Tropical Storm Carlotta forms in the East Pacific

By: Angela Fritz , 5:25 PM GMT on June 14, 2012

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Tropical Storm Carlotta has formed in the East Pacific, and is heading northwest toward the west coast of Mexico, where impacts are expected to begin on Friday. Carlotta has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph gusting to 55 mph. A hurricane hunter mission is tentatively scheduled for 2pm EDT on Friday. Carlotta's rain is visible on Puerto Ánoel's radar this afternoon. The storm appears to be well-vented, with high-level outflow apparent on satellite, and thunderstorms firing on all sides of the storm's center. The storm is currently in an area of low wind shear, however, shear will likely increase as the storm moves north. Sea surface temperature under Carlotta is slightly above average—around 30°C (86°F)—and is expected to remain around there for the next few days. These conditions are favorable for strengthening. Tropical Storm Carlotta is the 3rd tropical cyclone and named storm in the basin, and is the 5th earliest formation of the season's 3rd storm. The earliest 3rd storm formation on record is June 7th: a record tied by Hurricane Connie of 1974 and Tropical Storm Carlos of 1985.


Visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Carlotta taken at 11am EDT on Thursday.

Forecast for Carlotta
Tropical Storm Carlotta is expected to continue on its path northwest over the next few days, as it approaches the western coast of Mexico, near Acapulco. Most of the reliable track models agree with this (GFS, GFDL, HWRF, UKMET). The GFS ensemble members are basically in agreement with NHC track, however, some ensembles are still suggesting that Carlotta's energy could jump the gap and transfer into the Gulf of Mexico early next week, which is an unlikely solution. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Carlotta to reach hurricane status on Friday. This intensification, though quick, will be short-lived as the cyclone interacts with land. Granted, the intensity of this system depends heavily on how close to the coast it gets. The mountains of western Mexico can tear apart a tropical storm or weak hurricane with ease. In any case, Carlotta is expected to bring heavy rain to an area prone to flash flooding and landslides.

Meanwhile, in the Atlantic
No tropical cyclone activity is expected in the next couple of days, though some models are suggesting an easterly wave could develop into a weak tropical cyclone in the western Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico next week.

Angela

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Quoting weatherh98:


yea buddy
lol..now keep it moving towards florida after you have drank your fill ok lol
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yea buddy
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Quoting LargoFl:
...................dont see anything in the gulf,and whatever is north of us is headed eastwards..gee
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53844
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did Carlotta absorb 95E?
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A tropical storm would be nice to have up here...
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The main influence for the strong storms over central and northern Florida is the low pressure area slightly due east of Tallahassee Florida. You can see it push the unstable air over central Florida.

Link
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Good afternoon nigel. It continues hot and dry in Puerto Rico. Hopefully,we get some moisture by the weekend.

CLIMATE...AT TJSJ...TODAY MARKS THE SIXTEEN CONSECUTIVE DAY
WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE 90F AND THE FOURTEEN DAY IN A ROW
WITHOUT MEASURABLE RAIN. MEANWHILE...AT TISX...TODAY MARKS
THE 22ND CONSECUTIVE DAY WITHOUT MEASURABLE RAIN.

I hope so too!
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Quoting LargoFl:
yeah, its kinda dry here once again, we need this rain

An inch would be nice today...
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Quoting Patrap:


The Gust front jus blew thru..itsa whopper .


Im getting some from the interaction of an outflow boundary from the slidell storm and the omnipresent lake breeze.
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no ATCF for 5 PM yet?


5% chance to become major hurricane if stays over water... rapid deepening is possible
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Cells keep firing up like 5 miles south of me and drifting away... I got already a half inch of thunder but no rain yet. It's driving me nuts.
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Quoting thunderbug91:

Hopefully the energy isn't spent up by the time it reaches us....


the rain should help he cold frontkeep moving
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Could Carlotta make it to major hurricane by having more time over water since NHC have been shifting the path and parallel to the coast?
yes she can but I am now not sure if Carlotta is going to make a direct landfall anymore.
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Quoting weatherh98:


I was about to say hat you weregoing to get hit with a nasty one


The Gust front jus blew thru..itsa whopper .
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Quoting thunderbug91:

Hopefully the energy isn't spent up by the time it reaches us....
yeah, its kinda dry here once again, we need this rain
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


I think Tampa is going to get it later.

I hope so. We need it.
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Quoting LargoFl:
this is the cool front pushing downstate im assuming, so maybe WE will also get some rain later in the day, strong one up in levy county right now on the gulf side

Hopefully the energy isn't spent up by the time it reaches us....
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Could Carlotta make it to major hurricane by having more time over water since NHC have been shifting the path and parallel to the coast?

Possibly, but land interaction may disrupt the circulation if it (Carlotta) moves parallel to the Coast line and limit its intensity.
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Quoting thunderbug91:
ST2K, looks like you are probably going to get several inches today. That seabreeze boundary is not moving. Storms are just firing and moving SE along it.


I think Tampa is going to get it later.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting Patrap:

781
WUUS54 KLIX 141922
SVRLIX
LAC051-071-075-087-142015-
/O.NEW.KLIX.SV.W.0123.120614T1922Z-120614T2015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
222 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL JEFFERSON PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...TIMBERLANE...METAIRIE...MARRERO...
HARVEY...
SOUTHWESTERN ORLEANS PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...NEW ORLEANS...EAST NEW ORLEANS...
NORTHWESTERN PLAQUEMINES PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF BELLE CHASSE...
WEST CENTRAL ST. BERNARD PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CHALMETTE...

* UNTIL 315 PM CDT

* AT 218 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
BELLE CHASSE...AND MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
TERRYTOWN...WESTWEGO...GRETNA AND BRIDGE CITY

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.



LAT...LON 3004 9022 3003 9011 3004 9005 3006 9003
3005 9000 3006 8998 3007 8990 2977 8989
2974 9013
TIME...MOT...LOC 1922Z 176DEG 5KT 2984 9003



I was about to say hat you weregoing to get hit with a nasty one
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Good afternoon nigel. It continues hot and dry in Puerto Rico. Hopefully,we get some moisture by the weekend.

CLIMATE...AT TJSJ...TODAY MARKS THE SIXTEEN CONSECUTIVE DAY
WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE 90F AND THE FOURTEEN DAY IN A ROW
WITHOUT MEASURABLE RAIN. MEANWHILE...AT TISX...TODAY MARKS
THE 22ND CONSECUTIVE DAY WITHOUT MEASURABLE RAIN.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Could Carlotta make it to major hurricane by having more time over water since NHC have been shifting the path and parallel to the coast?

Unlikely but possible.
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Quoting thunderbug91:
Largo, is it me or does development also seem to be pushing more towards our area now from the north? Look at the animation for the TBW radar...
this is the cool front pushing downstate im assuming, so maybe WE will also get some rain later in the day, strong one up in levy county right now on the gulf side
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Its raining its pouring... My dog is snoring

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Largo, is it me or does development also seem to be pushing more towards our area now from the north? Look at the animation for the TBW radar...
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781
WUUS54 KLIX 141922
SVRLIX
LAC051-071-075-087-142015-
/O.NEW.KLIX.SV.W.0123.120614T1922Z-120614T2015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
222 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL JEFFERSON PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...TIMBERLANE...METAIRIE...MARRERO...
HARVEY...
SOUTHWESTERN ORLEANS PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...NEW ORLEANS...EAST NEW ORLEANS...
NORTHWESTERN PLAQUEMINES PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF BELLE CHASSE...
WEST CENTRAL ST. BERNARD PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CHALMETTE...

* UNTIL 315 PM CDT

* AT 218 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
BELLE CHASSE...AND MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
TERRYTOWN...WESTWEGO...GRETNA AND BRIDGE CITY

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.



LAT...LON 3004 9022 3003 9011 3004 9005 3006 9003
3005 9000 3006 8998 3007 8990 2977 8989
2974 9013
TIME...MOT...LOC 1922Z 176DEG 5KT 2984 9003

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
319 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2012

FLC095-117-141930-
/O.CON.KMLB.SV.W.0056.000000T0000Z-120614T1930Z/
SEMINOLE-ORANGE-
319 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM EDT
FOR NORTHERN ORANGE AND WESTERN SEMINOLE COUNTIES...

AT 312 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ORLANDO EXECUTIVE AIRPORT...OR
NEAR AZALEA PARK...MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH.

THE STORM HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF WEAKENING WITHIN THE PAST 10 MINUTES.
HOWEVER...AN ADDITIONAL STORM HAS FORMED ON ITS EASTERN FLANK IN THE
VICINITY OF BITHLO THAT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND
GUSTS...SMALL HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. .

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BITHLO

LAT...LON 2871 8154 2882 8130 2855 8107 2846 8149
TIME...MOT...LOC 1917Z 338DEG 23KT 2851 8131

$$



BRAGAW
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Could Carlotta make it to major hurricane by having more time over water since NHC have been shifting the path and parallel to the coast?
Yes.It is possible that the center stays off shore and spends more time over water.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
the great depression only thing i remember being told is have a wheel barrel handy so you can carry the money in it to buy a loaf of bread a can of milk and a stick of butter
...some bad things are coming down the pike in the years to come
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


Thanks for posting that as I was just estimating 70 mph and I see that was correct. Storm has passed now it's cleanup time. That storm dropped 1.06" at my work and my house has over 1.50". Now 9.47" for the month of June rainfall wise and still half of the month to go.

Buckle down, there's more coming!
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storm popped up over me now
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


Thanks for posting that as I was just estimating 70 mph and I see that was correct. Storm has passed now it's cleanup time. That storm dropped 1.06" at my work and my house has over 1.50". Now 9.47" for the month of June rainfall wise and still half of the month to go.
.............ok, keep watching the weather, more is coming
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ST2K, looks like you are probably going to get several inches today. That seabreeze boundary is not moving. Storms are just firing and moving SE along it.
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Quoting LargoFl:
anyone old enough to remember the great depression?
the great depression only thing i remember being told is have a wheel barrel handy so you can carry the money in it to buy a loaf of bread a can of milk and a stick of butter
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53844
Quoting LargoFl:
Winds in excess of 70 mph..you got a lil tropical storm over you ST...SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
258 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2012

FLC095-117-141930-
/O.CON.KMLB.SV.W.0056.000000T0000Z-120614T1930Z/
SEMINOLE-ORANGE-
258 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM EDT
FOR NORTHERN ORANGE AND WESTERN SEMINOLE COUNTIES...

AT 254 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH AND EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING STRIKES IN EXCESS OF 13 STRIKES A MINUTE. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR MAITLAND...MOVING SOUTH AT 25 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO PINE
HILLS...FAIRVIEW SHORES...FAIRVILLA...OVIEDO...WINTER PARK...
GOLDENROD...ALOMA...ORLOVISTA...UNIVERSITY OF CENTRAL FLORIDA...
ORLANDO EXECUTIVE AIRPORT...AZALEA PARK...UNIVERSAL STUDIOS...UNION
PARK...ORLANDO...UNIVERSITY PARK...CONWAY...LOCKWOOD AND BITHLO

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MILES AN
HOUR AND OR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL. FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING
AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IF THE STORM APPROACHES
YOU...SEEK SHELTER IN AN ENCLOSED BUILDING ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. KEEP
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A WIND GUST OF 62 MPH WAS REPORTED IN NEAR ALTAMONTE SPRINGS WITH
THIS STORM. THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM...SEEK SAFE SHELTER AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS!

PEA SIZED HAIL HAS ALSO BEEN REPORTED IN LONGWOOD WITH THIS STORM.

&&

LAT...LON 2871 8154 2882 8130 2855 8107 2846 8149
TIME...MOT...LOC 1856Z 338DEG 23KT 2863 8137

$$


MOSES


Thanks for posting that as I was just estimating 70 mph and I see that was correct. Storm has passed now it's cleanup time. That storm dropped 1.06" at my work and my house has over 1.50". Now 9.47" for the month of June rainfall wise and still half of the month to go.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting LargoFl:
........................................stormtrak er, this WHOLE LINE of storms is sliding down towards you. all kinds of warning out now

Big storm over Valdosta!
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Could Carlotta make it to major hurricane by having more time over water since NHC have been shifting the path and parallel to the coast?
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Quoting LargoFl:
.......Geez, just LOOK at that storm, its Bad

Looks like maybe its on a decline or restructuring itself. Cloud tops have collapsed 15K feet, and the reflectivity has fallen slightly.
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........................................stormtrak er, this WHOLE LINE of storms is sliding down towards you. all kinds of warning out now
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Why your brainwashed:


This infographic created by Jason at Frugal Dad shows that almost all media comes from the same six sources.

That's consolidated from 50 companies back in 1983.

NOTE: This infographic is from last year and is missing some key transactions. GE does not own NBC (or Comcast or any media) anymore. So that 6th company is now Comcast. And Time Warner doesn't own AOL, so Huffington Post isn't affiliated with them.

But the fact that a few companies own everything demonstrates "the illusion of choice," Frugal Dad says. While some big sites, like Digg and Reddit aren't owned by any of the corporations, Time Warner owns news sites read by millions of Americans every year.

Here's the graphic:

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Now i hear some thunder starting to growl here... looks like something is trying to form.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Maybe, maybe not. No one knows at this point. Predicting the strength of an El Nino/La Nina event is very difficult. Some models have said strong El Nino, some show it back to neutral. There are absolutely no certainties at this point.

right now we are in a neutral pattern
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.......Geez, just LOOK at that storm, its Bad
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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