Tropical Storm Carlotta forms in the East Pacific

By: Angela Fritz , 5:25 PM GMT on June 14, 2012

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Tropical Storm Carlotta has formed in the East Pacific, and is heading northwest toward the west coast of Mexico, where impacts are expected to begin on Friday. Carlotta has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph gusting to 55 mph. A hurricane hunter mission is tentatively scheduled for 2pm EDT on Friday. Carlotta's rain is visible on Puerto Ánoel's radar this afternoon. The storm appears to be well-vented, with high-level outflow apparent on satellite, and thunderstorms firing on all sides of the storm's center. The storm is currently in an area of low wind shear, however, shear will likely increase as the storm moves north. Sea surface temperature under Carlotta is slightly above average—around 30°C (86°F)—and is expected to remain around there for the next few days. These conditions are favorable for strengthening. Tropical Storm Carlotta is the 3rd tropical cyclone and named storm in the basin, and is the 5th earliest formation of the season's 3rd storm. The earliest 3rd storm formation on record is June 7th: a record tied by Hurricane Connie of 1974 and Tropical Storm Carlos of 1985.


Visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Carlotta taken at 11am EDT on Thursday.

Forecast for Carlotta
Tropical Storm Carlotta is expected to continue on its path northwest over the next few days, as it approaches the western coast of Mexico, near Acapulco. Most of the reliable track models agree with this (GFS, GFDL, HWRF, UKMET). The GFS ensemble members are basically in agreement with NHC track, however, some ensembles are still suggesting that Carlotta's energy could jump the gap and transfer into the Gulf of Mexico early next week, which is an unlikely solution. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Carlotta to reach hurricane status on Friday. This intensification, though quick, will be short-lived as the cyclone interacts with land. Granted, the intensity of this system depends heavily on how close to the coast it gets. The mountains of western Mexico can tear apart a tropical storm or weak hurricane with ease. In any case, Carlotta is expected to bring heavy rain to an area prone to flash flooding and landslides.

Meanwhile, in the Atlantic
No tropical cyclone activity is expected in the next couple of days, though some models are suggesting an easterly wave could develop into a weak tropical cyclone in the western Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico next week.

Angela

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Quoting tropicfreak:


He means WKC ;)

Come again .-.
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Quoting LargoFl:
....................................everything moving eastward today

Something big needs to form over MacDill AFB and head due east.
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Quoting tropicfreak:


He means WKC ;)

will you stop that
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12035
Quoting thunderbug91:

let me clarify what i meant...
i meant HERE, in Hillsborough County, sorry. I'm not in Orlando. My bad.
...........oh ok, sorry lol
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Quoting BobWallace:


The Bush years - the gift that keeps giving....



Do you ever tire of drinking the kool aid?

7 more months until sanity returns to the Whitehouse.
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
I'll be back to work on the blog here later.
Be back later...

Poll Time:
Should I start making Tropical weather video blog posts, to replace my tropical weather discussion on my blog?

(A) Yes, I would watch them
(B) No, Just keep typing up Tropical Weather Discussions
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

The what?

wave watch II
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12035
Does anyone has the 12z run of Euro?
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14267
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

The what?


He means WKC ;)
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....................................everything moving eastward today
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Quoting LargoFl:
quarter size hail is pretty big, enough to really damage a car etc, be careful over there

let me clarify what i meant...
i meant HERE, in Hillsborough County, sorry. I'm not in Orlando. My bad.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
also the WW3 models is pick up on this action on the W carib

The what?
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................................right on top of you ST...
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also the WW3 models is pick up on this action on the W carib
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12035
I'll be back to work on the blog here later.
Be back later...
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Quoting thunderbug91:

it's been like 8 years or more since I seen a good hailstorm here....
quarter size hail is pretty big, enough to really damage a car etc, be careful over there
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Is this where you get your predictions from? It looks very similar to what you forecasted earlier today.

no it is not actually I just look at just awhile abo I did not look at it from like maybe a week or 2 ago
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12035
Quoting MississippiWx:


Lol. The anomalies don't lie. Yes, it cooled very slightly on the CPC update a few days ago, but it has obviously resumed warming. These things never go in a straight line. There are just too many variables.

True, but it does mean the El Nino isn't gonna roll in very quickly. I imagine, at this current rate of warming. We'll have a El Nino by around the End of September, Conditions and all.
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
242 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2012

FLC095-117-141930-
/O.CON.KMLB.SV.W.0056.000000T0000Z-120614T1930Z/
SEMINOLE-ORANGE-
242 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM EDT
FOR NORTHERN ORANGE AND WESTERN SEMINOLE COUNTIES...

AT 238 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR WEKIVA SPRINGS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

AN ADDITIONAL STRONG STORM WAS LOCATED OVER OVIEDO...ALSO MOVING TO
THE SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
INTERSTATE 4...LONGWOOD...ALTAMONTE
SPRINGS...CLARCONA...CASSELBERRY...WINTER
SPRINGS...OCOEE...MAITLAND...EATONVILLE...PINE
HILLS...OVIEDO...WINTER
PARK...GOLDENROD...ALOMA...WINDERMERE...UNIVERSIT Y OF CENTRAL
FLORIDA...ORLANDO EXECUTIVE AIRPORT...BAY HILL...AZALEA PARK...UNION
PARK...ORLANDO...UNIVERSITY PARK...CONWAY...LOCKWOOD AND BITHLO

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MILES AN
HOUR AND OR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL. FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING
AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IF THE STORM APPROACHES
YOU...SEEK SHELTER IN AN ENCLOSED BUILDING ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. KEEP
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 2879 8143 2878 8142 2883 8142 2884 8140
2885 8136 2884 8133 2884 8132 2855 8107
2845 8153 2879 8159
TIME...MOT...LOC 1840Z 337DEG 23KT 2870 8139

$$


MOSES
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Quoting LargoFl:
yes local mets said most of the storms and rain will be on the east side today, looks like he was right

it's been like 8 years or more since I seen a hailstorm here....
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
Boy is it bad here again! Tree branches down everywhere with winds easily 45 to 55mph in gusts right now.


Stay safe!
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Quoting tropicfreak:


Yeah, above average wintry weather, wetter than normal. Sounds sorta like 09-10 ;).

That El Nino kicking good this winter- As of forecast.
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

I rest my case...


Lol. The anomalies don't lie. Yes, it cooled very slightly on the CPC update a few days ago, but it has obviously resumed warming. These things never go in a straight line. There are just too many variables.
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Quoting wpb:
was just looking at the nhc web i not long see the link for recon plan of the day etc

NHC Aircraft Reconnaissance
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32072
Quoting thunderbug91:

Sea breeze very violent in N FL today... wish it would shift south and west.
yes local mets said most of the storms and rain will be on the east side today, looks like he was right
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Quoting ncstorm:

Nice vorticity!
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
Boy is it bad here again! Tree branches down everywhere with winds easily 45 to 55mph in gusts right now.

looks like its right on top of you ST..you be careful over there
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
Boy is it bad here again! Tree branches down everywhere with winds easily 45 to 55mph in gusts right now.



any hail?
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6493
Quoting LargoFl:

Sea breeze very violent in N FL today... wish it would shift south and west.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Accuweather released predictions for the upcoming winter today... I like it :)



Yeah, above average wintry weather, wetter than normal. Sounds sorta like 09-10 ;).
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Quoting LargoFl:

That's a lot of Red. And I'm not talking about the fires in the west... :P
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142. wpb
was just looking at the nhc web i not long see the link for recon plan of the day etc
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
Boy is it bad here again! Tree branches down everywhere with winds easily 45 to 55mph in gusts right now.


Careful, earlier the max hail size for that cell was estimated at over 4 inches....
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Quoting LargoFl:
......................................the possibility off the Carolina's is back again in this chart, was off there yesterday


Speaking of charts...

THE CHART
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6493
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys just to note and yes I know NAM is not a tropical models but stiil

NAM show a ALMA/ARTHUR type track with Carletta take it into Guatemala and helps out the low pressure near honduras
Link

Is this where you get your predictions from? It looks very similar to what you forecasted earlier today.
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Boy is it bad here again! Tree branches down everywhere with winds easily 45 to 55mph in gusts right now.

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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Accuweather released predictions for the upcoming winter today... I like it :)



That is common since it was in my science book for the effects of el nino
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6493
Quoting weatherh98:


check mate

No. I just said it.
It's Stale mate.
Check mate is when you win!
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Accuweather released predictions for the upcoming winter today... I like it :)

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7787
hey guys just to note and yes I know NAM is not a tropical models but stiil

NAM show a ALMA/ARTHUR type track with Carletta take it into Guatemala and helps out the low pressure near honduras
Link
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12035
......................................the possibility off the Carolina's is back again in this chart, was off there yesterday
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Oh, I've preached about the -PDO slowing the progression of El Nino all winter/spring. However, its effects are beginning to lose their grip as the very Southern extent of the -PDO is losing the fight to warmer water along the equator. Pretty obvious in that animation that the warm anomalies are about to connect all the way across the Pacific along the equator.


wait you mean the PDO is about to switch
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6493
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Sea Surface Temperatures in Nino region 3.4 have cooled slightly over the past week.

I rest my case...
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Sea Surface Temperatures in Nino region 3.4 have cooled slightly over the past week.


Maybe on the last CPC update, but in that animation it definitely warmed.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Sea Surface Temperatures in Nino region 3.4 have cooled slightly over the past week.


saw tht
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6493
Quoting RitaEvac:


What's the word when playing Chess, and you can't make any more moves?? That's America


check mate
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6493
Sea Surface Temperatures in Nino region 3.4 have cooled slightly over the past week.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32072
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Greece is about to go bye-bye... and Italy, Spain, and France will follow.


What's the word when playing Chess, and you can't make any more moves?? That's America
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

The only thing I see, is the Negative PDO getting stronger, and a slight increase in equatorial waters...
When you really think about it... A negative PDO would mean a slower change into El Nino, and the warming equatorial pacific waters would mean a progression toward el nino... Stale Mate.


Oh, I've preached about the -PDO slowing the progression of El Nino all winter/spring. However, its effects are beginning to lose their grip as the very Southern extent of the -PDO is losing the fight to warmer water along the equator. Pretty obvious in that animation that the warm anomalies are about to connect all the way across the Pacific along the equator.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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