Tropical Storm Carlotta forms in the East Pacific

By: Angela Fritz , 5:25 PM GMT on June 14, 2012

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Tropical Storm Carlotta has formed in the East Pacific, and is heading northwest toward the west coast of Mexico, where impacts are expected to begin on Friday. Carlotta has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph gusting to 55 mph. A hurricane hunter mission is tentatively scheduled for 2pm EDT on Friday. Carlotta's rain is visible on Puerto Ánoel's radar this afternoon. The storm appears to be well-vented, with high-level outflow apparent on satellite, and thunderstorms firing on all sides of the storm's center. The storm is currently in an area of low wind shear, however, shear will likely increase as the storm moves north. Sea surface temperature under Carlotta is slightly above average—around 30°C (86°F)—and is expected to remain around there for the next few days. These conditions are favorable for strengthening. Tropical Storm Carlotta is the 3rd tropical cyclone and named storm in the basin, and is the 5th earliest formation of the season's 3rd storm. The earliest 3rd storm formation on record is June 7th: a record tied by Hurricane Connie of 1974 and Tropical Storm Carlos of 1985.


Visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Carlotta taken at 11am EDT on Thursday.

Forecast for Carlotta
Tropical Storm Carlotta is expected to continue on its path northwest over the next few days, as it approaches the western coast of Mexico, near Acapulco. Most of the reliable track models agree with this (GFS, GFDL, HWRF, UKMET). The GFS ensemble members are basically in agreement with NHC track, however, some ensembles are still suggesting that Carlotta's energy could jump the gap and transfer into the Gulf of Mexico early next week, which is an unlikely solution. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Carlotta to reach hurricane status on Friday. This intensification, though quick, will be short-lived as the cyclone interacts with land. Granted, the intensity of this system depends heavily on how close to the coast it gets. The mountains of western Mexico can tear apart a tropical storm or weak hurricane with ease. In any case, Carlotta is expected to bring heavy rain to an area prone to flash flooding and landslides.

Meanwhile, in the Atlantic
No tropical cyclone activity is expected in the next couple of days, though some models are suggesting an easterly wave could develop into a weak tropical cyclone in the western Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico next week.

Angela

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1073. Grothar
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
models forecasted cat 3 will close to the coast when it gets there seems


See, I was right again.
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Interesting to say the least. I remember a small system like this that developed in August 2009 in this same area but can't remember the name though.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
1071. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Grothar:
Nice eye. I'm no expert, but this could possible, maybe, almost, theoretically reach Cat 3 status.

models forecasted cat 3 will close to the coast when it gets there seems
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56053
1070. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Grothar:
It looks like we have a pre-blob in the NW Caribbean. Exactly where I said it would be.



afternoon you blob forecaster

when ya coming back or are ya back already

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56053
1069. etxwx
Small Earthquake in North Texas
"CLEBURNE, Texas (AP) - Experts said North Texas has had a 3.1-magnitude earthquake. The U.S. Geological Survey said the quake happened just after 2 a.m. Friday. USGS said the earthquake was centered 11 miles north-northeast of Cleburne, or about 16 miles south of Fort Worth. No damage or injuries were immediately reported."

There have been a number of small quakes in that general area lately. It's a bit unusual.

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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


EVENT DETECTED

Small event



That sunspot is a monster though... It's the size of Jupiter.
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1067. Grothar
Nice eye. I'm no expert, but this could possible, maybe, almost, theoretically reach Cat 3 status.

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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

It might be mentioned by the nhc, but timing and shear will likely disable it from forming into a tropical cyclone.
Slap me with dead crow, if I'm wrong...


If anything this may sit in the Gulf and drift around for several days.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
New advisory on Guchol is out. It is at 90kts (105mph) and forecast to make Cat 4 intensity before weakening as it heads into Tokyo still as a hurricane

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Roald Amundsen, a Norwegian explorer who successfully navigated the Northwest Passage on August 26, 1905 (h/t Walt Bennett, Jr.):
The North West Passage was done.
My boyhood dream - at that moment it was accomplished. A strange
feeling welled up in my throat; I was somewhat over-strained and worn -
it was weakness in me - but I felt tears in my eyes. 'Vessel in sight' ... Vessel in sight.
Yes,
ladies and gentlemen, this Passage was clear enough of ice for a wooden
sailboat, with a crew of seven, to successfully navigate it more than
100 years ago. How many times in the history of the planet do you think a
similar - or even more ice-free - condition existed in this area? Not that the media cares, but this Passage was also conquered several times in the 1940s (emphasis added):
Built
for the Royal Canadian Mounted Police Force to serve as a supply ship
for isolated, far-flung Arctic RCMP detachments, St. Roch was also
designed to serve when frozen in for the winter, as a floating
detachment, with its constables mounting dog sled patrols from the ship.
Between 1929 and 1939 St. Roch made three voyages to the Arctic. Between 1940 and 1942 St. Roch navigated the Northwest Passage, arriving in Halifax harbor on October 11, 1942. St. Roch was the second ship to make the passage, and the first to travel the passage from west to east. In 1944, St. Roch returned to Vancouver via the more northerly route of the Northwest Passage, making her run in 86 days. The epic voyages of St. Roch
demonstrated Canadian sovereignty in the Arctic during the difficult
wartime years, and extended Canadian control over its vast northern
territories.

Read more: http://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sheppard/2007/0 9/09/reports-record-arctic-ice-melt-disgracefully- ignore-history#ixzz1xs0HZK6C
Quoting InconvenientStorm:

Has the Arctic even been ice free before?

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Quoting StormTracker2K:
This low is getting better organized with each passing hour now that thunderstorms have blown up over the center.



It might be mentioned by the nhc, but timing and shear will likely disable it from forming into a tropical cyclone.
Slap me with dead crow, if I'm wrong...
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1062. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)


EVENT DETECTED
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56053
1060. MTWX
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

He does live in Alaska, ya know! :P
He probably won't be on for another hour or two, it's 6:41 am there.


Actually it would be 5:41 am...

Alaska has its own time zone.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
XXL/AOI/XX


I think the invest tag goes up on this over the next 12 to 24 hours. Looks impressive on visible image you posted.
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1058. Patrap


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

The problem with this is that, when the Japanese try to avoid this disaster, it will result in several other disasters in other parts of the world. You don't mess with the atmosphere!

Don't listen to him... The Japanese cannot and will not do anything to affect this storm. The high shear and cooler waters it will encounter will affect it, but it will still pack a major punch and there's nothing Japan can do about it.
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1056. Patrap
Blob-ation?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
1055. wxmod
Quoting InconvenientStorm:

Sounds cool to me. Let's stop hurricanes now. Let's stop destruction.

*snicker*


Problem is, you won't end destruction. Hurricanes are a necessary part of the atmosphere. Stagnation is at the opposite end of the spectrum. That's where we're heading.
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1054. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
XXL/AOI/XX
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56053
1053. Grothar
It looks like we have a pre-blob in the NW Caribbean. Exactly where I said it would be.

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Quoting StormTracker2K:
This low is getting better organized with each passing hour now that thunderstorms have blown up over the center.



I don't think that's a tropical low.
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Quoting wxmod:


Not cool at all. Weather modification is big, big business. If you pay close attention to the satellite photos, maybe you'll be lucky enough to catch a glimpse of the rockets they seed with. Aluminum oxide falling through the atmosphere does wonders.

The problem with this is that, when the Japanese try to avoid this disaster, it will result in several other disasters in other parts of the world. You don't mess with the atmosphere!
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1048. MTWX
Quoting DavidHOUTX:
This is interesting...



Hope that doesn't pan out! Scheduled to be fishing in Biloxi that weekend!
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

He does live in Alaska, ya know! :P
He probably won't be on for another hour or two, it's 6:41 am there.

Thank you!
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This low is getting better organized with each passing hour now that thunderstorms have blown up over the center.


Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
1044. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
T.C.F.W.
R.I. FLAG FLAG
ON APPROACH
03E/H/C/C1
MARK
13.33N/95.43W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56053
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Quoting STXHurricanes2012:
He isn't banned look at the current time....probably asleep!

He does live in Alaska, ya know! :P
He probably won't be on for another hour or two, it's 6:41 am there.
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What part of a busy does he not have? lol
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CARLOTTA's eye now visible from the Puerto Angel Radar
Link
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1039. wxmod
Quoting InconvenientStorm:

Cool. How would the Japanese achieve this?


Not cool at all. Weather modification is big, big business. If you pay close attention to the satellite photos, maybe you'll be lucky enough to catch a glimpse of the rockets they seed with. Aluminum oxide falling through the atmosphere does wonders.
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Quoting ILwthrfan:
You've had a pretty active month of so down there.  I seen that you said you had 70 mph wind.  It's been so long I have almost forgot what thunder and lightning sound and look like...sigh...lol
Anyway I see that low level circulation south of Panama City isn't naked anymore.  Something that surely needs to be watched today.


Maybe you get some rain today. There was a nasty line of storms from MN to the Texas/Mexico border.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
New microwave of Guchol




Pinhole!
Good morning everyone.
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He isn't banned look at the current time....probably asleep!
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Quoting Houstonweathergrl:
Has anyone seen Levi?
Maybe he got banned for posting his website on his blogg or he is enjoying his own site more then this one.
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1033. wxmod
Quoting belizeit:
I doupt many years will surpass this year with arctic ice loss if trends continue we'll see no ice by the end of summer. Ocean temp are rising rapidly and the winds are pushing the ice into the warm water.


Scary thought, isn't it. Once the ice cube is gone, anything can happen.
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Quoting belizeit:
I doupt many years will surpass this year with arctic ice loss if trends continue we'll see no ice by the end of summer. Ocean temp are rising rapidly and the winds are pushing the ice into the warm water.

Arcitc sea ice extent has plummeted in the last few weeks, well below 2007

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1030. wxmod
Quoting InconvenientStorm:

You mean intentionally destroy it?

That is what I meant. Watch the storm carefully.
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New microwave of Guchol



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Quoting wxmod:


2007 was also the year of the lowest arctic ice volume. You are mistaking what is happening the last few years for normal. Anyway, my point with displaying Sahara dust is that hurricanes need clean air to form. If the air is muddy, the temperature difference between sea level and the top of the atmosphere is less, so there is less lift and therefore less cumulus buildup. The atmosphere is becoming stagnant.
I doupt many years will surpass this year with arctic ice loss if trends continue we'll see no ice by the end of summer. Ocean temp are rising rapidly and the winds are pushing the ice into the warm water.
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Quoting altesticstorm2012:
Yikes at this inactivity, I really didn't want this year to be another bust like 2006/2009...


Yeah, that would be horrible. No oil platforms threatened, no major impact on our economy, no catastrophic damage, no life's lost. Yeah, what a bummer that would be.
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Definitely looking interesting.



Relatively low shear environment too.

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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Carlotta



Guchol



Just goes to show what a strong MJO pulse can do.
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