Tropical Storm Carlotta forms in the East Pacific

By: Angela Fritz , 5:25 PM GMT on June 14, 2012

Share this Blog
39
+

Tropical Storm Carlotta has formed in the East Pacific, and is heading northwest toward the west coast of Mexico, where impacts are expected to begin on Friday. Carlotta has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph gusting to 55 mph. A hurricane hunter mission is tentatively scheduled for 2pm EDT on Friday. Carlotta's rain is visible on Puerto Ánoel's radar this afternoon. The storm appears to be well-vented, with high-level outflow apparent on satellite, and thunderstorms firing on all sides of the storm's center. The storm is currently in an area of low wind shear, however, shear will likely increase as the storm moves north. Sea surface temperature under Carlotta is slightly above average—around 30°C (86°F)—and is expected to remain around there for the next few days. These conditions are favorable for strengthening. Tropical Storm Carlotta is the 3rd tropical cyclone and named storm in the basin, and is the 5th earliest formation of the season's 3rd storm. The earliest 3rd storm formation on record is June 7th: a record tied by Hurricane Connie of 1974 and Tropical Storm Carlos of 1985.


Visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Carlotta taken at 11am EDT on Thursday.

Forecast for Carlotta
Tropical Storm Carlotta is expected to continue on its path northwest over the next few days, as it approaches the western coast of Mexico, near Acapulco. Most of the reliable track models agree with this (GFS, GFDL, HWRF, UKMET). The GFS ensemble members are basically in agreement with NHC track, however, some ensembles are still suggesting that Carlotta's energy could jump the gap and transfer into the Gulf of Mexico early next week, which is an unlikely solution. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Carlotta to reach hurricane status on Friday. This intensification, though quick, will be short-lived as the cyclone interacts with land. Granted, the intensity of this system depends heavily on how close to the coast it gets. The mountains of western Mexico can tear apart a tropical storm or weak hurricane with ease. In any case, Carlotta is expected to bring heavy rain to an area prone to flash flooding and landslides.

Meanwhile, in the Atlantic
No tropical cyclone activity is expected in the next couple of days, though some models are suggesting an easterly wave could develop into a weak tropical cyclone in the western Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico next week.

Angela

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 773 - 723

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26Blog Index

Quoting allancalderini:
Is not to far south the tropical wave over Africa to develop into something?I think it is.


With August climatological conditions, that would be possible....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
772. TXCWC
% increasing in the Gulf
Member Since: May 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 528
The Philippines can't catch a break right now... They're getting hammered by Guchol and now they've just had a moderate earthquake



They're still cleaning up from Walshi at the end of last year, and they've already been affected by a couple storms this year.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
7 days till the Summer Solstice

There are now 189 days till the 2012 Winter Solstice



enjoy ur thursday
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
769. MTWX
Site I like to use to get the "big picture".

NEXSAT
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aislinnpaps:
I've been in tornados and hurricanes. May they be the last ones I need to go through. They may sound exciting, but they are not worth the adrenaline rush you might think you want, especially when you find out there's no electrity for days, weeks or months, there are no supplies to do the repairs you need to do, there is no food at the local grocery store to buy. After Rita it was over a month before there was fresh meat to buy. Never was so excited to buy simple chicken thighs in my life!


Aislinnpaps: You're absolutely right. For some reason, I "got this" after seeing the aftermath of Hurricane Andrew on TV. People were lined up for hours in the very hot sun just to get some water to drink. It looked awful. Their homes were completely ruined. Everyone looked hot, miserable and thirsty.

Of course, we can't forget Katrina.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

You misspelled Cat 5.


heh heh heh
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I know but it's coming out on visible as well... And if it's in the mirowave odds are it will clear out more soon.


needs a tad more work on the north eye wall
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
7 days till the Summer Solstice

There are now 189 days till the 2012 Winter Solstice

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
MODIS True Color images for 06/13/2012
Click any thumbnail for a full-resolution image



Florida and Bahamas
Aqua-1 12/06/13 1922 UTC
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
WP052012 - Typhoon GUCHOL

Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery



PPPPIIINNNHHHOOOOLLLLEEEE
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting windshear1993:
this the microwave image

I know but it's coming out on visible as well... And if it's in the mirowave odds are it will clear out more soon.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Judging by IGOR, they don't incorporate the idea of "Would you name your child this?" when coming up with cyclone names.
No offense to anyone named Igor out there.


Igor would be very much offending to any Russians that venture on here.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
that wave looks good off the african coast is there a chance it could develope?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Carlotta



Guchol Track


adios amigos
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I think we're starting to see an eye peak out on Guchol... by the looks of this it will be an epic pinhole

this the microwave image
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
WP052012 - Typhoon GUCHOL

Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting allancalderini:
Is not to far south the tropical wave over Africa to develop into something?I think it is.


nothing will form between 5 north or south because the coriolis effect isnt strong enough
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherh98:


id guess 4.75 but idk


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.7 4.7 3.7
almost but i was off
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I think we're starting to see an eye peak out on Guchol... by the looks of this it will be an epic pinhole

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Is not to far south the tropical wave over Africa to develop into something?I think it is.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4446
750. TXCWC
Quoting ProgressivePulse:



Seems they think the operational models are overdoing the ridging and troughing will prevail for the next couple weeks.

THE GFS AND ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUNS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS, ALTHOUGH THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ARE
GENERALLY MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE MAIN CIRCULATION FEATURES.


IF so, then Gulf Coast States should not let down their guard late next week.
Member Since: May 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 528
Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 JUN 2012 Time : 003000 UTC
Lat : 10:22:56 N Lon : 131:21:41 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.7 / 976.1mb/ 82.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.7 4.7 3.7

Center Temp : -75.3C Cloud Region Temp : -71.9C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW HOLD
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 78km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 20.0 degrees
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

What are the numbers on Guchol? And do you have a link for where I can find them?


id guess 4.75 but idk
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wow that cool!:)
Quoting sunlinepr:
Close up of that African wave...

Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4898
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

What are the numbers on Guchol? And do you have a link for where I can find them?


Link Japan Meteorological Agency

STS 1204 (GUCHOL)
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 15 June 2012

Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N1020'(10.3)
E13125'(131.4)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL190km(100NM)


Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N1240'(12.7)
E12935'(129.6)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL240km(130NM)


Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N1620'(16.3)
E12720'(127.3)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL390km(210NM)


Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N2020'(20.3)
E12605'(126.1)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL540km(290NM)

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Tropical Cyclones
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)


West Pacific Australia/Fiji Region Indian Ocean
Typhoon GUCHOL



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting allancalderini:
Not all the names are weird in the pacific list Daniel ,Emilia ,Hector and John are pretty known and popular names.
daniel for this year is almost the same way spelled for 2010 atlanitic danniel execept i think the pacific is a boy name oh duhh it is becuse bud was a boy name haha
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You're delusional. :P

T3.5 = 65 mph
T4.0 = 75 mph

What are the numbers on Guchol? And do you have a link for where I can find them?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.5 WEST. CARLOTTA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA SHOULD APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO ON FRIDAY AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND CARLOTTA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.
Link Carlotta Public Advisory

Goodnight!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You're delusional. :P

T3.5 = 65 mph
T4.0 = 75 mph


gee thanks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MTWX:


Thank You for your service! I too was Air Force for 7 years (before an accident ended my active duty career). I didn't give it up though, I'm Civil Service for the AF now.

After a year to "find myself" i also answered the call and returned to Civil Service but riding a desk is all the excitement this old boy can handle now. thank you for your service
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Close up of that African wave...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherh98:


Tnumber of 3.5?

isnt that like 75mph? or am i delussional

You're delusional. :P

T3.5 = 65 mph
T4.0 = 75 mph
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32505
737. MTWX
Quoting aislinnpaps:


I was up there to drop off my Daughter-in-law to see her family while home on leave from Germany in western Tennessee and then drove to the opposite side of the state and down into Georgia to pick up their Golden Retriever whom a friend had picked up from Atlanta. Our airport here in Louisiana doesn't have planes big enough to fly a dog that size on. While my DIL was visiting, KC and I toured all the battlefields in Tennessee and then I picked her up to go to the Papillon National Specialty in Chattanooga for a week. I wish I could have helped, but there was no way when I didn't know anyone and had a fifteen year old Golden with me. People can't understand the devastation nature can hand out until they've been in it.


I do have to say...

I couldn't have done what I did without the assistance of a few of the bloggers on here and Portlight!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Not all the names are weird in the pacific list Daniel ,Emilia ,Hector and John are pretty known and popular names.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4446
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is why Carlotta was bumped up to 65 mph.

14/2345 UTC 12.1N 94.4W T3.5/3.5 CARLOTTA -- East Pacific


Tnumber of 3.5?

isnt that like 75mph? or am i delussional
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
-
Quoting allancalderini:
lke that I am looking like that for the 2004 Atlantic hurricane season but I just can find for 2005 all the way up except of 2006 which I don`t care anyone knows if one video like that exist of the 2004 Altantic hurricane season.
i think they dont have one for 2004 and just the 2005 and 2008 were the only ones to do so i hope noaa does it for this year would be cool to see the sst again and i dont know why they didnt do it for 2009-2011 which is odd becuase of the fact they have a original 2008 season with just the clouds like 2009-2011
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


this kicked up those storms
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Chicklit:
Carlotta lookin pretty good sunlinepr.


Guchol is more scary because of Japan's situation.... Hope it goes down before reaching Japan...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MTWX:


We were lucky here in Columbus, MS! We threaded the needle between the more powerful storms. Worst here was that we were without power for ~8 hours and had massive amounts of tree damage. But only 45 minutes north of us an EF-5 ripped through the town of Smithville, and 45 minutes to our SE, the EF-4 tore through Tuscaloosa.

I was assisting the small towns of rural Cullman Co., AL. (Federal and State focus was on the larger communities damaged). After power was restored to those areas, I continued by assisting on a cleanup crew in Smithville.


I was up there to drop off my Daughter-in-law to see her family while home on leave from Germany in western Tennessee and then drove to the opposite side of the state and down into Georgia to pick up their Golden Retriever whom a friend had picked up from Atlanta. Our airport here in Louisiana doesn't have planes big enough to fly a dog that size on. While my DIL was visiting, KC and I toured all the battlefields in Tennessee and then I picked her up to go to the Papillon National Specialty in Chattanooga for a week. I wish I could have helped, but there was no way when I didn't know anyone and had a fifteen year old Golden with me. People can't understand the devastation nature can hand out until they've been in it.
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3159
This is why Carlotta was bumped up to 65 mph.

14/2345 UTC 12.1N 94.4W T3.5/3.5 CARLOTTA -- East Pacific
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32505
EP, 03, 2012061500, , BEST, 0, 121N, 944W, 55, 994, TS, 50
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
728. JLPR2
Quoting windshear1993:
yea i know im just saying the names are funny like for example hurricane bud would have some people thinking about weed or something haha


The only names that would strike me as weird or were unknown to me from the EPac list are Aletta and Bud, the others seem pretty normal to me.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Carlotta lookin pretty good sunlinepr.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
726. MTWX
Quoting PakaSurvivor:


I have a lot of respect for those who volunteer and keep at it once they realize how bad it gets. I spent 28 years in the Air Force and was vol-in-told throughout my career. Some at ground zero but many on the perimeter where we could establish an "airhead". Supplies/equipment offloaded and survivors and/or those who didn't were uploaded. Small packages were the worst.


Thank You for your service! I too was Air Force for 7 years (before an accident ended my active duty career). I didn't give it up though, I'm Civil Service for the AF now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting windshear1993:
yea but i think when this hurricane season is over they should do the sst like they did for the 2008 season animation on youtube i like all those colors with the clouds lol
lke that I am looking like that for the 2004 Atlantic hurricane season but I just can find for 2005 all the way up except of 2006 which I don`t care anyone knows if one video like that exist of the 2004 Altantic hurricane season.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4446
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Judging by IGOR, they don't incorporate the idea of "Would you name your child this?" when coming up with cyclone names.
No offense to anyone named Igor out there.


Yes, I'm offended, that's my son's name.

I love that name and the Monster Mash ;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR2:


I don't remember ever seeing the Atl this moist.

Barely any seriously dry air out there.
if there wasnt any shear in the carribean we could be looking at another cindy or arlene
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 773 - 723

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
49 °F
Overcast