Wildfire smoke shrouds Denver; climate change expected to increase Western fires

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:16 PM GMT on June 13, 2012

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Colorado's third largest fire in recorded history, the High Park Fire, shrouded Denver and Fort Collins in acrid smoke Tuesday, causing an increase in emergency room visits related to smoke inhalation. The fire, currently burning fifteen miles west of Fort Collins, Colorado, covered over 43,000 acres (68 square miles) as of Tuesday. Firefighters reported that it was only 10% contained, and was exhibiting "extreme" behavior. A lightning strike triggered the fire on Saturday. While fire fighters try to control the southern edge of the fire, the northern perimeter is burning out of control. Six hundred eighty people and 100 fire engines are working on the ground to contain the blaze, along with air support from air tankers and helicopters. The fire has killed one person, burned 100 structures, and cost $1.6 million to fight so far. An air pollution action day has been declared for Wednesday all along the Front Range of the Rockies, from Denver to Fort Collins, due to smoke from the fire. Air pollution levels from smoke will be unhealthy for sensitive groups.


Figure 1. Fire burns in trees behind homes in the High Park wildfire near Fort Collins, Colorado, on Monday, June 11, 2012. (AP Photo)

Beetles, climate change, and Colorado fires
According to the Denver Post, the High Park Fire is burning in an area where 70% of the trees that have been killed by mountain pine beetles; the insects have devastated forests in western North America in recent years. As our climate change blogger, Dr. Ricky Rood explains, the pine beetle is killed (controlled) by temperatures less than -40°F. This is at the edge of the coldest temperatures normally seen in the U.S., and these cold extremes have largely disappeared since 1990. In Colorado, the lack of -40°F temperatures in winter has allowed the beetles to produce two broods of young per year, instead of one. The beetles are also attacking the pine trees up to a month earlier than the historic norm.


Figure 2. The historical mountain pine beetle (MPB) univoltine life cycle (above calendar arrows and linked by black arrows) and the observed MPB bivoltine life cycle (below calendar arrows and linked by red arrows). Univoltine means one brood per year, and bivoltine means two broods per year. Calendar arrow colors represent monthly temperature regimes: blue for less than 0°C, yellow for 0°-4.99°C, orange for 5°-9.99°C, and red for 10°C and higher. From Mitton and Ferrenberg, "Mountain Pine Beetle Develops an Unprecedented Summer Generation in Response to Climate Warming". This figure appeared in Dr. Ricky Rood's blog, "A Hot Day's Night: The Beetles".

A letter from the field in Colorado
Our climate change blogger, Dr. Ricky Rood, is in Boulder, Colorado this summer, and had this report on the fire Tuesday:

Saturday morning Iz and I were driving along 95th Street to Longmont to the Fairgrounds. We saw the initial plume; Iz said, "Looks like a volcano." At that time it was Colorado clear, with blue skies. The plume got to the top of its ascent and kicked off a little convection that looked like cauliflower. For the next few hours you could see the fire grow by the trunk of the plume getting thicker. It mostly blew to the east, with an occasional white cloud topping. It seemed to double in size every couple of hours.

By Sunday, the smoke was spreading all over the state. We had a couple of cool days with a northerly component in the wind. It filled up the sky, here, with haze - most of the day could not see Long's Peak. Part of the day couldn't see the foothills, say Flagstaff Mountain, which is about 8 miles away. Even with the wind moving around to the south, it's remained hazy. Today it has smelt of campfire-like smoke most of the day. Woke up sneezing. There is fine dust drawn to my computer screen and key board, which is at this point simply dirty. The dogs seem a little crazy.

It's not as acrid as the much closer Fourmile Fire a couple of years ago, but for some reason, it's the most dramatic fire I have experienced, perhaps because of the explosive nature of it. Tankers and helicopters fly over all day; they must stage from somewhere south of here. The tanks on them look hopelessly small compared with the fire, but they say, today, they finally made progress. The drought or drought potential is currently stunning, and we expect a lot of fire this year. Water only flowed in our irrigation ditch for four days before we lost priority.

There is a very nice figure in a local magazine, YS, that shows the percentage of snow pack compared with normal. We are South Platte - mid-May at 19 % normal, and not the worst in the state. Really, a nice little article in YS about how to predict a drought. Last year was nearly record wet. Right now this is setting up to be worse than the 2002 drought, which the article says was a 300 year drought. If true, then we had two 300 year droughts 10 years apart--some of our readers should be able to work on that as an attribution problem. The largest fire in Colorado history, the Hayman, was during the 2002 drought.


New Mexico's massive Whitewater Baldy Complex fire continues
The largest wildfire in New Mexico recorded history, the Whitewater Baldy Complex, continues to burn in the Gila National Forest. The lightning-sparked fire began nearly a month ago on May 15th, is 37% contained, and has devoured almost 280,000 acres (438 square miles.) Though fire weather advisories are not in effect in the region, the humidity is extremely low--humidity values of 6% were reported yesterday afternoon in Reserve, New Mexico, inside the burned area. Afternoon winds are expected to remain moderately strong, around 15 mph, over the next few days, as firefighters focus on keeping the southern edge of the fire from spreading. The fire has cost $22.6 million to fight so far.


Figure 3. The Whitewater Baldy Complex fire seen on our wundermap with the fire layer turned on. The red region outlined in yellow is the active fire perimeter.


Western U.S. wildfires expected to increase due to climate change
Expect a large increase in fires over much of the globe late this century due to climate change, says research published this month in the Journal Ecosphere. Using fire models driven by output from sixteen climate models used in the 2007 IPCC report, the researchers, led by Max Moritz of UC Berkeley, found that 38% of the planet should see increases in fire activity over the next 30 years. This figure increases to 62% by the end of the century. However, in many regions where precipitation is expected to increase--particularly in the tropics--there should be decreased fire activity. The scientists predicted that 8% of Earth will see decreases in fire probability over the next 30 years, and 20% will see decreases by the end of the century. The models do not agree on how fire danger will change for a large portion of the planet--54% for the period 2010 - 2039, and 18% for the period 2070 - 2099. Six key factors were found to control fire probabilities in the models. Most important was how much vegetation there was (NPP, Net Primary Productivity). Three other factors, about half as important, were precipitation of driest month, mean temperature of warmest month, and the difference between summer and winter temperature. Two other minor factors were mean temperature of wettest month, and annual precipitation. The authors found that future fire occurrence appears to primarily be a function of available moisture in many areas, and that the expected global increase in temperature of 3.5°C used in the models will not become the single dominant control on global wildfire. In the U.S., the regions most at risk of increased fires are the tundra regions of northern Alaska, and the West, with Arizona and Colorado at particularly high risk.


Figure 4. Predicted fractional change in fire probability for the period 2010 - 2039 (top) and 2070 - 2099 (bottom) for the average of sixteen climate models used for the 2007 IPCC report. For the 2010 - 2039 period, the models agree that 8% of Earth will see decreases in fire probability, 38% will see increases, and the models are too uncertain to tell for the other 54%. For the 2070 - 2099 period, the models agree that 20% of Earth will see decreases in fire probability, 62% will see increases, and the models are too uncertain to tell for the other 18%. Image credit: Climate change and disruptions to global fire activity, Moritz et al., 2012, from the journal Ecosphere.

Rare tornado hits Venice, Italy
A tornado hit Sant'Erasmo island in the lagoon surrounding Venice on Tuesday, ripping the roofs off of at least 12 buildings. No injuries were reported. The Capital Weather Gang has more videos and information on the event. Tornadoes are not unheard of in Venice; a strong one hit the city in 1970, killing 30 people.


Video 1. A waterspout/tornado in the Venice Lagoon on June 12, 2012.

The Atlantic is quiet
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic today. The NOGAPS and GFS models are predicting formation of a broad area of low pressure in the Western Caribbean early next week, and we will have to watch this area for development. The waters offshore of North Carolina may be another region to watch, over the next few days, along the edge of a cold front that has moved off the U.S. East Coast.

I'll have a new post Thursday or Friday.

Jeff Masters and Angela Fritz

Smokin' Hot Sun (BisonDoc)
Evening sky above the High Park Fire
Smokin' Hot Sun
Fire on the Mountain (BisonDoc)
This is the High Park Fire in Larimer County, Colorado on Day 2. The fire, first reported Saturday morning, June 9th, grew to 20,000 acres by late Sunday. More than 2,600 evacuation orders have been issued. View is looking west across Fort Collins toward the foothills above Horsetooth Reservoir.
Fire on the Mountain
Smokey Monday Sunset (MikePic)
The smoke has been nasty all along the front range, but made for a nice sunset.
Smokey Monday Sunset
High Park Wildfire (apphotos)
Fire burns through trees on the High Park wildfire near Fort Collins, Colo., on Monday, June 11, 2012. The wildfire is burning out of control in northern Colorado, while an unchecked blaze choked a small community in southern New Mexico as authorities in both regions battled fires Monday. (AP Photo/Ed Andrieski)
High Park Wildfire

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No luck here SW of Houston.
Quoting etxwx:
Good morning all, including the Friends of Carlotta. (it's going to be hard to resist Dead Men Don't Wear Plaid movie references with that name...)
We picked up 3 inches of rain last night - one of those cells in East Texas must have parked over us. Lots of thunder & lightening, but no serious wind or hail. The ponds are up, hay is green & growing and it is a good morning.
Any luck with the rain last night for the Houston area folks who have been needing it?

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C
B
C
B
A
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32042
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Cant most much. Still tired.

Learn to drink Coffee.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Nope. Seems I've heard of it but never actually seen it happen. :)


Rain near ya

Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
Quoting RitaEvac:


Usually someone is supposed to quote what I said and burn me at the stake, with details that the 2012 season has 8 more storms to go, and ramble on with stupidity.


Ah, sorry little slow this morning. I'll be rambling on stupidly here soon enough I'm sure. Lol.
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Poll Time

How strong will Carlotta get before landfall?
(A) She's peaking right now(45 Mph TS)
(B) Strong Tropical Storm
(C) Category 1- 90 Mph IMO
(D) Category 2
(E) Major Hurricane

What will Carlotta's track look like?
(A) A straight track Northwest into Mexico(As forecasted by NHC)
(B) A track northwest with a gradual bend toward the North into Mexico
(C) A track north with a bend toward the northeast
(D) A track toward the North-Northwest with a swing to the Northeast and into Guatemala.

When Will we see Chris?
(A) In the next 48 hours
(B) In the next 120 hours
(C) In the next 240 hours
-In Between
(D) We won't see Chris in the next 10 days

Should I change my profile picture?
(A) Yeah! It's the Ugliest profile picture ever!
(B) Eh, I don't care
(C) No! It's Awesome!

Will we see Debby in the next 10 days?
(A) Yes
(B) No
(C) Possibly
(D) Before June Ends, but not in the next 10 days
(E) We will see Debby and Ernesto before June ends
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Carlotta is not wasting her time she is strengthening a cat 2 landfall is not out of the question.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4320
Quoting ncstorm:


Interesting..dont see that every tropical season



Nope. Seems I've heard of it but never actually seen it happen. :)
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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32042
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Don't act like I didn't see you Cody and cybrted, Cmon out of hiding :P
You can't let me comment back to back, over and over. I get lonely... :)

Cant most much. Still tired.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32042
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
HPC

CURRENT MJO ENTERING PHASES 8 AND 1 CONTINUES SHOWING FAVORABLE
VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALIES AT H200 AND H850 OVER THE EASTERN
TROPICAL PACIFIC/ CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE WRN CARRIBEAN/GLFMEX.
BROAD SCALE ANOMALOUS H850 WESTERLY FLOW IN THE TROPICAL EPAC
SUPPORTS DOWNSTREAM BROAD SCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER TEH
WESTERN CARRIBEAN AND GULFMEX AIDING IN POTENTIAL TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT. MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING VARIOUS FORMS OF
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN BOTH THE EPAC AND WRN CARIB/LOWER GLFMEX
BASINS AND EXPECT THAT SOME FORM OF TROPICAL DVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR
OR BEGIN TO OCCUR LATE PERIOD OR THE FOLLOWING WEEK.


Interesting.
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FUJIWARA-UKMet
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15288
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Take care Rita. ;)


Usually someone is supposed to quote what I said and burn me at the stake, with details that the 2012 season has 8 more storms to go, and ramble on with stupidity.
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
Don't act like I didn't see you Cody and cybrted, Cmon out of hiding :P
You can't let me comment back to back, over and over. I get lonely... :)
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:
CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...
THE BOUNDARY OFF NE FL LIKE THE RUNS FROM YESTERDAY. THERE IS
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE MID LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SOUTHERN END OF THIS BOUNDARY AND THE ANCHOR LOW WILL FUJIWARA
BY FRI/SAT




Interesting..dont see that every tropical season

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15288
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
As of now most models aren't liking the formation of a system in the caribbean, which makes my second scenario less and less likely.
The models like the Gfs and Euro are full onboard with the reformation from Carollota to Chris.

The Euro's 0z run Interests me though. It seems that the model run ends with the 1007 mb remnant low sitting stationary over the BOC, but when I look north there's a high pressure system sitting over the Southwest-West Texas, which is preventing it from moving West and North. Then I looked up into the great plains and saw what would be taking this system home... A trough coming over the Plains, and if timing were to be perfect the remnant would form into Chris and head up north as the trough passed and came somewhere between LA and FL.
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As of now most models aren't liking the formation of a system in the caribbean, which makes my second scenario less and less likely.
The models like the Gfs and Euro are full onboard with the reformation from Carollota to Chris.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Looks like nuttin in the tropics, see ya in 2013


Take care Rita. ;)
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867. etxwx
Good morning all, including the Friends of Carlotta. (it's going to be hard to resist Dead Men Don't Wear Plaid movie references with that name...)
We picked up 3 inches of rain last night - one of those cells in East Texas must have parked over us. Lots of thunder & lightening, but no serious wind or hail. The ponds are up, hay is green & growing and it is a good morning.
Any luck with the rain last night for the Houston area folks who have been needing it?
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The HWRF has an amazing new resolution.

Should be great to test it out later in the season.


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Looks like nuttin in the tropics, see ya in 2013
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Well let's hope the HWRF doesn't continue to come true. It peaks Carlotta as a strong Category 2 hurricane.


If that rings true, the more RI it goes through, the more likely it will be to lift more northerly, and feel the pull of the trough as it pulls through right after landfall on Mexico.
In this equation:
Carlotta RI=Stronger Remnants.
Stronger Remnant=Better formation chances with the caribbean/BOC system, if necessary.
Read comment 862 for more
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The 0z and 6z Gfs runs are way off the mark IMO. I I agree with the intensity and such, but that's not important right now, until we can get a solid consensus of the track. Currently the GFS has the western-most solution which is not feasible IMO. The High won't build in the quickly to block it from heading Northward, and if the storm were to jump-start we could see any of these scenarios:
1. Early formation= jet off to the Northeast and into the bahamas as a Tropical depression/Weak TS
2. On Time formation= Trip over the yucatan and become a modest Tropical storm or minimal Hurricane before a landfall along the Gulf coast
3. Late formation= formation of a storm in the Bay of Campeche from the remnants of Carollota and then get blocked by building High and would result in a northward motion briefly then a strong shove in to the Veracruz, MX area.

1. & 3. could happen separately. resulting in the formation of chris into Cuba, and Debby in the BOC.
2. would be the best chance to get a very potent system into the Gulf, which I think will go down afterall the model confusion is cleared.

1&3 = 2 Small tropical storms
2= 1 Potent Tropical storm or Minimal Hurricane(Category 1-2)
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Looks like the HWRF isn't as crazy as we think, after all it received a major upgrade and outperformed the GFDL IIRC for Beryl.

Well let's hope the HWRF doesn't continue to come true. It peaks Carlotta as a strong Category 2 hurricane.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32042
HPC

CURRENT MJO ENTERING PHASES 8 AND 1 CONTINUES SHOWING FAVORABLE
VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALIES AT H200 AND H850 OVER THE EASTERN
TROPICAL PACIFIC/ CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE WRN CARRIBEAN/GLFMEX.
BROAD SCALE ANOMALOUS H850 WESTERLY FLOW IN THE TROPICAL EPAC
SUPPORTS DOWNSTREAM BROAD SCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER TEH
WESTERN CARRIBEAN AND GULFMEX AIDING IN POTENTIAL TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT. MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING VARIOUS FORMS OF
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN BOTH THE EPAC AND WRN CARIB/LOWER GLFMEX
BASINS AND EXPECT THAT SOME FORM OF TROPICAL DVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR
OR BEGIN TO OCCUR LATE PERIOD OR THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
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Quoting tornadodude:


Basically, this is all just ideas. Im going to school for business management. And I am mulling over ideas. I think it is very feasible to offer a cheaper chase tour service.

Anyway, any other questions, feel free to PM me, I will gladly answer.
As someone else mentioned, beware of making it too affordable. Not just for demand, but also for unforseen cost - like lawsuits. Get a good lawyer to write you a bullet proof waiver (there is no such thing, but at least make it forbidding).

As someone who has at least two high risk hobbies, I can tell you there is a big difference between doing it for yourself and taking money from someone to take them along.
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First visible of the day.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32042
Good morning.
It has not rained on my house, for about 12 hours.
This is a really long Dry Spell.....

taken in context, of course/
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Carlotta may be a hurricane by tonight.



Looks like the HWRF isn't as crazy as we think, after all it received a major upgrade and outperformed the GFDL IIRC for Beryl.
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Good morning everyone...
Slow morning ain't it? Everyone else should be getting on within the next advisory on Carlotta.
Anyway, gonna take a peep at the models and see what they're up to. BBL
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twins.possible?epac.and.west.carib.
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Good morning, all. The site is working fine from here, though when I went back to see what's been happening the page before this is messed up from a graphic.
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Quoting aspectre:
401 tornadodude: Would you consider $1,200 for a 10 day storm chase tour across the Great Plains a good deal? This includes all gas, hotels, and some snacks. Also included is a copy of the DVD from the chase trip.

Me? No. BUT there are a LOT of adventure tourism folks out there who would. And they would consider your tour price to be dirt cheap.
Sounds like great way to fund your storm-chasing... and make more than a few bucks profit if you can set it up right. eg Raise your prices once you've had enough customers go through the experience that their recommendations would generate more tourists-than-you-can-handle heading your way.

Definitely set up a website advertizing your tour. And definitely target the German tourist market.
Many like heading toward the extreme purely for the sake of experiencing the extreme. Go out to DeathValley during its hottest days, and ya can't get away from 'em.
I think the Japanese would be somewhat the same: just less into the gung ho, and more into the awe. ie Less into DeathValley and more into MonumentValley.
.insure.that.business?
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Quoting icmoore:
Good morning :) Did anyone else get the "High load, site overloaded, try again later?" What's that about, a hurricane lurking that I don't know about yet?


I didn't get the message whole site froze on me.
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Carlotta may be a hurricane by tonight.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32042
CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...
THE 0230 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS FRESH TO STRONG TRADES CONFINED
TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84W AS
WELL AS THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 12N84W TO 11N75W AND RIDGING NE
OF THE AREA. THE GFS WAS THE ONLY MODEL TO PROPERLY INITIALIZE
THE 25 KT WINDS SEEN BY THE ASCAT. ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE
TOWARD ITS STRONGER WINDS HERE COMPARED TO CONTINUITY. THE
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS
BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE YUCATAN FRI. THE MONSOON TROUGH
EXTENDING INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM THE E PACIFIC WILL LIFT TO
THE N THROUGH MON AS A BROAD MID LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPS
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA/WESTERN CARIBBEAN. CONFIDENCE IS EXTREMELY
LOW IN THE DETAILS HERE...BUT THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE
MIGRATION OF THIS MID LEVEL GYRE NORTHWARD FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN
SUN TOWARD BELIZE BY TUE. THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE
NUDGED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF HERE FOR NOW.
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TROPICAL N ATLC LATE
THU INTO FRI...MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN FRI NIGHT AND LIKELY
DISSIPATE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE MONSOON GYRE.

SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST TODAY. THE ANCHOR
LOW PRES SYSTEM LIES NEAR 38N72W AND EXTENDS A COLD FRONT
THROUGH N FL. THE MODELS NO LONGER CARRY A SURFACE WAVE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY OFF NE FL LIKE THE RUNS FROM YESTERDAY. THERE IS
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE MID LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SOUTHERN END OF THIS BOUNDARY AND THE ANCHOR LOW WILL FUJIWARA
BY FRI/SAT. THE DETAILS ON THE STRENGTH OF THESE TWO VORT MAXES
AND THEIR TRACKS IS UP IN THE AIR. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN
THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND THE GLOBAL MODELS ON A LOW NEAR
30N65W AT 16/00Z. THEN...THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON WEAKENING
THE SYSTEM...BUT DIVERGE MORE BY SUN WITH THE ECMWF CARRYING A
WEAKER AND MORE EASTERLY SOLUTION THAN THE GFS...WITH THE UKMET
AND NOGAPS GENERALLY SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. THE GFS/ECMWF BLEND
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE BEST BET FOR NOW.


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Good morning :) Did anyone else get the "High load, site overloaded, try again later?" What's that about, a hurricane lurking that I don't know about yet?
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Good morning WU....Carlotta :)
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Good morning.
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Quoting redwagon:

Wish there was some way to get an ASCAT of the Mobile Low. The spin has been consistent, even if invisible when convection isn't firing. Do you think it will be
able to transition to warm-core once it's fully over water?


This morning's discussion about the low and the 6z GFS on it



GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE NE GULF TODAY
THOUGH FRI...DISSIPATING BY SAT. THE 00Z GFS WANTS TO DEVELOP A
SURFACE LOW ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NE GULF BY FRI MORNING
AND FORCES 20 KT WINDS ON ITS N SIDE WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT
WILL BE STRONGEST BETWEEN THE LOW AND BUILDING HIGH PRES OVER
GEORGIA. IT DIMINISHES THE LOW BY EARLY SAT MORNING. THE 00Z
UKMET ALSO DEVELOPS A LOW...BUT WAITS UNTIL AFTERNOON TO
INCREASE WINDS WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF DEVELOPS THE LOW FRI AND
DIMINISHES IT TO A TROUGH BY FRI EVENING AND WAITS UNTIL EARLY
SAT MORNING TO FORCE 20 KT WINDS IN THE NE GULF. THE UKMET
APPEARS TO BE A COMPROMISE SOLUTION WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF 20
KT WINDS...BUT IT CARRIES THE SYSTEM W MORE QUICKLY THAN THE
GFS/ECMWF AND INCREASES WINDS TO 25 KT N OF THE REMAINING TROUGH
BY SAT AFTERNOON UNLIKE THE GFS/ECMWF. THE COMPROMISE GFS/ECMWF
IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH CONTINUITY THAN THE STRONGER UKMET...BUT
WILL CALL FOR THE ONSET OF 20 KT WINDS TO BE SLIGHTLY EARLIER
THAN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. LARGER MODEL DIFFERENCES
COME INTO PLAY EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN PACIFIC TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THREE-E AND ENERGY FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN POTENTIALLY
INTERACT OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS
TROUGHING AND RIDGING OVER THE NE GULF BRINGS FRESH SE FLOW TO
THE CENTRAL GULF OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT ACCORDING TO THE GFS AND
ECMWF WHILE THE UKMET TIGHTENS THE GRADIENT EARLIER. WILL
CONTINUE TO HEDGE TOWARD A GFS/ECMWF BLEND HERE WHICH KEEPS
REASONABLE CONTINUITY.
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032012
500 AM PDT THU JUN 14 2012

...CARLOTTA STRENGTHENING...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY
FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.6N 93.4W
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARRA DE TONALA TO PUNTA MALDONADO

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE
WATCH AREA LATER THIS MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.4 WEST. CARLOTTA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...70 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND CARLOTTA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY
THE TIME THE CENTER NEARS THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. A
SHIP NEAR THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF
1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY
MORNING.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Both the CMC and GFS are calling for two storms happening at the same time..one on the east coast and one on in the GOM..

The east coast is the tropical wave currently near the Dominion Republic while the GOM will be the EPAC storm that crosses Mexico..I dont know if we ever had two different storms impacting the US before?





The Nogaps is faster with the EPAC storm and has it hitting NO..



Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15288
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
6z GFS 264 hours... The pressure says 990mb but it looks a good deal stronger



But shouldn't it be pulled to the NE if its that strong and there is a weakness in the ridge?
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If the Pacific NamedStorm Carlotta crosses Mexico to become an Atlantic NamedStorm Carlotta, do we still get a Chris? Or will a Debby be next?
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
6z GFS 264 hours... The pressure says 990mb but it looks a good deal stronger



If the gfs is showing that many isobars then we are gonna have a monster to deal with.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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