Wildfire smoke shrouds Denver; climate change expected to increase Western fires

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:16 PM GMT on June 13, 2012

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Colorado's third largest fire in recorded history, the High Park Fire, shrouded Denver and Fort Collins in acrid smoke Tuesday, causing an increase in emergency room visits related to smoke inhalation. The fire, currently burning fifteen miles west of Fort Collins, Colorado, covered over 43,000 acres (68 square miles) as of Tuesday. Firefighters reported that it was only 10% contained, and was exhibiting "extreme" behavior. A lightning strike triggered the fire on Saturday. While fire fighters try to control the southern edge of the fire, the northern perimeter is burning out of control. Six hundred eighty people and 100 fire engines are working on the ground to contain the blaze, along with air support from air tankers and helicopters. The fire has killed one person, burned 100 structures, and cost $1.6 million to fight so far. An air pollution action day has been declared for Wednesday all along the Front Range of the Rockies, from Denver to Fort Collins, due to smoke from the fire. Air pollution levels from smoke will be unhealthy for sensitive groups.


Figure 1. Fire burns in trees behind homes in the High Park wildfire near Fort Collins, Colorado, on Monday, June 11, 2012. (AP Photo)

Beetles, climate change, and Colorado fires
According to the Denver Post, the High Park Fire is burning in an area where 70% of the trees that have been killed by mountain pine beetles; the insects have devastated forests in western North America in recent years. As our climate change blogger, Dr. Ricky Rood explains, the pine beetle is killed (controlled) by temperatures less than -40°F. This is at the edge of the coldest temperatures normally seen in the U.S., and these cold extremes have largely disappeared since 1990. In Colorado, the lack of -40°F temperatures in winter has allowed the beetles to produce two broods of young per year, instead of one. The beetles are also attacking the pine trees up to a month earlier than the historic norm.


Figure 2. The historical mountain pine beetle (MPB) univoltine life cycle (above calendar arrows and linked by black arrows) and the observed MPB bivoltine life cycle (below calendar arrows and linked by red arrows). Univoltine means one brood per year, and bivoltine means two broods per year. Calendar arrow colors represent monthly temperature regimes: blue for less than 0°C, yellow for 0°-4.99°C, orange for 5°-9.99°C, and red for 10°C and higher. From Mitton and Ferrenberg, "Mountain Pine Beetle Develops an Unprecedented Summer Generation in Response to Climate Warming". This figure appeared in Dr. Ricky Rood's blog, "A Hot Day's Night: The Beetles".

A letter from the field in Colorado
Our climate change blogger, Dr. Ricky Rood, is in Boulder, Colorado this summer, and had this report on the fire Tuesday:

Saturday morning Iz and I were driving along 95th Street to Longmont to the Fairgrounds. We saw the initial plume; Iz said, "Looks like a volcano." At that time it was Colorado clear, with blue skies. The plume got to the top of its ascent and kicked off a little convection that looked like cauliflower. For the next few hours you could see the fire grow by the trunk of the plume getting thicker. It mostly blew to the east, with an occasional white cloud topping. It seemed to double in size every couple of hours.

By Sunday, the smoke was spreading all over the state. We had a couple of cool days with a northerly component in the wind. It filled up the sky, here, with haze - most of the day could not see Long's Peak. Part of the day couldn't see the foothills, say Flagstaff Mountain, which is about 8 miles away. Even with the wind moving around to the south, it's remained hazy. Today it has smelt of campfire-like smoke most of the day. Woke up sneezing. There is fine dust drawn to my computer screen and key board, which is at this point simply dirty. The dogs seem a little crazy.

It's not as acrid as the much closer Fourmile Fire a couple of years ago, but for some reason, it's the most dramatic fire I have experienced, perhaps because of the explosive nature of it. Tankers and helicopters fly over all day; they must stage from somewhere south of here. The tanks on them look hopelessly small compared with the fire, but they say, today, they finally made progress. The drought or drought potential is currently stunning, and we expect a lot of fire this year. Water only flowed in our irrigation ditch for four days before we lost priority.

There is a very nice figure in a local magazine, YS, that shows the percentage of snow pack compared with normal. We are South Platte - mid-May at 19 % normal, and not the worst in the state. Really, a nice little article in YS about how to predict a drought. Last year was nearly record wet. Right now this is setting up to be worse than the 2002 drought, which the article says was a 300 year drought. If true, then we had two 300 year droughts 10 years apart--some of our readers should be able to work on that as an attribution problem. The largest fire in Colorado history, the Hayman, was during the 2002 drought.


New Mexico's massive Whitewater Baldy Complex fire continues
The largest wildfire in New Mexico recorded history, the Whitewater Baldy Complex, continues to burn in the Gila National Forest. The lightning-sparked fire began nearly a month ago on May 15th, is 37% contained, and has devoured almost 280,000 acres (438 square miles.) Though fire weather advisories are not in effect in the region, the humidity is extremely low--humidity values of 6% were reported yesterday afternoon in Reserve, New Mexico, inside the burned area. Afternoon winds are expected to remain moderately strong, around 15 mph, over the next few days, as firefighters focus on keeping the southern edge of the fire from spreading. The fire has cost $22.6 million to fight so far.


Figure 3. The Whitewater Baldy Complex fire seen on our wundermap with the fire layer turned on. The red region outlined in yellow is the active fire perimeter.


Western U.S. wildfires expected to increase due to climate change
Expect a large increase in fires over much of the globe late this century due to climate change, says research published this month in the Journal Ecosphere. Using fire models driven by output from sixteen climate models used in the 2007 IPCC report, the researchers, led by Max Moritz of UC Berkeley, found that 38% of the planet should see increases in fire activity over the next 30 years. This figure increases to 62% by the end of the century. However, in many regions where precipitation is expected to increase--particularly in the tropics--there should be decreased fire activity. The scientists predicted that 8% of Earth will see decreases in fire probability over the next 30 years, and 20% will see decreases by the end of the century. The models do not agree on how fire danger will change for a large portion of the planet--54% for the period 2010 - 2039, and 18% for the period 2070 - 2099. Six key factors were found to control fire probabilities in the models. Most important was how much vegetation there was (NPP, Net Primary Productivity). Three other factors, about half as important, were precipitation of driest month, mean temperature of warmest month, and the difference between summer and winter temperature. Two other minor factors were mean temperature of wettest month, and annual precipitation. The authors found that future fire occurrence appears to primarily be a function of available moisture in many areas, and that the expected global increase in temperature of 3.5°C used in the models will not become the single dominant control on global wildfire. In the U.S., the regions most at risk of increased fires are the tundra regions of northern Alaska, and the West, with Arizona and Colorado at particularly high risk.


Figure 4. Predicted fractional change in fire probability for the period 2010 - 2039 (top) and 2070 - 2099 (bottom) for the average of sixteen climate models used for the 2007 IPCC report. For the 2010 - 2039 period, the models agree that 8% of Earth will see decreases in fire probability, 38% will see increases, and the models are too uncertain to tell for the other 54%. For the 2070 - 2099 period, the models agree that 20% of Earth will see decreases in fire probability, 62% will see increases, and the models are too uncertain to tell for the other 18%. Image credit: Climate change and disruptions to global fire activity, Moritz et al., 2012, from the journal Ecosphere.

Rare tornado hits Venice, Italy
A tornado hit Sant'Erasmo island in the lagoon surrounding Venice on Tuesday, ripping the roofs off of at least 12 buildings. No injuries were reported. The Capital Weather Gang has more videos and information on the event. Tornadoes are not unheard of in Venice; a strong one hit the city in 1970, killing 30 people.


Video 1. A waterspout/tornado in the Venice Lagoon on June 12, 2012.

The Atlantic is quiet
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic today. The NOGAPS and GFS models are predicting formation of a broad area of low pressure in the Western Caribbean early next week, and we will have to watch this area for development. The waters offshore of North Carolina may be another region to watch, over the next few days, along the edge of a cold front that has moved off the U.S. East Coast.

I'll have a new post Thursday or Friday.

Jeff Masters and Angela Fritz

Smokin' Hot Sun (BisonDoc)
Evening sky above the High Park Fire
Smokin' Hot Sun
Fire on the Mountain (BisonDoc)
This is the High Park Fire in Larimer County, Colorado on Day 2. The fire, first reported Saturday morning, June 9th, grew to 20,000 acres by late Sunday. More than 2,600 evacuation orders have been issued. View is looking west across Fort Collins toward the foothills above Horsetooth Reservoir.
Fire on the Mountain
Smokey Monday Sunset (MikePic)
The smoke has been nasty all along the front range, but made for a nice sunset.
Smokey Monday Sunset
High Park Wildfire (apphotos)
Fire burns through trees on the High Park wildfire near Fort Collins, Colo., on Monday, June 11, 2012. The wildfire is burning out of control in northern Colorado, while an unchecked blaze choked a small community in southern New Mexico as authorities in both regions battled fires Monday. (AP Photo/Ed Andrieski)
High Park Wildfire

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Quoting hydrus:
The models have been consistently showing this to be a large system. .Today is no exception.

Today they seem to be latching onto the "Hermine"('10) type of formation, track, and intensity... IDK :P the models just can't agree, and I'm about to rip out the stubble on my head(I got a buzz cut for the summer) because of these models! I want answers dammit! and these models aren't doing zilch, nada, squat, none, ZERO for forecasting this system.
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Quoting surferjoe5899:
Can we just get a hurricane aleady so the GoreBull warming blogs will stop?
"GoreBull warming"? Oh, wait, I get it! "Gorebull" because it sounds like "global" but it's Al Gore's last name, along with the word "bull", right? Right!? Hyuk, hyuk, hyuk! That's really funny! How long did it take you to come up with that original bit of comedy gold?

Oy, vey.

Anyway, speaking of the current blog topic--the massive fires in the West and climate change--those blazes continue to grow. Among the largest, the Whitewater-Baldy fire in New Mexico is up to nearly 290,000 acres (450 square miles), while Colorado's High Park fire has grown to nearly 47,000 acres, or 73 square miles. The SPC calls for critical fire conditions to return to near the High Park fire on days 5 and 6; we'll have to watch the forecast to see if that bears out. (Keep your fingers crossed.)
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The models have been consistently showing this to be a large system. .Today is no exception.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20977
961 CapeFearRising: I'm also in Wilmington and my yard is being swarmed by these buggers

"Kudzu...wasn't widely cultivated until the Great Depression, when New Deal-era federal workers planted the vine for erosion control. It quickly enveloped the rural South, growing as much as a foot a day in the steamy summer. Kudzu [now] covers trees and fields from southern Virginia as far west as Arkansas and south to the Florida Panhandle. Researchers have spent 50 years looking for ways to control it.
Megacopta cribraria...kills kudzu...that was itself an Asian import.
Scientists with the U.S. Forest Service, who have been searching for an Asian insect that could quell kudzu without harming other plants, see potential in the bug.
But the bug is also chewing up soybean...reducing some yields recently by as much as a quarter...
[So]...entomologists are trying to figure out how to help farmers protect soybean plants.
One entomologist went to Japan in search of a predator, with the most likely prospect a parasitic wasp that destroys kudzu bug eggs.
Daniel Suiter...is testing protocols for killing the bug with as few chemicals as possible.
A colleague...is culturing killer fungi that could potentially be introduced in the wild."

There was an old lady who swallowed a fly...
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
info only

my computer been infected with 3 viruses this am

java.exploit,avi 2 of them and a backdoor trojan zip file

everything ok removed them after computer shut down and went in auto protect mode

just letting it out there so if you see that name they are virus programs delete them or remove them asap


There is an update to Version 7 Update 5 on the Java.com site for those that use this software.

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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

I'm With ya! My grandpa died from lung cancer. and the other part of my family has a history with Colon Cancer :/


Cancer, especially colon runs on my Dad's side of the family, and a little bit on my Mom's. My grandma (Dad's side) is a two time colon cancer survivor. My grandfather died from a rare form of liver cancer a little over a year ago.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6876
Quoting fireflymom:
Oops and be tween two Suns? Toasty


Personally, I think that Mars would be about as interesting as the moon :|
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New blog. Read, appreciate, and comment. Or not.

Tropical Storm Carlotta strengthening, expected to become a hurricane
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Quoting weatherh98:


Grandma died from pancreatic cancer

I'm With ya! My grandpa died from lung cancer. and the other part of my family has a history with Colon Cancer :/
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Quoting weatherh98:


Grandma died from pancreatic cancer
We all die from something 98..I see where one might be concerned on the cancer issue. Nothing like a little ribbing..84 hour forecasts..
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Oops and be tween two Suns? Toasty
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Everyone...TO MARS!

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Quoting hydrus:
A little touchy about it arent cha?


Grandma died from pancreatic cancer
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Quoting weatherh98:


I dont like cancer
A little touchy about it arent cha?
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20977
Interesting feature off the VA/NC coast... getting a few sprinkles and is quite cloudy here in Central VA from that low. It's just past 11 here and we are stuck in the low 70s, had lows in the mid-upper 60s earlier this morning.

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Quoting hydrus:
wuss


I dont like cancer
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Quoting weatherh98:


To much radiation. i dont like it
wuss
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Quoting hydrus:
I love Mars......Dammittt.!


To much radiation. i dont like it
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Everyone...TO MARS!
I love Mars......Dammittt.!
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20977
Quoting aspectre:
930 surferjoe5899: Can we just get a hurricane aleady so the GoreBull warming blogs will stop?

Into self-inflicted pain? Nobody'd mentioned AGW last night through this morning until...
lol..I just put my head in the vice and crush. If I really need a pain fix, I refer back to previous blogs where AGW bantering is the thickest, by then I am in agony that taxes satisfactory verbal description and need not go further.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20977
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
45 mph initial intensity...could be conservative...90 mph peak...could be conservative...Hurricane Warnings up...Rapid intensification possible.


did you write a blog yet
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Experimental FIM on Typhoon Guchol
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting GTcooliebai:
The GFS model agrees with your thinking.




Looks like Japan is gonna get Whacked...
This'll probably be worse than Roke of last year...
Be back later.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
No hints of an eye yet, but that could change before too long



trying to get an eyewall together
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Quoting K8eCane:



Wilmington NC


I'm also in Wilmington and my yard is being swarmed by these buggers:

Link
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960. etxwx
From spaceweather.com: ELECTRIC-BLUE NOCTILUCENT CLOUDS: Data from NASA's AIM spacecraft show that noctilucent clouds (NLCs) are like a great "geophysical light bulb." They turn on every year in late spring, reaching almost full intensity over a period of no more than 5 to 10 days. News flash: The bulb is glowing. Flying photographer Brian Whittaker photographed these NLCs over Canada on June 13th:


"I was very happy to see my first noctilucent clouds of 2012," says Whittaker. "They were visible to the north for about 3 hours as we flew between Ottawa and Newfoundland at 35,000 feet."

These electric-blue clouds are hanging 85 km above Earth's surface, at the edge of space itself. Their origin is still largely a mystery; various theories associate them with space dust, rocket exhaust, global warming--or some mixture of the three. One thing is sure. They're baaack ... for the summer of 2012.

Observing tips: NLCs favor high latitudes, although they have been sighted as far south as Colorado and Virginia. Look west 30 to 60 minutes after sunset when the Sun has dipped 6o to 16o below the horizon. If you see luminous blue-white tendrils spreading across the sky, you may have spotted a noctilucent cloud.
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Quoting hydrus:
Sorry Joe..The Earth is warming and will become a star within the next few years. Our solar system thus becoming binary...If we pool our resources, we can build a ship to Mars.

Everyone...TO MARS!
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What phase of the AMDO are we in?
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930 surferjoe5899: Can we just get a hurricane aleady so the GoreBull warming blogs will stop?

Into self-inflicted pain much? Nobody'd mentioned AGW last night through this morning until...
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Oops... It's 8AM Pacific time so I thought it would be intermediate.

Its different everywhere around the continent...
Like here the intermediate advisories are an hour off.
ET: 2 Am/pm, 8 am/pm
CT: 1 am/pm, 7 am/pm
MT: 12 am/pm, 6 am/pm
PT: 11 am/pm, 5 am/pm
Pacific time is a bit confusing though, because the updates are technically opposite.
It's ok, we all make mistakes :P
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No hints of an eye yet, but that could change before too long

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7738
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I'm not liking the track trend on Guchol right now either... The forecast track shows it should start turning more north soon as it prepares to recurve towards Japan, but it looks to me like it's actually moving a little south of due west right now which increases the chances that Japan will be impacted... Also if this trend continues it will stay in more favorable conditions for a longer time and could get quite a bit stronger than forecast.
The GFS model agrees with your thinking.



Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I'm not liking the track trend on Guchol right now either... The forecast track shows it should start turning more north soon as it prepares to recurve towards Japan, but it looks to me like it's actually moving a little south of due west right now which increases the chances that Japan will be impacted... Also if this trend continues it will stay in more favorable conditions for a longer time and could get quite a bit stronger than forecast.
thanks for the update, I have a friend who works there,hope he is listening to his local weather
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Quoting surferjoe5899:
Can we just get a hurricane aleady so the GoreBull warming blogs will stop?
Sorry Joe..The Earth is warming and will become a star within the next few years. Our solar system thus becoming binary...If we pool our resources, we can build a ship to Mars.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20977
45 mph initial intensity...could be conservative...90 mph peak...could be conservative...Hurricane Warnings up...Rapid intensification possible.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31895
I guess that East coast low, was kind of a hoax afterall. NHC not interested, and it's really not looking like anything is gonna happen with it.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

What? No, it's a complete one. :P
Quoting CybrTeddy:


No its not. It's the 11am full package.

Only 2AM, 8AM, 2PM, 8PM are intermediates.

Oops... It's 8AM Pacific time so I thought it would be intermediate.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7738
919 wunderkidcayman: I think TS Carlotta will track N soon and the NE then ENE towards Guatemala
920 TropicalAnalystwx13: Steering currents aren't going to allow it to do that. It should continue a northwest motion for the next day at least before gaining an even more westerly component.

That's why I wanted to see the windfield associated with 95E. Obviously a disturbance doesn't have a single spin as such, but I was wondering whether the much broader windfield could be pushing a pseudoFujiwhara on Carlotta.
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..CARLOTTA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO...
8:00 AM PDT Thu Jun 14
Location: 10.9°N 93.6°W
Moving: NW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 1000 mb
Max sustained: 45 mp
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Quoting LargoFl:
gee Japan must have angered someone, every year its another disaster coming to it

I'm not liking the track trend on Guchol right now either... The forecast track shows it should start turning more north soon as it prepares to recurve towards Japan, but it looks to me like it's actually moving a little south of due west right now which increases the chances that Japan will be impacted... Also if this trend continues it will stay in more favorable conditions for a longer time and could get quite a bit stronger than forecast.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7738
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

They won't change much at this advisory though since it's an intermediate one.


No its not. It's the 11am full package.

Only 2AM, 8AM, 2PM, 8PM are intermediates.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23892
Quoting LargoFl:
would be interesting if it cut across and entered the gulf,there are mountains in its way but the rain just might make it across for texas to get some
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

They won't change much at this advisory though since it's an intermediate one.

What? No, it's a complete one. :P
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31895
TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032012
1500 UTC THU JUN 14 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM SALINA CRUZ TO PUNTA MALDONADO.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF PUNTA MALDONADO TO ACAPULCO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM SALINA CRUZ TO PUNTA MALDONADO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO EAST OF SALINA CRUZ TO BARRA DE TONALA
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF PUNTA MALDONADO TO ACAPULCO

INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF ACAPULCO TO CABO
CORRIENTES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CARLOTTA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 93.6W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 93.6W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 93.4W

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 11.9N 94.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 13.3N 95.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 14.6N 96.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.6N 97.7W...NEAR COAST
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 16.5N 99.5W...NEAR COAST
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 16.5N 100.0W...NEAR COAST
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 16.0N 100.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.9N 93.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Advisory will be out soon. The NHC is likely coordinating with the Government of Mexico to setup Tropical Storm and Hurricane Warnings.

They won't change much at this advisory though since it's an intermediate one.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7738
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

I am not dreaming
by the way much better pic the other one made you look ugly

LOL xD
Thanks
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THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
THE COMBINATION OF AMPLE MOISTURE A FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE REGION AND THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES
WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY. STORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE OF STORMS SETTING UP OVER INLAND LOCATIONS EAST OF THE I
75 CORRIDOR DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. STORMS THAT
DEVELOP TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AS AMPLE
MOISTURE AND A FRONTAL TROUGH REMAIN OVER THE REGION. DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION ON AN INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS DRIER AIR WILL LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH MINIMAL STORM COVERAGE EXPECTED EACH
DAY. THE INCREASING NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL HELP TO BUILD SEAS
OVER THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS TO
SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Advisory will be out soon. The NHC is likely coordinating with the Government of Mexico to setup Tropical Storm and Hurricane Warnings.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31895

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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