Tropical Storm Carlotta forms in the East Pacific

By: Angela Fritz , 5:25 PM GMT on June 14, 2012

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Tropical Storm Carlotta has formed in the East Pacific, and is heading northwest toward the west coast of Mexico, where impacts are expected to begin on Friday. Carlotta has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph gusting to 55 mph. A hurricane hunter mission is tentatively scheduled for 2pm EDT on Friday. Carlotta's rain is visible on Puerto Ánoel's radar this afternoon. The storm appears to be well-vented, with high-level outflow apparent on satellite, and thunderstorms firing on all sides of the storm's center. The storm is currently in an area of low wind shear, however, shear will likely increase as the storm moves north. Sea surface temperature under Carlotta is slightly above average—around 30°C (86°F)—and is expected to remain around there for the next few days. These conditions are favorable for strengthening. Tropical Storm Carlotta is the 3rd tropical cyclone and named storm in the basin, and is the 5th earliest formation of the season's 3rd storm. The earliest 3rd storm formation on record is June 7th: a record tied by Hurricane Connie of 1974 and Tropical Storm Carlos of 1985.


Visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Carlotta taken at 11am EDT on Thursday.

Forecast for Carlotta
Tropical Storm Carlotta is expected to continue on its path northwest over the next few days, as it approaches the western coast of Mexico, near Acapulco. Most of the reliable track models agree with this (GFS, GFDL, HWRF, UKMET). The GFS ensemble members are basically in agreement with NHC track, however, some ensembles are still suggesting that Carlotta's energy could jump the gap and transfer into the Gulf of Mexico early next week, which is an unlikely solution. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Carlotta to reach hurricane status on Friday. This intensification, though quick, will be short-lived as the cyclone interacts with land. Granted, the intensity of this system depends heavily on how close to the coast it gets. The mountains of western Mexico can tear apart a tropical storm or weak hurricane with ease. In any case, Carlotta is expected to bring heavy rain to an area prone to flash flooding and landslides.

Meanwhile, in the Atlantic
No tropical cyclone activity is expected in the next couple of days, though some models are suggesting an easterly wave could develop into a weak tropical cyclone in the western Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico next week.

Angela

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Quoting LargoFl:
..stormtracker said earlier tree's were coming down by him


Where is he, Largo?
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
I once saw a movie starring Gust Front.


Didn't Gale Storm play his sister in that?
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From a previous blog.
What was bad is now getting a lot worse, the Colorado fires now over 50,000 acres:-

http://www.denverpost.com/breakingnews/ci_2085600 3/colorado-wildfire-burn-area-could-be-hit-by

On a completely different vein but connected to wild fires being started with a lot of other undertones.
Arc Lightning:-

http://cosmicconvergence.org/?p=1386

Worth a read.
If you wade through it and its quite interesting, then some of the ideas might make a lot of sense, as with climate change, they postulate natural electrical change, in the field of global activity.

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Quoting Doppler22:

Carlotta is looking pretty good


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Quoting LargoFl:
..stormtracker said earlier tree's were coming down by him
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Quoting LargoFl:
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Quoting hydrus:
Sounds like someone got whacked pretty good. They do look intense on satellite to be sure.
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
gust front=outflow boundry? looks the same
I once saw a movie starring Gust Front.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5458
Quoting Grothar:


Wow, you must have a big computer! I'd hate to see your keyboard.
no its normal keyboard my lcd tv has hemi ports and two usb connections on it i switch from my 24 inch comp screen to the 55 inch all the time but i mostly use the 24
i use compaq with windows vista pro
with 142.0GB of memory
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52257
....................................stormtracker. .more coming your way again
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
That was one of the nastiest storms I've ever been in, just got power back.
Sounds like someone got whacked pretty good. They do look intense on satellite to be sure.
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Quoting hydrus:
I was born 1966 in South Florida. Yes. Hurricanes have had a part in just about everything down there, culture included.
What'ta bout them hurricane parties?.
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Quoting Grothar:


Let's just say I am getting a little tired of the Jockey. I will be flying home tomorrow. So I will be retiring soon.


Greek Toni's in Spring TX? The owner of that place was my baseball coach when I was a kid growing up. The original one is only a mile and a half from my house.
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454. TXCWC
NOAA long term discussion from this afternoon - starting to mention development possiblities in the Western Gulf: "...CURRENT MJO IN PHASE 8 ENTERING PHASE 1 CONTINUES SHOWING FAVORABLE VELOCITY POTENTAIL ANOMALIES AND H200 AND H850 OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC/ CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE WRN CARRIBEAN/GLFMEX. BROAD SCALE ANOMALOUS H850 WESTERLY FLOW IN THE TROPICAL EPAC SUPPORTS BROAD SCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AIDING IN POTENTIAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY EPAC AND TO A LESSER EXTENT WRN CARIB AND LOWER GLFMEX. MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING VARIOUS FORMS OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN BOTH THE EPAC AND WRN CARIB/LOWER GLFMEX BASINS AND EXPECT THAT SOME FORM OF TROPICAL DVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR OR BEGIN TO OCCUR LATE PERIOD AND THE FOLLOWING WEEK."
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Quoting Grothar:


Wow, you must have a big computer! I'd hate to see your keyboard.

The spacebar must be the size of a nightstand, lol
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
That looks like a 65mph tropical storm to me.
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Quoting hydrus:

Carlotta is looking pretty good
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Quoting biloxibob:
Born in1951 . Not a met,just an md. So im an old guy that knows nothing about weather. Grew up in florida,so hurricanes are part of the culture.
I was born 1966 in South Florida. Yes. Hurricanes have had a part in just about everything down there, culture included.
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448. VR46L
Quoting NavarreMark:


I'm still thinking Matagorda Bay.


I am thinking Port St Joe Myself
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That was one of the nastiest storms I've ever been in, just got power back.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
you should see it on the 55 inch screen


Wow, you must have a big computer! I'd hate to see your keyboard.
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Quoting Stormchaser121:

If something forms in the western caribbean i think it would had towards the western Gulf coast. All depends on the steering currents


Yep, depending on when it forms and how strong it is. I don't think we will see much until next week.
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The way it stands, hurricane force-sustained winds will only be felt along the immediate coastline of Mexico, if that. I guess that's enough to warrant Hurricane Warnings though.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Hello, wasshingtonian115! I discarded my cloak. Well, for the moment anyway.
Lol.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
you should see it on the 55 inch screen

I could only imagine. I'm seeing it on a 17" screen and they look good...

The boundary passed me and now it's getting really dark here....
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Hi Grothar! Good to see you post again. Are you spending a lot of time at Greek Toni's place?


Let's just say I am getting a little tired of the Jockey. I will be flying home tomorrow. So I will be retiring soon.
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.................................come on..just a lil more west..you can do it
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Hello S1H2BTR.


Hello, wasshingtonian115! I discarded my cloak. Well, for the moment anyway.
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Quoting thunderbug91:

Look at those outflow boundaries!
you should see it on the 55 inch screen
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52257
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Quoting LargoFl:
.......alot of high clouds over tampa area now

Looks like maybe it will be your turn in 20 minutes or so....
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432. TXCWC
I see NOAA has a 1008 low in the NW Bay of Campeche on their day 7 map as of this afternoon. Reading their discussion they have favored last nights Euro Ensemble Mean in their forecast thinking today.
Link
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Hello S1H2BTR.
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Shear is dropping FAST in the west Caribbean....
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Quoting thunderbug91:
Thunder's rolling again, and I am staying inside this time....
.......alot of high clouds over tampa area now
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Quoting RussianWinter:


I think Eisenhower was quiet sane too.


Yes. I can agree with that. I just think that Truman had a slight edge over him.
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Quoting thunderbug91:
Largo, not sure where exactly you are located, but look at what's coming......
I hope it gets here, we could use the rain..local mets are saying our best shot at rain is tomorrow
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Quoting hydrus:
I know, but for what its worth, if you were born before 1960, you will probably end up with an old joke sitting on your lap..:)
Born in1951 . Not a met,just an md. So im an old guy that knows nothing about weather. Grew up in florida,so hurricanes are part of the culture.
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Quoting Grothar:


Ok, then forget what I said. :) But, it would be likely that if a storm does form in the Bay of Campeche, it most likely would move west in the time frame at which they are expecting development. The NW Caribbean development would be different. With conditions becoming unstable in the upper atmosphere, it is not unusual to see many areas of vortices develop at the same time.

If something forms in the western caribbean i think it would had towards the western Gulf coast. All depends on the steering currents
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Harry Truman is coming back? ... I have not seen too much sanity in the Whitehouse since Truman left. Kennedy was not there long enough to be proven either way.


I think Eisenhower was quiet sane too.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.