Tropical Storm Carlotta forms in the East Pacific

By: Angela Fritz , 5:25 PM GMT on June 14, 2012

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Tropical Storm Carlotta has formed in the East Pacific, and is heading northwest toward the west coast of Mexico, where impacts are expected to begin on Friday. Carlotta has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph gusting to 55 mph. A hurricane hunter mission is tentatively scheduled for 2pm EDT on Friday. Carlotta's rain is visible on Puerto Ánoel's radar this afternoon. The storm appears to be well-vented, with high-level outflow apparent on satellite, and thunderstorms firing on all sides of the storm's center. The storm is currently in an area of low wind shear, however, shear will likely increase as the storm moves north. Sea surface temperature under Carlotta is slightly above average—around 30°C (86°F)—and is expected to remain around there for the next few days. These conditions are favorable for strengthening. Tropical Storm Carlotta is the 3rd tropical cyclone and named storm in the basin, and is the 5th earliest formation of the season's 3rd storm. The earliest 3rd storm formation on record is June 7th: a record tied by Hurricane Connie of 1974 and Tropical Storm Carlos of 1985.


Visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Carlotta taken at 11am EDT on Thursday.

Forecast for Carlotta
Tropical Storm Carlotta is expected to continue on its path northwest over the next few days, as it approaches the western coast of Mexico, near Acapulco. Most of the reliable track models agree with this (GFS, GFDL, HWRF, UKMET). The GFS ensemble members are basically in agreement with NHC track, however, some ensembles are still suggesting that Carlotta's energy could jump the gap and transfer into the Gulf of Mexico early next week, which is an unlikely solution. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Carlotta to reach hurricane status on Friday. This intensification, though quick, will be short-lived as the cyclone interacts with land. Granted, the intensity of this system depends heavily on how close to the coast it gets. The mountains of western Mexico can tear apart a tropical storm or weak hurricane with ease. In any case, Carlotta is expected to bring heavy rain to an area prone to flash flooding and landslides.

Meanwhile, in the Atlantic
No tropical cyclone activity is expected in the next couple of days, though some models are suggesting an easterly wave could develop into a weak tropical cyclone in the western Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico next week.

Angela

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Quoting weatherh98:


Its also 12-18 hours of adrenalin

I love it

YES IT IS!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

You mean bare?

No, I mean bear. Bare is not a ferocious enough word.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

2006 was boring :P
2007 would be good though.
yea but i think when this hurricane season is over they should do the sst like they did for the 2008 season animation on youtube i like all those colors with the clouds lol
Member Since: June 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 80
Quoting weatherh98:
i was born in 98 The first storm I can remember was bill in 03 I was 5 and then there were two more in 02 and 03 that are more vague, then in 05 I went the Cindy Katrina (13 days of no power) and Rita then In 08 Gustav, I even lost power for 5 days. And last year lee. Been through more hurricanes than most adults

The only one I've been though is Irene... Lost power for 7 days... Still it was a cool experience.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7837
Quoting jeffs713:

EPAC has lower overall pressures than the Atlantic. It is even more pronounced in the WPAC.
Is that because in the Atlantic, the bermuda I
High keep the pressures higher?
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
I've been in tornados and hurricanes. May they be the last ones I need to go through. They may sound exciting, but they are not worth the adrenaline rush you might think you want, especially when you find out there's no electrity for days, weeks or months, there are no supplies to do the repairs you need to do, there is no food at the local grocery store to buy. After Rita it was over a month before there was fresh meat to buy. Never was so excited to buy simple chicken thighs in my life!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

2006 was boring :P
2007 would be good though.
haha ur coment 666 ooohh :/
Member Since: June 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 80
Quoting windshear1993:
i wonder why noaa skipped the 2006 and 2007 hurricane season for youtube and..they need to update the animations for hurricanes becuase it stops at 2006 which is a dissapointment

2006 was boring :P
2007 would be good though.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7837
Quoting jeffs713:

So what was the first hurricane you went through? And how old were you?
i was born in 98 The first storm I can remember was bill in 03 I was 5 and then there were two more in 02 and 03 that are more vague, then in 05 I went the Cindy Katrina (13 days of no power) and Rita then In 08 Gustav, I even lost power for 5 days. And last year lee. Been through more hurricanes than most adults
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Quoting windshear1993:
i wonder why noaa skipped the 2006 and 2007 hurricane season for youtube and..they need to update the animations for hurricanes becuase it stops at 2006 which is a dissapointment
on this website it stops at 2006 sorry
Member Since: June 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 80
Quoting windshear1993:
yea when it comes to weather i always wanted to experience a hurricane but tornadoes i just canot d it seems like tornadoes are more vicious than hurricanes..some day i want to experience a hurricane i know that sounds crazy


I had to put up with Isabel, Gaston, Ernesto and Irene... really scary stuff that I would hate to have happen again... especially Isabel... that was a biggie and the first hurricane I remembered. I remember watching TWC all day. I was scared as heck especially during the night time when the worst blew through. I'll never forget that thud we heard as we were about to turn out the lights (amazingly we never lost power), huge 100 year old oak landed on the roof above my room and punctured a hole in the ceiling. (I was too young to remember Floyd Fran and Bertha). I can't really relate to the tornadoes, because we don't see much of them around here, but in that period in August/Sept of 04 we had those tropical system remnants come up through here. And they (particularly Frances) spawned quite a few tornadoes in the metro area, one passed 5 miles to my NW. So yeah... I want a decent storm but not one that poses a threat to life and property.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
Quoting ChuckNorris:

They are keeping my name off the list until a worthy hurricane can bear my name.

You mean bare?
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting windshear1993:
yea when it comes to weather i always wanted to experience a hurricane but tornadoes i just canot d it seems like tornadoes are more vicious than hurricanes..some day i want to experience a hurricane i know that sounds crazy



Not really crazy, but not as fun as it sounds. We have had several brushes with hurricanes before, but the two i remember most was the inland flooding caused by the remnants of hurricane Juan in 1985, and hurricane Fran in 1996. My husband tried to cross a flooded road during Fran, and I tried to climb to fit my huge baby belly out the window to swim for it :-) At lease I could've bobbed on my back all way to DC!
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1231
i wonder why noaa skipped the 2006 and 2007 hurricane season for youtube and..they need to update the animations for hurricanes becuase it stops at 2006 which is a dissapointment
Member Since: June 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 80
Quoting weatherh98:


This has awfully low pressures for the wind speed and I know it's big but still, thats pretty low

EPAC has lower overall pressures than the Atlantic. It is even more pronounced in the WPAC.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5885
658. MTWX
Quoting jeffs713:

Tornadoes are a few minutes of sheer abject terror, followed by a few weeks of cleanup and putting your life (and psyche) back together.<BR>
Hurricanes are a couple of days of nervous waiting followed by 12-18 hours of a living he**, jumping at every unusual noise, followed by weeks of having your life turned upside down and your psyche turned inside out.


I couldn't find the words to describe.... Very well put!

Thank You!
Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1393
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Here's the 11PM intensity for Carlotta

EP, 03, 2012061500, , BEST, 0, 121N, 944W, 55, 994, TS

I was close... Anyway, be back later...
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting NavarreMark:


Cool. Maybe we can fund the NHC that way. Save the taxpayers some bucks.

Could not only raise funds for NHC/NWS with non-violent tropical systems., but plan surf and safe rain parties in palapas. Met students serve and concierge for tips, para-sailing along the outer bands, fishing tours,

All for the George-type storms, no Cat 1 s or anything.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3276
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Here's the 11PM intensity for Carlotta

EP, 03, 2012061500, , BEST, 0, 121N, 944W, 55, 994, TS


This has awfully low pressures for the wind speed and I know it's big but still, thats pretty low
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Quoting weatherh98:


Its also 12-18 hours of adrenalin

I love it

So what was the first hurricane you went through? And how old were you?
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5885
Quoting washingtonian115:
Oh? that's interesting.I wish the public over here had more influence on the naming list for hurricanes.Just think of the really screwed up names that would be on the list.Hurricane Bruce Lee and Chuck Norris.

They are keeping my name off the list until a worthy hurricane can bear my name.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:

Wonder who the YOUNGEST is??
I'm 12 lol

Well I'm not the youngest on this age bracket :P
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
651. weatherh98
12:36 AM GMT on June 15, 2012
Quoting jeffs713:

Exactly. Similar to going through a hurricane. I was excited when Ike came my way, but after going through 18 hours of sheer he** (between the entire BUILDING moving with wind gusts, to watching my windows bow with wind gusts)... I'm good. Seriously. The very mild anxiety I experience when I hear a chainsaw cutting into wood combined with the smell of freshly cut wood is just icing on the cake.

As a nursing student doing my psychiatric rotation right now, there are actually people still experiencing PTSD (Post Traumatic Stress Disorder) from Ike, and needing professional psychiatric care because of it.


Its also 12-18 hours of adrenalin

I love it
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
650. jeffs713
12:36 AM GMT on June 15, 2012
Link

All the info is there.

(I just Googled "2004 atlantic hurricane season")
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5885
649. MAweatherboy1
12:35 AM GMT on June 15, 2012
Here's the 11PM intensity for Carlotta

EP, 03, 2012061500, , BEST, 0, 121N, 944W, 55, 994, TS
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7837
648. windshear1993
12:35 AM GMT on June 15, 2012
Quoting allancalderini:
Can anyone give me a link of the 2004 Atlantic hurricane season where all the TC appear in order of formation? because I can`t find in YouTube. please that I have only of the 2005 ,2008,2009 ,2010, 2011 hurricane season.
they had one on there but im in thesame situation and i want thatyear so bad and they did one for 2009 which was a waste
Member Since: June 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 80
647. MTWX
12:35 AM GMT on June 15, 2012
Quoting windshear1993:
yea when it comes to weather i always wanted to experience a hurricane but tornadoes i just canot d it seems like tornadoes are more vicious than hurricanes..some day i want to experience a hurricane i know that sounds crazy


Not in this Blog it doesn't!! LOL!!

Didn't get my first taste of hurricane until Ivan in '04 when I was stationed in Biloxi (not a direct hit). That was exciting for me!

But then I got a full blow from Katrina in '05... That was enough Hurricane experience to last me a lifetime!! Prefer not to experience anything like that again!
Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1393
646. HurricaneDean07
12:35 AM GMT on June 15, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
Those would be awesome. If a hurricane had a name like that that hurricane would either be a fail or a really strong hurricane.Nothing in between.

Hurricane Buttface would come up into the Gulf as a category 5 then get smack by.a trough and go under the florida keys and out to sea, still a category 5. FAIL.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
645. weatherh98
12:35 AM GMT on June 15, 2012
Quoting allancalderini:
Can anyone give me a link of the 2004 Atlantic hurricane season where all the TC appear in order of formation? because I can`t find in YouTube. please that I have only of the 2005 ,2008,2009 ,2010, 2011 hurricane season.

Go to the winderground hurricane archive, I can't link it because im on my phone
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
644. jeffs713
12:33 AM GMT on June 15, 2012
Quoting windshear1993:
yea when it comes to weather i always wanted to experience a hurricane but tornadoes i just canot d it seems like tornadoes are more vicious than hurricanes..some day i want to experience a hurricane i know that sounds crazy

Tornadoes are a few minutes of sheer abject terror, followed by a few weeks of cleanup and putting your life (and psyche) back together.

Hurricanes are a couple of days of nervous waiting followed by 12-18 hours of a living he**, jumping at every unusual noise, followed by weeks of having your life turned upside down and your psyche turned inside out.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5885
643. allancalderini
12:32 AM GMT on June 15, 2012
Can anyone give me a link of the 2004 Atlantic hurricane season where all the TC appear in order of formation? because I can`t find in YouTube. please that I have only of the 2005 ,2008,2009 ,2010, 2011 hurricane season.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4401
642. JrWeathermanFL
12:32 AM GMT on June 15, 2012
Quoting MTWX:



I'm on the newer side of Y'alls age bracket, but not quite as young as some of the other folks on here.. ;)

Wonder who the YOUNGEST is??
I'm 12 lol
Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 12 Comments: 2455
641. jeffs713
12:31 AM GMT on June 15, 2012
Quoting MTWX:


It's one of those thing you want to experience once in your life, but once you do, you never want to experience it again...

Exactly. Similar to going through a hurricane. I was excited when Ike came my way, but after going through 18 hours of sheer he** (between the entire BUILDING moving with wind gusts, to watching my windows bow with wind gusts)... I'm good. Seriously. The very mild anxiety I experience when I hear a chainsaw cutting into wood combined with the smell of freshly cut wood is just icing on the cake.

As a nursing student doing my psychiatric rotation right now, there are actually people still experiencing PTSD (Post Traumatic Stress Disorder) from Ike, and needing professional psychiatric care because of it.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5885
640. MTWX
12:29 AM GMT on June 15, 2012

Quoting goosegirl1:


I'm on the newer side of Y'alls age bracket, but not quite as young as some of the other folks on here.. ;)
Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1393
639. windshear1993
12:27 AM GMT on June 15, 2012
Quoting MTWX:


It's one of those thing you want to experience once in your life, but once you do, you never want to experience it again...
yea when it comes to weather i always wanted to experience a hurricane but tornadoes i just canot d it seems like tornadoes are more vicious than hurricanes..some day i want to experience a hurricane i know that sounds crazy
Member Since: June 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 80
638. MTWX
12:24 AM GMT on June 15, 2012
Quoting windshear1993:
wow inever been in a tornado before sorry :/


It's one of those thing you want to experience once in your life, but once you do, you never want to experience it again...
Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1393
637. GTcooliebai
12:24 AM GMT on June 15, 2012
Quoting hydrus:
The west coast of Florida misses the heavy stuff....Again.


-__-

Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Give a kid a dollar, and we got ourselves Hurricane Buttface.


LMAO!!!
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
636. goosegirl1
12:24 AM GMT on June 15, 2012
Quoting MTWX:
Do I smell Bengay???



Why of course you do! Do I smell Pablum?
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1231
635. windshear1993
12:23 AM GMT on June 15, 2012
Quoting goosegirl1:




I am old enough to remember Agnes. I watched the flooding in PA on the news, and was upset about it. I was too small to know I was safe. That storm and the 1974 super outbreak influenced my childhood quite a bit.
wow inever been in a tornado before sorry :/
Member Since: June 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 80
634. Jedkins01
12:23 AM GMT on June 15, 2012
Quoting hydrus:
The west coast of Florida misses the heavy stuff....Again.



Nothing new, sadly we will be back in a drought in no time, it hasn't rained since last Friday when we had all that rain last week, its already drying out here and yet an unusually dry weather pattern is coming up to add to this, it looks more like what you would see in mid march or in New Mexico, not Florida in June. I guess I got too excited, and I can't really rely on the weather this time of year like I grew up with or like generations before me did. The Climate is changing...
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7588
633. MTWX
12:22 AM GMT on June 15, 2012
Quoting goosegirl1:




I am old enough to remember Agnes. I watched the flooding in PA on the news, and was upset about it. I was too small to know I was safe. That storm and the 1974 super outbreak influenced my childhood quite a bit.


I would have loved to been around for that one, though the 2011 one was good enough for me!
Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1393
632. goosegirl1
12:21 AM GMT on June 15, 2012
Quoting SubtropicalHi:


You were born in August 68 (Don't know the exact day)



Close enough- august 15, 1968. +100!
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1231
631. MAweatherboy1
12:21 AM GMT on June 15, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Bursts of convection going off near the center of circulation. I think we have a developing eyewall.


This is a tad old but it doesn't show any hints of one

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7837
630. washingtonian115
12:20 AM GMT on June 15, 2012
Quoting NavarreMark:


I'd like to see one named James Brown the Godfather of Soul.
Those would be awesome.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Give a kid a dollar, and we got ourselves Hurricane Buttface.
If a hurricane had a name like that that hurricane would either be a fail or a really strong hurricane.Nothing in between.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17084
629. goosegirl1
12:20 AM GMT on June 15, 2012
Quoting windshear1993:
today is the day agnes formed 40 years ago and became u.s. costliest hurricane at the time since then its like the 20th




I am old enough to remember Agnes. I watched the flooding in PA on the news, and was upset about it. I was too small to know I was safe. That storm and the 1974 super outbreak influenced my childhood quite a bit.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1231
628. MTWX
12:19 AM GMT on June 15, 2012
Do I smell Bengay???
Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1393
627. SubtropicalHi
12:17 AM GMT on June 15, 2012
The NHC or whoever names hurricanes should have a contest for new names. They really need some I's and K's.
Member Since: June 27, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 377
625. redwagon
12:14 AM GMT on June 15, 2012
Quoting NavarreMark:


Don't like the name Chuck? Okay, lets compromise. How about Norton?

I like 'Chuck'. Who on either side of FL and up north
to the islands wouldn't want to party with Chuck? Especially with the 5-10ft waves in his swag bag?
Then he can contract a tour guide out past the OBX for
some deep-sea hookin. TS Chuck will be remembered fondly for decades.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3276
624. SubtropicalHi
12:14 AM GMT on June 15, 2012
Quoting goosegirl1:


You were born in August 68 (Don't know the exact day)
Member Since: June 27, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 377
623. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:13 AM GMT on June 15, 2012
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Should be 70 mph at 11 pm.

Not that high. I'd say 50 kt (60 mph).
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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