Tropical Storm Carlotta forms in the East Pacific

By: Angela Fritz , 5:25 PM GMT on June 14, 2012

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Tropical Storm Carlotta has formed in the East Pacific, and is heading northwest toward the west coast of Mexico, where impacts are expected to begin on Friday. Carlotta has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph gusting to 55 mph. A hurricane hunter mission is tentatively scheduled for 2pm EDT on Friday. Carlotta's rain is visible on Puerto Ánoel's radar this afternoon. The storm appears to be well-vented, with high-level outflow apparent on satellite, and thunderstorms firing on all sides of the storm's center. The storm is currently in an area of low wind shear, however, shear will likely increase as the storm moves north. Sea surface temperature under Carlotta is slightly above average—around 30°C (86°F)—and is expected to remain around there for the next few days. These conditions are favorable for strengthening. Tropical Storm Carlotta is the 3rd tropical cyclone and named storm in the basin, and is the 5th earliest formation of the season's 3rd storm. The earliest 3rd storm formation on record is June 7th: a record tied by Hurricane Connie of 1974 and Tropical Storm Carlos of 1985.


Visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Carlotta taken at 11am EDT on Thursday.

Forecast for Carlotta
Tropical Storm Carlotta is expected to continue on its path northwest over the next few days, as it approaches the western coast of Mexico, near Acapulco. Most of the reliable track models agree with this (GFS, GFDL, HWRF, UKMET). The GFS ensemble members are basically in agreement with NHC track, however, some ensembles are still suggesting that Carlotta's energy could jump the gap and transfer into the Gulf of Mexico early next week, which is an unlikely solution. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Carlotta to reach hurricane status on Friday. This intensification, though quick, will be short-lived as the cyclone interacts with land. Granted, the intensity of this system depends heavily on how close to the coast it gets. The mountains of western Mexico can tear apart a tropical storm or weak hurricane with ease. In any case, Carlotta is expected to bring heavy rain to an area prone to flash flooding and landslides.

Meanwhile, in the Atlantic
No tropical cyclone activity is expected in the next couple of days, though some models are suggesting an easterly wave could develop into a weak tropical cyclone in the western Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico next week.

Angela

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Quoting Tazmanian:
hi


all


so back from camping so did 93E go POOF why i was gone


95E went poof and 94E became Carlotta.

Welcome back tazzo
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
Explosive intensification is a more extreme case of rapid deepening that involves the central pressure of a tropical cyclone deepening at a rate of at least 2.5 millibars (0.074 inHg) per hour for a minimum of 12 hours. Explosive intensification is rather rare, as conditions must be exceedingly favorable for cyclone intensification. Explosive intensification occurs regularly in the West Pacific basin, with the greatest frequency off the north coast of Australia; however, it has occurred numerous times in the Atlantic basin, as with 2008's Hurricane Ike with the hurricane undergoing a 24 millibar pressure drop in 3 hours. Hurricane Igor in 2010 is another prime example. It is rare in the North Indian Ocean, but Cyclone Giri is a good example of a storm going through explosive intensification in this basin. In these cases, however, the pressure was estimated via satellite presentation, not measured directly.
Instances

In 2004, Hurricane Charley was approaching the west coast of Florida as a category two storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale of hurricane strength. When just off the coast, however, its sustained winds rapidly increased from 110 to 150 mph (along with a pressure drop from 965 to 941 mbar) in only three hours. Charley caused unprecedented destruction in the Punta Gorda area, and inflicted major damage across the state of Florida.
Hurricane Wilma at record intensity

In 2005, the minimum central pressure of Hurricane Wilma dropped from 981 to 882 mbar in 24 hours, including a drop of 53 mbar in less than 6 hours. This is by far the fastest intensification of any Atlantic hurricane, and possibly the fastest intensification for any system in recorded history. Typhoon Forrest in 1983 may have strengthened faster, deepening from 976 to 876 mbar in just under 24 hours, but pressure estimates for this storm were much less accurate. 2005 was also notable in that two other storms, Katrina and Rita, also underwent episodes of extremely rapid intensification.

In 2006, the minimum central pressure of Typhoon Chebi in the Western Pacific dropped 75 mbar in 24 hours, including a 60 mbar pressure drop in 6 hours, as it intensified from a tropical storm to a category four equivalent typhoon in one advisory.

In 2010, Cyclone Ului intensified from a tropical storm to a Category 5-equivalent in just 24 hours.Cyclone Giri nearing landfall after going through explosive intensification.Hurricane Charley nearing landfall after its rapid deepening phase.Hurricane Wilma at record intensity.
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hi


all


so back from camping so did 93E go POOF why i was gone
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18Z GFS is out!:)
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Quoting Grothar:


I think that was Claude Raines.
ummmm, I don't think so. Maybe Claudette Colbert.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5612
it's REALLY coming down hard here now!!!! Harder than it was earlier!!
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Quoting washingtonian115:
I was born in 1970...just do the math..

post 500 you did.


I am a 90s guy, year of the flying colors, sweaters, and colorful jackets... worst style a decade has ever seen.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
Quoting washingtonian115:
I was born in 1970...just do the math..

post 500 you did.


I bought a pair of shoes in 1970. Still have them.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
man o man, that looks just like central louisana last night.........BOOMMMMMMM
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No. But something is wrong with the entire internet. Youtube, Google, everything. It's not loading.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32281
509. TXCWC
A Comparison of this afternoon's EURO Operational, EURO Ensemble Mean, GFS Operational, and CMC/GGEM Esemble Mean - pretty good agreement on development and general location. Not matter what they say strength is at this point - only that there is good agreement on a developing low.

Euro Operational DAY 7


Euro Ensemble Mean DAY 6


GFS Operational DAY 7


CMC/GGEM Ensemble Mean DAY 7
Member Since: May 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 526
Quoting cheaterwon:


Greek Toni's in Spring TX? The owner of that place was my baseball coach when I was a kid growing up. The original one is only a mile and a half from my house.


No, I believe he was referring to the one in Athens. (Greece)
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18z GFS

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Quoting Grothar:


I think that was Claude Raines.


Halestorm did the music for it.
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Quoting Grothar:


Well, you write young. :)
LOL thanks bud
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I was born in 1970...just do the math..

post 500 you did.
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Quoting aislinnpaps:
Thundering nonstop here in my part of LA. I leave the rain in Navarre and it follows me home. Thinking of heading back to Navarre in a couple of weeks to try again.

Heya Grothar!


Hiya, paps!
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OK, who hacked the internet?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32281
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Yes, and Rainey Dayz was the co-star.


I think that was Claude Raines.
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Quoting LargoFl:
...wont get to me thunder, today's not pinellas's rain day, better luck tomorrow

I know. It's a shame the line died out before it reached you. Round #2 is here where i am now; it's really heavy rain, and thunder booming again outside.
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Thundering nonstop here in my part of LA. I leave the rain in Navarre and it follows me home. Thinking of heading back to Navarre in a couple of weeks to try again.

Heya Grothar!
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Quoting LargoFl:
gee am i the oldest>?..1949 here lol
Not so fast..u missed someone..:)
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Who is MTWX?
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Quoting LargoFl:
gee am i the oldest>?..1949 here lol


Not even close!!! LOL
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Quoting PlazaRed:
From a previous blog.
What was bad is now getting a lot worse, the Colorado fires now over 50,000 acres:-

http://www.denverpost.com/breakingnews/ci_2085600 3/colorado-wildfire-burn-area-could-be-hit-by

On a completely different vein but connected to wild fires being started with a lot of other undertones.
Arc Lightning:-

http://cosmicconvergence.org/?p=1386

Worth a read.
If you wade through it and its quite interesting, then some of the ideas might make a lot of sense, as with climate change, they postulate natural electrical change, in the field of global activity.




Excerpt:

After ravaging 22 million acres of pine trees in Canada over the last 12 years, the rice-sized insects have been feasting their way southward. Their favorite meal: the majestic lodgepole pine, which makes up 8 percent of Colorado's 22 million acres of forests. Before landing in Beaver Creek, the pine beetles tore through neighboring Vail, Winter Park, Breckenridge and several areas around Steamboat Springs. So far, say state foresters, the beetles have eaten through 1.5 million acres, about 70 percent of the all the state's lodgepole pines. The tree's entire population will be wiped out in the next few years, Colorado state foresters predict, leaving behind a deforested area about the size of Rhode Island.

The Pine beetle is now reproducing twice each year due to earlier Springs and later Autumns. They have never been known to reproduce twice. This has led to an explosion of their population. A great deal of the area where the fires are located contains thousands of acres of dead trees. This has lead to an increase in the fires. It is happening more and more in those regions.
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CENTRAL FLORIDA —


Severe weather has caused damage in Central Florida on Thursday.

In Seminole County, a massive tree was knocked down in Longwood due to winds gusting up to 62 miles per hour Thursday afternoon.

The tree hit a home in the Woodlands subdivision. The impact caused part of the home's roof to cave in.

Around the same time in Orange County, a tree also hit a house in Orlando.

Part of the roof collapsed on the E. Washington Street home, crushing a red car.

There were no injuries reported.
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Quoting rmjoeb1954:
Noticed our GFS is trending further toward the Mexican border with our potential development later in the forecast period.



Tropical Storm Hermine Crosses Into Texas (Sept 7, 2010)

That's the best way to get H20 into the centex lakes and aquifers. Hopefully some High won't be overly in the way.
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Quoting etxwx:


1952 here...we're gonna have to start a Boomer Brigade.

Dang, that's some nasty weather out there in FL and LA...ya'll stay safe! And let's pitch in for some rubber unmentionables for thunderbug91 - that was way too close a call with the lightening!
gee am i the oldest>?..1949 here lol
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Quoting hydrus:
I lived on a boat, and we would head up the Caloosahatchie river to Moore Haven and tie off in one of the cays when a hurricane threatened. Parties were there but not many. I will say that there not need be a storm for people to be in a partying mood down there. The Florida Keys rock and roll every night...:)
I still need to visit the keys before I die.I herd that's where all the old people go to hide away from their families and get down like they use to in they're younger days..right Grothar?.
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485. etxwx
Quoting biloxibob:
Born in1951 . Not a met,just an md. So im an old guy that knows nothing about weather. Grew up in florida,so hurricanes are part of the culture.


1952 here...we're gonna have to start a Boomer Brigade.

Dang, that's some nasty weather out there in FL and LA...ya'll stay safe! And let's pitch in for some rubber unmentionables for thunderbug91 - that was way too close a call with the lightning!
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483. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #32
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM GUCHOL (T1204)
6:00 AM JST June 15 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 21:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Guchol (980 hPa) located at 10.3N 131.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 9 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
90 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 12.3N 130.0E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea East Of Philippines
45 HRS: 15.5N 128.1E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea East Of Philippines
69 HRS: 19.3N 126.1E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea East Of Philippines
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482. VR46L
Quoting NavarreMark:


You know what they say about guys with big computers.


LMAO LOL
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Quoting Grothar:


Where is he, Largo?
altamonte area right by orlando
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If we get Chris then I will know for certain that the Atlantic is trying to compete with the east-pacific.Sorta like 08.Except for the U.S went to hell with tropical cyclones while paying the price.
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Quoting NavarreMark:


You know what they say about guys with big computers.


trust me thats not the case for me

my wife can tell ya that

i think she is happy
i got the computer
keeps me busy
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Quoting Grothar:


Didn't Gale Storm play his sister in that?
Yes, and Rainey Dayz was the co-star.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5612
Quoting NavarreMark:


You know what they say about guys with big computers.


:)
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Quoting LargoFl:
...wont get to me thunder, today's not pinellas's rain day, better luck tomorrow
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Quoting washingtonian115:
What'ta bout them hurricane parties?.
I lived on a boat, and we would head up the Caloosahatchie river to Moore Haven and tie off in one of the cays when a hurricane threatened. Parties were there but not many. I will say that there not need be a storm for people to be in a partying mood down there. The Florida Keys rock and roll every night...:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
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Quoting LargoFl:
..stormtracker said earlier tree's were coming down by him


Where is he, Largo?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.