Tropical Storm Carlotta forms in the East Pacific

By: Angela Fritz , 5:25 PM GMT on June 14, 2012

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Tropical Storm Carlotta has formed in the East Pacific, and is heading northwest toward the west coast of Mexico, where impacts are expected to begin on Friday. Carlotta has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph gusting to 55 mph. A hurricane hunter mission is tentatively scheduled for 2pm EDT on Friday. Carlotta's rain is visible on Puerto Ánoel's radar this afternoon. The storm appears to be well-vented, with high-level outflow apparent on satellite, and thunderstorms firing on all sides of the storm's center. The storm is currently in an area of low wind shear, however, shear will likely increase as the storm moves north. Sea surface temperature under Carlotta is slightly above average—around 30°C (86°F)—and is expected to remain around there for the next few days. These conditions are favorable for strengthening. Tropical Storm Carlotta is the 3rd tropical cyclone and named storm in the basin, and is the 5th earliest formation of the season's 3rd storm. The earliest 3rd storm formation on record is June 7th: a record tied by Hurricane Connie of 1974 and Tropical Storm Carlos of 1985.


Visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Carlotta taken at 11am EDT on Thursday.

Forecast for Carlotta
Tropical Storm Carlotta is expected to continue on its path northwest over the next few days, as it approaches the western coast of Mexico, near Acapulco. Most of the reliable track models agree with this (GFS, GFDL, HWRF, UKMET). The GFS ensemble members are basically in agreement with NHC track, however, some ensembles are still suggesting that Carlotta's energy could jump the gap and transfer into the Gulf of Mexico early next week, which is an unlikely solution. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Carlotta to reach hurricane status on Friday. This intensification, though quick, will be short-lived as the cyclone interacts with land. Granted, the intensity of this system depends heavily on how close to the coast it gets. The mountains of western Mexico can tear apart a tropical storm or weak hurricane with ease. In any case, Carlotta is expected to bring heavy rain to an area prone to flash flooding and landslides.

Meanwhile, in the Atlantic
No tropical cyclone activity is expected in the next couple of days, though some models are suggesting an easterly wave could develop into a weak tropical cyclone in the western Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico next week.

Angela

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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Should be 70 mph at 11 pm.

Not that high. I'd say 50 kt (60 mph).
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today is the day agnes formed 40 years ago and became u.s. costliest hurricane at the time since then its like the 20th
Member Since: June 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 80
Quoting washingtonian115:
Oh? that's interesting.I wish the public over here had more influence on the naming list for hurricanes.Just think of the really screwed up names that would be on the list.Hurricane Bruce Lee and Chuck Norris.

Give a kid a dollar, and we got ourselves Hurricane Buttface.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Excellent year! I was born in Fort Benning, Georgia that year. Or so I'm told. Aint been back since. No idea how the weather is there. Lol.





I celebrated my first birthday during Woodstock- bonus points if you can guess the date.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1232
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Bursts of convection going off near the center of circulation. I think we have a developing eyewall.


Should be 70 mph at 11 pm.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
617. VR46L
Quoting NavarreMark:


Aw come on. Your just messin with us. LOL


I am serious ...Its the Berlin institute that do it. Its practically self funded institution
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Quoting VR46L:


You know in europe they name every low and high pressure and people pay to have a pressure named after them
Oh? that's interesting.I wish the public over here had more influence on the naming list for hurricanes.Just think of the really screwed up names that would be on the list.Hurricane Bruce Lee and Chuck Norris.
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
756 PM EDT Thu Jun 14 2012

Hendry FL-Palm Beach FL-
756 PM EDT Thu Jun 14 2012
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613. VR46L
Quoting NavarreMark:
I'm gonna name this swirl Chuck.



You know in Europe they name every low and high pressure and people pay to have a pressure named after them
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Quoting hydrus:
Did it look like this?


Pretty much did. While getting use to the calculator I used to double check with the slide rule.
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Quoting hydrus:
Big storms lined up from Canada, south across the entire U.S. into Mexico...


I find it funny that there are over 10 severe t'storm warnings but not a single tornado warning.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
any 1993 babies?
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Quoting redwagon:
Your newly adopted Chuck is three days old, likes to party and throw up convection all around but not next to him, and he has the clouds all quiet down around 8 for dinner. He'd love to party in Tampa, if he can just get a little further south while maintaining his persistent vorticity and sponsor a wet-bikini contest in Tampa. Future plans are to cross FL Saturday night and maybe check out the GA and SC islands party landscapes, volunteer for some high surf swag for the locals.


The girls in Texas all want Chuck, but he doesn't want them.
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Quoting SubtropicalHi:


I had to learn that too. Fortunately Texas Instruments came to the rescue in 1975.
Did it look like this?
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Quoting rmjoeb1954:

dunno allan. looks 55mph. look at all her quandrants...
You only need 65mph in 1 quandrant. but the most shocking part on the blog is no one is insisting that the swirl in the northern GOM should be a TS or TD.
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Bursts of convection going off near the center of circulation. I think we have a developing eyewall.

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Quoting washingtonian115:
I was over in Germany at the time.


I don't but I know it was the worst flooding Richmond saw up until Gaston in 04. The James River overflowed its banks (this was 25 years before they built the flood wall) and flooded much of the businesses adjacent to the river. Travel in and out of Richmond was impossible because of the flooding, most notably amtrak because their routes ran right along the james from Norfolk, through Richmond and further north towards DC.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
The MJO is starting to show it's self now in out basin.Getting more moist in the caribbean.
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602. BDAwx
Hey everyone! An interesting day today, Tropics are active again (at least in the Pacific) and there was some severe weather... thanks for keeping me posted :)
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Big storms lined up from Canada, south across the entire U.S. into Mexico...
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Quoting biloxibob:
do you remember tropical storm agnes 1972?
I was over in Germany at the time.
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Quoting MarcoIslandCat5:


Storm On its way to the UK! :) some nice action For me!

Raining Hard Here In Leicester, England
Love reading the blog guys keep up the good work :)
Man have the folks over there been getting hammered.
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Quoting allancalderini:
wow I am probably younger that you november 1 is my birth date.


Check that, November 21st is mine haha.
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
Yes, and Rainey Dayz was the co-star.


LOL...........uzzzz guys too funny
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Quoting NavarreMark:
I'm gonna name this swirl Chuck.

Your newly adopted Chuck is three days old, likes to party and throw up convection all around but not next to him, and he has the clouds all quiet down around 8 for dinner. He'd love to party in Tampa, if he can just get a little further south while maintaining his persistent vorticity and sponsor a wet-bikini contest in Tampa. Future plans are to cross FL Saturday night and maybe check out the GA and SC islands party landscapes, volunteer for some high surf swag for the locals.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3276
Quoting biloxibob:
I was trying to figure out how to use a slide rule.


I had to learn that too. Fortunately Texas Instruments came to the rescue in 1975.
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The west coast of Florida misses the heavy stuff....Again.
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another round of hostile weather ... :c/
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Quoting Grothar:


:)


Is it the same as those guys who drive those big tricked out trucks?
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032012
500 PM PDT THU JUN 14 2012

...CARLOTTA HEADING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.2N 94.5W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM SALINA CRUZ TO PUNTA MALDONADO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO EAST OF SALINA CRUZ TO BARRA DE TONALA
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF PUNTA MALDONADO TO ACAPULCO

INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF ACAPULCO TO CABO
CORRIENTES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CARLOTTA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.5 WEST. CARLOTTA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A GENERAL
MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA SHOULD APPROACH THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO ON FRIDAY AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
CARLOTTA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...CARLOTTA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3-5 INCHES...75-125 MM...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10-12 INCHES...250-300 MM...OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF
GUERRERO...OAXACA...CHIAPAS...AS WELL AS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF GUATEMALA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032012
500 PM PDT THU JUN 14 2012

...CARLOTTA HEADING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.2N 94.5W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
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Quoting biloxibob:
do you remember tropical storm agnes 1972?
I do..Went snorkeling for my bike.
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Quoting MarcoIslandCat5:


Storm On its way to the UK! :) some nice action For me!

Lee's Fujuwaric existence last summer:

Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3276
.
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Quoting allancalderini:
wow I am probably the youngest of all people in here that was born in 1995.November 1 is my birth date.
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Cyclone Oz is awarding hurricane warning flags for guessing the landfall coordinates of the storm that the models are predicting.

Link to his FB wall
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Quoting washingtonian115:
A lot of kids born in 1995 in here.
do you remember tropical storm agnes 1972?
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Storm On its way to the UK! :) some nice action For me!

Raining Hard Here In Leicester, England
Love reading the blog guys keep up the good work :)
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Quoting tropicfreak:


1995 was my birth year as well..
wow I am probably younger that you november 1 is my birth date.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
What'ta bout them hurricane parties?.
I remember that when we would go out to eat,the placemats were maps,used to track storms. We used to fill up the bath tub with water and we could tell if a storm was coming,by the wave pattern.
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A lot of kids born in 1995 in here.
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Although any 7+day forecast should be taken with a full shaker of salt.
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Quoting TXCWC:
18Z GFS - a Northern Mexico storm - models today seem locked into that building high. WHICH IS ODD SINCE NOAA IS SAYING THERE WILL BE A TROUGH ON THE EAST COAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. "...THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND FOR THE WEEK TWO PERIOD IS VERY SIMILAR TO THAT CONSTRUCTED FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD. A TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS..."

18Z GFS DAY 8


NOAA OFFICIAL DISCUSSION LINK
Link



Seems they think the operational models are overdoing the ridging and troughing will prevail for the next couple weeks.

THE GFS AND ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUNS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS, ALTHOUGH THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ARE
GENERALLY MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE MAIN CIRCULATION FEATURES.
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Quoting tropicfreak:


1995 was my birth year as well..
We tracked many storms that year. We also had a flash flood in June of that year. We received 15.50 inches of rain in less then 9 hours. It was really bad.
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Well it looks like Japan is about to get a close call from its first hurricane of the season.
Should test the knots and bits of string that they have in place over the nuclear plants.
I think that a proper hurricane with high sustained winds and heavy rain passing by the Japanese east coast this year might have serious consequences for the remains of the Fukishima reactor buildings.
We had strong winds of about 80 MPH here recently and they tore the welded on blades of one of our windmills.Its going to be Russian roulette on that east coast this year.
Maybe on few other east coasts as well!
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Quoting allancalderini:
I was born in 1995 where shows like DBZ , saint seiya , and Digimon where the most important shows of a kid`s life;)


1995 was my birth year as well..
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
Quoting NavarreMark:


You obviously missed the striped bell bottoms.


And I'm glad I did...
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.