Tropical Storm Carlotta forms in the East Pacific

By: Angela Fritz , 5:25 PM GMT on June 14, 2012

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Tropical Storm Carlotta has formed in the East Pacific, and is heading northwest toward the west coast of Mexico, where impacts are expected to begin on Friday. Carlotta has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph gusting to 55 mph. A hurricane hunter mission is tentatively scheduled for 2pm EDT on Friday. Carlotta's rain is visible on Puerto Ánoel's radar this afternoon. The storm appears to be well-vented, with high-level outflow apparent on satellite, and thunderstorms firing on all sides of the storm's center. The storm is currently in an area of low wind shear, however, shear will likely increase as the storm moves north. Sea surface temperature under Carlotta is slightly above average—around 30°C (86°F)—and is expected to remain around there for the next few days. These conditions are favorable for strengthening. Tropical Storm Carlotta is the 3rd tropical cyclone and named storm in the basin, and is the 5th earliest formation of the season's 3rd storm. The earliest 3rd storm formation on record is June 7th: a record tied by Hurricane Connie of 1974 and Tropical Storm Carlos of 1985.


Visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Carlotta taken at 11am EDT on Thursday.

Forecast for Carlotta
Tropical Storm Carlotta is expected to continue on its path northwest over the next few days, as it approaches the western coast of Mexico, near Acapulco. Most of the reliable track models agree with this (GFS, GFDL, HWRF, UKMET). The GFS ensemble members are basically in agreement with NHC track, however, some ensembles are still suggesting that Carlotta's energy could jump the gap and transfer into the Gulf of Mexico early next week, which is an unlikely solution. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Carlotta to reach hurricane status on Friday. This intensification, though quick, will be short-lived as the cyclone interacts with land. Granted, the intensity of this system depends heavily on how close to the coast it gets. The mountains of western Mexico can tear apart a tropical storm or weak hurricane with ease. In any case, Carlotta is expected to bring heavy rain to an area prone to flash flooding and landslides.

Meanwhile, in the Atlantic
No tropical cyclone activity is expected in the next couple of days, though some models are suggesting an easterly wave could develop into a weak tropical cyclone in the western Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico next week.

Angela

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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
btw look at carlotta rgb floater she is N and E of forecast plots and looks to be moving N-NNW

Found him!
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

The way I see it work out:
May
Alberto
Beryl
June
Chris
July
Debby
August
Ernesto
Florence
Gordon
Helene
September
Isaac
Joyce
Kirk
Leslie
October
Michael
Nadine
November
None


thats asafe bet.
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6492
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/ members/06zensp001500mbHGHTtropical276.gif
This is one run...hmm....
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Hydrus, stop trying to talk like a teenager. It's not working for you. :P


pretty soon hes gonna be like

Twave? HYFR
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6492
Quoting Doppler22:

I think just Chris..... Maybe Debby in July

The way I see it work out:
May
Alberto
Beryl
June
Chris
July
Debby
August
Ernesto
Florence
Gordon
Helene
September
Isaac
Joyce
Kirk
Leslie
October
Michael
Nadine
November
None
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Hydrus, stop trying to talk like a teenager. It's not working for you. :P
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Quoting ncstorm:
Wonderkidcayman would appreciate this run..12z CMC



but then it starts moving west..


and disappears?..looks like it shows the low in the BOC..only goes out to 180 hours






Quoting weatherh98:


where is he? why hasnt he been on?

I am here
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Quoting jascott1967:
Anyone have a link to current GoM eddies?


gro does but heisnt here
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6492
Anyone have a link to current GoM eddies?
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Quoting weatherh98:


Its brah..
lmao
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Quoting hydrus:
Well then bring somethin to the party bra....


Its brah..
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6492
btw look at carlotta rgb floater she is N and E of forecast plots and looks to be moving N-NNW
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

By the way, STS means Severe Tropical Storm over there, not Subtropical Storm.


i didnt know that either
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6492
Quoting allancalderini:
anyone think we can have Chris and Debby this month or just Chris?

I think just Chris..... Maybe Debby in July
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Quoting allancalderini:
anyone think we can have Chris and Debby this month or just Chris?

More than likely, just Chris.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting hydrus:
Well then bring somethin to the party bra....


FRESCA
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6492
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Both agencies are crazy.

Why did they stop using Recon?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Both agencies are crazy.

By the way, STS means Severe Tropical Storm over there, not Subtropical Storm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Both agencies are crazy.
I know they are weird in some way but if I remember they just use 10 min sustain winds, meanwhile in here they just use 1 min sustain winds. so if you use the the way they use to measure sustain winds it will not look crazy at all.
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Quoting weatherh98:


i like it here too
Well then bring somethin to the party bra....
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Quoting hydrus:
Dude. It moves into our octant and likes it there...


i like it here too
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6492
Quoting weatherh98:


mainly in the epac but thats kay
Dude. It moves into our octant and likes it there...
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Quoting allancalderini:
between JTWC and JMA which organization do you think is the most conservative? I say the JMA I think they have Guchol at STS right now.

Both agencies are crazy.
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Quoting weatherh98:


as the crowd yells, "MJO MJO MJO"
Here is an excellent MJO forecast..Link
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between JTWC and JMA which organization do you think is the most conservative? I say the JMA I think they have Guchol at STS right now.
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Quoting allancalderini:
anyone think we can have Chris and Debby this month or just Chris?


unlikely but anythingis possible
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6492




Anticyclone in the carribean near panamaI take credit for this discovery : P
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6492
anyone think we can have Chris and Debby this month or just Chris?
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Models: Umm No! Lol! It's time to show what I got!
Member Since: June 4, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 767
Quoting CybrTeddy:


The models are all generally forecasting development ranging from a Hurricane (00z and 06z GFS runs) to a weak TS (12z GFS, ECMWF)



Thanks CybrTeddy!
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Thanks Angela. Next week is not good for me. Please ask the models to move the potential weak tropical cyclone in the western Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico to the week after next...
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Belize National Meteorological Service

Date:


THURSDAY 14TH JUNE 2012

Time:


6:00 AM

General Situation:


AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE WILL MAINTAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER OUR AREA...

24hr Forecast:


MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING...THEN SPEADING TO MOST AREAS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

Winds:


EAST 10-20 KNOTS.

Sea State:


CHOPPY - MODERATE.

Outlook:


FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: CONTINUING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SOME OUTBREAKS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG COASTAL AREAS.
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Quoting hydrus:
Great site..Look on the left hand side for more cool links..Link

Thanks! That's an awesome site!
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Quoting hydrus:
And this one,s lookin phat dog..look...LOOOKK..


mainly in the epac but thats kay
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6492
Quoting weatherh98:


where is he? why hasnt he been on?


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Quoting ncstorm:


He was on earlier this morning..


oh i havent seen him.... or taz
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6492
Quoting weatherh98:


as the crowd yells, "MJO MJO MJO"
And this one,s lookin phat dog..look...LOOOKK..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherh98:


where is he? why hasnt he been on?


He was on earlier this morning..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15282
Quoting ncstorm:
Wonderkidcayman would appreciate this run..12z CMC



but then it starts moving west..


and disappears?..looks like it shows the low in the BOC..only goes out to 180 hours





where is he? why hasnt he been on?
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6492
Quoting Ameister12:
Tornado probability today:


torcns of threesand fours
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6492
Quoting thunderbug91:

Oops, I'm sorry, the link for the plot on Post #15
Great site..Look on the left hand side for more cool links..Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wonderkidcayman would appreciate this run..12z CMC



but then it starts moving west..


and disappears?..looks like it shows the low in the BOC..only goes out to 180 hours



Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15282
Tornado probability today:
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4975
Quoting hydrus:
Which link.?

Oops, I'm sorry, the link for the plot on Post #15
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It's better to say all runs prior to the 12z euro.
Member Since: June 4, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 767
Quoting hydrus:
Here it comes.


as the crowd yells, "MJO MJO MJO"
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6492
Quoting thunderbug91:

Can you send me this link please?
Which link.?
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Quoting STXHurricanes2012:
euro hasn't ran yet 12z lol


I was referring to the 00z.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24016
Here it comes.
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Quoting hydrus:

Can you send me this link please?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.