Tropical Storm Carlotta forms in the East Pacific

By: Angela Fritz , 5:25 PM GMT on June 14, 2012

Share this Blog
39
+

Tropical Storm Carlotta has formed in the East Pacific, and is heading northwest toward the west coast of Mexico, where impacts are expected to begin on Friday. Carlotta has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph gusting to 55 mph. A hurricane hunter mission is tentatively scheduled for 2pm EDT on Friday. Carlotta's rain is visible on Puerto Ánoel's radar this afternoon. The storm appears to be well-vented, with high-level outflow apparent on satellite, and thunderstorms firing on all sides of the storm's center. The storm is currently in an area of low wind shear, however, shear will likely increase as the storm moves north. Sea surface temperature under Carlotta is slightly above average—around 30°C (86°F)—and is expected to remain around there for the next few days. These conditions are favorable for strengthening. Tropical Storm Carlotta is the 3rd tropical cyclone and named storm in the basin, and is the 5th earliest formation of the season's 3rd storm. The earliest 3rd storm formation on record is June 7th: a record tied by Hurricane Connie of 1974 and Tropical Storm Carlos of 1985.


Visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Carlotta taken at 11am EDT on Thursday.

Forecast for Carlotta
Tropical Storm Carlotta is expected to continue on its path northwest over the next few days, as it approaches the western coast of Mexico, near Acapulco. Most of the reliable track models agree with this (GFS, GFDL, HWRF, UKMET). The GFS ensemble members are basically in agreement with NHC track, however, some ensembles are still suggesting that Carlotta's energy could jump the gap and transfer into the Gulf of Mexico early next week, which is an unlikely solution. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Carlotta to reach hurricane status on Friday. This intensification, though quick, will be short-lived as the cyclone interacts with land. Granted, the intensity of this system depends heavily on how close to the coast it gets. The mountains of western Mexico can tear apart a tropical storm or weak hurricane with ease. In any case, Carlotta is expected to bring heavy rain to an area prone to flash flooding and landslides.

Meanwhile, in the Atlantic
No tropical cyclone activity is expected in the next couple of days, though some models are suggesting an easterly wave could develop into a weak tropical cyclone in the western Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico next week.

Angela

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 123 - 73

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26Blog Index

Quoting HurricaneDean07:

The only thing I see, is the Negative PDO getting stronger, and a slight increase in equatorial waters...
When you really think about it... A negative PDO would mean a slower change into El Nino, and the warming equatorial pacific waters would mean a progression toward el nino... Stale Mate.


Oh, I've preached about the -PDO slowing the progression of El Nino all winter/spring. However, its effects are beginning to lose their grip as the very Southern extent of the -PDO is losing the fight to warmer water along the equator. Pretty obvious in that animation that the warm anomalies are about to connect all the way across the Pacific along the equator.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
this is the reason pat isnt here.... hes drooling over this

Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6439
Quoting RitaEvac:


It'll waaaa when Europe goes under


germany prolly wont... yet
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6439
Quoting RitaEvac:


It'll waaaa when Europe goes under

Greece is about to go bye-bye... and Italy, Spain, and France will follow.
So yeah. Europe is going under...

What? Too soon?
Oh get over it! It's been 100 years!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RitaEvac:
Foreclosures spike 9% in May

Family net worth plummets nearly 40%





The Bush years - the gift that keeps giving....
Member Since: February 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
L1 72 dBZ HEIGHT 48,000 ft. VIL76 kg/m² CHANCE HAIL 100% chance CHANCE SEVERE HAIL 100% chance MAX HAIL SIZE >4.00 in. DIRECTION FROM 19 knots WNW (297)

Orlando is getting destroyed right now....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sunlinepr:


What Is the United States Government Waiting for? June 11, 2012 By Akio Matsumura

We continue to post the opinions of many international scientists on the potential global catastrophe that would result from the collapse of Reactor 4 at Fukushima Dai-ichi. The message now is simple and clear—Japan’s government will not act; it is the United States who must step forward—yet no action has been taken.

The United States government is the only other logical actor, and I find it very difficult to understand why they remain silent.

If this global catastrophe occurs, what will the world history books say?
Link



Heard on local news saying one of the new nuke sites will be back online....lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:


El Nino is gaining a lot more steam than before, though. Difference in three days between June 11th and today, June 14:



The only thing I see, is the Negative PDO getting stronger, and a slight increase in equatorial waters...
When you really think about it... A negative PDO would mean a slower change into El Nino, and the warming equatorial pacific waters would mean a progression toward el nino... Stale Mate.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherh98:


so will the stok market waaaa



It'll waaaa when Europe goes under
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ncstorm:
East Coast Visible Hurricane Loop


Double low!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Daily SOI: 6.4
30 Day SOI: -8.4
90 Day SOI: -3.8
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Not exactly, but a potent Low that could form somewhere near the eastern caribbean... That would be around 15 days from now, so don't count on it to happen just yet, but just an interesting feature to say the least.

Definitely something to keep one eye on going forard.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NSSL WRF 4 km grid initialized 00 UTC Jun 14 2012

36 h Total Precipitation (mm)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19525
Quoting hydrus:
Simmering..Throw a few clouds on it and we would have an invest in a few minutes or so..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
Looking at this, El-Nino does not seem to be in a rush to get here.


El Nino is gaining a lot more steam than before, though. Difference in three days between June 11th and today, June 14:


Member Since: Posts: Comments:


What Is the United States Government Waiting for? June 11, 2012 By Akio Matsumura

We continue to post the opinions of many international scientists on the potential global catastrophe that would result from the collapse of Reactor 4 at Fukushima Dai-ichi. The message now is simple and clear—Japan’s government will not act; it is the United States who must step forward—yet no action has been taken.

The United States government is the only other logical actor, and I find it very difficult to understand why they remain silent.

If this global catastrophe occurs, what will the world history books say?
Link

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting thunderbug91:

....A CV storm?

Not exactly, but a potent Low that could form somewhere near the eastern caribbean... That would be around 15 days from now, so don't count on it to happen just yet, but just an interesting feature to say the least.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

The Gulf and Caribbean sure are heating up though!
Simmering..Throw a few clouds on it and we would have an invest in a few minutes or so..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19525
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

No. watch it go back, and the forecasters completely miss the mark, and we end up in 2004 all over again... So basically we all die XP

That sounds reasonable.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:


Indeed it is!

That's pretty amazing...how are you Mississippi?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
lol Watch it go back, and we all die..lol

No. watch it go back, and the forecasters completely miss the mark, and we end up in 2004 all over again... So basically we all die XP
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RitaEvac:
Foreclosures spike 9% in May

Family net worth plummets nearly 40%





so will the stok market waaaa

Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6439
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Wait! i just noticed everyone. Look at Stormchaser's picture, comment 75. and Look at the east atlantic.
You see what the ensembles are thinking... :O

....A CV storm?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
Looking at this, El-Nino does not seem to be in a rush to get here.

The negative PDO seems to be limiting the westward progression of the warm equatorial pacific waters...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
Looking at this, El-Nino does not seem to be in a rush to get here.


It looks like its digressing
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6439
Foreclosures spike 9% in May

Family net worth plummets nearly 40%



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
I see a hurricane for mexico from the atlantic

The timing would have to be much later- about 3 days later, then the High would build in and you would see a system running around and circles until it hit something, in the Southern Gulf.
Im in agreement with the Gulf coast hit, solution. Not saying it will happen, just seems more of a practical solution and is backed by the model ensembles as of right now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

It even seems to be backing off just a bit at the moment.
lol Watch it go back, and we all die..lol
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19525
Quoting hydrus:
Looking at this, El-Nino does not seem to be in a rush to get here.

The Gulf and Caribbean sure are heating up though!
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 79 Comments: 7295
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Hydrus, stop trying to talk like a teenager. It's not working for you. :P
I was not trying, I just wanted to see if remember how..Forgive me Sire
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19525
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Guchol is really winding up, we'll probably see an eye peek out soon...



If you missed it in Dr. Master's last blog I wrote a new blog on Carlotta and Guchol

Link


There is a weak eye
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6439
Quoting hydrus:
Looking at this, El-Nino does not seem to be in a rush to get here.

It even seems to be backing off just a bit at the moment.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I see a hurricane for mexico from the atlantic
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

See! The Ensembles come into a perfect and clear solution! God, I hate the regular runs that go nuts because they have now idea what to do with the system.

The models are alll over the place. But that run right there...ive seen it for the past 3 days...its been consistent.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jascott1967:
Anyone have a link to current GoM eddies?


Link
Is this what you are looking for?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser121:

This is one run...hmm...

Wait! i just noticed everyone. Look at Stormchaser's picture, comment 75. and Look at the east atlantic.
You see what the ensembles are thinking... :O
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nigel20:

Wow...is that real?


Indeed it is!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Found him!

and I found you
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9559
Looking at this, El-Nino does not seem to be in a rush to get here.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19525
Quoting Stormchaser121:

This is one run...hmm...

bring it
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6439
Quoting MississippiWx:



"Dutch artist Berndaudt Smilde creates indoor clouds - this one is Nimbus II."

Posted by 28storms.com

Wow...is that real?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Guchol is really winding up, we'll probably see an eye peek out soon...



If you missed it in Dr. Master's last blog I wrote a new blog on Carlotta and Guchol

Link
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 79 Comments: 7295
Quoting Stormchaser121:

This is one run...hmm...

See! The Ensembles come into a perfect and clear solution! God, I hate the regular runs that go nuts because they have now idea what to do with the system.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Oh geez.
Don't get him started.


hahahaha
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6439
Quoting Stormchaser121:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensembl e/ members/06zensp001500mbHGHTtropical276.gif
This is one run...hmm....


you meant this
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6439
Quoting weatherh98:


pretty soon hes gonna be like

Twave? HYFR

Oh geez.
Don't get him started.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

More than likely, just Chris.
I am really hoping we can see the two my forecast for this month was 2 storms and for the year 16 that means we will need to reach the p storm(Patty)if my forecast wants to verify,but I know I will probably loose.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
East Coast Visible Hurricane Loop
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 13455

This is one run...hmm...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:



"Dutch artist Berndaudt Smilde creates indoor clouds - this one is Nimbus II."

Posted by 28storms.com

The Weather Channel Australia:

Smilde apparently uses a spray bottle to mist water in the air, combined with a smoke machine that releases a fog-like compound as well as dramatic backlighting to create his indoor clouds. These clouds only last a few moments though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
btw look at carlotta rgb floater she is N and E of forecast plots and looks to be moving N-NNW

Found him!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 123 - 73

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26Blog Index

Top of Page

About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.