Tropical Storm Carlotta forms in the East Pacific

By: Angela Fritz , 5:25 PM GMT on June 14, 2012

Share this Blog
39
+

Tropical Storm Carlotta has formed in the East Pacific, and is heading northwest toward the west coast of Mexico, where impacts are expected to begin on Friday. Carlotta has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph gusting to 55 mph. A hurricane hunter mission is tentatively scheduled for 2pm EDT on Friday. Carlotta's rain is visible on Puerto Ánoel's radar this afternoon. The storm appears to be well-vented, with high-level outflow apparent on satellite, and thunderstorms firing on all sides of the storm's center. The storm is currently in an area of low wind shear, however, shear will likely increase as the storm moves north. Sea surface temperature under Carlotta is slightly above average—around 30°C (86°F)—and is expected to remain around there for the next few days. These conditions are favorable for strengthening. Tropical Storm Carlotta is the 3rd tropical cyclone and named storm in the basin, and is the 5th earliest formation of the season's 3rd storm. The earliest 3rd storm formation on record is June 7th: a record tied by Hurricane Connie of 1974 and Tropical Storm Carlos of 1985.


Visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Carlotta taken at 11am EDT on Thursday.

Forecast for Carlotta
Tropical Storm Carlotta is expected to continue on its path northwest over the next few days, as it approaches the western coast of Mexico, near Acapulco. Most of the reliable track models agree with this (GFS, GFDL, HWRF, UKMET). The GFS ensemble members are basically in agreement with NHC track, however, some ensembles are still suggesting that Carlotta's energy could jump the gap and transfer into the Gulf of Mexico early next week, which is an unlikely solution. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Carlotta to reach hurricane status on Friday. This intensification, though quick, will be short-lived as the cyclone interacts with land. Granted, the intensity of this system depends heavily on how close to the coast it gets. The mountains of western Mexico can tear apart a tropical storm or weak hurricane with ease. In any case, Carlotta is expected to bring heavy rain to an area prone to flash flooding and landslides.

Meanwhile, in the Atlantic
No tropical cyclone activity is expected in the next couple of days, though some models are suggesting an easterly wave could develop into a weak tropical cyclone in the western Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico next week.

Angela

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 823 - 773

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26Blog Index

Quoting RitaEvac:


Gonna play a role in less than 24 hrs across the south, due to outflow boundaries and the works, especially with a large complex such as this. Betting for some storm redevelopment somewhere out there


I think you're right. Better than a drought at least.
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3163
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Credit to wxrisk.com


that was a great shot!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032012
800 PM PDT THU JUN 14 2012

...CARLOTTA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 94.7W
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 460 MI...745 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES

Yep. 65...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
What I think is dumb, is people overreact to a storm getting named, its all over the news when a 45mph Tropical storm makes landfall, but ignored when 60-65mph nor-easter whacks New England, and often with Hurricane force gusts at the coast.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
T.C.F.W.
R.I. FLAG FLAG
03E/TS/C/CX
MARK
10.25N/93.68W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54893
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032012
800 PM PDT THU JUN 14 2012

...CARLOTTA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 94.7W
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 460 MI...745 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32565
Power House storms from TX north into Plains









Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RitaEvac:


Local stations in Houston say that is to retrograde west towards TX as a upper Low/trough

The swirl near pensacola?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Does anyone but me see the swirl in the GOM near the panhandle?


Local stations in Houston say that is to retrograde west towards TX as a upper Low/trough
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Does anyone but me see the swirl in the GOM near the panhandle?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aislinnpaps:


I hope not. Rain is fine, but no serious storms that can do damage.


Gonna play a role in less than 24 hrs across the south, due to outflow boundaries and the works, especially with a large complex such as this. Betting for some storm redevelopment somewhere out there
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RitaEvac:
Serious derecho going on in the plains, that could play a role in storms in TX and LA down the road



I hope not. Rain is fine, but no serious storms that can do damage.
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3163
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Credit to wxrisk.com

Wow. Powerful and beautiful.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Katrina showed us what could have happened with 8 children and 7 adults in one house. Now we were prepared( we thought) had chainsaw lights water and some food in attic the rest close by. Boats tied the house with enough rope to float up but didn't really think it would get that bad when in reality it just would have taken a wobble.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Credit to wxrisk.com
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Storms in FL panhandle moving west, derecho in the plains moving SE, seeing a squeeze play down the road somewhere
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Serious derecho going on in the plains, that could play a role in storms in TX and LA down the road

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
And I'm not even going to start to talk about Katrina.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Vaccarella Family - Hurricane Katrina

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Uploaded by askwestley on Oct 3, 2006


Video taken by Guerra Family after Hurricane Katrina. Chalmette, LA.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ivan was a bad boy!!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Should wake up with a hurricane.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32565
Quoting windshear1993:
thats cool i asked that becuase inez was in 66


Then I guess if after July 7 . I do remember taking a trip to Mississippi when I was very young and everything just being gone. I was about 3 but still remember everything even the smells.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hurricane George stayed to long too and dumped a little rain.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
797. wpb
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
723 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2012

.AVIATION...WL EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. SLIGHT
THREAT OF TSTMS MOVING CLOSE TO KPBI LATER THIS EVENING AND A FEW
SHWRS CLOSE TO KFLL, KMIA. SFC WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND
MOSTLY VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH SEA BREEZES DOMINATING ONCE AGAIN
FROM MID-MORNING FRIDAY ON. A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS COULD DEVELOP

give the forecaster an F being nice too.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Link
Look at FL.
BOOM
Notice the swirl by the panhandle...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiBoy:
I hope this is not to far out there,can a storm develope out of energy spun off from another?As in the case we have right now with the storm in Pacific.Ya'lls thoughts/


Yes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting downdabayou:
Windshear1993. Not sure what year. When I was younger didnt pay a lot of attention to names, just new every so often we got everything new.
thats cool i asked that becuase inez was in 66
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Any thing going to come out of that blob comeing off of Yucatan?I know the modles are predicting something?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Windshear1993. Not sure what year. When I was younger didnt pay a lot of attention to names, just new every so often we got everything new.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tropicfreak:


Igor would be very much offending to any Russians that venture on here.
I don't think so. It was Ivan who was Terrible to the Russian populace...Igor was a meshugana.
.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5655
Quoting downdabayou:
Weather98 . Yes Juan in 85 brought a lot of water and it stayed for overa week. Ike would of had water over our windows if we would not of raised it after Rita.


Ike brought about 5-6 feet up on the lake in mandeville too
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:


The atmosphere, given to chaos as a rule, will trend toward it given the right conditions aloft and at the surface.
Thanks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherh98:
stormtracker2k said 56.. who is lying



well the NWS said at least 60 mph in some spots :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
the right linkie dinkie..

www.wunderground.com/tropica
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Weather98 . Yes Juan in 85 brought a lot of water and it stayed for overa week. Ike would of had water over our windows if we would not of raised it after Rita.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wpb:
bad t storms in se fla tonight. wide areas of power out lightning with winds to 55 mph
stormtracker2k said 56.. who is lying
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting downdabayou:
Hi! I don't usually comment but, born in 66, lived my whole life in terrebonne parish ( on the bayou) . Storms are a rush but the aftermath isn't. Living with everyone around lives turn apart is hard. Rita was the first storm we every left the state for and only because we did not want to have kids on the top of the house after watching new orleansfor Katrina. We finaly were able to return home from k. One day got cable the next then decided we were leaving to next morning for rita, good thing too as we had water inside. I will never stay for anything above a 1 again. And ofcouse we had a little storm called Gustav and were not even allowed in town for several days. I would rather get a direct hit then a storm go to upper TX , that's our water storms.
did u g through inez?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting thunderbug91:
What "match/spark" is going to set this on fire?. Re post #110
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
782. wpb
bad t storms in se fla tonight. wide areas of power out lightning with winds to 55 mph
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
During active Atlantic Hurricanes and Tropical Storms, 90% of the links I use come from one site, the wundergrounds Tropical & Hurricane page.


That brings you to kenna doll
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiBoy:
I hope this is not to far out there,can a storm develope out of energy spun off from another?As in the case we have right now with the storm in Pacific.Ya'lls thoughts/


The atmosphere, given to chaos as a rule, will trend toward it given the right conditions aloft and at the surface.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting downdabayou:
Hi! I don't usually comment but, born in 66, lived my whole life in terrebonne parish ( on the bayou) . Storms are a rush but the aftermath isn't. Living with everyone around lives turn apart is hard. Rita was the first storm we every left the state for and only because we did not want to have kids on the top of the house after watching new orleansfor Katrina. We finaly were able to return home from k. One day got cable the next then decided we were leaving to next morning for rita, good thing too as we had water inside. I will never stay for anything above a 1 again. And ofcouse we had a little storm called Gustav and were not even allowed in town for several days. I would rather get a direct hit then a storm go to upper TX , that's our water storms.


especially ones that skirt the coast
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
During active Atlantic Hurricanes and Tropical Storms, 90% of the links I use come from one site, the wundergrounds Tropical & Hurricane page.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TXCWC:
% increasing in the Gulf


cue jaws music
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I hope this is not to far out there,can a storm develope out of energy spun off from another?As in the case we have right now with the storm in Pacific.Ya'lls thoughts/
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hi! I don't usually comment but, born in 66, lived my whole life in terrebonne parish ( on the bayou) . Storms are a rush but the aftermath isn't. Living with everyone around lives turn apart is hard. Rita was the first storm we every left the state for and only because we did not want to have kids on the top of the house after watching new orleansfor Katrina. We finaly were able to return home from k. One day got cable the next then decided we were leaving to next morning for rita, good thing too as we had water inside. I will never stay for anything above a 1 again. And ofcouse we had a little storm called Gustav and were not even allowed in town for several days. I would rather get a direct hit then a storm go to upper TX , that's our water storms.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Galveston, 4 years post Ike, A wunderblog
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting allancalderini:
Is not to far south the tropical wave over Africa to develop into something?I think it is.


With August climatological conditions, that would be possible....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 823 - 773

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Partly Cloudy
32 °F
Partly Cloudy