Tropical Storm Carlotta forms in the East Pacific

By: Angela Fritz , 5:25 PM GMT on June 14, 2012

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Tropical Storm Carlotta has formed in the East Pacific, and is heading northwest toward the west coast of Mexico, where impacts are expected to begin on Friday. Carlotta has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph gusting to 55 mph. A hurricane hunter mission is tentatively scheduled for 2pm EDT on Friday. Carlotta's rain is visible on Puerto Ánoel's radar this afternoon. The storm appears to be well-vented, with high-level outflow apparent on satellite, and thunderstorms firing on all sides of the storm's center. The storm is currently in an area of low wind shear, however, shear will likely increase as the storm moves north. Sea surface temperature under Carlotta is slightly above average—around 30°C (86°F)—and is expected to remain around there for the next few days. These conditions are favorable for strengthening. Tropical Storm Carlotta is the 3rd tropical cyclone and named storm in the basin, and is the 5th earliest formation of the season's 3rd storm. The earliest 3rd storm formation on record is June 7th: a record tied by Hurricane Connie of 1974 and Tropical Storm Carlos of 1985.


Visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Carlotta taken at 11am EDT on Thursday.

Forecast for Carlotta
Tropical Storm Carlotta is expected to continue on its path northwest over the next few days, as it approaches the western coast of Mexico, near Acapulco. Most of the reliable track models agree with this (GFS, GFDL, HWRF, UKMET). The GFS ensemble members are basically in agreement with NHC track, however, some ensembles are still suggesting that Carlotta's energy could jump the gap and transfer into the Gulf of Mexico early next week, which is an unlikely solution. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Carlotta to reach hurricane status on Friday. This intensification, though quick, will be short-lived as the cyclone interacts with land. Granted, the intensity of this system depends heavily on how close to the coast it gets. The mountains of western Mexico can tear apart a tropical storm or weak hurricane with ease. In any case, Carlotta is expected to bring heavy rain to an area prone to flash flooding and landslides.

Meanwhile, in the Atlantic
No tropical cyclone activity is expected in the next couple of days, though some models are suggesting an easterly wave could develop into a weak tropical cyclone in the western Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico next week.

Angela

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.......Geez, just LOOK at that storm, its Bad
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


It will not be a strong one.


Maybe, maybe not. No one knows at this point. Predicting the strength of an El Nino/La Nina event is very difficult. Some models have said strong El Nino, some show it back to neutral. There are absolutely no certainties at this point.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sunlinepr:


I don't remember it cause I was only 5 years old but I just asked my grandmother here on my side and she says it was a nightmare.... :)


so your grandma is now 142?
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6461
Winds in excess of 70 mph..you got a lil tropical storm over you ST...SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
258 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2012

FLC095-117-141930-
/O.CON.KMLB.SV.W.0056.000000T0000Z-120614T1930Z/
SEMINOLE-ORANGE-
258 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM EDT
FOR NORTHERN ORANGE AND WESTERN SEMINOLE COUNTIES...

AT 254 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH AND EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING STRIKES IN EXCESS OF 13 STRIKES A MINUTE. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR MAITLAND...MOVING SOUTH AT 25 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO PINE
HILLS...FAIRVIEW SHORES...FAIRVILLA...OVIEDO...WINTER PARK...
GOLDENROD...ALOMA...ORLOVISTA...UNIVERSITY OF CENTRAL FLORIDA...
ORLANDO EXECUTIVE AIRPORT...AZALEA PARK...UNIVERSAL STUDIOS...UNION
PARK...ORLANDO...UNIVERSITY PARK...CONWAY...LOCKWOOD AND BITHLO

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MILES AN
HOUR AND OR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL. FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING
AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IF THE STORM APPROACHES
YOU...SEEK SHELTER IN AN ENCLOSED BUILDING ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. KEEP
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A WIND GUST OF 62 MPH WAS REPORTED IN NEAR ALTAMONTE SPRINGS WITH
THIS STORM. THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM...SEEK SAFE SHELTER AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS!

PEA SIZED HAIL HAS ALSO BEEN REPORTED IN LONGWOOD WITH THIS STORM.

&&

LAT...LON 2871 8154 2882 8130 2855 8107 2846 8149
TIME...MOT...LOC 1856Z 338DEG 23KT 2863 8137

$$


MOSES
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
anyone old enough to remember the great depression?


I don't remember it cause I was only 5 years old but I just asked my grandmother here on my side and she says it was a nightmare.... :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sunlinepr:


pinhole
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6461
Quoting MississippiWx:


?? Have you not seen the newest anomalies? El Nino is certainly forming as we speak. No, it will not be declared this month or even next. However, in August we should have a full-blown El Nino event occurring if the current trend of warming continues. I never said it would be an official El Nino this month or next. Like I said though, in August (probably latter half) we should have an official one or close to it.


It will not be a strong one.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13929
Quoting weatherh98:


Can i get an AMEN


AMEN... PREACH IT
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6872
Quoting MississippiWx:


?? Have you not seen the newest anomalies? El Nino is certainly forming as we speak. No, it will not be declared this month or even next. However, in August we should have a full-blown El Nino event occurring if the current trend of warming continues. I never said it would be an official El Nino this month or next. Like I said though, in August (probably latter half) we should have an official one or close to it.
I'm still sticking with September.But if it forms in August then I'll eat crow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Do you ever tire of drinking the kool aid?

7 more months until sanity returns to the Whitehouse.


More than two-thirds of Americans—including half of Republicans—still blame former President George W. Bush for the country's economic ills, according to a new Gallup poll released on Thursday....

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/americans-bush -still-more-blame-obama-economy-143913248.html

Even half of all Republicans get it....
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
My god it is intense here!! I must have had a 70mph gust a minute ago. Trees are starting to fall now.
all red and yellow that storm is, and there is more coming down the pike at you, going to be a terrible afternoon in the Orlando area..stay safe ST..we are watching it closely
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No.

aprreciate that :P
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6461
Quoting washingtonian115:
I do believe el nino will form.But sometime in September.And even if it does we'll have the lagging affect.It doesn't appear to want to form anytime to soon in the near future.


Here's an analysis from what I got elsewhere off of Facebook. (This pertains to mainly the East Coast)



ENSO Update 06/12/12

50%+ chance of El Nino for Winter 2012-2013

Looking at various models, as well as current conditions, our trek continues toward a possible El Nino event later this fall and into the winter months. Currently the 3.4 region, which is where ENSO events are officially tracked, is near zero ( this week came in at +0.2 ); however, this region should continue to rise throughout the coming weeks and months ahead.

Most models seem to be topping this event out around the +0.7 to +1.2 area right now which would be a weak (+0.5 to +0.9 ) to moderate ( +1.0 to +1.4 ) El Nino; however and as always, it is cautioned that it is June and not November… it will change much between now and then.

What does this mean for us this coming winter? For us climatologically speaking, our winter during an El Nino year is more likely to be colder than normal and wetter than normal than the average winter. Many other factors contribute to the prominence or decay of such conditions ( NAO, AO, PNA, etc. ), but should this event come to fruition, it will represent the first time since the winter of 2009-2010 where we would be favored over the course of an entire winter to have conditions that are more conducive ( notice I didn’t say conducive, I just said MORE conducive ) for above average wintry weather.

Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6872
Quoting LargoFl:
anyone old enough to remember the great depression?


gro
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6461
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Thank you for The Feedback...
You got yourselves a deal.
I'll begin making Video blog posts next week when I have the house to myself :)

No problem!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
I do believe el nino will form.But sometime in September.And even if it does we'll have the lagging affect.It doesn't appear to want to form anytime to soon in the near future.


?? Have you not seen the newest anomalies? El Nino is certainly forming as we speak. No, it will not be declared this month or even next. However, in August we should have a full-blown El Nino event occurring if the current trend of warming continues. I never said it would be an official El Nino this month or next. Like I said though, in August (probably latter half) we should have an official one or close to it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RitaEvac:
Why-another-global-financial-crisis-may-be-immine nt
What You Should Do if Greece Exits the Euro
Investors Fleeing the Market at Record Pace
Fed: Families Net Worth Now Back to Early-1990s Levels
6 Corporations Control 90% of the U.S. Media

There is another huge leg down coming in the U.S. financials, said Peter Schiff, CEO and Chief Global Strategist of Euro Pacific Capital. In fact, once U.S interest rates rise similar to what is happening in Europe, the fallout for the banks will be worse than 2008.
anyone old enough to remember the great depression?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherh98:


Can i get an AMEN

No.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
........yes sunny here on the gulf also,high clouds over the tampa area somewhere, none here

Big clouds here on the east side of the county but nothing to show for it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Do you ever tire of drinking the kool aid?

7 more months until sanity returns to the Whitehouse.


Can i get an AMEN
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6461
Quoting MississippiWx:


Lol. No, just giving facts. Hard for most on here to accept considering this is a tropical enthusiast blog, myself included. :-)

I doubt that anyone on the blog wants an el nino to form during the the hurricane season...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:


Lol. No, just giving facts. Hard for most on here to accept considering this is a tropical enthusiast blog, myself included. :-)
I do believe el nino will form.But sometime in September.And even if it does we'll have the lagging affect.It doesn't appear to want to form anytime to soon in the near future.

HurricaneDean07 ahhhh your a blonde!.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TampaBayStormChaser:
Just had a really nice breeze due to the outflow boundary over the storm over Tampa Bay. Sunny and breezy now.
........yes sunny here on the gulf also,high clouds over the tampa area somewhere, none here
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tropicfreak:


Seriously though... you've got potential, and I enjoy discussing the tropics with you but seriously, you kinda need to lay off on the wishcasting just a bit and be a little more realistic. I only do this to build you up, not tear you down.

thats a lot but I have already got torn down and built back up from the marine captain though I feel like he left a few screws undone so I could work on it
anyway really I think it could happen
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 10852
Quoting MississippiWx:


Lol. You must be a blonde!

Dirty blonde, so it doesn't inhabit me too much, I have my moments though ;D
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting nigel20:

A
Quoting sunlinepr:


A. I would watch them.... OK
Quoting weatherh98:


A

Thank you for The Feedback...
You got yourselves a deal.
I'll begin making Video blog posts next week when I have the house to myself :)
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
194. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #31
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM GUCHOL (T1204)
3:00 AM JST June 15 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Guchol (980 hPa) located at 10.4N 132.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 9 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
90 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 11.9N 130.5E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea East Of Philippines
48 HRS: 15.5N 128.1E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea East Of Philippines
72 HRS: 19.3N 126.1E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea East Of Philippines
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Ummm, What?
Im gonna leave before this confuses me more than it has.
Be back in a bit.


Lol. You must be a blonde!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tropicfreak:


He means WKC ;)


Westminster Kennel Club? lol j/k
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
Seems like MississippiWX really wants an El nino to form really bad.


Lol. No, just giving facts. Hard for most on here to accept considering this is a tropical enthusiast blog, myself included. :-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:


You didn't know about the World War III model?

Ummm, What?
Im gonna leave before this confuses me more than it has.
Be back in a bit.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Poll Time:
Should I start making Tropical weather video blog posts, to replace my tropical weather discussion on my blog?

(A) Yes, I would watch them
(B) No, Just keep typing up Tropical Weather Discussions


A
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6461
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Come again .-.

the WAVE WATCH 3 models

Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 10852
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

will you stop that


Seriously though... you've got potential, and I enjoy discussing the tropics with you but seriously, you kinda need to lay off on the wishcasting just a bit and be a little more realistic. I only do this to build you up, not tear you down.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6872
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Poll Time:
Should I start making Tropical weather video blog posts, to replace my tropical weather discussion on my blog?

(A) Yes, I would watch them
(B) No, Just keep typing up Tropical Weather Discussions


A. I would watch them.... OK
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Poll Time:
Should I start making Tropical weather video blog posts, to replace my tropical weather discussion on my blog?

(A) Yes, I would watch them
(B) No, Just keep typing up Tropical Weather Discussions

A
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Why-another-global-financial-crisis-may-be-imminent
What You Should Do if Greece Exits the Euro
Investors Fleeing the Market at Record Pace
Fed: Families Net Worth Now Back to Early-1990s Levels
6 Corporations Control 90% of the U.S. Media

There is another huge leg down coming in the U.S. financials, said Peter Schiff, CEO and Chief Global Strategist of Euro Pacific Capital. In fact, once U.S interest rates rise similar to what is happening in Europe, the fallout for the banks will be worse than 2008.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherh98:


any hail?


No hail just intense micro burst and blinding rains.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Seems like MississippiWX really wants an El nino to form really bad.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormTracker2K:
My god it is intense here!! I must have had a 70mph gust a minute ago. Trees are starting to fall now.

Sounds like maybe you are in a microburst. Be careful over there!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Do you ever tire of drinking the kool aid?

7 more months until sanity returns to the Whitehouse.

I second that... you can say that again...
Amen.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
...............................look at where the wind direction is going on the top of the tropical storm,over into the gulf etc..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
European Banks will be wiped out:

Few large eurozone banks would be left standing and the banking sector could face a €370bn (£298bn) loss if the euro crisis results in the single currency bloc breaking apart, according to one of the first indepth analyses of what might happen if the eurozone disintegrates. The analysis by Credit Suisse estimates that up to 58% of the value of Europe’s banks could be wiped out by the departure of the “peripheral” countries – Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain – from the eurozone.


Link

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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Does anyone has the 12z run of Euro?

Hey Tropics...what's up?
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My god it is intense here!! I must have had a 70mph gust a minute ago. Trees are starting to fall now.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

The what?


You didn't know about the World War III model?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tropicfreak:


He means WKC ;)

Come again .-.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.