Wildfire smoke shrouds Denver; climate change expected to increase Western fires

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:16 PM GMT on June 13, 2012

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Colorado's third largest fire in recorded history, the High Park Fire, shrouded Denver and Fort Collins in acrid smoke Tuesday, causing an increase in emergency room visits related to smoke inhalation. The fire, currently burning fifteen miles west of Fort Collins, Colorado, covered over 43,000 acres (68 square miles) as of Tuesday. Firefighters reported that it was only 10% contained, and was exhibiting "extreme" behavior. A lightning strike triggered the fire on Saturday. While fire fighters try to control the southern edge of the fire, the northern perimeter is burning out of control. Six hundred eighty people and 100 fire engines are working on the ground to contain the blaze, along with air support from air tankers and helicopters. The fire has killed one person, burned 100 structures, and cost $1.6 million to fight so far. An air pollution action day has been declared for Wednesday all along the Front Range of the Rockies, from Denver to Fort Collins, due to smoke from the fire. Air pollution levels from smoke will be unhealthy for sensitive groups.


Figure 1. Fire burns in trees behind homes in the High Park wildfire near Fort Collins, Colorado, on Monday, June 11, 2012. (AP Photo)

Beetles, climate change, and Colorado fires
According to the Denver Post, the High Park Fire is burning in an area where 70% of the trees that have been killed by mountain pine beetles; the insects have devastated forests in western North America in recent years. As our climate change blogger, Dr. Ricky Rood explains, the pine beetle is killed (controlled) by temperatures less than -40°F. This is at the edge of the coldest temperatures normally seen in the U.S., and these cold extremes have largely disappeared since 1990. In Colorado, the lack of -40°F temperatures in winter has allowed the beetles to produce two broods of young per year, instead of one. The beetles are also attacking the pine trees up to a month earlier than the historic norm.


Figure 2. The historical mountain pine beetle (MPB) univoltine life cycle (above calendar arrows and linked by black arrows) and the observed MPB bivoltine life cycle (below calendar arrows and linked by red arrows). Univoltine means one brood per year, and bivoltine means two broods per year. Calendar arrow colors represent monthly temperature regimes: blue for less than 0°C, yellow for 0°-4.99°C, orange for 5°-9.99°C, and red for 10°C and higher. From Mitton and Ferrenberg, "Mountain Pine Beetle Develops an Unprecedented Summer Generation in Response to Climate Warming". This figure appeared in Dr. Ricky Rood's blog, "A Hot Day's Night: The Beetles".

A letter from the field in Colorado
Our climate change blogger, Dr. Ricky Rood, is in Boulder, Colorado this summer, and had this report on the fire Tuesday:

Saturday morning Iz and I were driving along 95th Street to Longmont to the Fairgrounds. We saw the initial plume; Iz said, "Looks like a volcano." At that time it was Colorado clear, with blue skies. The plume got to the top of its ascent and kicked off a little convection that looked like cauliflower. For the next few hours you could see the fire grow by the trunk of the plume getting thicker. It mostly blew to the east, with an occasional white cloud topping. It seemed to double in size every couple of hours.

By Sunday, the smoke was spreading all over the state. We had a couple of cool days with a northerly component in the wind. It filled up the sky, here, with haze - most of the day could not see Long's Peak. Part of the day couldn't see the foothills, say Flagstaff Mountain, which is about 8 miles away. Even with the wind moving around to the south, it's remained hazy. Today it has smelt of campfire-like smoke most of the day. Woke up sneezing. There is fine dust drawn to my computer screen and key board, which is at this point simply dirty. The dogs seem a little crazy.

It's not as acrid as the much closer Fourmile Fire a couple of years ago, but for some reason, it's the most dramatic fire I have experienced, perhaps because of the explosive nature of it. Tankers and helicopters fly over all day; they must stage from somewhere south of here. The tanks on them look hopelessly small compared with the fire, but they say, today, they finally made progress. The drought or drought potential is currently stunning, and we expect a lot of fire this year. Water only flowed in our irrigation ditch for four days before we lost priority.

There is a very nice figure in a local magazine, YS, that shows the percentage of snow pack compared with normal. We are South Platte - mid-May at 19 % normal, and not the worst in the state. Really, a nice little article in YS about how to predict a drought. Last year was nearly record wet. Right now this is setting up to be worse than the 2002 drought, which the article says was a 300 year drought. If true, then we had two 300 year droughts 10 years apart--some of our readers should be able to work on that as an attribution problem. The largest fire in Colorado history, the Hayman, was during the 2002 drought.


New Mexico's massive Whitewater Baldy Complex fire continues
The largest wildfire in New Mexico recorded history, the Whitewater Baldy Complex, continues to burn in the Gila National Forest. The lightning-sparked fire began nearly a month ago on May 15th, is 37% contained, and has devoured almost 280,000 acres (438 square miles.) Though fire weather advisories are not in effect in the region, the humidity is extremely low--humidity values of 6% were reported yesterday afternoon in Reserve, New Mexico, inside the burned area. Afternoon winds are expected to remain moderately strong, around 15 mph, over the next few days, as firefighters focus on keeping the southern edge of the fire from spreading. The fire has cost $22.6 million to fight so far.


Figure 3. The Whitewater Baldy Complex fire seen on our wundermap with the fire layer turned on. The red region outlined in yellow is the active fire perimeter.


Western U.S. wildfires expected to increase due to climate change
Expect a large increase in fires over much of the globe late this century due to climate change, says research published this month in the Journal Ecosphere. Using fire models driven by output from sixteen climate models used in the 2007 IPCC report, the researchers, led by Max Moritz of UC Berkeley, found that 38% of the planet should see increases in fire activity over the next 30 years. This figure increases to 62% by the end of the century. However, in many regions where precipitation is expected to increase--particularly in the tropics--there should be decreased fire activity. The scientists predicted that 8% of Earth will see decreases in fire probability over the next 30 years, and 20% will see decreases by the end of the century. The models do not agree on how fire danger will change for a large portion of the planet--54% for the period 2010 - 2039, and 18% for the period 2070 - 2099. Six key factors were found to control fire probabilities in the models. Most important was how much vegetation there was (NPP, Net Primary Productivity). Three other factors, about half as important, were precipitation of driest month, mean temperature of warmest month, and the difference between summer and winter temperature. Two other minor factors were mean temperature of wettest month, and annual precipitation. The authors found that future fire occurrence appears to primarily be a function of available moisture in many areas, and that the expected global increase in temperature of 3.5°C used in the models will not become the single dominant control on global wildfire. In the U.S., the regions most at risk of increased fires are the tundra regions of northern Alaska, and the West, with Arizona and Colorado at particularly high risk.


Figure 4. Predicted fractional change in fire probability for the period 2010 - 2039 (top) and 2070 - 2099 (bottom) for the average of sixteen climate models used for the 2007 IPCC report. For the 2010 - 2039 period, the models agree that 8% of Earth will see decreases in fire probability, 38% will see increases, and the models are too uncertain to tell for the other 54%. For the 2070 - 2099 period, the models agree that 20% of Earth will see decreases in fire probability, 62% will see increases, and the models are too uncertain to tell for the other 18%. Image credit: Climate change and disruptions to global fire activity, Moritz et al., 2012, from the journal Ecosphere.

Rare tornado hits Venice, Italy
A tornado hit Sant'Erasmo island in the lagoon surrounding Venice on Tuesday, ripping the roofs off of at least 12 buildings. No injuries were reported. The Capital Weather Gang has more videos and information on the event. Tornadoes are not unheard of in Venice; a strong one hit the city in 1970, killing 30 people.


Video 1. A waterspout/tornado in the Venice Lagoon on June 12, 2012.

The Atlantic is quiet
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic today. The NOGAPS and GFS models are predicting formation of a broad area of low pressure in the Western Caribbean early next week, and we will have to watch this area for development. The waters offshore of North Carolina may be another region to watch, over the next few days, along the edge of a cold front that has moved off the U.S. East Coast.

I'll have a new post Thursday or Friday.

Jeff Masters and Angela Fritz

Smokin' Hot Sun (BisonDoc)
Evening sky above the High Park Fire
Smokin' Hot Sun
Fire on the Mountain (BisonDoc)
This is the High Park Fire in Larimer County, Colorado on Day 2. The fire, first reported Saturday morning, June 9th, grew to 20,000 acres by late Sunday. More than 2,600 evacuation orders have been issued. View is looking west across Fort Collins toward the foothills above Horsetooth Reservoir.
Fire on the Mountain
Smokey Monday Sunset (MikePic)
The smoke has been nasty all along the front range, but made for a nice sunset.
Smokey Monday Sunset
High Park Wildfire (apphotos)
Fire burns through trees on the High Park wildfire near Fort Collins, Colo., on Monday, June 11, 2012. The wildfire is burning out of control in northern Colorado, while an unchecked blaze choked a small community in southern New Mexico as authorities in both regions battled fires Monday. (AP Photo/Ed Andrieski)
High Park Wildfire

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Quoting nofailsafe:


I suppose if anything did happen it could just Don out and then there'd be a lot of people all upset over something but nothing in particular.


But isn't that the norm a good part of the time?
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3115
He's the like JFV instead he lives in Texas.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16898
Quoting Stormchaser121:

Tx says COME ONE ;)


Have you ever been through a hurricane?
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3115
Quoting aislinnpaps:


Western Louisiana says no thank you.


I suppose if anything did happen it could just Don out and then there'd be a lot of people all upset over something but nothing in particular.
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Quoting RitaEvac:


If it doesn't come to TX it better go far away from here like the Florida panhandle, because if whatever forms goes to LA, we're gonna burn up and catch on fire here in TX.


While I don't want the drought we had here last year, which was the same one as Texas's, I'm tired of hurricanes and would like a full ten year break. It's only been three I believe. But both Texas and western Louisiana don't need another drought year.
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3115
Quoting aislinnpaps:


Western Louisiana says no thank you.

Tx says COME ONE ;)
Member Since: September 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1148
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Thats what popcorn is for, a troll in here is like throwing a wasp in a room of kids. Everyone freaks out and over reacts causing some to get stung while they should just ignore it. Alas most of the the time the over reaction is more fun to watch.


The mental image of that just puts a wicked grin on my face.
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Quoting Barefootontherocks:
A weather related cookie...?


mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm I love cookies, plus I hate the heat.
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Quoting Stormchaser121:

Thanks man
This time of year most storms go west toward Texas or La. But 2012 is not a normal Year!!!!
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Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:
Round one of thunderstorms around 6 pm today just missed us here (.05" of rain), yet another similar round of storms coming from the same direction has rolled in and we are getting a good soaking rain today after all. This rarely occurs on a "normal" summer day after thunderstorms have already hit and worked over the atmosphere in a given area. Wonder why this happened tonight.

As for the potential storm next week, if it originates in the BOC, it will most likely go north/northwest to Texas or western Louisiana.


Not if that strong trough is present like the GFS is showing, the storm will be whisked NE and make landfall somewhere between New Orleans and the FL panhandle.
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Quoting Stormchaser121:

Thanks man
Do you really want that storm to hit you?.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16898
Quoting aislinnpaps:


Western Louisiana says no thank you.


If it doesn't come to TX it better go far away from here like the Florida panhandle, because if whatever forms goes to LA, we're gonna burn up and catch on fire here in TX.
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I still don't think anything is gonna come out of the Caribbean.
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Quoting Barefootontherocks:
A weather related cookie...?
But it has besketballs on it.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16898
Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:
>As for the potential storm next week, if it originates in the BOC, it will most likely go north/northwest to Texas or western Louisiana.


Western Louisiana says no thank you.
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3115
JTWC increase to 55kts.

WTPN31 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 10.9N 135.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.9N 135.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 11.6N 133.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 12.5N 131.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 13.7N 129.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 15.0N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 18.0N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 21.5N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 25.2N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 11.1N 134.6E.
TROPICAL STORM 05W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM NORTH OF
PALAU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 140900Z, 141500Z, 142100Z AND 150300Z.//
NNNN

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Quoting stormpetrol:
I have to smile , I see some here who couldn't forecast a fart after a good plate of beans!!!


LOL
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Out for now.

Cody, I'll come back to check on your blog later, and leave you an insult... I mean comment.
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A weather related cookie...?
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Some Chrono Trigger action!


*gives two cookies*
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Thats what popcorn is for, a troll in here is like throwing a wasp in a room of kids. Everyone freaks out and over reacts causing some to get stung while they should just ignore it. Alas most of the the time the over reaction is more fun to watch.

*lol*
Good analogy. It entertained me...
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Round one of thunderstorms around 6 pm today just missed us here (.05" of rain), yet another similar round of storms coming from the same direction has rolled in and we are getting a good soaking rain today after all. This rarely occurs on a "normal" summer day after thunderstorms have already hit and worked over the atmosphere in a given area. Wonder why this happened tonight.

As for the potential storm next week, if it originates in the BOC, it will most likely go north/northwest to Texas or western Louisiana.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


"I must simply laugh."

Cookie or two to whomever gets that.


Some Chrono Trigger action!
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Quoting KoritheMan:


From the vantage point shown on the model, yes. It's not impossible for the northern Gulf Coast to take a hit in June (in fact, the Pensacola area has seen several), but odds favor a strike farther west from a storm originating in the Bay of Campeche.

Thanks man
Member Since: September 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1148
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Alas most of the the time the over reaction is more fun to watch.


"I must simply laugh."

Cookie or two to whomever gets that.
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Quoting allancalderini:
In this blog I have seen people fight over religion,Global warming and many other stuffs at first I thought it was hilarious of how people fight over such things but then they become annoying.thank God people in here don`t fight over other silly stuff.


Thats what popcorn is for, a troll in here is like throwing a wasp in a room of kids. Everyone freaks out and over reacts causing some to get stung while they should just ignore it. Alas most of the the time the over reaction is more fun to watch.
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Quoting Stormchaser121:

So the climatology does support the upper TX or SWLA track? I thought so...

How does that have to do with what kori was saying?
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting KoritheMan:


That tropical wave can "compete" all it wants to. But with TD3-E in the way, it isn't going to develop. That's what I was saying. If development comes out of the western Caribbean, it will not do so until our depression exits the stage.


That little area north of panama in the Caribbean seems to be under a bit of shear and is borrowing some upper divergence at the moment.The convergence there is minimal. The minimal convection is north of the 850mb vort.Not much to sustain anything at the moment. Curious as to where that anticyclone is headed though...


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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'll have my blog out after the first advisory for TD Three-E so it has the latest information.

Going to forecast a 60 knot peak and since the storm is a significant threat to Mexico, I'll have two blogs out a day until it dissipates: one in the morning and one at night

It's not dissipates in Mexico but will cross over into the BOC IMO!
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Quoting Stormchaser121:

So the climatology does support the upper TX or SWLA track? I thought so...


From the vantage point shown on the model, yes. It's not impossible for the northern Gulf Coast to take a hit in June (in fact, the Pensacola area has seen several), but odds favor a strike farther west from a storm originating in the Bay of Campeche.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


That tropical wave can "compete" all it wants to. But with TD3-E in the way, it isn't going to develop. That's what I was saying. If development comes out of the western Caribbean, it will not do so until our depression exits the stage.

So the climatology does support the upper TX or SWLA track? I thought so...
Member Since: September 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1148
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
People get worked up over the easiest things.
In this blog I have seen people fight over religion,Global warming and many other stuffs at first I thought it was hilarious of how people fight over such things but then they become annoying.thank God people in here don`t fight over other silly stuff.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


That tropical wave can "compete" all it wants to. But with TD3-E in the way, it isn't going to develop. That's what I was saying. If development comes out of the western Caribbean, it will not do so until our depression exits the stage.


Kori, don't be a downcaster... cmon a CAT 5 is gonna form!
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

I don't btw
ok I need
vodkia
gin
vermoth lol
anyway

main point here is that models are all over untill thing get going also notice someone said earler that there is nothing in the W Carib to compete well after reviewing the is a 1009mb low pressure area and a tropical wave in the area


That tropical wave can "compete" all it wants to. But with TD3-E in the way, it isn't going to develop. That's what I was saying. If development comes out of the western Caribbean, it will not do so until our depression exits the stage.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


If you would think logically for just one moment, you would realize he wasn't insulting the Cayman Islands, or you. He was referring to the fact that you seem to have developed a tropical cyclone bias by virtue of living in the Cayman Islands. He was not insulting your heritage, or you as a person.

Calm down, clear your head, and have a beer or two.

I don't btw
ok I need
vodkia
gin
vermoth lol
anyway

main point here is that models are all over untill thing get going also notice someone said earler that there is nothing in the W Carib to compete well after reviewing the is a 1009mb low pressure area and a tropical wave in the area
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11843
My house is shaking from the storm, literally. Very nice storm we're getting in Louisiana.
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Quoting stormpetrol:
I have to smile , I see some here who couldn't forecast a fart after a good plate of beans!!!


Okay, I admit. I laughed. :)
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Quoting tropicfreak:


It's constructive criticism. More realism, less wishcasting.


Look at what I just said: climatology favors the potential Caribbean disturbance from the vantage point of the Bay of Campeche heading toward the locations pointed out by Stormchaser. I live in southeast Louisiana, and while I would love to see a tropical storm or two, I didn't let that cloud my judgment and get in the way of making an accurate statement.

You don't wishcast. You forecast. That's the name of the game, and frankly, if you exercise the former (to an insane degree), you're in no position to be making any sort of claim, period.
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I have to smile , I see some here who couldn't forecast a fart after a good plate of beans!!!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
People get worked up over the easiest things.


Ahem.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


If you would think logically for just one moment, you would realize he wasn't insulting the Cayman Islands, or you. He was referring to the fact that you seem to have developed a tropical cyclone bias by virtue of living in the Cayman Islands. He was not insulting your heritage, or you as a person.

Calm down, clear your head, and have a beer or two.


It's constructive criticism. More realism, less wishcasting. Right on, Korithe, that's exactly what I was trying to say. I would not make any such comment that hurts someone's feelings.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6876
Quoting KoritheMan:


So would climatology, actually. A straight northeast track toward the northern Gulf Coast generally doesn't happen from that vantage point until later in the year.

The models are all over the place, i have no clue where this one will go. I have seen this forecast many times though, but idk what to believe.
Member Since: September 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1148
People get worked up over the easiest things.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31917
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

HELL NO


If you would think logically for just one moment, you would realize he wasn't insulting the Cayman Islands, or you. He was referring to the fact that you seem to have developed a tropical cyclone bias by virtue of living in the Cayman Islands. He was not insulting your heritage, or you as a person.

Calm down, clear your head, and have a beer or two.
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Quoting Stormchaser121:

The forecast upper-level pattern would support a track towards the upper Texas coast or southwestern Louisiana.


So would climatology, actually. A straight northeast track toward the northern Gulf Coast generally doesn't happen from that vantage point until later in the year.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

what the HELL you just said about me and this island

HELL NO
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11843

The forecast upper-level pattern would support a track towards the upper Texas coast or southwestern Louisiana.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

what the @$%& you just said about me and this island


Let it go. Just... let it go.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

what the @$%& you just said about me and this island


How's Gilligan?
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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