Tropical Storm Carlotta forms in the East Pacific

By: Angela Fritz , 5:25 PM GMT on June 14, 2012

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Tropical Storm Carlotta has formed in the East Pacific, and is heading northwest toward the west coast of Mexico, where impacts are expected to begin on Friday. Carlotta has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph gusting to 55 mph. A hurricane hunter mission is tentatively scheduled for 2pm EDT on Friday. Carlotta's rain is visible on Puerto Ánoel's radar this afternoon. The storm appears to be well-vented, with high-level outflow apparent on satellite, and thunderstorms firing on all sides of the storm's center. The storm is currently in an area of low wind shear, however, shear will likely increase as the storm moves north. Sea surface temperature under Carlotta is slightly above average—around 30°C (86°F)—and is expected to remain around there for the next few days. These conditions are favorable for strengthening. Tropical Storm Carlotta is the 3rd tropical cyclone and named storm in the basin, and is the 5th earliest formation of the season's 3rd storm. The earliest 3rd storm formation on record is June 7th: a record tied by Hurricane Connie of 1974 and Tropical Storm Carlos of 1985.


Visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Carlotta taken at 11am EDT on Thursday.

Forecast for Carlotta
Tropical Storm Carlotta is expected to continue on its path northwest over the next few days, as it approaches the western coast of Mexico, near Acapulco. Most of the reliable track models agree with this (GFS, GFDL, HWRF, UKMET). The GFS ensemble members are basically in agreement with NHC track, however, some ensembles are still suggesting that Carlotta's energy could jump the gap and transfer into the Gulf of Mexico early next week, which is an unlikely solution. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Carlotta to reach hurricane status on Friday. This intensification, though quick, will be short-lived as the cyclone interacts with land. Granted, the intensity of this system depends heavily on how close to the coast it gets. The mountains of western Mexico can tear apart a tropical storm or weak hurricane with ease. In any case, Carlotta is expected to bring heavy rain to an area prone to flash flooding and landslides.

Meanwhile, in the Atlantic
No tropical cyclone activity is expected in the next couple of days, though some models are suggesting an easterly wave could develop into a weak tropical cyclone in the western Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico next week.

Angela

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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Because that's a perfectly logical conclusion to come to of models predicting a system 192 hours out. :P

Huh? Wait im confused...
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Quoting Stormchaser121:
Looks like the gulf of mexico storm coming up soon will be no threat to America...time to shut it down and wait for the next system.


Because that's a perfectly logical conclusion to come to of models predicting a system 192 hours out lol.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
There is some vorticity in that area.


The vorticity's been there for two days. Convection blows up at around 2p local, then dies off around 8p. Patrap and I have been following this for a couple days
and really haven't seen any met mention it. Looks like it doesn't have the time to transition to warm-core.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

LIES.

Lies?? Thats what accuweather says!
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Quoting Stormchaser121:
Looks like the gulf of mexico storm coming up soon will be no threat to America...time to shut it down and wait for the next system.

LIES.
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Looks like the gulf of mexico storm coming up soon will be no threat to America...time to shut it down and wait for the next system.
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295 KEEPEROFTHEGATE: [photo-animation of the Florida region]

Well there's the swirl into Florida's armpit that GFS kept predicting.
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316. VR46L
Quoting NavarreMark:
Look at the Keepers post 295 and then look at the Red Bay Radar loop. It definitely looks like some sort of naked swirl in the gulf. The COC is SW of Panama City.



I see a little something too

Link

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Quoting thunderbug91:

I just got that band. Be careful! It's really nasty. I almost got hit by lightning from it, its really intense in that line, almost continuous strikes.
I can hear constant distant rumbling from that cell in Odessa... those storm tops must be near 50,000 ft high. The storm looks really impressive from over here. Too bad it's moving away from me.
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Quoting NavarreMark:
Look at the Keepers post 295 and then look at the Red Bay Radar loop. It definitely looks like some sort of naked swirl in the gulf. The COC is SW of Panama City.

There is some vorticity in that area.

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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Spoke to soon, this is about to slap me in the face.

I just got that band. Be careful! It's really nasty. I almost got hit by lightning from it, its really intense in that line, almost continuous strikes.
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Quoting NavarreMark:
Look at the Keepers post 295 and then look at the Red Bay Radar loop. It definitely looks like some sort of naked swirl in the gulf. The COC is SW of Panama City.


NWS noticed it too. They said; however, that it "was less than impressive" and that development "was not likely"...
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Spoke to soon, this is about to slap me in the face.
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Quoting NavarreMark:
Look at the Keepers post 295 and then look at the Red Bay Radar loop. It definitely looks like some sort of naked swirl in the gulf. The COC is SW of Panama City.

Definitely a weak low level rotation... it's even more evident on vis sat
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Quoting weatherbro:
has anyone ever been struck by lightning?
I wasn't struck directly, but I was electrocuted while leaning against a bathroom pavilion when lightning hit it. I was under the overhang of the roof leaning against the wall and was standing on wet concrete... I felt something like a bee sting on my foot as the building discharged into the ground. That day was quite frightening because the lightning was constant and I couldn't find an appropriate building to take shelter in (the bathrooms were locked).
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Quoting nigel20:

That must have been scary...

It was scary when i seen what a close call it was...
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Quoting thunderbug91:

That is a really wierd feeling. I got it a few times while i was videorecording a storm and when i replayed the footage my camera showed a step leader had come out of the ground 15 feet away from me.

That must have been scary...
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Quoting aspectre:
288 washingtonian115: Where'd everyone go?

We're hiding from thunderbug91's lightning.

thunderbug91 is hiding from it too.....
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Quoting aspectre:
288 washingtonian115: Where'd everyone go?

We're hiding from thunderbug91's lightning.
Lol.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17074
288 washingtonian115: Where'd everyone go?

We're hiding from thunderbug91's lightning.

Derived from (NHC) ATCF data for TropicalStormCarlotta for 14June6pmGMT:
9.9n93.0w, 10.5n93.4w has been re-evaluated&altered
9.8n92.9w, 10.5n93.4w, 11.4n93.9w are now the most recent positions

Its vector had changed from NWest at 9.8mph(15.8km/h) to NNWest at 11.8mph(19km/h)
MaxSusWinds had increased from 40knots(46mph)74km/h to 45knots(52mph)83km/h
And minimum pressure had decreased from 1001millibars to 999millibars

For those who like to visually track TS.Carlotta's path...
PNO is Pinotepa :: PXM is PuertoEscondido:: HUX is Huatulco,Oaxaca :: TAP is Tapachula

The WNWesternmost dot on the kinked line is where Invest94E became TropicalDepression3E
The next dot NWest on the connected line-segment is where TD3E became TropicalStormCarlotta
The SSEasternmost dot on the longest line-segment was TS.Carlotta's most recent position

The longest line-segment is a straightline-projection through TS.Carlotta's 2 most recent positions to the coastline.
The PNO*dumbbell was the endpoint of the 14June6amGMT straightline*projection connected to its closest airport.
The PXM*blob was the endpoint of the 14June12pmGMT straightline*projection connected to its closest airport.
On 14June6pmGMT, TS.Carlotta was headed toward passage between PuertoAngel and SantaCruzHuatulco in ~1day3hours from now

Copy&paste zlo, pno-16.534n98.883w, pxm-15.828n97.048w, hux, tap, mgsj, sal, 8.1n90.0w- 8.4n90.7w- 8.7n91.6w- 9.2n92.4w, 9.2n92.4w-9.8n92.9w, 9.8n92.9w-10.5n93.4w, 10.5n93.4w-11.4n93.9w, 10.5n93.4w-15.688n96.332w the GreatCircleMapper for more information.
The previous mapping for comparison.

* 9.9n93.0w was re-evaluated&altered to 9.8n92.9w. So incorrect vectors(directions&speeds) were calculated for 14June6amGMT and 14June12pmGMT from using the original incorrect position.
Through recalculation using the correct position, the 14June12pmGMT vector has been corrected to reflect that change.
BUT the original incorrect vector also produced 2 incorrect straightline projections leading to incorrect endpoints on the PNO-dumbbell and the PXM-blob
Nonetheless I am reposting the PNO-dumbbell and PXM-blob to maintain historicity with the previous map.
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Quoting nigel20:

No, but I've felt electrically charged air!

That is a really wierd feeling. I got it a few times while i was videorecording a storm and when i replayed the footage my camera showed a step leader had come out of the ground 15 feet away from me.
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Quoting weatherbro:
has anyone ever been struck by lightning?

No, but I've felt electrically charged air!
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Where is the Houston area rain it is a sauna outside.
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Quoting weatherbro:
has anyone ever been struck by lightning?

One of my friends has. It left her paralyzed for 2 hours. Also my girlfriend got it through the telephone wire once....
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Looks like it's building southwest!!!!
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has anyone ever been struck by lightning?
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WOW This came from nowhere.....



Statement as of 3:55 PM EDT on June 14, 2012

... A significant weather advisory has been issued for eastern
Hillsborough County for a line of strong thunderstorms with hail and
strong wind gusts valid until 445 PM EDT...

At 355 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicates a
line of strong thunderstorms located along a line extending from
Tampa Executive Airport to Alafia River State Park... moving
northeast at 10 mph will affect Busch Gardens... Tampa Executive
Airport... Florida state Fairgrounds and Orient Park.

Gusty winds of 45 to 55 mph can be expected which can cause unsecured
objects to blow around... snap tree limbs and cause power outages.
Hail up to penny size may occur. Frequent to continuous lightning is
expected. To be safe go indoors immediately. If caught outside... find
a low spot... and stay away from tall objects. When driving through
heavy rain... slow down. Always leave a safe distance between you and
other vehicles.

Report damage to the nearest law enforcement agency or to your County
emergency management office.

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No, it'll probably stay at 50 mph. Good chance it will be up to 60 mph at 8PM PDT/11PM EDT though if it continues organizing.

OK, thanks!
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Quoting nigel20:

Carlotta is looking pretty good...do you think it will be stronger at the 5:00PM update?

No, it'll probably stay at 50 mph. Good chance it will be up to 60 mph at 8PM PDT/11PM EDT though if it continues organizing.
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Quoting NavarreMark:


STAY SAFE!!! BE SAFE!!!

Definitely. That scared me bad. It came from nowhere! And it's pouring here now.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
14/1745 UTC 11.2N 94.0W T3.0/3.0 CARLOTTA -- East Pacific

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.2 /1000.4mb/ 49.0kt


Carlotta is looking pretty good...do you think it will be stronger at the 5:00PM update?
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Where'd everyone go?.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17074
Anyway looks like its our turn now. The radar is starting to fill up on our side.
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Quoting thunderbug91:
Lightning coming down like crazy now in Eastern Hillsborough... I just almost got struck don by an INSANE bolt that filled the sky and came crashing down in about four different channels... I'm still shaking. That was really scary.

...needless to say I'm inside now and not going outside
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Lightning coming down like crazy now in Eastern Hillsborough... I just almost got struck don by an INSANE bolt that filled the sky and came crashing down in about four different channels... I'm still shaking. That was really scary.
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283. VR46L
Quoting NavarreMark:


I see arrows of DOOM
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


its dual gust front action pat



they will all converge over the lake to make a... SUPER STORM
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This year really does seem like Central Florida only.

West Coast really doesn't get much ever in terms of action as of late.
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Quoting NavarreMark:

Great day to golf!
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Quoting Patrap:


The Gust front jus blew thru..itsa whopper .


its dual gust front action pat

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Quoting LargoFl:
...................dont see anything in the gulf,and whatever is north of us is headed eastwards..gee

The seabreeze boundary seems to moving south now at a good clip... Look at the TBW radar animation.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
My god it is intense here!! I must have had a 70mph gust a minute ago. Trees are starting to fall now.
Sounds bad stay safe.
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14/1745 UTC 11.2N 94.0W T3.0/3.0 CARLOTTA -- East Pacific

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.2 /1000.4mb/ 49.0kt

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Quoting LargoFl:
lol..now keep it moving towards florida after you have drank your fill ok lol

kk ill wumail it too you
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39134

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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