Atlantic/Caribbean side of the pond and that the E-Pac is active at the moment. There has been some documented research, by Klotzbach, on an "inverse" activity relationship between the Atlantic Basin and the overlapping season (in the early part of the Summer) on the E-Pac side. We have noted over many past seasons that things start to rev up on the Caribbean side when things are quieter on the E-pac side and much of that is related to the MJO. My point is that some SW Caribbean disturbances this time of the year end up on the E-Pac side of things so not surprising to see the models spinning up systems down there in this time frame. Someone on here will post the MJO charts later today I am sure but I would side with the longer range in terms of Caribbean development until things quiet down in the E-Pac but anything is possible I suppose.

Link
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Quoting icmoore:


Good morning everybody. Yeah Largo a 60% chance of thunderstorms with quarter size hail, frequent lightening, and gusty winds so we will see. Last Sunday afternoon the storms that came in from the gulf south of us were something to see from the beach! I can't remember where but there was some damage that was said to have been caused by straight-line winds. I put a couple pictures up and got my first AC for a cloud picture! Cool :)


North Fort Myers which merged with storms moving into Orlando to produce a tremendous storm over Orlando. Common theme lately.

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Quoting LargoFl:
...........hmmm maybe Today the Tampa shields go down and we get some rain?


Good morning everybody. Yeah Largo a 60% chance of thunderstorms with quarter size hail, frequent lightening, and gusty winds so we will see. Last Sunday afternoon the storms that came in from the gulf south of us were something to see from the beach! I can't remember where but there was some damage that was said to have been caused by straight-line winds. I put a couple pictures up and got my first AC for a cloud picture! Cool :)
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Quoting BobWallace:


More than two-thirds of Americans—including half of Republicans—still blame former President George W. Bush for the country's economic ills, according to a new Gallup poll released on Thursday....

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/americans-bush -still-more-blame-obama-economy-143913248.html

Even half of all Republicans get it....


That would be the un-informed half. Blame is all you guys got because your hero can't run on his record.
Reality bites, huh?
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The eyewall on Carlotta is about 80% complete... Looks like a large eye... Should be a hurricane at 11AM

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5 to 9day
Quoting washingtonian115:
So when the hell is this storm suppose to form?.In the next two weeks or next week?.
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Quoting InconvenientStorm:

Someone is antsy for a storm. LOL. I hear ya, wash. Me too.
It just gets frustrating seeing model runs and nothing out there.The models are also famous for pushing back time.I do believe something will form but when?.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17831
Here's some of the damage pics from yesterday.



A Tree fell on this car


Flooding from nearly 10" of rain now this month.





Pic of storm rolling in.


Tree in pool.


Waterspout over Port Canaveral
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Well Look at the CMC, Nogaps, and Euro this morning. Looks like developement of Chris may occur in the Caribbean and not the Gulf.

Euro 10 day


CMC at day 5.


Nogaps



CMC day 9
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