Tropical Storm Carlotta forms in the East Pacific

By: Angela Fritz , 5:25 PM GMT on June 14, 2012

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Tropical Storm Carlotta has formed in the East Pacific, and is heading northwest toward the west coast of Mexico, where impacts are expected to begin on Friday. Carlotta has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph gusting to 55 mph. A hurricane hunter mission is tentatively scheduled for 2pm EDT on Friday. Carlotta's rain is visible on Puerto Ánoel's radar this afternoon. The storm appears to be well-vented, with high-level outflow apparent on satellite, and thunderstorms firing on all sides of the storm's center. The storm is currently in an area of low wind shear, however, shear will likely increase as the storm moves north. Sea surface temperature under Carlotta is slightly above average—around 30°C (86°F)—and is expected to remain around there for the next few days. These conditions are favorable for strengthening. Tropical Storm Carlotta is the 3rd tropical cyclone and named storm in the basin, and is the 5th earliest formation of the season's 3rd storm. The earliest 3rd storm formation on record is June 7th: a record tied by Hurricane Connie of 1974 and Tropical Storm Carlos of 1985.


Visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Carlotta taken at 11am EDT on Thursday.

Forecast for Carlotta
Tropical Storm Carlotta is expected to continue on its path northwest over the next few days, as it approaches the western coast of Mexico, near Acapulco. Most of the reliable track models agree with this (GFS, GFDL, HWRF, UKMET). The GFS ensemble members are basically in agreement with NHC track, however, some ensembles are still suggesting that Carlotta's energy could jump the gap and transfer into the Gulf of Mexico early next week, which is an unlikely solution. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Carlotta to reach hurricane status on Friday. This intensification, though quick, will be short-lived as the cyclone interacts with land. Granted, the intensity of this system depends heavily on how close to the coast it gets. The mountains of western Mexico can tear apart a tropical storm or weak hurricane with ease. In any case, Carlotta is expected to bring heavy rain to an area prone to flash flooding and landslides.

Meanwhile, in the Atlantic
No tropical cyclone activity is expected in the next couple of days, though some models are suggesting an easterly wave could develop into a weak tropical cyclone in the western Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico next week.

Angela

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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Harry Truman is coming back? ... I have not seen too much sanity in the Whitehouse since Truman left. Kennedy was not there long enough to be proven either way.


I think Eisenhower was quiet sane too.
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Quoting Stormchaser121:

Where do you think this will go??
I think it'll probably go somewhere like northern Mexico or southern Texas.
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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31425
Thunder's rolling again, and I am staying inside this time....
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Quoting hydrus:
I know, but for what its worth, if you were born before 1960, you will probably end up with an old joke sitting on your lap..:)


It's a good thing you wrote 1960 and not 1860.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Oh no I'm talking about the future storm that is suppose to form in the BOC.


Ok, then forget what I said. :) But, it would be likely that if a storm does form in the Bay of Campeche, it most likely would move west in the time frame at which they are expecting development. The NW Caribbean development would be different. With conditions becoming unstable in the upper atmosphere, it is not unusual to see many areas of vortices develop at the same time.
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Quoting Grothar:


I live only 1/2 mile from the ocean on the Intracoastal. It rarely rains on the beach in those summer storms. You can see them building in the West everyday, but when they start moving towards the coast, many of them break up. Yep, that's what happens. That is why our water bills are so high.:)


Hi Grothar! Good to see you post again. Are you spending a lot of time at Greek Toni's place?
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Quoting Stormchaser121:

Where do you think this will go??

Honestly, given the steering currents, i feel its going to drift east.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Oh no I'm talking about the future storm that is suppose to form in the BOC.

Where do you think this will go??
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Do you ever tire of drinking the kool aid?

7 more months until sanity returns to the Whitehouse.


Harry Truman is coming back? ... I have not seen too much sanity in the Whitehouse since Truman left. Kennedy was not there long enough to be proven either way.
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
LOL Poor Gro,he,s the butt of all the old jokes
I know, but for what its worth, if you were born before 1960, you will probably end up with an old joke sitting on your lap..:)
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
I mean on along the beaches there is morning showers and the seabreeze blows everything inland. I'm assuming that's how it is on the east coast. Then the collision occurs and depending on which seabreeze is the strongest it will push it back towards the coast. Keeper of the Gate posted a visible satellite loop of FL. and it showed what looks like a thin line of clouds moving inland and away from the coast. That's the seabreeze.


I live only 1/2 mile from the ocean on the Intracoastal. It rarely rains on the beach in those summer storms. You can see them building in the West everyday, but when they start moving towards the coast, many of them break up. Yep, that's what happens. That is why our water bills are so high.:)
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Look at those outflow boundaries!
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Largo, not sure where exactly you are located, but look at what's coming......
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Quoting Grothar:


I wrote a few days ago that it would hit Mexico (all kidding aside) But after looking at the fronts and troughs moving in, I think it will come very close to the Coast of Mexico and move back South. Right now, it would appear that is would move North. (by the way, I hope you are taling about Carlotta)
Oh no I'm talking about the future storm that is suppose to form in the BOC.
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Quoting thunderbug91:

I personally don't trust the site. Especially when everyone says 40% rain chance and they say 90%?
It's a little odd, if you ask me....

Yeah I'm not trusting them either...they say that the western Gulf storm coming up soon will be pushed into Mexico. But I dont think it will do that
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Quoting Chucktown:


Its an upper level low, there is nothing tropical about it. The convection is being purely driven by daytime heating, outflow boundaries, and differential heating.

I've never seen it on satellite/WV, only on radar. In fact, as I mentioned, you rarely see much of this swirl except the impressive convection far away from its COC, and only in the daytime. I never said it was tropical, I asked how might it transition to tropical.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
How the hell is accuweather gonna try and predict that the storm will go into Mexico when their is nothing there yet?.The models have been showing a big trof coming and slicing that ridge in half.When we get closer in time we will have a better idea of the atmosphere then.But I don't believe the ridge will be that strong..


I wrote a few days ago that it would hit Mexico (all kidding aside) But after looking at the fronts and troughs moving in, I think it will come very close to the Coast of Mexico and move back South. Right now, it would appear that is would move North. (by the way, I hope you are taling about Carlotta)
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Storms starting to fire into Hillsborough again along the outflow boundary....
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Quoting weatherh98:
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


Do you ever tire of drinking the kool aid?

7 more months until sanity returns to the Whitehouse.



Can i get an AMEN


No.

+1 for TAWX13.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
From the Houston/Galveston NWS discussion made this afternoon.

THE
GFS SOLUTION STILL DEVELOPS A LARGE SCALE CIRCULATION /WEAK SFC
LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM AROUND THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND
...CLOSED-OFF UPPER LOW BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF ALSO PICKS UP
ON THESE LOWER SFC PRESSURES AND...ALBEIT MORE BROAD AND WEAK...DOES
MOVE THIS FEATURE UP THE MEXICO COAST THROUGH DAY 10. FWIW...THE
NOGAPS ALSO DEVELOPS A SFC LOW IN THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AT
HR 144. ALL OF THIS TRANSLATES TO AN EARLY WEEK SOUTHEAST-TRANSITIONING
-TO-EASTERLY FETCH THAT WILL PUMP IN GULF MOISTURE INTO AN ALREADY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. IF THESE SOLUTIONS GAIN MORE CONSISTENCY IN
THE COMING DAYS THEN EXPECT A BAY OF CAMPECHE/SW GULF TROPICAL SYSTEM
WITHIN A WEEK AND HEIGHTENED SE TX RAIN/ISO STORM PROBABILITIES.
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Quoting NavarreMark:


Anything can happen. The water in the gulf is rocket fuel.


Yo! Mark.
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Quoting Grothar:


That's right. That is the reason is doesn't rain much right on the East coast of Florida.
I mean on along the beaches there is morning showers and the seabreeze blows everything inland. I'm assuming that's how it is on the east coast. Then the collision occurs and depending on which seabreeze is the strongest it will push it back towards the coast. Keeper of the Gate posted a visible satellite loop of FL. and it showed what looks like a thin line of clouds moving inland and away from the coast. That's the seabreeze.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
I personally call them hypuweather.

I personally don't trust the site. Especially when everyone says 40% rain chance and they say 90%?
It's a little odd, if you ask me....
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Really warming up out there today. Temperatures have climbed into the lower 80s after early morning lows in the upper 40s! Tonight should be a bit warmer with lows around 55. Mid to upper 80s through the weekend, with 90+ likely on one or more days next week.
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Quoting thunderbug91:

it should be renamed INaccuweather....
I personally call them hypuweather.
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Quoting Chucktown:


Its an upper level low, there is nothing tropical about it. The convection is being purely driven by daytime heating, outflow boundaries, and differential heating.

No, it's reflected at the surface and very little in the upper portions of the atmosphere.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31425
Looks like the Michigan area is getting some nasty weather, as well as Florida.


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Quoting redwagon:

It's that 'Mobile Low' we've been watching. It starting spinning Tuesday N of Mobile, never stop spinning, although convection came and went. Which is to say, it shouldn't have a hard time crossing FL and making mischief somewhere up or down the ATL coast.


Its an upper level low, there is nothing tropical about it. The convection is being purely driven by daytime heating, outflow boundaries, and differential heating.
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Quoting thunderbug91:

LOL, Better lock your picnic lunches in the bank vault... The invasion is about to begin!!


Where's Tippi Hedren when you need her?
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Large hail with this storm, someone reported power outages in Plant City. By the way that's Paul Dellegatto.

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Quoting washingtonian115:
How the hell is accuweather gonna try and predict that the storm will go into Mexico when their is nothing there yet?.The models have been showing a big trof coming and slicing that ridge in half.When we get closer in time we will have a better idea of the atmosphere then.But I don't believe the ridge will be that strong..

it should be renamed INaccuweather....
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
that's because the west coast seabreeze is stronger than the east coast seabreeze, it needs to be the other way around for the beaches to get the rain. That's how it always is in FL. When we get later into the season the east coast seabreeze becomes stronger in the afternoon and pushes the storms back to the west coast.


That's right. That is the reason is doesn't rain much right on the East coast of Florida.
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
did you say the GFS has a Low there?
not me someone said the gfs showed a low there
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
How the hell is accuweather gonna try and predict that the storm will go into Mexico when their is nothing there yet?.The models have been showing a big trof coming and slicing that ridge in half.When we get closer in time we will have a better idea of the atmosphere then.But I don't believe the ridge will be that strong..
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Quoting Grothar:


It looks like an outflow boundary to me, or a flock of seagulls.

LOL, Better lock your picnic lunches in the bank vault... The invasion is about to begin!!
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
ty Gro,ive got some white in hair and beard...lol


Well, you write young. :)
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
thank you

not a problem, anytime.
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
is that a feeder band or outflow in that band crossing mexico and heading up to almost cuba/florida?


It looks like an outflow boundary to me, or a flock of seagulls.
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Quoting thunderbug91:

Outflow due to upper level winds.
thank you
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5100
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
505 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
POLK COUNTY IN CENTRAL FLORIDA...
SUMTER COUNTY IN CENTRAL FLORIDA...
HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
PASCO COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 545 PM EDT.

* AT 505 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
CRYSTAL SPRINGS...OR 8 MILES NORTH OF PLANT CITY...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
ZEPHYRHILLS...LAKELAND...LAKELAND LINDER AIRPORT...WINSTON...
ZEPHYRHILLS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...GIBSONIA AND POLK CITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.
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Quoting thunderbug91:
there is the Low 1015mb,pretty weak,but there nonthe less
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5100
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
is that a feeder band or outflow in that band crossing mexico and heading up to almost cuba/florida?

Outflow due to upper level winds.
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Quoting Grothar:
is that a feeder band or outflow in that band crossing mexico and heading up to almost cuba/florida?
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5100
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Quoting LargoFl:
yeah i agree, whatever happened to the afternoon thunderstorms here along the gulf coast?..inland and east coast gets everything now
that's because the west coast seabreeze is stronger than the east coast seabreeze, it needs to be the other way around for the beaches to get the rain. That's how it always is in FL. When we get later into the season the east coast seabreeze becomes stronger in the afternoon and pushes the storms back to the west coast.
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Quoting MTWX:


It is.
thank you
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5100

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.