Tropical Storm Carlotta forms in the East Pacific

By: Angela Fritz , 5:25 PM GMT on June 14, 2012

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Tropical Storm Carlotta has formed in the East Pacific, and is heading northwest toward the west coast of Mexico, where impacts are expected to begin on Friday. Carlotta has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph gusting to 55 mph. A hurricane hunter mission is tentatively scheduled for 2pm EDT on Friday. Carlotta's rain is visible on Puerto Ánoel's radar this afternoon. The storm appears to be well-vented, with high-level outflow apparent on satellite, and thunderstorms firing on all sides of the storm's center. The storm is currently in an area of low wind shear, however, shear will likely increase as the storm moves north. Sea surface temperature under Carlotta is slightly above average—around 30°C (86°F)—and is expected to remain around there for the next few days. These conditions are favorable for strengthening. Tropical Storm Carlotta is the 3rd tropical cyclone and named storm in the basin, and is the 5th earliest formation of the season's 3rd storm. The earliest 3rd storm formation on record is June 7th: a record tied by Hurricane Connie of 1974 and Tropical Storm Carlos of 1985.


Visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Carlotta taken at 11am EDT on Thursday.

Forecast for Carlotta
Tropical Storm Carlotta is expected to continue on its path northwest over the next few days, as it approaches the western coast of Mexico, near Acapulco. Most of the reliable track models agree with this (GFS, GFDL, HWRF, UKMET). The GFS ensemble members are basically in agreement with NHC track, however, some ensembles are still suggesting that Carlotta's energy could jump the gap and transfer into the Gulf of Mexico early next week, which is an unlikely solution. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Carlotta to reach hurricane status on Friday. This intensification, though quick, will be short-lived as the cyclone interacts with land. Granted, the intensity of this system depends heavily on how close to the coast it gets. The mountains of western Mexico can tear apart a tropical storm or weak hurricane with ease. In any case, Carlotta is expected to bring heavy rain to an area prone to flash flooding and landslides.

Meanwhile, in the Atlantic
No tropical cyclone activity is expected in the next couple of days, though some models are suggesting an easterly wave could develop into a weak tropical cyclone in the western Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico next week.

Angela

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Quoting weatherh98:


The ADJ t# has it around 90mph


Look at the latest update:

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 JUN 2012 Time : 134500 UTC
Lat : 13:51:23 N Lon : 95:46:33 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 977.4mb/ 79.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.6 5.7 6.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 19 km

Center Temp : 6.6C Cloud Region Temp : -66.0C

Scene Type : EYE

This will be a major hurricane soon I'm afraid.

Call me a hype man if you wish, but I've seen this before.

Look at this beautiful 37 gHz image from earlier today, which was a harbinger of this rapid intensification phase we are seeing:

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Quoting InconvenientStorm:

Has the Arctic even been ice free before?


"There is currently no scientific evidence that a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean existed anytime in the last 700,000 years, although there were periods when the Arctic was warmer than it is today."

Link
Member Since: February 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
i think shes trying to sift out the rest of the dry air
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6439
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
NHC is waiting for recon before they make any big changes to Carlotta's intensity.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO PROVIDE MORE INFORMATION ON
THE STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY OF CARLOTTA.

Remember, T numbers are great, but there is no subsitute for recon.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 79 Comments: 7298
1169. hydrus
I say Mexico has a serious flooding situation coming if the models are correct. at 30 hours.36 hours. And in three days still putting down a lot of rain,,Not good.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19558
Good morning!

Carlotta has become a mean hurricane. Classic case of rapid intensification.

Amazing how fast she decided to wrap up.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

For now yes... But if recon finds 100mph winds and T numbers still support 80mph, they'll use recon.
The T #s are low because they are constrained by time. They are not taking into account the current rapid intensification. I just hope the residents in the path of the storm are prepared for the possibility of a major hurricane. Thankfully Carlotta isn't that large of a storm with hurricane force winds only extending out 25 miles, and TS force winds only 70 miles.
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Am I the only one who thinks this storm is way stronger than 80 mph?



Raw Dvorak estimates are at T 6.1 which is category four strength. I'm not saying she is this strong, but I certainly wouldn't rule out major strength by landfall.


The ADJ t# has it around 90mph
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6439
Am I the only one who thinks this storm is way stronger than 80 mph?



Raw Dvorak estimates are at T 6.1 which is category four strength. I'm not saying she is this strong, but I certainly wouldn't rule out major strength by landfall.
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TWC just mentioned the MCV in the tropical update, "we need to watch it"
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6439
Quoting weatherh98:


not as pretty as you think... ugly betty... put it back on visible please haha

Lol, they always look better on visible... Still with the execption of a slightly ragged eye it's a powerful storm.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 79 Comments: 7298
Quoting weatherh98:


why do you just put a period?

I put a picture in...

Quoting SFLWeatherman:
What time is the Hurricane Hunter going to get out to CARLOTTA??

It'll take a little while, but I'm not sure exactly when.
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
What time is the Hurricane Hunter going to get out to CARLOTTA??



they are heading out there now
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:


not as pretty as you think... ugly betty... put it back on visible please haha
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
.


why do you just put a period?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


What a beautiful storm.
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What time is the Hurricane Hunter going to get out to CARLOTTA??
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Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 79 Comments: 7298
1155. hydrus
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
What a beautiful storm:



I remember seeing a storm about 20 years ago in the Pacific. It truly was one of the coolest storms I ever saw. It was a large cat-3 or 4, out there by itself in all that Pacific emptiness. There was not a single cloud to be seen or had within 1500 miles of the thing, just clear blue ocean with magnificent powerful absolutely perfectly formed hurricane. I will never forget it. I have not been able to locate the sat pic. I thought its name was Danielle, but could not find it.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19558
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I think I remember what you're talking about, and he's right too (I think it was Humberto), the small size of these cyclones makes it very difficult for the models to pick up such a small system with current resolution, giving us hardly any warning in advance when they do develop and not much idea where they will go, and if conditions are good - they can intensify rapidly.


I remember going to bed with a storm offshore and waking up to school cancelled due to Hurricane Humberto.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

For now yes... But if recon finds 100mph winds and T numbers still support 80mph, they'll use recon.


I agree..... im just saying they arent being conservative about it
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6439
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Quoting jeffs713:

Or it could just be clouded over, too.


Thats more likely.
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6439
Quoting weatherh98:


Yes but what they have for the t numbers is what they put

For now yes... But if recon finds 100mph winds and T numbers still support 80mph, they'll use recon.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 79 Comments: 7298
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
NHC is waiting for recon before they make any big changes to Carlotta's intensity.

yeah I am sure that 80mph and rapid intensifcation expected to continue yeah sure the NHC aun't going to have changes to update
you really must be drinking
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9592
Carlotta sure has grown up in the last few hours and the GOM appears to want to come out to play as well.
Hope everyone is enjoying their Friday.
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:


I agree as most have considered the home brews to be the ones to watch out for this year. Dr. Masters said a few years back in a blog to be worried when "All" the models develop and storm and also when "None" of the models develop a storm. I don't know if you remember that or not as it was some time ago?


I think I remember what you're talking about, and he's right too (I think it was Humberto), the small size of these cyclones makes it very difficult for the models to pick up such a small system with current resolution, giving us hardly any warning in advance when they do develop and not much idea where they will go, and if conditions are good - they can intensify rapidly.
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Quoting weatherh98:


eye so small you cant see it

Or it could just be clouded over, too.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


And the #T for Alex in 2010 supported a 140mph Category 4. Recon is always better than satellite estimates.


Yes but what they have for the t numbers is what they put
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6439
Quoting weatherh98:


The tnumbers support 80 though


And the #T for Alex in 2010 supported a 140mph Category 4. Recon is always better than satellite estimates.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Any stalled or semi-stationary MCV over the GOMEX bears watching as they can prove the basis for quick spin ups. None of the models with their resolutions would catch it given the size. Somewhat similar to how Claudette developed in that regard, although Claudette developed from a tropical wave off Tampa.



I agree as most have considered the home brews to be the ones to watch out for this year. Dr. Masters said a few years back in a blog to be worried when "All" the models develop a storm and also when "None" of the models develop a storm. I don't know if you remember that or not as it was some time ago?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
"CARLOTTA APPEARS TO BE UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION...AND THIS
IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE CENTER MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE
MEXICAN COAST IN 18 HR OR SO. THE EARLY PART OF THE INTENSITY
FORECAST HAS BEEN REVISED UPWARD...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CARLOTTA
COULD GET STRONGER THAN 85 KT BEFORE THE CENTER NEARS THE COAST."


18 hours of rapid intensification? and only 85 kts? id say maybe cat 3 at the rate its going
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6439
LOL the NHC earlier today "Rapid intensifcation seems unlikely now at this point"
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"CARLOTTA APPEARS TO BE UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION...AND THIS
IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE CENTER MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE
MEXICAN COAST IN 18 HR OR SO. THE EARLY PART OF THE INTENSITY
FORECAST HAS BEEN REVISED UPWARD...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CARLOTTA
COULD GET STRONGER THAN 85 KT BEFORE THE CENTER NEARS THE COAST."
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
NHC is waiting for recon before they make any big changes to Carlotta's intensity.


The tnumbers support 80 though
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6439
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
BULLETIN
HURRICANE CARLOTTA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032012
800 AM PDT FRI JUN 15 2012

...CARLOTTA BECOMES A HURRICANE...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 96.0W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


More like what happened in the last hour and a half brah you have been missing it T numbers for around 80mph
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6439
8:00 AM PDT Fri Jun 15
Location: 14.0°N 96.0°W
Moving: NW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 985 mb
Max sustained: 80 mph
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NHC is waiting for recon before they make any big changes to Carlotta's intensity.
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HWRF
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
This is the definition of pinhole



eye so small you cant see it
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6439
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
What the heck happened to Carlotta last night?

She got angry.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 79 Comments: 7298
BULLETIN
HURRICANE CARLOTTA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032012
800 AM PDT FRI JUN 15 2012

...CARLOTTA BECOMES A HURRICANE...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 96.0W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30268
Any stalled or semi-stationary MCV over the GOMEX bears watching as they can prove the basis for quick spin ups. None of the models with their resolutions would catch it given the size. Somewhat similar to how Claudette developed in that regard, although Claudette developed from a tropical wave off Tampa.

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What the heck happened to Carlotta last night?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30268
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
This is the definition of pinhole



Rapid intensification on one storm and a pinhole on the other
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6439
This is the definition of pinhole

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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Their remnants

Main article: Mesoscale convective vortex
A mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) is a mid-level low-pressure center within an MCS that pulls winds into a circling pattern, or vortex. Once the parent MCS dies, this vortex can persist and lead to future convective development. With a core only 30 miles (48 km) to 60 miles (97 km) and up to 8 kilometres (5.0 mi) deep,[33] an MCV can occasionally spawn a mesoscale surface low pressure area which appears on mesoscale surface weather analyses. But an MCV can take on a life of its own, persisting for up to several days after its parent MCS has dissipated.[34] The orphaned MCV will sometimes then become the seed of the next thunderstorm outbreak. An MCV that moves into tropical waters, such as the Gulf of Mexico, can serve as the nucleus for a tropical storm or hurricane.[35]


I said it was an MCV
Quoting weatherh98:


and it would more likely be an Mesoscale convective vortex more thananything. The nhc should just circle it and say near 0 % because of the reasons you stated


right der
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6439
Quoting ILwthrfan:

How much will this effect her track with the steering patterns?  Little to none?  Or was the HWRF which had her stronger than the other models also kept her off shore doing a loop d loop.


HWRF has had a recent upgrade in resolution and is much more accurate this year than in recent, and it was calling for something like this to happen for days.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.