Tropical Storm Carlotta forms in the East Pacific

By: Angela Fritz , 5:25 PM GMT on June 14, 2012

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Tropical Storm Carlotta has formed in the East Pacific, and is heading northwest toward the west coast of Mexico, where impacts are expected to begin on Friday. Carlotta has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph gusting to 55 mph. A hurricane hunter mission is tentatively scheduled for 2pm EDT on Friday. Carlotta's rain is visible on Puerto Ánoel's radar this afternoon. The storm appears to be well-vented, with high-level outflow apparent on satellite, and thunderstorms firing on all sides of the storm's center. The storm is currently in an area of low wind shear, however, shear will likely increase as the storm moves north. Sea surface temperature under Carlotta is slightly above average—around 30°C (86°F)—and is expected to remain around there for the next few days. These conditions are favorable for strengthening. Tropical Storm Carlotta is the 3rd tropical cyclone and named storm in the basin, and is the 5th earliest formation of the season's 3rd storm. The earliest 3rd storm formation on record is June 7th: a record tied by Hurricane Connie of 1974 and Tropical Storm Carlos of 1985.


Visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Carlotta taken at 11am EDT on Thursday.

Forecast for Carlotta
Tropical Storm Carlotta is expected to continue on its path northwest over the next few days, as it approaches the western coast of Mexico, near Acapulco. Most of the reliable track models agree with this (GFS, GFDL, HWRF, UKMET). The GFS ensemble members are basically in agreement with NHC track, however, some ensembles are still suggesting that Carlotta's energy could jump the gap and transfer into the Gulf of Mexico early next week, which is an unlikely solution. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Carlotta to reach hurricane status on Friday. This intensification, though quick, will be short-lived as the cyclone interacts with land. Granted, the intensity of this system depends heavily on how close to the coast it gets. The mountains of western Mexico can tear apart a tropical storm or weak hurricane with ease. In any case, Carlotta is expected to bring heavy rain to an area prone to flash flooding and landslides.

Meanwhile, in the Atlantic
No tropical cyclone activity is expected in the next couple of days, though some models are suggesting an easterly wave could develop into a weak tropical cyclone in the western Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico next week.

Angela

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Quoting ILwthrfan:

How much will this effect her track with the steering patterns?  Little to none?  Or was the HWRF which had her stronger than the other models also kept her off shore doing a loop d loop.


HWRF has had a recent upgrade in resolution and is much more accurate this year than in recent, and it was calling for something like this to happen for days.
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What a beautiful storm:



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Quoting ILwthrfan:

How much will this effect her track with the steering patterns? Little to none? Or was the HWRF which had her stronger than the other models also kept her off shore doing a loop d loop.

It will increase chances of landfall i think
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6473
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Probably a Category 2 right now, very rapid intensification going on.


Fortunate that the plane is on route and we will know how strong she is.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14221
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I bet it's farther than that... It's a big storm with a big eye... Guchol is stronger but has a very tiny eye with hurricane winds extending out about 40 miles... Carlotta is weaker but bigger so I would say probably about the same as Guchol, 40 miles or so.


yes but this just became a hurricane
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6473
Their remnants

Main article: Mesoscale convective vortex
A mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) is a mid-level low-pressure center within an MCS that pulls winds into a circling pattern, or vortex. Once the parent MCS dies, this vortex can persist and lead to future convective development. With a core only 30 miles (48 km) to 60 miles (97 km) and up to 8 kilometres (5.0 mi) deep,[33] an MCV can occasionally spawn a mesoscale surface low pressure area which appears on mesoscale surface weather analyses. But an MCV can take on a life of its own, persisting for up to several days after its parent MCS has dissipated.[34] The orphaned MCV will sometimes then become the seed of the next thunderstorm outbreak. An MCV that moves into tropical waters, such as the Gulf of Mexico, can serve as the nucleus for a tropical storm or hurricane.[35]
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Probably a Category 2 right now, very rapid intensification going on.
How much will this effect her track with the steering patterns?  Little to none?  Or was the HWRF which had her stronger than the other models also kept her off shore doing a loop d loop.
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1116. hydrus
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

It might be mentioned by the nhc, but timing and shear will likely disable it from forming into a tropical cyclone.
Slap me with dead crow, if I'm wrong...
Oh no ya dont..You have to eat the crow, not get b-slapped withit....mornin Dean..:)
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Probably a Category 2 right now, very rapid intensification going on.


from like a 70 mph storm to an amazing cane
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6473
Quoting weatherh98:


technically its still a tropical storm but i would say 10-20 miles out

I bet it's farther than that... It's a big storm with a big eye... Guchol is stronger but has a very tiny eye with hurricane winds extending out about 40 miles... Carlotta is weaker but bigger so I would say probably about the same as Guchol, 40 miles or so.
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Where do you think will be its pre-landfall?

way too early to say
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11794
1112. yqt1001
Quoting weatherh98:


when were these last updated? because thats only like 82 mph


1 hour ago:

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Probably a Category 2 right now, very rapid intensification going on.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.3 4.8 6.2

Link


when were these last updated? because thats only like 82 mph
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6473
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Interesting to say the least. I remember a small system like this that developed in August 2009 in this same area but can't remember the name though.



Claudette.
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Quoting Grothar:
It looks like we have a pre-blob in the NW Caribbean. Exactly where I said it would be.



Where do you think will be its pre-landfall?
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Quoting InconvenientStorm:


She's rather large, MAWxBoy. Do you know how far out her hurricane force wind radius extents to?


technically its still a tropical storm but i would say 10-20 miles out
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6473
Quoting weatherh98:


What are the T numbers?


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.3 4.8 6.2

Link
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1105. yqt1001
Quoting weatherh98:


What are the T numbers?


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.4 / 981.0mb/ 74.6kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.3 4.8 6.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 14 km

Center Temp : -0.1C Cloud Region Temp : -68.0C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION
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Derived from (NHC) ATCF data for HurricaneCarlotta for 15June12pmGMT:
Its vector had changed from NWest at 9.8mph(15.8km/h) to NWest at 11.4mph(18.3km/h)
MaxSusWinds had increased from 60knots(69mph)111km/h to 65knots(75mph)120km/h
And minimum pressure had decreased from 993millibars to 988millibars

For those who like to visually track H.Carlotta's path...
PNO is Pinotepa :: PXM is PuertoEscondido,0axaca :: HUX is Huatulco :: TAP is Tapachula

The dot on the bottom edge of the map is where Invest94E became TropicalDepression3E
The next dot NWest on the connected line-segment is where TD3E became TropicalStormCarlotta
The SEasternmost dot on the longest line-segment is where TS.Carlotta became HurricaneCarlotta and was its most recent position

The longest line-segment is a straightline-projection through H.Carlotta's 2 most recent positions to the coastline.
The PXM-blob were the endpoints of the 15June12amGMT and 15June6amGMT straightline projections connected to their closest airport.
On 15June12pmGMT, H.Carlotta was headed toward passage between Lagunas de Chacahua and PuertoEscondido in ~15hours from now

Copy&paste pvr, zlo, 16.534n98.883w, pno, 15.939n97.282w-15.828n97.048w- pxm-15.916n97.190w, hux-15.688n96.332w, tap, mgsj, cun, 9.2n92.4w-9.8n92.9w, 9.8n92.9w-10.5n93.4w, 10.5n93.4w-11.4n94.0w, 11.4n94.0w-12.1n94.5w, 12.1n94.5w-12.8n95.0w, 12.8n95.0w-13.6n95.6w, 12.8n95.0w-15.939n97.381w into the GreatCircleMapper for more information.
The previous mapping for comparison.
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Quoting fireflymom:
Roald Amundsen, a Norwegian explorer who successfully navigated the Northwest Passage on August 26, 1905 (h/t Walt Bennett, Jr.):
The North West Passage was done.
My boyhood dream - at that moment it was accomplished. A strange
feeling welled up in my throat; I was somewhat over-strained and worn -
it was weakness in me - but I felt tears in my eyes. 'Vessel in sight' ... Vessel in sight.
Yes,
ladies and gentlemen, this Passage was clear enough of ice for a wooden
sailboat, with a crew of seven, to successfully navigate it more than
100 years ago. How many times in the history of the planet do you think a
similar - or even more ice-free - condition existed in this area? Not that the media cares, but this Passage was also conquered several times in the 1940s (emphasis added):
Built
for the Royal Canadian Mounted Police Force to serve as a supply ship
for isolated, far-flung Arctic RCMP detachments, St. Roch was also
designed to serve when frozen in for the winter, as a floating
detachment, with its constables mounting dog sled patrols from the ship.
Between 1929 and 1939 St. Roch made three voyages to the Arctic. Between 1940 and 1942 St. Roch navigated the Northwest Passage, arriving in Halifax harbor on October 11, 1942. St. Roch was the second ship to make the passage, and the first to travel the passage from west to east. In 1944, St. Roch returned to Vancouver via the more northerly route of the Northwest Passage, making her run in 86 days. The epic voyages of St. Roch
demonstrated Canadian sovereignty in the Arctic during the difficult
wartime years, and extended Canadian control over its vast northern
territories.

Read more: http://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sheppard/2007/0 9/09/reports-record-arctic-ice-melt-disgracefully- ignore-history#ixzz1xs0HZK6C



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Member Since: June 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 414

It pays to realize, of course, that the Northwest Passage wasn't exactly "open" for Amundsen's voyage through it; the trip took him and his crew nearly three years, much of that time with the ship stuck fast in ice. And the route Amundsen chose was through a commercially-unviable set of shallows, which tend to melt earlier than the open sea.

The truth is--that is, the scientific truth--is that the Arctic hasn't had as little ice as it has now for at least 8,000 years--and possibly far, far longer than that.
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1102. hydrus
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I'm going to go with 80 kts for the next advisory on Carlotta. I also think she could make major status if she continues this RI trend.
I suspected that she would become a major( water is very warm ), but she will have to do it rather quickly as she is nearing land.
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Quoting InconvenientStorm:


She's rather large, MAWxBoy. Do you know how far out her hurricane force wind radius extents to?

She is quite large for sure... We don't really have any way of knowing yet because she's still a TS as of the last advisory... We'll know in half an hour when the 11AM advisory is out.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I'm very interested in what the NHC will do with the intensity of Carlotta at 11AM... 12z best track said 75mph but it's obviously strengthened since then... I'd say that has winds of about 90mph right now.



What are the T numbers?
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6473
1099. yqt1001
Carlotta is no doubt going to be a bad storm...EPac hurricane landfalls are rare enough.



It's almost too late for her to pull a Don and Mexico only receives EPac hurricane landfalls once every 5 years or so.
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Quoting ILwthrfan:

That thing was only a naked swirl over Mobile two days ago.  It has been lingering for two days now in Gulf of Mexico which is loaded with heat and moisture and is also on a tail end of a front, which at this time of year is climatology favored spot for development.  While it may have not started with tropical characteristics it certainly has taken a few steps toward it.  There is absolutely no reason at all why it can't make that transition in the conditions its in.


and it would more likely be an Mesoscale convective vortex more thananything. The nhc should just circle it and say near 0 % because of the reasons you stated
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6473


I'm going to go with 80 kts for the next advisory on Carlotta. I also think she could make major status if she continues this RI trend.
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I'm very interested in what the NHC will do with the intensity of Carlotta at 11AM... 12z best track said 75mph but it's obviously strengthened since then... I'd say that has winds of about 90mph right now.

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Quoting Grothar:
Nice eye. I'm no expert, but this could possible, maybe, almost, theoretically reach Cat 3 status.



This maybe Rapid Intensification
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6473
I agree with you all too! Nothing to worry about just an MCS!
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

That low isn't tropical at all though, lol. They have no reason to tag it.
That thing was only a naked swirl over Mobile two days ago.  It has been lingering for two days now in Gulf of Mexico which is loaded with heat and moisture and is also on a tail end of a front, which at this time of year is climatology favored spot for development.  While it may have not started with tropical characteristics it certainly has taken a few steps toward it.  There is absolutely no reason at all why it can't make that transition in the conditions its in.
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Quoting cheaterwon:




Hey it looks more impressive than Bonnie from a couple years back.lol:p

That's not hard.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Small event



That sunspot is a monster though... It's the size of Jupiter.

I'm personally thankful that sunspot #1504 is showing a proclivity for popping off long-duration events, rather than quick ones. The long-duration flare yesterday, if compressed into a quick flare, would have easily reached X status.
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Quoting jeffs713:

Looks more like an MCS to me.




Hey it looks more impressive than Bonnie from a couple years back.lol:p
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1087. MTWX
ELECTRIC-BLUE NOCTILUCENT CLOUDS: Data from NASA's AIM spacecraft show that noctilucent clouds (NLCs) are like a great "geophysical light bulb." They turn on every year in late spring, reaching almost full intensity over a period of no more than 5 to 10 days. News flash: The bulb is glowing. Flying photographer Brian Whittaker photographed these NLCs over Canada on June 13th:





"I was very happy to see my first noctilucent clouds of 2012," says Whittaker. "They were visible to the north for about 3 hours as we flew between Ottawa and Newfoundland at 35,000 feet."

These electric-blue clouds are hanging 85 km above Earth's surface, at the edge of space itself. Their origin is still largely a mystery; various theories associate them with space dust, rocket exhaust, global warming--or some mixture of the three. One thing is sure. They're baaack ... for the summer of 2012.

Observing tips: NLCs favor high latitudes, although they have been sighted as far south as Colorado and Virginia. Look west 30 to 60 minutes after sunset when the Sun has dipped 6o to 16o below the horizon. If you see luminous blue-white tendrils spreading across the sky, you may have spotted a noctilucent cloud.

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Quoting StormTracker2K:
This low is getting better organized with each passing hour now that thunderstorms have blown up over the center.



Looks more like an MCS to me.
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Quoting ILwthrfan:

I think we will see one before the end of the day for sure, especially if those thunderstorms maintain.  That will be the key to it getting tagged.  

That low isn't tropical at all though, lol. They have no reason to tag it.
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Lots of dinosaur bones and footprints there, hmmm.
Quoting etxwx:
Small Earthquake in North Texas
"CLEBURNE, Texas (AP) - Experts said North Texas has had a 3.1-magnitude earthquake. The U.S. Geological Survey said the quake happened just after 2 a.m. Friday. USGS said the earthquake was centered 11 miles north-northeast of Cleburne, or about 16 miles south of Fort Worth. No damage or injuries were immediately reported."

There have been a number of small quakes in that general area lately. It's a bit unusual.


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Would be interesting if Tampa was menaced from the NW instead of the SW.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


I think the invest tag goes up on this over the next 12 to 24 hours. Looks impressive on visible image you posted.
I think we will see one before the end of the day for sure, especially if those thunderstorms maintain.  That will be the key to it getting tagged.  
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Reminds me a little of TD 5 of 2010 on the second loop.

Tropical Depression 5 2010



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1080. Walshy
NC House votes to legalize fracking
Form of natural gas drilling approved 66-43


RALEIGH, N.C. - The North Carolina House has approved a form of natural gas drilling critics say will contaminate groundwater.

The drilling method known as fracking was endorsed by a 66-43 vote in the House on Thursday evening. The measure has sped through the Legislature in less than two weeks, and the bill now returns to the Senate for consideration of minor amendments.

The hydraulic fracturing drilling method involves injecting a drilled well with chemicals, water and sand at high speed to break up shale rock deep underground and free trapped natural gas. Environmentalists worry the drilling has not been thoroughly studied and could lead to groundwater contamination, earthquakes and flammable drinking water. Supporters say the bill will help the state harvest domestic energy and create new jobs.


Read more: http://www.wxii12.com/news/local-news/north-caroli na/NC-House-votes-to-legalize-fracking/-/10622650/ 14866834/-/5c7nxvz/-/index.html#ixzz1xs41Xww5
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Quoting tropicfreak:


Claudette?


Thank you. That's it.


Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I don't think that's a tropical low.


Yeah and I wouldn't worry about it turning tropical until it gets cut off around Bermuda early next week.:)
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
Interesting to say the least. I remember a small system like this that developed in August 2009 in this same area but can't remember the name though.



Claudette?
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6876
Pat, plane is on route.

URNT15 KNHC 151354
AF305 0103E CARLOTTA HDOB 07 20120615
134630 2726N 09143W 3598 08320 0395 -240 -240 299018 019 004 001 05
134700 2724N 09144W 3598 08320 0395 -240 -240 303018 019 003 002 05
134730 2723N 09146W 3598 08320 0395 -240 -240 304019 020 002 001 01
134800 2721N 09148W 3598 08320 0395 -240 -240 301020 020 002 000 01
134830 2719N 09150W 3598 08320 0395 -240 -240 300019 020 003 001 05
134900 2717N 09151W 3598 08320 0396 -240 -240 300019 019 003 001 01
134930 2715N 09153W 3597 08323 0397 -240 -240 297019 019 003 001 01
135000 2713N 09155W 3597 08324 0397 -240 -240 299019 020 004 000 01
135030 2711N 09157W 3597 08324 0397 -230 -230 301019 019 002 000 01
135100 2709N 09158W 3598 08320 0396 -230 -230 303020 020 005 000 01
135130 2707N 09200W 3597 08322 0396 -230 -230 303020 020 003 001 01
135200 2707N 09200W 3597 08322 0397 -230 -230 303020 020 007 000 01
135230 2703N 09204W 3599 08319 0396 -230 -230 305019 019 007 000 01
135300 2701N 09205W 3598 08322 0398 -230 -230 306019 020 004 001 01
135330 2659N 09207W 3597 08324 0398 -230 -230 303020 021 008 001 01
135400 2657N 09209W 3599 08321 0398 -230 -230 301021 022 008 001 01
135430 2655N 09211W 3597 08326 0399 -230 -230 300023 024 005 001 05
135500 2653N 09212W 3598 08322 0399 -230 -230 299022 023 003 001 01
135530 2651N 09214W 3598 08323 0400 -230 -230 304019 020 003 001 01
135600 2650N 09216W 3598 08326 0400 -230 -230 304019 020 003 000 01
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14221
blob in W carib
models such as the CMC, GFS, NOGAP, NAM, and a couple of others do forecast a low in the area
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11794
1074. MTWX
Forecasted impact of CME
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1073. Grothar
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
models forecasted cat 3 will close to the coast when it gets there seems


See, I was right again.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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