Tropical Storm Carlotta forms in the East Pacific

By: Angela Fritz , 5:25 PM GMT on June 14, 2012

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Tropical Storm Carlotta has formed in the East Pacific, and is heading northwest toward the west coast of Mexico, where impacts are expected to begin on Friday. Carlotta has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph gusting to 55 mph. A hurricane hunter mission is tentatively scheduled for 2pm EDT on Friday. Carlotta's rain is visible on Puerto Ánoel's radar this afternoon. The storm appears to be well-vented, with high-level outflow apparent on satellite, and thunderstorms firing on all sides of the storm's center. The storm is currently in an area of low wind shear, however, shear will likely increase as the storm moves north. Sea surface temperature under Carlotta is slightly above average—around 30°C (86°F)—and is expected to remain around there for the next few days. These conditions are favorable for strengthening. Tropical Storm Carlotta is the 3rd tropical cyclone and named storm in the basin, and is the 5th earliest formation of the season's 3rd storm. The earliest 3rd storm formation on record is June 7th: a record tied by Hurricane Connie of 1974 and Tropical Storm Carlos of 1985.


Visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Carlotta taken at 11am EDT on Thursday.

Forecast for Carlotta
Tropical Storm Carlotta is expected to continue on its path northwest over the next few days, as it approaches the western coast of Mexico, near Acapulco. Most of the reliable track models agree with this (GFS, GFDL, HWRF, UKMET). The GFS ensemble members are basically in agreement with NHC track, however, some ensembles are still suggesting that Carlotta's energy could jump the gap and transfer into the Gulf of Mexico early next week, which is an unlikely solution. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Carlotta to reach hurricane status on Friday. This intensification, though quick, will be short-lived as the cyclone interacts with land. Granted, the intensity of this system depends heavily on how close to the coast it gets. The mountains of western Mexico can tear apart a tropical storm or weak hurricane with ease. In any case, Carlotta is expected to bring heavy rain to an area prone to flash flooding and landslides.

Meanwhile, in the Atlantic
No tropical cyclone activity is expected in the next couple of days, though some models are suggesting an easterly wave could develop into a weak tropical cyclone in the western Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico next week.

Angela

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Quoting JLPR2:


I don't remember ever seeing the Atl this moist.

Barely any seriously dry air out there.
if there wasnt any shear in the carribean we could be looking at another cindy or arlene
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These ain't no popcorn storms. This is just a piece of that massive line of thunderstorms moving across the CONUS midsection:



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 393
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
740 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS
EXTREME NORTHWEST MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 740 PM UNTIL 200 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 75 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES WEST OF HUTCHINSON KANSAS TO 10 MILES SOUTH OF SAINT JOSEPH MISSOURI.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 389...WW 390...WW 391...WW 392...

DISCUSSION...A COMPLEX LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME SWRN IA INTO WRN KS CONTAINS A NUMBER OF LEWPS/SMALL SCALE BOW ECHOES ACCORDING TO RADAR. THE LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD THIS EVENING INTO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS OVER KS... ENHANCED BY A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED STRONG CONVERGENCE AND MASS FLUX INTO THE STORMS.

MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME SECTIONS OF THE LINE MAY ACCELERATE SEWD TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND THREAT DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FORWARD PROPAGATING QLCS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27025.

...WEISS

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Quoting CosmicEvents:
Judging by IGOR, they don't incorporate the idea of "Would you name your child this?" when coming up with cyclone names.
No offense to anyone named Igor out there.
yea i know im just saying the names are funny like for example hurricane bud would have some people thinking about weed or something haha
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jump off the Juno Pier today it was fun!:)
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4957
Hurricane warning flag contest
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 474
717. JLPR2


I don't remember ever seeing the Atl this moist.

Barely any seriously dry air out there.
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Quoting tropicfreak:


You mean this worthless piece of junk??



That's scary just looking at it!
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Quoting MTWX:


That's what I do!

My wife wanted to go with me this last time, but I had to tell her no... She doesn't need to see some of the things I have seen...

Some of these "thrillseekers" need to have their eyes opened though!

I am a strong person emotionally, but working in some of these "ground zero" areas I have, even the strongest can't help but break down and cry...


I have a lot of respect for those who volunteer and keep at it once they realize how bad it gets. I spent 28 years in the Air Force and was vol-in-told throughout my career. Some at ground zero but many on the perimeter where we could establish an "airhead". Supplies/equipment offloaded and survivors and/or those who didn't were uploaded. Small packages were the worst.
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Frances and Jeanne 1 months without either..
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4957
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Quoting windshear1993:
the names for the pacific this year are weird bud carlotta.. i would never name my kids those names in fact thats the first time i heard those names can they come up with better names
Judging by IGOR, they don't incorporate the idea of "Would you name your child this?" when coming up with cyclone names.
No offense to anyone named Igor out there.
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711. MTWX
Quoting aislinnpaps:


I was there for the tornados. I slept in that hotel in Ringgold the night before it was demolished by the tornado. I was woken up at six am the next morning in another motel and ran out to potty the dog before taking shelter in my motel room, praying it wouldn't end up looking like the one in Ringgold. It was not a fun time to be running around Tennessee. Thank you for helping as you could there!


We were lucky here in Columbus, MS! We threaded the needle between the more powerful storms. Worst here was that we were without power for ~8 hours and had massive amounts of tree damage. But only 45 minutes north of us an EF-5 ripped through the town of Smithville, and 45 minutes to our SE, the EF-4 tore through Tuscaloosa.

I was assisting the small towns of rural Cullman Co., AL. (Federal and State focus was on the larger communities damaged). After power was restored to those areas, I continued by assisting on a cleanup crew in Smithville.
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is it me or has anyone noticed that the pacific is cooling significantly over the past few days?
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Quoting sunlinepr:
Big wave in Africa...

wow huge wave this time of year
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ask the cayman ivan folks about no power and water....try 3 months without either...
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Quoting Methurricanes:
The October Snow storm was worse, In my area.
Biggest hurricane i went through was charley had 110mph with higher gust... no power for a month.... couldnt get out of my neiborhood for two weeks. (I lived in deltona Fl) all pine trees and 90% of them were demolished and mulched the whole town. crazy stuff
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Quoting tropicfreak:


You mean this worthless piece of junk??


You misspelled Cat 5.
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Quoting weatherh98:


Jose popin in here


You mean this worthless piece of junk??

Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
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the names for the pacific this year are weird bud carlotta.. i would never name my kids those names in fact thats the first time i heard those names can they come up with better names
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Same here... I only lost power for 5 days during that event but the damage was far worse... My yard, my neighborhood, my whole town looked like it had gotten a bomb dropped on it... There were trees and branches everywhere. And we only got 4 or 5 inches of snow.
I personally only lost power for a few hours, but parts of my town where out for 7 days, and parts of the next town over where out for 12.
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Quoting windshear1993:
we had a hurricane bud haha
how about hurricane douche lol...... douche is causeing major flooding (ewwwww....)
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Quoting Chicklit:
wow,


That's at least 500 miles long
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Quoting Chicklit:
wow,


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Quoting Methurricanes:
The October Snow storm was worse, In my area.

Same here... I only lost power for 5 days during that event but the damage was far worse... My yard, my neighborhood, my whole town looked like it had gotten a bomb dropped on it... There were trees and branches everywhere. And we only got 4 or 5 inches of snow.
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Quoting MTWX:


I hear ya!

After the tornado outbreak in April last year, the area I was running supplies to has no drinkable water or electricity for 2 weeks! I was running supplies from 3 hours away to keep everyone supplied in the town I was in!

I couldn't imagine what going months, without access to needed supplies, would be like...


I was there for the tornados. I slept in that hotel in Ringgold the night before it was demolished by the tornado. I was woken up at six am the next morning in another motel with the sirens blaring a warning and ran out to potty the dog before taking shelter in my motel room, praying it wouldn't end up looking like the one in Ringgold. It was not a fun time to be running around Tennessee. Thank you for helping as you could there!
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Quoting Fishaholic25fl:
Pacific storms are so boring...... I guess when your in their way you seem to be excited..... Its a love hate thing i guess
omg they are and carlotta is a stupid name..aye carlotta come here sounds dumb as hell lmao atlantic is more excitement and adrenally
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Big wave in Africa...

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691. MTWX
Quoting PakaSurvivor:
You really don't want those life experience of going through a Cat 3 or above hurricane (typhoon), tornado, earthquake greater than a 6, flooding, fires or any man-made or natural disaster. But if you need your eyes opened, volunteer for the many organizations that do go to "ground zero" to assist in the recovery. You'll soon realize the cost of destruction greatly impacts the survivors and the individuals that responded to assist in the recovery,


That's what I do!

My wife wanted to go with me this last time, but I had to tell her no... She doesn't need to see some of the things I have seen...

Some of these "thrillseekers" need to have their eyes opened though!

I am a strong person emotionally, but working in some of these "ground zero" areas I have, even the strongest can't help but break down and cry...
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

The only one I've been though is Irene... Lost power for 7 days... Still it was a cool experience.
The October Snow storm was worse, In my area.
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Typhoon Guchol has already killed 27 people in the Philippines

Link
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Quoting WxGeekVA:
I've always wanted a Hurricane Dude. Imagine the news: "Dude is expected to make landfall soon" "Dude has some strong winds" "Evacuate because the Dude is coming!"
we had a hurricane bud haha
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Quoting MTWX:


It's one of those thing you want to experience once in your life, but once you do, you never want to experience it again...
I made myself hold still in an F-0 or F-1 in a semi-protected spot. She's a 9900lb F-250, hard to lift, but that F-0/1 did. It was actually more of a levitation than a swipe/tossup into the air, my truck was too heavy for those winds to send it somewhere. Lot of hail scars on top of my cab as souveniers, though. Wouldn't trade the physics lesson for anything.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3278
Quoting MTWX:


I hear ya!

After the tornado outbreak in April last year, the area I was running supplies to has no drinkable water or electricity for 2 weeks! I was running supplies from 3 hours away to keep everyone supplied in the town I was in!

I couldn't imagine what going months, without access to needed supplies, would be like...


Once we realized what was coming with Katrina ... We stocked our neighbors frigerator with food and water for a month. It worked well.


They have a generator
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I get snow in the winter... That's better than hurricanes.


LOL
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Pacific storms are so boring...... I guess when your in their way you seem to be excited..... Its a love hate thing i guess
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Thats a picture of "Monte Del Gato" in the town of Cayey, Puerto Rico, this evening local residents noticed some small rumbling sounds from the mountain, about 30 mins later the mountain started smoking at its summit.
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681. MTWX
Quoting aislinnpaps:
I've been in tornados and hurricanes. May they be the last ones I need to go through. They may sound exciting, but they are not worth the adrenaline rush you might think you want, especially when you find out there's no electrity for days, weeks or months, there are no supplies to do the repairs you need to do, there is no food at the local grocery store to buy. After Rita it was over a month before there was fresh meat to buy. Never was so excited to buy simple chicken thighs in my life!


I hear ya!

After the tornado outbreak in April last year, the area I was running supplies to has no drinkable water or electricity for 2 weeks! I was running supplies from 3 hours away to keep everyone supplied in the town I was in!

I couldn't imagine what going months, without access to needed supplies, would be like...
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Quoting weatherh98:


Not worthy of chuck Norris I understand
Thats what you get for being way up north. You don't get no action.

I get snow in the winter... That's better than hurricanes.
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You really don't want those life experience of going through a Cat 3 or above hurricane (typhoon), tornado, earthquake greater than a 6, flooding, fires or any man-made or natural disaster. But if you need your eyes opened, volunteer for the many organizations that do go to "ground zero" to assist in the recovery. You'll soon realize the cost of destruction greatly impacts the survivors and the individuals that responded to assist in the recovery,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I've always wanted a Hurricane Dude. Imagine the news: "Dude is expected to make landfall soon" "Dude has some strong winds" "Evacuate because the Dude is coming!"
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I think I've found one that meets the criteria



Jose popin in here
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Quoting windshear1993:
any 1993 babies?

Right Here.
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Quoting ChuckNorris:

No, I mean bear. Bare is not a ferocious enough word.


Not worthy of chuck Norris I understand
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

The only one I've been though is Irene... Lost power for 7 days... Still it was a cool experience.

Thats what you get for being way up north. You don't get no action.
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Quoting ChuckNorris:

They are keeping my name off the list until a worthy hurricane can bear my name.

I think I've found one that meets the criteria

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Quoting weatherh98:


Its also 12-18 hours of adrenalin

I love it

YES IT IS!!!!!!!!!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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