Tropical Storm Carlotta forms in the East Pacific

By: Angela Fritz , 5:25 PM GMT on June 14, 2012

Share this Blog
39
+

Tropical Storm Carlotta has formed in the East Pacific, and is heading northwest toward the west coast of Mexico, where impacts are expected to begin on Friday. Carlotta has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph gusting to 55 mph. A hurricane hunter mission is tentatively scheduled for 2pm EDT on Friday. Carlotta's rain is visible on Puerto Ánoel's radar this afternoon. The storm appears to be well-vented, with high-level outflow apparent on satellite, and thunderstorms firing on all sides of the storm's center. The storm is currently in an area of low wind shear, however, shear will likely increase as the storm moves north. Sea surface temperature under Carlotta is slightly above average—around 30°C (86°F)—and is expected to remain around there for the next few days. These conditions are favorable for strengthening. Tropical Storm Carlotta is the 3rd tropical cyclone and named storm in the basin, and is the 5th earliest formation of the season's 3rd storm. The earliest 3rd storm formation on record is June 7th: a record tied by Hurricane Connie of 1974 and Tropical Storm Carlos of 1985.


Visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Carlotta taken at 11am EDT on Thursday.

Forecast for Carlotta
Tropical Storm Carlotta is expected to continue on its path northwest over the next few days, as it approaches the western coast of Mexico, near Acapulco. Most of the reliable track models agree with this (GFS, GFDL, HWRF, UKMET). The GFS ensemble members are basically in agreement with NHC track, however, some ensembles are still suggesting that Carlotta's energy could jump the gap and transfer into the Gulf of Mexico early next week, which is an unlikely solution. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Carlotta to reach hurricane status on Friday. This intensification, though quick, will be short-lived as the cyclone interacts with land. Granted, the intensity of this system depends heavily on how close to the coast it gets. The mountains of western Mexico can tear apart a tropical storm or weak hurricane with ease. In any case, Carlotta is expected to bring heavy rain to an area prone to flash flooding and landslides.

Meanwhile, in the Atlantic
No tropical cyclone activity is expected in the next couple of days, though some models are suggesting an easterly wave could develop into a weak tropical cyclone in the western Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico next week.

Angela

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1223 - 1173

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26Blog Index

Pollllll timmeeeee

What is the highest windspeed recon will find?
in mph
A75-80
B81-85
c86-90
d91-95
e96-100
f greater than 100

what will the peak be?

a 80
b 85
c 90
d 95
e 100
f 105
g greater


Ill say lower D and e
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6461
1222. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
T.C.F.W.
R.I. FLAG ON
ON APPROACH
03E/XH/C/C2
MARK
13.86N/95.66W
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wpb:
can someone post recon data when they start there recon

Skyepony is good at that.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
yay! Navy updated near 12.8n/95w


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

She's not that small for East Pac standards though... They're usually smaller out there.
That's an old wives tail.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1218. wpb
can someone post recon data when they start there recon
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
large bombs come in small packages


I've always heard it as small dynamite comes in large packages
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
Quoting ScottLincoln:


It's also important to note that calling the ship a "wooden sailboat" might be slightly off. Although built for a different purpose, it was specifically retrofitted for the Northwest Passage attempt and was fitted with a motor and ice sheathing. The shallows they traveled in, when possible with ice-free conditions, are nowhere near the magnitude of the continuous ice free areas today.

Trying to compare anecdotes from those voyages to objective, clearer data of today is apples vs. oranges, demonstrating a misunderstanding of the Arctic history.


What do you think of carlotta
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6461

Shortwave


Dvorak
NOAA.gov
Link East Pacific Tropical Products
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:
It pays to realize, of course, that the Northwest Passage wasn't exactly "open" for Amundsen's voyage through it; the trip took him and his crew nearly three years, much of that time with the ship stuck fast in ice. And the route Amundsen chose was through a commercially-unviable set of shallows, which tend to melt earlier than the open sea.

The truth is--that is, the scientific truth--is that the Arctic hasn't had as little ice as it has now for at least 8,000 years--and possibly far, far longer than that.


It's also important to note that calling the ship a "wooden sailboat" might be slightly off. Although built for a different purpose, it was specifically retrofitted for the Northwest Passage attempt and was fitted with a motor and ice sheathing. The shallows they traveled in, when possible with ice-free conditions, are nowhere near the magnitude of the continuous ice free areas today.

Trying to compare anecdotes from those voyages to objective, clearer data of today is apples vs. oranges, demonstrating a misunderstanding of the Arctic history.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
i think its still trying to close of the eye wall
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6461
1212. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Skyepony:
Carlotta~ Nice eye..maybe starting rapid intensification..



Here's Dvorak # page. Down to 972mb.

Carlotta TRMM pass very large quicktime.
Just misses the eye but shows the heavy rain that is coming for MX.

flag should be on next image
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm out for a bit... I bet recon finds winds of about 100mph

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7637
Quoting islander101010:
100mph?.we.will.know.shortly


My estimate is based on satellite imagery is Carlotta have an eye which is still clearing out at this hour and its building an eye wall the system is rapidly developing so around a 100mph.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
That's a good one, Keeper.

According to this, SST's are 30C...
LinkWVLoopFloater
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1207. Skyepony (Mod)
Carlotta~ Nice eye..maybe starting rapid intensification..



Here's Dvorak # page. Down to 972mb.

Carlotta TRMM pass very large quicktime.
Just misses the eye but shows the heavy rain that is coming for MX.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1199. Ameister12 11:23 AM EDT on June 15, 2012
Carlotta isn't very big.


Probably one of the reasons She is intentifiying so rapidly at the moment. Those "little" storms (think Andrew in 92) respond really quickly to pressure drops at the center of circulation if the environment becomes really favorable; a lot less mileage and space to wrap around the coc.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1205. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Ameister12:
Carlotta isn't very big.
large bombs come in small packages
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

She's not that small for East Pac standards though... They're usually smaller out there.

That's true.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

She's not that small for East Pac standards though... They're usually smaller out there.


Ive heard that from people down there in mexico... sorry had too
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6461
She's packin a punch though Ameister.
and huggin the coast looks to be unless something steers her into the mountains.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Ameister12:
Carlotta isn't very big.

She's not that small for East Pac standards though... They're usually smaller out there.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7637
Quoting Ameister12:
Carlotta isn't very big.


shes not quite full figured
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6461
Carlotta isn't very big.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Yesterday Navy had her at 325 degrees.
This is also from 8 a.m. NHC Discussion:

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/10. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP CARLOTTA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARDS...A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF CARLOTTA ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MEXICO...WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED.

AFTER 72 HR...THE STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED NORTHWARD BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION.

THE NEW FORECAST CALLS FOR THE CENTER TO MOVE NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST FROM 24-72 HR...AND THEN MAKE A SMALL ANTICYCLONIC LOOP SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1197. ncstorm




Wow..even inland its still strong
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14604
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
I think it just looks lopsided because the storm is still developing. Dry air doesn't look to be a problem:


Agreed
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1195. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
T.C.F.W.
R.I. FLAG FLAG
ON APPROACH
03E/XH/C/C2
MARK
13.33N/95.43W
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jeffs713:

Yeah, but she has some issues on the NE quad, looks like dry air and land interaction.
I think it just looks lopsided because the storm is still developing. Dry air doesn't look to be a problem:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
100mph?.we.will.know.shortly
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The Navy map has not been updated for Carlotta since she was at 10.5N/93.4W. Here's the 8 a.m. NHC Discussion which has her at 14N/96W: (excerpt and then link to page)

CARLOTTA APPEARS TO BE UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION...AND THIS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE CENTER MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE MEXICAN COAST IN 18 HR OR SO.

THE EARLY PART OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN REVISED UPWARD...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CARLOTTA COULD GET STRONGER THAN 85 KT BEFORE THE CENTER NEARS THE COAST.

AFTER 18 HR...INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING...AND BY 120 HR THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT CARLOTTA COULD DISSIPATE COMPLETELY DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD IF THE CENTER MOVES OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

USERS SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...AS ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA ONTO THE COAST OF MEXICO. IN ADDITION...THE FORECAST SLOW MOTION COULD BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 14.0N 96.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 14.9N 96.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 15.9N 97.8W 85 KT 100 MPH...NEAR COAST
36H 17/0000Z 16.4N 98.8W 75 KT 85 MPH...NEAR COAST
48H 17/1200Z 16.6N 99.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR COAST
72H 18/1200Z 16.5N 100.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR COAST
96H 19/1200Z 16.0N 99.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 20/1200Z 16.0N 99.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
Link NHC Carlotta Page
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1189. hydrus
Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 JUN 2012 Time : 141500 UTC
Lat : 13:54:15 N Lon : 95:49:10 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.7 / 975.4mb/ 82.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.7 5.7 6.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 21 km

Center Temp : +10.8C Cloud Region Temp : -66.9C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 50km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 29.0 degrees
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20539
I don't think that's an MCV in the NE GOM but merely a shortwave associated with the front expected to completely clear Florida tomorrow. Though when it catches up with the parent low(expected to break off west of Bermuda), this might bear some watching. If it develops, it'll either pull a Beryl or an Alberto next week.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
If this very deep convection (<-80C cloud tops) wraps all the way around the eye, look out:


Yeah, but she has some issues on the NE quad, looks like dry air and land interaction.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1186. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
If this very deep convection (<-80C cloud tops) wraps all the way around the eye, look out:

time is running short
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Eye is getting bigger.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1184. hydrus
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20539
If this very deep convection (<-80C cloud tops) wraps all the way around the eye, look out:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Shear is decreasing in the Gulf.
Now


9 hrs ago.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
just think if the hurricane hunters flew in and found a 70mph TS I would say that is the most beautiful TS ever
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11201
Quoting weatherh98:


I agree..... im just saying they arent being conservative about it


Good Mourning, no 11am advisory in. it looks like NHC is in a state of panic
as their info are outdated and not much data from the Hurricane Hunters have come back yet and we have a rapidly intensifying cane as it enters its peak which could be a 120 mph cat 3. Hope for the sake of the Mexican people the NHC get it together so they can prepare for a much stronger storm. Also as it weakens close to land it may not weaken to a tropical storm as indicated by the 8am and turn back over water it could stay a hurricane and reintensify before making landfall again.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting InconvenientStorm:
Either Arctic Ice was growing in volume before 1979 or the current tools they use to measure the ice were not available before that time?


To look back into the past, researchers combine data and records from indirect sources known as proxy records. Researchers delved into shipping charts going back to the 1950s, which noted sea ice conditions. The data gleaned from those records, called the Hadley data set, show that Arctic sea ice has declined since at least the mid-1950s. Shipping records exist back to the 1700s, but do not provide complete coverage of the Arctic Ocean. However, taken together these records indicate that the current decline is unprecedented in the last several hundred years.



Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1178. hydrus
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20539
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I put a picture in...


It'll take a little while, but I'm not sure exactly when.


Around 2 PM EDT.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Very serious problem for Mexico.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Carlotta is certainly undergoing rapid intensification, I think it will easily be a major hurricane. I didn't realize Guchol had a pinhole eye, I just thought it looked like a well organized tropical storm. They keep shifting Guchol's track to the East I think Japan might be spared.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormTracker2K:


If anything this may sit in the Gulf and drift around for several days.



That low was forecast to track west along the coast over the next few days. We're expecting to get some rain from it here midweek sometime.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherh98:


The ADJ t# has it around 90mph


Look at the latest update:

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 JUN 2012 Time : 134500 UTC
Lat : 13:51:23 N Lon : 95:46:33 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 977.4mb/ 79.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.6 5.7 6.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 19 km

Center Temp : 6.6C Cloud Region Temp : -66.0C

Scene Type : EYE

This will be a major hurricane soon I'm afraid.

Call me a hype man if you wish, but I've seen this before.

Look at this beautiful 37 gHz image from earlier today, which was a harbinger of this rapid intensification phase we are seeing:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1223 - 1173

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Mostly Cloudy
73 °F
Mostly Cloudy