Tropical Storm Carlotta forms in the East Pacific

By: Angela Fritz , 5:25 PM GMT on June 14, 2012

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Tropical Storm Carlotta has formed in the East Pacific, and is heading northwest toward the west coast of Mexico, where impacts are expected to begin on Friday. Carlotta has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph gusting to 55 mph. A hurricane hunter mission is tentatively scheduled for 2pm EDT on Friday. Carlotta's rain is visible on Puerto Ánoel's radar this afternoon. The storm appears to be well-vented, with high-level outflow apparent on satellite, and thunderstorms firing on all sides of the storm's center. The storm is currently in an area of low wind shear, however, shear will likely increase as the storm moves north. Sea surface temperature under Carlotta is slightly above average—around 30°C (86°F)—and is expected to remain around there for the next few days. These conditions are favorable for strengthening. Tropical Storm Carlotta is the 3rd tropical cyclone and named storm in the basin, and is the 5th earliest formation of the season's 3rd storm. The earliest 3rd storm formation on record is June 7th: a record tied by Hurricane Connie of 1974 and Tropical Storm Carlos of 1985.


Visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Carlotta taken at 11am EDT on Thursday.

Forecast for Carlotta
Tropical Storm Carlotta is expected to continue on its path northwest over the next few days, as it approaches the western coast of Mexico, near Acapulco. Most of the reliable track models agree with this (GFS, GFDL, HWRF, UKMET). The GFS ensemble members are basically in agreement with NHC track, however, some ensembles are still suggesting that Carlotta's energy could jump the gap and transfer into the Gulf of Mexico early next week, which is an unlikely solution. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Carlotta to reach hurricane status on Friday. This intensification, though quick, will be short-lived as the cyclone interacts with land. Granted, the intensity of this system depends heavily on how close to the coast it gets. The mountains of western Mexico can tear apart a tropical storm or weak hurricane with ease. In any case, Carlotta is expected to bring heavy rain to an area prone to flash flooding and landslides.

Meanwhile, in the Atlantic
No tropical cyclone activity is expected in the next couple of days, though some models are suggesting an easterly wave could develop into a weak tropical cyclone in the western Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico next week.

Angela

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1273. HurricaneHunterJoe
4:46 PM GMT on June 15, 2012
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
large bombs come in small packages
Yup,Think Andrew
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5222
1272. STXHurricanes2012
4:16 PM GMT on June 15, 2012
Btw I am leaving tomorrow morning at 4 am!
Member Since: June 4, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 767
1271. STXHurricanes2012
4:13 PM GMT on June 15, 2012
Quoting weatherh98:
TA13 lied

?
Member Since: June 4, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 767
1270. opal92nwf
4:12 PM GMT on June 15, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
...........which way is the headed?

It seems pretty stationary, though it would be interesting to see one of those move over land.
Member Since: May 12, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 2610
1269. jeffs713
4:11 PM GMT on June 15, 2012
Quoting weatherh98:


Is it EWRC???

No. You have to have a strong eye wall, first. Carlotta inhaled a good chunk of dry air, which you can see on IR and WV imagery. It tore up her northern side, leaving a sizable gap in her formative eye wall. She will need to close off that gap, and THEN she can intensify. That said, I don't think she has enough time to intensify, due to land interaction (mountains go up pretty steeply from the coast).

She might close off, but I wouldn't hold my breath. Considering everything, I think she's peaked, at around 95mph.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5881
1268. weatherh98
4:11 PM GMT on June 15, 2012
Quoting Hurricane1216:


Here:

3.5 = 55 kts4.0 = 65 kts4.5 =  75 kts5.0 = 90kts
90 kts = 104 mph 
TA13 lied
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6493
1266. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
4:10 PM GMT on June 15, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1265. weatherh98
4:10 PM GMT on June 15, 2012
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

MAweather showed that yesterday.


didnt see it
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6493
1264. STXHurricanes2012
4:10 PM GMT on June 15, 2012
Quoting InconvenientStorm:

Chill out. I thought you had that road trip to go on...

lol u chill! I think I know u being another blogger before.
Member Since: June 4, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 767
1263. weatherh98
4:09 PM GMT on June 15, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:


oh stop drooling!
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6493
1262. tropicfreak
4:09 PM GMT on June 15, 2012
To me, this looks a bit stronger than an 80 mph hurricane.

Looks quite healthy and symmetrical, but lacking a bit of outflow on the southern quad, not uncommon to see that out of tropical systems.

Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6877
1261. Hurricane1216
4:09 PM GMT on June 15, 2012
Quoting weatherh98:
you sure

3.5 is 65 and 4.0 is 75.. ik that for sure, so if you extrapolate, it would be 95


Here:

3.5 = 55 kts4.0 = 65 kts4.5 =  75 kts5.0 = 90kts
90 kts = 104 mph 
Member Since: March 3, 2012 Posts: 15 Comments: 307
1260. opal92nwf
4:09 PM GMT on June 15, 2012
Quoting Hurricane1216:


This is the satellite image of it:


Wow!
Member Since: May 12, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 2610
1259. HurricaneDean07
4:09 PM GMT on June 15, 2012
Quoting weatherh98:


nino 3.4 has cooled

MAweather showed that yesterday.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
1258. weatherh98
4:08 PM GMT on June 15, 2012
Quoting InconvenientStorm:
Northern eyewall is in peril. Don't think she'll be able to wrap the convection and close off that crucial part of the system in time. Land interaction is a killer.

A 95mph TC is nothing to play around with.


negative nelly lol
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6493
1257. LargoFl
4:08 PM GMT on June 15, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38483
1255. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:06 PM GMT on June 15, 2012
T.C.F.W.
R.I. FLAG ON
03E/XH/C/C2
MARK
14.01N/95.96W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53835
1254. Hurricane1216
4:05 PM GMT on June 15, 2012
Quoting opal92nwf:
Look at that swirl.


This is the satellite image of it:

Member Since: March 3, 2012 Posts: 15 Comments: 307
1252. weatherh98
4:05 PM GMT on June 15, 2012
Quoting Hurricane1216:


Actually, 5.0 Dvorak number translates into 105 mph wind speeds.
you sure

3.5 is 65 and 4.0 is 75.. ik that for sure, so if you extrapolate, it would be 95

edit just saw it was 105
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6493
1251. LargoFl
4:05 PM GMT on June 15, 2012
Quoting opal92nwf:
Look at that swirl.
...........which way is the headed?
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38483
1250. CybrTeddy
4:04 PM GMT on June 15, 2012
Quoting weatherh98:


nice mcv


Watch it closely, MCV's over warm SST and favorable conditions have a chance to develop into something more if given long time over water like this might have and has had.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24019
1249. STXHurricanes2012
4:02 PM GMT on June 15, 2012
She has NOT PEAKED!!! LOL!
Member Since: June 4, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 767
1248. weatherh98
4:02 PM GMT on June 15, 2012
Quoting opal92nwf:
Look at that swirl.


nice mcv
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6493
1247. Hurricane1216
4:02 PM GMT on June 15, 2012
Quoting weatherh98:



95MPH!!!!


Actually, 5.0 Dvorak number translates into 105 mph wind speeds.
Member Since: March 3, 2012 Posts: 15 Comments: 307
1246. weatherh98
4:02 PM GMT on June 15, 2012
Quoting Tazmanian:


nino 3.4 has cooled
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6493
1245. opal92nwf
4:01 PM GMT on June 15, 2012
Look at that swirl.
Member Since: May 12, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 2610
1244. weatherh98
4:01 PM GMT on June 15, 2012
Quoting InconvenientStorm:
No I think she peaked, Folks.


Not according to ADT
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6493
1243. Tazmanian
4:01 PM GMT on June 15, 2012
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115088
1242. HurricaneDean07
4:01 PM GMT on June 15, 2012
Quoting ILwthrfan:

That may be a bit high.  She is still having issues maintaining a consistent CDO.  She is getting better organized but she's en-training some dry air at some level or still mixing it out.  Once she completely closes off her eye wall then she could take off in a real hurry, but until then I say this is a 80 knot storm or less.

She doesn't have a considerable amount of time...
About 18 Hours, still got some work to do...
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
1241. weatherh98
4:00 PM GMT on June 15, 2012
Quoting Hurricane1216:
The ADT got 5.0 Final Dvorak numbers from this wonderful image:




95MPH!!!!
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6493
1240. ncstorm
4:00 PM GMT on June 15, 2012
96 Hours out
12Z GFS
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15288
1238. Hurricane1216
4:00 PM GMT on June 15, 2012
The ADT got 5.0 Final Dvorak numbers from this wonderful image:

Member Since: March 3, 2012 Posts: 15 Comments: 307
1237. Chicklit
3:57 PM GMT on June 15, 2012
1236. weatherh98
3:56 PM GMT on June 15, 2012
Quoting ScottLincoln:


Not enough information to make a good comment about it. If it was going to hit the gulf coast, I'd probably have more insight. We might have our own to deal with in a week or so, however...


Okay thats fine! yea GFS has been showing this one for like three weeks
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6493
1235. ncstorm
3:55 PM GMT on June 15, 2012
this is going to be an interesting run!

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15288
1234. ILwthrfan
3:55 PM GMT on June 15, 2012

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I'm out for a bit... I bet recon finds winds of about 100mph

That may be a bit high.  She is still having issues maintaining a consistent CDO.  She is getting better organized but she's en-training some dry air at some level or still mixing it out.  Once she completely closes off her eye wall then she could take off in a real hurry, but until then I say this is a 80 knot storm or less.
Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1520
1233. weatherh98
3:55 PM GMT on June 15, 2012
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Is it EWRC???
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6493
1232. ScottLincoln
3:54 PM GMT on June 15, 2012
Quoting weatherh98:


What do you think of carlotta


Not enough information to make a good comment about it. If it was going to hit the gulf coast, I'd probably have more insight. We might have our own to deal with in a week or so, however...
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3193
1231. GeoffreyWPB
3:54 PM GMT on June 15, 2012
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11153
1230. help4u
3:54 PM GMT on June 15, 2012
BLOG DIED!
Member Since: September 18, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1276
1229. Hurricanes305
3:53 PM GMT on June 15, 2012
Quoting weatherh98:
Pollllll timmeeeee

What is the highest windspeed recon will find?
in mph
A75-80
B81-85
c86-90
d91-95
e96-100
f greater than 100

what will the peak be?

a 80
b 85
c 90
d 95
e 100
f 105
g greater


Ill say lower D and e


1.E
2.G

Wow man that's really conservative even the NHC don't play this system that safe.
Member Since: May 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2043
1228. BobWallace
3:49 PM GMT on June 15, 2012
Quoting ScottLincoln:


It's also important to note that calling the ship a "wooden sailboat" might be slightly off. Although built for a different purpose, it was specifically retrofitted for the Northwest Passage attempt and was fitted with a motor and ice sheathing. The shallows they traveled in, when possible with ice-free conditions, are nowhere near the magnitude of the continuous ice free areas today.

Trying to compare anecdotes from those voyages to objective, clearer data of today is apples vs. oranges, demonstrating a misunderstanding of the Arctic history.


When the Northwest Passage has opened during the last few years you could drive a bass boat through in a few hours.

This is not your fath, er, Amundsen's Northwest Passage.
Member Since: February 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
1227. Hurricanes305
3:48 PM GMT on June 15, 2012
Quoting InconvenientStorm:
That eyewall has gotten rather ragged looking. The northern eyewall has opened and will allow convection to wane even more. I'd say a 95 mph storm...probably peaking now. Now will probably level off and if she isn't impacted completely by the land interaction.


No the rapid intensification process is just starting also remember based on the last advisory it may not even make landfall instead it recurves from land so it has time to restrengthen once again so this is a very serious storm and its a small compact system it does take much to wrap the tstorms in the SW part of the eye wall to wrap around its eye.
Member Since: May 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2043
1226. Patrap
3:47 PM GMT on June 15, 2012
Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 15th day of the month at 15:34Z
Date: June 15, 2012
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 305)
Storm Number: 03
Storm Name: Carlotta (flight in the Northeast Pacific basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 17


15:36:00Z 19.917N 96.600W 359.7 mb
(~ 10.62 inHg) 8,379 meters
(~ 27,490 feet) - 453 meters
(~ 1,486 feet) From 212° at 10 knots
(From the SSW at ~ 11.5 mph) -21.3°C
(~ -6.3°F) -24.7°C
(~ -12.5°F) 10 knots
(~ 11.5 mph) - - - -
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor
HDOB Observations
Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic
At 15:26:30Z (first observation), the observation was 111 miles (178 km) to the NNW (339°) from Veracruz, Veracruz, México.
At 15:36:00Z (last observation), the observation was 60 miles (96 km) to the NNW (329°) from Veracruz, Veracruz, México.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128277
1225. Methurricanes
3:47 PM GMT on June 15, 2012
Quoting Chicklit:
yay! Navy updated near 12.8n/95w



Translation: We don't know a thing.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 699
1224. 7544
3:46 PM GMT on June 15, 2012
we need a invest !!
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6812
1223. weatherh98
3:46 PM GMT on June 15, 2012
Pollllll timmeeeee

What is the highest windspeed recon will find?
in mph
A75-80
B81-85
c86-90
d91-95
e96-100
f greater than 100

what will the peak be?

a 80
b 85
c 90
d 95
e 100
f 105
g greater


Ill say lower D and e
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6493

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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