Tropical Storm Carlotta forms in the East Pacific

By: Angela Fritz , 5:25 PM GMT on June 14, 2012

Share this Blog
39
+

Tropical Storm Carlotta has formed in the East Pacific, and is heading northwest toward the west coast of Mexico, where impacts are expected to begin on Friday. Carlotta has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph gusting to 55 mph. A hurricane hunter mission is tentatively scheduled for 2pm EDT on Friday. Carlotta's rain is visible on Puerto Ánoel's radar this afternoon. The storm appears to be well-vented, with high-level outflow apparent on satellite, and thunderstorms firing on all sides of the storm's center. The storm is currently in an area of low wind shear, however, shear will likely increase as the storm moves north. Sea surface temperature under Carlotta is slightly above average—around 30°C (86°F)—and is expected to remain around there for the next few days. These conditions are favorable for strengthening. Tropical Storm Carlotta is the 3rd tropical cyclone and named storm in the basin, and is the 5th earliest formation of the season's 3rd storm. The earliest 3rd storm formation on record is June 7th: a record tied by Hurricane Connie of 1974 and Tropical Storm Carlos of 1985.


Visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Carlotta taken at 11am EDT on Thursday.

Forecast for Carlotta
Tropical Storm Carlotta is expected to continue on its path northwest over the next few days, as it approaches the western coast of Mexico, near Acapulco. Most of the reliable track models agree with this (GFS, GFDL, HWRF, UKMET). The GFS ensemble members are basically in agreement with NHC track, however, some ensembles are still suggesting that Carlotta's energy could jump the gap and transfer into the Gulf of Mexico early next week, which is an unlikely solution. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Carlotta to reach hurricane status on Friday. This intensification, though quick, will be short-lived as the cyclone interacts with land. Granted, the intensity of this system depends heavily on how close to the coast it gets. The mountains of western Mexico can tear apart a tropical storm or weak hurricane with ease. In any case, Carlotta is expected to bring heavy rain to an area prone to flash flooding and landslides.

Meanwhile, in the Atlantic
No tropical cyclone activity is expected in the next couple of days, though some models are suggesting an easterly wave could develop into a weak tropical cyclone in the western Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico next week.

Angela

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 573 - 523

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26Blog Index

Quoting NavarreMark:


You obviously missed the striped bell bottoms.


And I'm glad I did...
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
Quoting biloxibob:
I was trying to figure out how to use a slide rule.
lol.I do believe my Dad has one of those on the drafting table. And it is really old..GFS has it way south now. I bet that will change.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
wonder if this will come true

The one on the west side of Florida looks to be moving west according to the GFS!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
I was born 1966 in South Florida. Yes. Hurricanes have had a part in just about everything down there, culture included.


Excellent year! I was born in Fort Benning, Georgia that year. Or so I'm told. Aint been back since. No idea how the weather is there. Lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
I was playin wit me Hot Wheels...Which I wish I had now, they would be worth millions. ")
I was trying to figure out how to use a slide rule.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
wonder if this will come true

It did last year for Lee and there have been numerous dual vortices since then, in the EPAC, NGOM and along SECONUS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ncstorm:
Fujiwhara??..One in the BOC and one on the west side of Florida

18Z Nogaps




Ah c'mon now I just don't believe that...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ncstorm:
Fujiwhara??..One in the BOC and one on the west side of Florida

18Z Nogaps




wonder if this will come true
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
My daughter was born in the same year and also love that little digimon show with the creepy monsters.You and MississippiWX are the same age.
Really I thought she/he was much older than me no bad intend is that he/she looks like an expert with tropical cyclones.btw I really love digimon specially the first I remember that I make pairing with Tai and Mimi together such good times.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4467
Quoting allancalderini:
I was born in 1995 where shows like DBZ , saint seiya , and Digimon where the most important shows of a kid`s life;)
My daughter was born in the same year and also love that little digimon show with the creepy monsters.You and MississippiWX are the same age.

Hydrus I still have some of my old strawberry shortcake dolls.Which are worth a ton of money but i haven't sold them yet.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4984
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No. Is it not showing for you? That's probably because your computer is several billion years out of date. You should buy a newer version soon.


See what I mean, Joe! Nite, TA.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PlazaRed:

I was riding round the Sahara Desert on a BSA motorcycle in 1970, which somebody else still has.
No roads much in those days but very easy going people. Nowadays there's tourists and motorways everywhere.
I was playin wit me Hot Wheels...Which I wish I had now, they would be worth millions. ")
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well boys and girls, I have to get to sleep. It is very late here. Play nicey, nice with each other now. I'll will try to catch up on the blog tomorrow night.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I was born in 1995 where shows like DBZ , saint seiya , and Digimon where the most important shows of a kid`s life;)
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4467
Fujiwhara??..One in the BOC and one on the west side of Florida

18Z Nogaps




Member Since: Posts: Comments:
557. TXCWC
18Z GFS - a Northern Mexico storm - models today seem locked into that building high. WHICH IS ODD SINCE NOAA IS SAYING THERE WILL BE A TROUGH ON THE EAST COAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. "...THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND FOR THE WEEK TWO PERIOD IS VERY SIMILAR TO THAT CONSTRUCTED FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD. A TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS..."

18Z GFS DAY 8


NOAA OFFICIAL DISCUSSION LINK
Link
Member Since: May 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 528
Quoting Grothar:


Forget how to post an image, TA?

No. Is it not showing for you? That's probably because your computer is several billion years out of date. You should buy a newer version soon.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32874
Quoting Grothar:


I bought a pair of shoes in 1970. Still have them.

I was riding round the Sahara Desert on a BSA motorcycle in 1970, which somebody else still has.
No roads much in those days but very easy going people. Nowadays there's tourists and motorways everywhere.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
I know, but for what its worth, if you were born before 1960, you will probably end up with an old joke sitting on your lap..:)


I resemble that remark.....lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


Rudy Vallee, Benny Goodman, Glenn Miller, Paul White, the Dorsey Brothers, now that was music.
Instead the Pacific will likely win out this year.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting rmjoeb1954:

lol. leave him alone. he's had a rough day.


It's OK. TA and I have been doing this to each other for years. You should see what he writes to me when I mess up. He is merciless. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tropicfreak:


70s hair and style looked more snazzy...

My mom still has this light jacket that she had from 1991... black with shapes shaded in either purple or bluish/green. Ugliest jacket I've ever seen.
Snazzy.?. Sounds like one of those electric wheel chairs.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ncstorm:


ahh..I remember White Snake..there was also Poison, Motley Crue and many other bands with big hair and makeup..the songs were pretty good!


Rudy Vallee, Benny Goodman, Glenn Miller, Paul White, the Dorsey Brothers, now that was music.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
If we get Chris then I will know for certain that the Atlantic is trying to compete with the east-pacific.Sorta like 08.Except for the U.S went to hell with tropical cyclones while paying the price.
yeah the two seasons end with 16 name storms Atlantix=Paloma Eastern Pacific= Paul.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4467
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Forget how to post an image, TA?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
Common apparel worn during the 1970,s was fairly gross, and not just here in America.


70s hair and style looked more snazzy...

My mom still has this light jacket that she had from 1991... black with shapes shaded in either purple or bluish/green. Ugliest jacket I've ever seen.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
Quoting rmjoeb1954:

did i miss out. i see cover of white snake's cd. if that what was it was really like, i don't want no part of it.


ahh..I remember White Snake..there was also Poison, Motley Crue and many other bands with big hair and makeup..the songs were pretty good!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well the 80's for me was a really fun time.I remember when I use to own a pair of pink leg warmers.CD players were just starting to reveal themselves(Yes don't laugh at us and they were very expensive.).Um I don't want dot n't get into this on the main blog.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32874
The National Weather Service in Ruskin has issued an

* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for...
western Polk County in Florida.
This includes the cities of... Auburndale... Lakeland

northeastern Hillsborough County in Florida.
Southeastern Pasco County in Florida.
This includes the city of Zephyrhills


* until 645 PM EDT

* at 518 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated
rainfall rates of two to three inches per hour associated with
thunderstorms over the advised area... localized flooding is imminent
or occurring.

This includes Interstate 4 between exits 22 and 48.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Keep children from being swept away in flooded ditches and drains.
Flood waters are usually deeper than they appear and may stall your
vehicle. Just one foot of flowing water is powerful enough to sweep
vehicles off the Road. Turn around... dont drown.


Lat... Lon 2820 8171 2800 8175 2805 8220 2825 8221
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting rmjoeb1954:

so sorry


Not to mention the parted hair.

Thanks for your sympathies....
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
Quoting tropicfreak:


I am a 90s guy, year of the flying colors, sweaters, and colorful jackets... worst style a decade has ever seen.
Common apparel worn during the 1970,s was fairly gross, and not just here in America.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1000mb in the BoC.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TXCWC:
A Comparison of this afternoon's EURO Operational, EURO Ensemble Mean, GFS Operational, and CMC/GGEM Esemble Mean - pretty good agreement on development and general location. Not matter what they say strength is at this point - only that there is good agreement on a developing low.

Euro Operational DAY 7


Euro Ensemble Mean DAY 6


GFS Operational DAY 7


CMC/GGEM Ensemble Mean DAY 7
Development seems certain now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
532. etxwx
Quoting tropicfreak:


I am a 90s guy, year of the flying colors, sweaters, and colorful jackets... worst style a decade has ever seen.

You missed the 80's then...Decade of the Big Shoulders.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:



dont youmean 93E?


93E came and went long ago.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
Quoting rmjoeb1954:
wash. i saw your blog. you were a child of the 80's huh? what was it like?


MTV videos, big hair and 80's cliche movies to sum it all up!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tropicfreak:


95E went poof and 94E became Carlotta.

Welcome back tazzo



dont you mean 93E?



and thanks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
HPC Day 7
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4984
Quoting tropicfreak:


I am a 90s guy, year of the flying colors, sweaters, and colorful jackets... worst style a decade has ever seen.
Ah then you should of seen the 80's
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Nevermind it's back. That's weird.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32874
Quoting Tazmanian:
hi


all


so back from camping so did 93E go POOF why i was gone


95E went poof and 94E became Carlotta.

Welcome back tazzo
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878

Viewing: 573 - 523

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron