Tropical Storm Carlotta forms in the East Pacific

By: Angela Fritz , 5:25 PM GMT on June 14, 2012

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Tropical Storm Carlotta has formed in the East Pacific, and is heading northwest toward the west coast of Mexico, where impacts are expected to begin on Friday. Carlotta has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph gusting to 55 mph. A hurricane hunter mission is tentatively scheduled for 2pm EDT on Friday. Carlotta's rain is visible on Puerto Ánoel's radar this afternoon. The storm appears to be well-vented, with high-level outflow apparent on satellite, and thunderstorms firing on all sides of the storm's center. The storm is currently in an area of low wind shear, however, shear will likely increase as the storm moves north. Sea surface temperature under Carlotta is slightly above average—around 30°C (86°F)—and is expected to remain around there for the next few days. These conditions are favorable for strengthening. Tropical Storm Carlotta is the 3rd tropical cyclone and named storm in the basin, and is the 5th earliest formation of the season's 3rd storm. The earliest 3rd storm formation on record is June 7th: a record tied by Hurricane Connie of 1974 and Tropical Storm Carlos of 1985.


Visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Carlotta taken at 11am EDT on Thursday.

Forecast for Carlotta
Tropical Storm Carlotta is expected to continue on its path northwest over the next few days, as it approaches the western coast of Mexico, near Acapulco. Most of the reliable track models agree with this (GFS, GFDL, HWRF, UKMET). The GFS ensemble members are basically in agreement with NHC track, however, some ensembles are still suggesting that Carlotta's energy could jump the gap and transfer into the Gulf of Mexico early next week, which is an unlikely solution. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Carlotta to reach hurricane status on Friday. This intensification, though quick, will be short-lived as the cyclone interacts with land. Granted, the intensity of this system depends heavily on how close to the coast it gets. The mountains of western Mexico can tear apart a tropical storm or weak hurricane with ease. In any case, Carlotta is expected to bring heavy rain to an area prone to flash flooding and landslides.

Meanwhile, in the Atlantic
No tropical cyclone activity is expected in the next couple of days, though some models are suggesting an easterly wave could develop into a weak tropical cyclone in the western Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico next week.

Angela

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Quoting MTWX:


It is.
thank you
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4570
.........well clear here,hopefully tonight we will get some rain..drop the shields Tampa lol.......the dinner bell has rung...stay safe out there
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33230


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Quoting Grothar:


You're a nice boy!
ty Gro,ive got some white in hair and beard...lol
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4570
Quoting LargoFl:
I hope your right thunder,not a cloud in sight here and no rain

If the energy keeps up, the system as a whole is moving south and west it appears. I just hope it doesn't run out of gas before it gets here.
What's amazing is, the storm that hit ST2K earlier has rebuilt itself and is raging south of Melbourne now...
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33230
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
did you say the GFS has a Low there?
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Quoting aspectre:
295 KEEPEROFTHEGATE: [photo-animation of the Florida region]

Well there's the swirl into Florida's armpit that GFS kept predicting.
anyone keeping track of which model is performing best the last week now that Carlotta is here
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4570
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Pouring rain :)
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Quoting redwagon:

It's that 'Mobile Low' we've been watching. It starting spinning Tuesday N of Mobile, never stop spinning, although convection came and went. Which is to say, it shouldn't have a hard time crossing FL and making mischief somewhere up or down the ATL coast.
inland they sure are getting a beating today, those storms are nasty
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33230
Interesting feature off of the east coast.
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Quoting thunderbug91:

it's coming, Largo, slowly but surely... we just got our first strong band of the day here where I am, and it looks like more is on the way.
I hope your right thunder,not a cloud in sight here and no rain
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33230
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
was looking at those rainfall forecast earlier for like,looked like a Low south of New Orleans in Gulf going east over to florida to keep the wholw state the wettest in the whole country
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355. MTWX
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
gust front=outflow boundry? looks the same


It is.
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Quoting LargoFl:
geez Florida is exploding now

it's coming, Largo, slowly but surely... we just got our first strong band of the day here where I am, and it looks like more is on the way.
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Quoting LargoFl:
geez Florida is exploding now

It's that 'Mobile Low' we've been watching. It starting spinning Tuesday N of Mobile, never stop spinning, although convection came and went. Which is to say, it shouldn't have a hard time crossing FL and making mischief somewhere up or down the ATL coast.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


its dual gust front action pat

gust front=outflow boundry? looks the same
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
"CARLOTTA REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND OVER 30C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAT SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST
STEADY STRENGTHENING THROUGH 36 HR. THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION
INDEX OF THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A 60-70 PERCENT CHANCE OF 25-KT
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HR...AND ABOUT A 35 PERCENT CHANCE
OF 40-KT STRENGTHENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR
CARLOTTA TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN LESS THAN 24 HR AND REACH A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 80 KT IN 36 HR...AND THIS PEAK COULD BE CONSERVATIVE.
AFTER 36 HR...LAND INTERACTION WILL BE THE MAIN CONTROLLING FACTOR
ON THE INTENSITY. IF CARLOTTA MOVES INLAND...IT SHOULD DISSIPATE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO. EVEN IF IT STAYS OFFSHORE...IT IS
EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO INTERACT WITH THE MOUNTAINS AND
WEAKEN AS SHOWN BY THE GFDL/HWRF MODELS...AND THAT SCENARIO IS USED
IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST."


Hey, TA, when I wrote that this was going to become a hurricane the other day, you said you would note it. See, I told you so. I told you so.!!

Anybody want my opinion of the Gulf and Caribbean development?
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Quoting nigel20:

Carlotta is looking pretty good...do you think it will be stronger at the 5:00PM update?
indeed
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Quoting LargoFl:
geez Florida is exploding now
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33230
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Quoting ncstorm:
I only see a low its only brief in the BOC on the 12Z Euro run..Huffman's site hasnt updated yet
So the EURO not biting on the crossover scenario? or?
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4570
The new JTWC track shows Japan right in the center of the cone... I also disagree that this will weaken to a TS before it reaches the country... While it will be becoming extratropical by the time it gets there, it is unlikely a storm that powerful goes from 90kts to 60kts in a day like the JTWC forecasts over the last day of the forecast period:



Also the track confirms that Guchol was in fact moving WSW for much of the day as I suspected.
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
LOL Poor Gro,he,s the butt of all the old jokes


You're a nice boy!
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343. MTWX
Quoting NavarreMark:
Look at the Keepers post 295 and then look at the Red Bay Radar loop. It definitely looks like some sort of naked swirl in the gulf. The COC is SW of Panama City.



It's the one we were watching yesterday that moved off the coast near Mobile...
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
good one keeper
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Quoting intampa:
no rain for tampa again today... this place is going to get like texas soon. all the rain just passes over and on to the east coast. there was a discussion here the other day about florida and the changing weather. living here all my life i agree ... we do not have rainy season like we used to. its bone dry
yeah i agree, whatever happened to the afternoon thunderstorms here along the gulf coast?..inland and east coast gets everything now
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33230
340. MTWX
Quoting weatherbro:
has anyone ever been struck by lightning?


I have... destroyed my video camera and had 2nd degree burns on my hands and my left foot, but fortunately I have no lasting effects from it (aside from some minor scarring). I was lucky!
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"With a big ridge of high pressure to the north... If something develops, it may not have an option of where to go," Kottlowski said. It may either stay put over the Bay of Campeche or be steered west-northwestward into Mexico as an organized tropical system.
Accuweather.com
Member Since: September 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1140
The latest JTWC advisory has Guchol up to 90mph... They have also raised the forecast peak intensity quite a bit to 105 kts (120mph) coming more in line with my forecast peak of 125 mph... Japan needs to watch this very closely.
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no rain for tampa again today... this place is going to get like texas soon. all the rain just passes over and on to the east coast. there was a discussion here the other day about florida and the changing weather. living here all my life i agree ... we do not have rainy season like we used to. its bone dry
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


It will not be a strong one.
I hope the El Nino really cranks up and we get somw nice storms here in California this winter
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Have a good day everyone...BBL
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Quoting BobWallace:


More than two-thirds of Americans—including half of Republicans—still blame former President George W. Bush for the country's economic ills, according to a new Gallup poll released on Thursday....

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/americans-bush -still-more-blame-obama-economy-143913248.html

Even half of all Republicans get it....
I think he,s done a good job considering what was dumped in his lap.
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4570
Quoting weatherh98:


gro
LOL Poor Gro,he,s the butt of all the old jokes
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4570
"CARLOTTA REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND OVER 30C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAT SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST
STEADY STRENGTHENING THROUGH 36 HR. THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION
INDEX OF THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A 60-70 PERCENT CHANCE OF 25-KT
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HR...AND ABOUT A 35 PERCENT CHANCE
OF 40-KT STRENGTHENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR
CARLOTTA TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN LESS THAN 24 HR AND REACH A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 80 KT IN 36 HR...AND THIS PEAK COULD BE CONSERVATIVE.
AFTER 36 HR...LAND INTERACTION WILL BE THE MAIN CONTROLLING FACTOR
ON THE INTENSITY. IF CARLOTTA MOVES INLAND...IT SHOULD DISSIPATE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO. EVEN IF IT STAYS OFFSHORE...IT IS
EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO INTERACT WITH THE MOUNTAINS AND
WEAKEN AS SHOWN BY THE GFDL/HWRF MODELS...AND THAT SCENARIO IS USED
IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST."
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No.
Not just NO but HECK NO!!
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Quoting weatherh98:


Can i get an AMEN
until he's re-elected
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Quoting hydrus:
Here it comes.


looks like the MJO slowing down quite a bit,maybe models will get a better handle on things.
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4570
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032012
200 PM PDT THU JUN 14 2012

...CARLOTTA MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF
MEXICO...RAINBANDS MOVING INTO GUATEMALA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.8N 94.2W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
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HPC Extended Discussion

CURRENT MJO IN PHASE 8 ENTERING PHASE 1 CONTINUES SHOWING
FAVORABLE VELOCITY POTENTAIL ANOMALIES AND H200 AND H850 OVER THE
EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC/ CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE WRN
CARRIBEAN/GLFMEX. BROAD SCALE ANOMALOUS H850 WESTERLY FLOW IN THE
TROPICAL EPAC SUPPORTS BROAD SCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AIDING IN
POTENTIAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY EPAC AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT WRN CARIB AND LOWER GLFMEX. MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING VARIOUS FORMS OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN BOTH THE EPAC AND
WRN CARIB/LOWER GLFMEX BASINS AND EXPECT THAT SOME FORM OF
TROPICAL DVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR OR BEGIN TO OCCUR LATE PERIOD AND
THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
ROSENSTEIN
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TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032012
2100 UTC THU JUN 14 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM SALINA CRUZ TO PUNTA MALDONADO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO EAST OF SALINA CRUZ TO BARRA DE TONALA
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF PUNTA MALDONADO TO ACAPULCO

INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF ACAPULCO TO CABO
CORRIENTES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CARLOTTA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 94.2W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 45SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 94.2W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 93.9W

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 12.9N 95.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 14.2N 96.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.3N 97.3W...NEAR COAST
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.1N 98.4W...NEAR COAST
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 16.5N 100.0W...NEAR COAST
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 16.0N 100.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 15.5N 99.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N 94.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Because that's a perfectly logical conclusion to come to of models predicting a system 192 hours out. :P

Huh? Wait im confused...
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.