Wildfire smoke shrouds Denver; climate change expected to increase Western fires

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:16 PM GMT on June 13, 2012

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Colorado's third largest fire in recorded history, the High Park Fire, shrouded Denver and Fort Collins in acrid smoke Tuesday, causing an increase in emergency room visits related to smoke inhalation. The fire, currently burning fifteen miles west of Fort Collins, Colorado, covered over 43,000 acres (68 square miles) as of Tuesday. Firefighters reported that it was only 10% contained, and was exhibiting "extreme" behavior. A lightning strike triggered the fire on Saturday. While fire fighters try to control the southern edge of the fire, the northern perimeter is burning out of control. Six hundred eighty people and 100 fire engines are working on the ground to contain the blaze, along with air support from air tankers and helicopters. The fire has killed one person, burned 100 structures, and cost $1.6 million to fight so far. An air pollution action day has been declared for Wednesday all along the Front Range of the Rockies, from Denver to Fort Collins, due to smoke from the fire. Air pollution levels from smoke will be unhealthy for sensitive groups.


Figure 1. Fire burns in trees behind homes in the High Park wildfire near Fort Collins, Colorado, on Monday, June 11, 2012. (AP Photo)

Beetles, climate change, and Colorado fires
According to the Denver Post, the High Park Fire is burning in an area where 70% of the trees that have been killed by mountain pine beetles; the insects have devastated forests in western North America in recent years. As our climate change blogger, Dr. Ricky Rood explains, the pine beetle is killed (controlled) by temperatures less than -40°F. This is at the edge of the coldest temperatures normally seen in the U.S., and these cold extremes have largely disappeared since 1990. In Colorado, the lack of -40°F temperatures in winter has allowed the beetles to produce two broods of young per year, instead of one. The beetles are also attacking the pine trees up to a month earlier than the historic norm.


Figure 2. The historical mountain pine beetle (MPB) univoltine life cycle (above calendar arrows and linked by black arrows) and the observed MPB bivoltine life cycle (below calendar arrows and linked by red arrows). Univoltine means one brood per year, and bivoltine means two broods per year. Calendar arrow colors represent monthly temperature regimes: blue for less than 0°C, yellow for 0°-4.99°C, orange for 5°-9.99°C, and red for 10°C and higher. From Mitton and Ferrenberg, "Mountain Pine Beetle Develops an Unprecedented Summer Generation in Response to Climate Warming". This figure appeared in Dr. Ricky Rood's blog, "A Hot Day's Night: The Beetles".

A letter from the field in Colorado
Our climate change blogger, Dr. Ricky Rood, is in Boulder, Colorado this summer, and had this report on the fire Tuesday:

Saturday morning Iz and I were driving along 95th Street to Longmont to the Fairgrounds. We saw the initial plume; Iz said, "Looks like a volcano." At that time it was Colorado clear, with blue skies. The plume got to the top of its ascent and kicked off a little convection that looked like cauliflower. For the next few hours you could see the fire grow by the trunk of the plume getting thicker. It mostly blew to the east, with an occasional white cloud topping. It seemed to double in size every couple of hours.

By Sunday, the smoke was spreading all over the state. We had a couple of cool days with a northerly component in the wind. It filled up the sky, here, with haze - most of the day could not see Long's Peak. Part of the day couldn't see the foothills, say Flagstaff Mountain, which is about 8 miles away. Even with the wind moving around to the south, it's remained hazy. Today it has smelt of campfire-like smoke most of the day. Woke up sneezing. There is fine dust drawn to my computer screen and key board, which is at this point simply dirty. The dogs seem a little crazy.

It's not as acrid as the much closer Fourmile Fire a couple of years ago, but for some reason, it's the most dramatic fire I have experienced, perhaps because of the explosive nature of it. Tankers and helicopters fly over all day; they must stage from somewhere south of here. The tanks on them look hopelessly small compared with the fire, but they say, today, they finally made progress. The drought or drought potential is currently stunning, and we expect a lot of fire this year. Water only flowed in our irrigation ditch for four days before we lost priority.

There is a very nice figure in a local magazine, YS, that shows the percentage of snow pack compared with normal. We are South Platte - mid-May at 19 % normal, and not the worst in the state. Really, a nice little article in YS about how to predict a drought. Last year was nearly record wet. Right now this is setting up to be worse than the 2002 drought, which the article says was a 300 year drought. If true, then we had two 300 year droughts 10 years apart--some of our readers should be able to work on that as an attribution problem. The largest fire in Colorado history, the Hayman, was during the 2002 drought.


New Mexico's massive Whitewater Baldy Complex fire continues
The largest wildfire in New Mexico recorded history, the Whitewater Baldy Complex, continues to burn in the Gila National Forest. The lightning-sparked fire began nearly a month ago on May 15th, is 37% contained, and has devoured almost 280,000 acres (438 square miles.) Though fire weather advisories are not in effect in the region, the humidity is extremely low--humidity values of 6% were reported yesterday afternoon in Reserve, New Mexico, inside the burned area. Afternoon winds are expected to remain moderately strong, around 15 mph, over the next few days, as firefighters focus on keeping the southern edge of the fire from spreading. The fire has cost $22.6 million to fight so far.


Figure 3. The Whitewater Baldy Complex fire seen on our wundermap with the fire layer turned on. The red region outlined in yellow is the active fire perimeter.


Western U.S. wildfires expected to increase due to climate change
Expect a large increase in fires over much of the globe late this century due to climate change, says research published this month in the Journal Ecosphere. Using fire models driven by output from sixteen climate models used in the 2007 IPCC report, the researchers, led by Max Moritz of UC Berkeley, found that 38% of the planet should see increases in fire activity over the next 30 years. This figure increases to 62% by the end of the century. However, in many regions where precipitation is expected to increase--particularly in the tropics--there should be decreased fire activity. The scientists predicted that 8% of Earth will see decreases in fire probability over the next 30 years, and 20% will see decreases by the end of the century. The models do not agree on how fire danger will change for a large portion of the planet--54% for the period 2010 - 2039, and 18% for the period 2070 - 2099. Six key factors were found to control fire probabilities in the models. Most important was how much vegetation there was (NPP, Net Primary Productivity). Three other factors, about half as important, were precipitation of driest month, mean temperature of warmest month, and the difference between summer and winter temperature. Two other minor factors were mean temperature of wettest month, and annual precipitation. The authors found that future fire occurrence appears to primarily be a function of available moisture in many areas, and that the expected global increase in temperature of 3.5°C used in the models will not become the single dominant control on global wildfire. In the U.S., the regions most at risk of increased fires are the tundra regions of northern Alaska, and the West, with Arizona and Colorado at particularly high risk.


Figure 4. Predicted fractional change in fire probability for the period 2010 - 2039 (top) and 2070 - 2099 (bottom) for the average of sixteen climate models used for the 2007 IPCC report. For the 2010 - 2039 period, the models agree that 8% of Earth will see decreases in fire probability, 38% will see increases, and the models are too uncertain to tell for the other 54%. For the 2070 - 2099 period, the models agree that 20% of Earth will see decreases in fire probability, 62% will see increases, and the models are too uncertain to tell for the other 18%. Image credit: Climate change and disruptions to global fire activity, Moritz et al., 2012, from the journal Ecosphere.

Rare tornado hits Venice, Italy
A tornado hit Sant'Erasmo island in the lagoon surrounding Venice on Tuesday, ripping the roofs off of at least 12 buildings. No injuries were reported. The Capital Weather Gang has more videos and information on the event. Tornadoes are not unheard of in Venice; a strong one hit the city in 1970, killing 30 people.


Video 1. A waterspout/tornado in the Venice Lagoon on June 12, 2012.

The Atlantic is quiet
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic today. The NOGAPS and GFS models are predicting formation of a broad area of low pressure in the Western Caribbean early next week, and we will have to watch this area for development. The waters offshore of North Carolina may be another region to watch, over the next few days, along the edge of a cold front that has moved off the U.S. East Coast.

I'll have a new post Thursday or Friday.

Jeff Masters and Angela Fritz

Smokin' Hot Sun (BisonDoc)
Evening sky above the High Park Fire
Smokin' Hot Sun
Fire on the Mountain (BisonDoc)
This is the High Park Fire in Larimer County, Colorado on Day 2. The fire, first reported Saturday morning, June 9th, grew to 20,000 acres by late Sunday. More than 2,600 evacuation orders have been issued. View is looking west across Fort Collins toward the foothills above Horsetooth Reservoir.
Fire on the Mountain
Smokey Monday Sunset (MikePic)
The smoke has been nasty all along the front range, but made for a nice sunset.
Smokey Monday Sunset
High Park Wildfire (apphotos)
Fire burns through trees on the High Park wildfire near Fort Collins, Colo., on Monday, June 11, 2012. The wildfire is burning out of control in northern Colorado, while an unchecked blaze choked a small community in southern New Mexico as authorities in both regions battled fires Monday. (AP Photo/Ed Andrieski)
High Park Wildfire

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Quoting CybrTeddy:

Sure, 72 hours has a system off the US East Coast.
I really don`t see from where we could get Chris of the Southeast coast.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I'm starting to take the threat of Gulf development in 8-10 days time a little more seriously... Several recent runs of the GFS have shown a Gulf Storm, the CMC has been showing one, and even the Euro has put a low in the Gulf around that time as of its 0z run... Also of note most of the GFS ensemble members have a Gulf storm around 10 days from now, an indication that the GFS isn't just spitting out garbage. Plus conditions will be conducive around that area at that time so it's a real possibility. I bet we see one on the 12z GFS.


I've been More serious for about two days, always need to watch this area in june
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Gosh, Neo. You might want to pay a visit to The Bad S Ranch (my current wublog) for some perspective on why these dang deniers just can't get it right.

people have always been scared
to face the truth
until its kicking them in the arse
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56140
Quoting zomibe:
One reason for more wildfires is very dry drought condition.secondly the gov't won't let the forest service do control Burns. And sometimes we go through cycles. Were just in a very dry period rite now.


And it's effecting more people than every as cities and rural areas expand
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Quoting Neapolitan:
Perhaps I could. Or perhaps you could read my entire comment instead of focusing on one sentence taken out of context? Or--even better--perhaps you could read Dr. Masters' entire blog entry? And perhaps that might clear up some of your confusion about the "something" to which I'm referring? Perhaps?

Anyway, you are correct in stating that people can't be forced to agree or admit to anything; denial is a very strong force. You know, some people may stand on a mountain slope while they deny there's an avalanche speeding toward them--but that denial isn't gonna stop it from hitting them, is it?
Gosh, Neo. You might want to pay a visit to (edit - blog title removed) my current wublog, for some perspective on why these dang deniers just can't get it right. Add: specifically comment 35.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:

Sure, 72 hours has a system off the US East Coast.


Thank you
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
I'm starting to take the threat of Gulf development in 8-10 days time a little more seriously... Several recent runs of the GFS have shown a Gulf Storm, the CMC has been showing one, and even the Euro has put a low in the Gulf around that time as of its 0z run... Also of note most of the GFS ensemble members have a Gulf storm around 10 days from now, an indication that the GFS isn't just spitting out garbage. Plus conditions will be conducive around that area at that time so it's a real possibility. I bet we see one on the 12z GFS.
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Quoting weatherh98:


Could you post the images I can't see them because I'm on my phone

Sure, 72 hours has a system off the US East Coast.
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One reason for more wildfires is very dry drought condition.secondly the gov't won't let the forest service do control Burns. And sometimes we go through cycles. Were just in a very dry period rite now.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
12z GFS is running.


Could you post the images I can't see them because I'm on my phone
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Thanks Dr. Masters and Angela.

I am quite worried about our upcoming summer with a predicted el nino. Our last 3 summers have been very wet around the Sydney and NSW in general. All that undergrowth is just a bomb waiting for a spark. A typical el nino summer is very hot and low humidity. the 2 main ingredients needed to fire conditions. I dread what this coming summer holds for Sydney and NSW.
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Beetles, climate change, and Colorado fires
According to the Denver Post, the High Park Fire is burning in an area where 70% of the trees that have been killed by mountain pine beetles...

I have trouble blaming the proliferation of beetles on warming temps when (it seems) Ft. Collins has "lacked" -40F temps since 1895, in recorded history you might say, and has experienced only rare instances of temps even close to that low. Perhaps I am looking in the wrong geographic area for the beetlecidal temps.
Ft. Collins, CO Monthly extreme minimum temperatures (F)

Forest management, e.g. not thinning pine forests, has also contributed to happy beetles.

Presuming fire kills not only the habitat but the beetle itself, one might view this lightning-caused fire as Nature taking care of the Pine Beetle epidemic in its own way.

Sorry the humans in such a populated area are having to deal with the smoke and fire.

RIP Pine Beetle - till the next go-round.
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12z GFS is running.
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Quoting Hurricanes305:


More like this weekend as the Caribbean looks rather moist right now and pressures should be lowering by then. However it wont be till Monday before it develops into something.


One thing to remember is that these broad areas of low pressure take a painfully long time to develop most of the time. Personally I always add a couple days to what I think will happen to compensate for that. Human nature is always to speed things along. While it may start to form later this weekend, it could be mid-week before anything interesting evolves.
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Quoting DocBen:


Science has a liberal bias in the view of the tea-party Luddites. So do facts.

Sadly, Facts passed away recently, and is no longer with us.
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Quoting aspectre:
11 yqt1001: The images in the blog post about future fire probabilities shows a decrease in forest fires up here! :O I don't know how that is possible since as it is 99% of this region is solid boreal forest.

Tech doesn't subscribe to Ecosphere*, so it's purely guess work on my part:
1) They're expecting that the northwind blowing across the defrosted HudsonBay will pick up massive amounts of moisture and dump a LOT of rain&snow on Ontario.
2) They're assuming a lack of (partial) forest die-offs because bark beetles larvae will decide they don't like munching on Eastern trees.

* On the other hand, take a look at NorthAfrica. Somehow picturing vegetation dense enough to sustain a wildfire is a bit beyond me. ?Regreening of the Sahara?


I think the increased fares in Africa are Sahel, not Sahara. Likely brush fires like in southern California.
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Quoting aspectre:
868 aspectre: GlobalWarming? 19 major wildfires rage across 9 western states


948 Neapolitan: As others have noted, it's not just the anti-science, profit-above-people dolts in North Carolina; Virginia is getting in on the denial-of-truth action, too:
In Virginia, "Jury's Still Out" on Global Warming. By Charles P. Pierce
Last week, in our weekly recap of what's going on in the various laboratories of democracy, I mentioned that the North Carolina state legislature had moved to combat the effects of global climate change on that state's seacoast by simply declaring that climate change didn't exist as far as the North Carolina state legislature was concerned.

Now, it seems, that this revolutionary new approach is catching fire elsewhere. Virginia's losing its salt marshes by the acres, and the primary job of the state's political establishment seems to be that all will be well if they just don't mention why:
To pass the bill, at Stolle's suggestion Northam excised the words "relative sea level rise" from an initial draft of the bill, replacing them with "recurrent flooding" in the final version. Stolle says the change was necessary to ensure the bill focused on the issues Virginia politicians can handle -- flooding -- and not those they cannot address -- global warming. In any case, "the jury's still out" on mankind's contribution to global warming, he says. "Other folks can go argue about sea-level rise and global warming," Stolle says. "What matters is people's homes are getting destroyed, and that's what we want to focus on. To think that we are going to stop climate change is absolute hubris. The climate is going to change whether we're here or not."

And, some day, several millennia from now, when nature has begun evolution all over again with the bees, if there are any of those left after we get done with them, the bee lords will conduct earnest symposia about the mounting archaeological evidence that, once on this planet, stupidity was an extinction-level event.
Grow gills, people. Do it immediately.
Isn't it odd that scientifically accurate language is increasingly seen by some as having a liberal bias? :-\


Science has a liberal bias in the view of the tea-party Luddites. So do facts.
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11 yqt1001: The images in the blog post about future fire probabilities shows a decrease in forest fires up here! :O I don't know how that is possible since as it is 99% of this region is solid boreal forest.

Tech doesn't subscribe to Ecosphere*, so it's purely guess work on my part:
1) They're expecting that the northwind blowing across the defrosted HudsonBay will pick up massive amounts of moisture, then dump a LOT of rain and lake-effect snow on Ontario.
2) They're assuming a lack of (partial) forest die-offs because bark beetle larvae will decide they don't like munching on Eastern trees. Fewer dead trees than in the West means less likelyhood of a wildfire starting&spreading.

* On the other hand, take a look at NorthAfrica. Somehow picturing vegetation dense enough to sustain a wildfire is a bit beyond me. ?Regreening of the Sahara?
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Quoting Jrrtrollkien:
"even the most steadfast denialist would be forced to agree that something is going on."

"Something" is rather vague....perhaps you should be a little more specific on what that "something" is. By the way, people can't be forced to agree on anything, particularly when that anything is simply a "something".

Dig?
Perhaps I could. Or perhaps you could read my entire comment instead of focusing on one sentence taken out of context? Or--even better--perhaps you could read Dr. Masters' entire blog entry? And perhaps that might clear up some of your confusion about the "something" to which I'm referring? Perhaps?

Anyway, you are correct in stating that people can't be forced to agree or admit to anything; denial is a very strong force. You know, some people may stand on a mountain slope while they deny there's an avalanche speeding toward them--but that denial isn't gonna stop it from hitting them, is it?
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13803
Quoting jeffs713:

Even though I have him ignored, Joe B (aka "Help4u") is always good for a laugh at how some people are so misinformed.


Yeah I agree it's as he tried recruiting people to his site from here.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
You're right; there is too much "gloom and doom", here and everywhere else. I think I'll just stop going on the internet; I'll cease watching TV and listening to the radio; I'll not read any more magazines or newspapers or books; I won't talk to anybody who dares to say a word about anything going on in the world today. Nope! Instead, I'll simply spend all my time just sitting back in a silent, walled-off, locked-door room, hermetically sealed from what's going on outside. Because if I can't see or hear about anything gloomy or doomy, it clearly no longer exists--and if it no longer exists, or if I only hear about it in carefully-selected words meant to not offend or scare me, it's no longer a problem! That sounds like heaven! Utopia! Nirvana! Perfection!!! ;-)

Even though I have him ignored, Joe B (aka "Help4u") is always good for a laugh at how some people are so misinformed.
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Pat,recon on Friday afternoon for 94E.

NOUS42 KNHC 131330
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT WED JUN 132012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 14/1100Z TO 15/1100Z JUN 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-026

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: FIX OF A POSSIBLE DEVELOPING
HURRICANE AT 15/1800Z NEAR 13.5N 95.5W
JWP
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Quoting hydrus:
If it were wintertime, we would have had some interesting weather this past month with these types of patterns. This run has New Orleans being hit with a storm..--Over the Yucatan-..Into the gulf.. SSW of New Orleans..Landfall...

Give me it.
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Maybe a TD later today.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED JUN 13 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 09N91W EMBEDDED ALONG THE MONSOON
TROUGH N OF A FAIRLY STRONG SW MONSOONAL FLOW. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS
MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM OF LOW.
VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE LOW CURRENTLY IS A MODERATE 10-20
KT...BUT IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH...60 PERCENT...CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NW
TOWARD TEHUANTEPEC. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THIS
SYSTEM COULD DEEPEN QUICKLY ONCE THE CENTER BECOMES BETTER
ORGANIZED. INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTS OF SOUTHEAST MEXICO SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THIS SYSTEM. IF THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY...THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST OF
MAXIMUM WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED.
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.."I like it here, the entry is just da right height"..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902

A firefighter watches a backfire set to protect a ranch along Grimes Canyon Road in Ventura County in 2009. (Los Angeles Times / June 12, 2012)


Global warming could lead to more wildfire in California: study



By Bettina Boxall

June 12, 2012, 11:24 a.m.

California and the West, which have experienced a surge in wildfire during the last decade, can expect more of the same with global warming, according to a study published Tuesday.

“A lot of the West, California included, really does look like it’s headed into a more fire-prone future,” said Max Moritz, a UC Cooperative Extension wildfire specialist and lead author of a new paper that examined climate change’s likely effects on global fire patterns.

The American West will not be alone, according to the research, published in the journal Ecosphere. While the forecast for the next few decades is less certain, by century’s end, much of the world will experience more wildfire than it does now, the study concluded.

That includes the tundra and forests of the Far North, temperate grasslands and regions with a Mediterranean climate such as Southern California. Notable exceptions include tropical rain forests, where increased rainfall could actually decrease wildfire.

The team of UC Berkeley scientists who led the study adapted an approach that has been used to evaluate the effect of climate change on plants and animals and applied it to wildfire. They gathered global wildfire and climate data for roughly the last decade and examined climate variables that affect fuel availability.

Using 16 different global climate models, they then developed forecasts for the future. "Most of the previous wildfire projection studies focused on specific regions of the world, or relied upon only a handful of climate models," said co-author Katherine Hayhoe, director of the Climate Science Center at Texas Tech University.

Rising temperatures lengthen the fire season and dry out vegetation, making it more flammable, especially in mountain forests. But the authors said that temperature is not the only, or necessarily even the dominant, factor in many landscapes where changing precipitation patterns will modify wildfire cycles.

More rain in the tropics could decrease fire. In other areas that are not so wet, it could increase plant growth, producing more fuel to burn. And while diminished rainfall dries out vegetation, it can also reduce fuel levels by stunting plant growth, cutting the potential for fire.

“Fire is not going anywhere,” Moritz said, adding that the study results emphasize the need “to rethink how we live with fire and take it more seriously.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
Quoting help4u:
The daily gloom and doom on this blog bring me back every day.I quess i like to hear all the stories of death and destruction caused by man!Other than that the weather has been great in Indiana and alot cooler than last summer.Weather looks great for vacation out to yellowstone.Also 4 more year's of Obama coal and energy policy and most on here will be happy!We have alot of great living to do the next 4 years!May not have jobs or food on the table but we saved the earth to live our miserable lives!!Have a GREAT,BLESSED,DAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
You're right; there is too much "gloom and doom", here and everywhere else. I think I'll just stop going on the internet; I'll cease watching TV and listening to the radio; I'll not read any more magazines or newspapers or books; I won't talk to anybody who dares to say a word about anything going on in the world today. Nope! Instead, I'll simply spend all my time just sitting back in a silent, walled-off, locked-door room, hermetically sealed from what's going on outside. Because if I can't see or hear about anything gloomy or doomy, it clearly no longer exists--and if it no longer exists, or if I only hear about it in carefully-selected words meant to not offend or scare me, it's no longer a problem! That sounds like heaven! Utopia! Nirvana! Perfection!!! ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13803
Basically the pattern in place later this week may again develope later next week as it appears we have a healthy dose of troughs swinging by about every 5 days or so.

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Quoting hydrus:
Does yhat not look like a winter map...geez


It does and that is why all of these people that are saying a TX is the place of landfall may want to wait before commiting to that theory as there appears to be another trough digging in late next week.

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some1Has2bTheRookie come out from hiding.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17823
Quoting hydrus:
If it were wintertime, we would have had some interesting weather this past month with these types of patterns. This run has New Orleans being hit with a storm..--Over the Yucatan-..Into the gulf.. SSW of New Orleans..Landfall...


Not really as the GFS keeps it offshore and moves it east to the FL Big Bend.

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Quoting hydrus:
Does yhat not look like a winter map...geez


our local NWS was talking about the multiple low pressures that might form later this week in their last night discussion..this happened with Beryl as well
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16225
Quoting jeffs713:

Hope your AC doesn't break. Anything more than a day or two out is questionable for storms.

Thanks again...I'm sure my a/c will be fine! It's not old anyways!
Member Since: June 4, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 767
Quoting ncstorm:
now this would be interesting..off the GFS 06z Ensemble members..this week

Does yhat not look like a winter map...geez
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NSSL WRF 4 km grid initialized 00 UTC Jun 13 2012

36 h Total Precipitation (mm)
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Quoting STXHurricanes2012:

lol thanks! Just wondering how the weather is going to cooperate?

Hope your AC doesn't break. Anything more than a day or two out is questionable for storms.
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These western states need to get with the program and ban the mention of "wildfire" in all public venues. Instead they must be referred to as "Temporarily Uncontrolled Burning Events" or just TUBEs for short.

Heavy smoke from a TUBE is therefore only a Reduced Visibility Event (RVE), just make sure your Recreational Vehicle Excursion doesn't run into one of these RVEs or you may experience an Extreme De-acceleration Event...
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Quoting STXHurricanes2012:
Morning all,Going on vacation this Saturday,first going through Denver,CO then going across the plains to head to Chicago wonder what weather it'll be like traveling lol!

Big Fires in Colorado... very smokey in the Denver Area !
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now this would be interesting..off the GFS 06z Ensemble members..this week

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16225
Quoting Hurricanes305:
I believe with all the moisture in the Caribbean right now and the return of a strong MJO pulse to add even more moisture will cause air to pile up and get some intense and consistent convection we could see something organize slowly starting this weekend(as it will be broad and will take some time to tighten up and work its way down to the surface)into a system. After that it will sit in the NW Caribbean then starts to organize a little bit into a moderate T-storm by early next week until a piece of trough come down and pick it up into the GOM where conditions should be favorable (< 15 knots of shear) as it sit under an upper ridge and forms into a hurricane then hit Florida as from Tampa to the Keys by late next week. However its just a theory right now but, it needs to careful come next week. On the possibility of a subtropical system seems possible but is less likely as most of the upper ridging will be focus in the GOM and Caribbean leaving behind dry air and high shear over the east coast.
Reminds me of Alex when you say that,,Storms that for in this way tend to be unusually wet and dangerous. Very rare to get them in June..Here is just a taste of what happened with Alex..The storm caused severe devastation in Nuevo León, and in particular throughout the Monterrey metropolitan area. State governor Rodrigo Medina de la Cruz noted that the city of Monterrey had "collapsed due to the worst weather phenomenon in its history." In the municipality of Santa Catarina alone, 50,000 people were affected, with property damage being estimated at $1.2 billion (2010 MXN; 93.5 million USD). Residents from 3 colonias in García had to be permanently relocated as 800 homes were destroyed; the storm caused $900 million (2010 MXN; 70 million USD) in damage in the municipality. The flooding Santa Catarina River destroyed four bridges in Monterrey; at least 60 bridges were damaged statewide. Governor Medina also announced on July 3 the allocation of $1.4 billion (2010 MXN; $107 million USD) for repairs to Monterrey's arterial streets. Municipalities in the metropolitan area used contraflow during part of the day to re-establish traffic in sections where the arterial streets bordering the Santa Catarina River were damaged only in one direction. The repairs to Monterrey's main roadways were estimated to take up to three months to complete.

Railway traffic throughout the state was paralyzed, as some train bridges collapsed, and extensive damage was found in the track ballast in multiple rail lines. Kansas City Southern Railway reported it expected a net loss of five cents per share on its annual earnings due to the stoppage affecting its Mexican subsidiary. The company later reported a drop of $33 million (2010 USD) in revenue due to hurricane damage. The damage to the railway infrastructure caused automotive part shortages throughout North America. General Motors was forced to cancel shifts at plants in Michigan, Missouri and Kansas. Ford also idled production in its Oakville, Ontario assembly plant, and suffered two-week delays in U.S. deliveries of its Fiesta model due to the rail track damage. The damage to the road system paralyzed a route used by 40% of the trade between the United States and Mexico, as 22,000 trucks were stalled after damage to the Nuevo Laredo–Monterrey highway.

Alex destroyed the potable water infrastructure in portions of Nuevo León, causing widespread shortages of water. The damage to the water infrastructure was described as being of "unexpected magnitude," with 160,000 left without water a week after the storm made landfall. The standing water left following the rainfall caused concern of outbreaks of various diseases, including cholera. Consequently, the population was warned to boil or otherwise disinfect water to prevent disease. In areas where the storm's impact made it difficult to boil water due to the unavailability of gas or stoves, 70,000 jars with colloidal silver were distributed. Additionally, laboratory testing of refuse coming from individuals with gastrointestinary illnesses commenced as a precaution to identify outbreaks of cholera and other diseases, and over 82,000 vaccines were applied throughout the region. Following the storm's passage, PROFECO announced fines of up to $2.5 million (2010 MXN; $191,000 USD) to merchants guilty of price gouging when selling bottled water. This occurred after the agency received complaints of 1500% markups when compared to bottled water's pre-storm price. On July 7, the agency announced it had applied sanctions to 20 businesses who were found overcharging for bottled water.
Economic and environmental effects

According to estimates from the Mexican Secretariat of Agriculture, Livestock, Rural Development, Fisheries and Food (SAGARPA), 504,000 acres (203,800 ha) of farmland were damaged as a result from Alex in northeastern Mexico, corresponding to 11% of the total farmland in Tamaulipas, Nuevo León and Coahuila. Most of the agricultural damage occurred in Tamaulipas, where 270,000 acres (110,000 ha) of sorghum and 200,000 acres (80,000 ha) of maize were damaged, corresponding to 15.6% of the entirety of the state's farmland, and 76% of the state's maize crop; 1,700 acres (700 ha) of grapefruit and limes were also damaged, corresponding to 15% of the state's citrus production. Two thousand heads of cattle were also lost in Nuevo Laredo. In Nuevo León and Coahuila, most of the damage was to animal husbandry; in Nuevo León, 3,645 heads of cattle, 3,580 goats, 7,265 sheep and 194 horses were lost, while in Coahuila, 3,709 goats, 258 cattle and 56 sheep were killed.

The storm also affected commerce throughout the region. The Mexican Secretariat of Economy calculated that Alex affected 2,500 small and medium enterprises in Nuevo León, 500 in Tamaulipas, and 500–700 in Coahuila. In Monterrey, chapter of the Confederation of National Chambers of Commerce reported that in the first two days after Hurricane Alex affected the city, businesses in the city lost $750 million (2010 MXN; 58 million USD). Overall, the lost business due to Alex is expected to total about $2 billion (2010 MXN; 156 million USD).

As floodwaters receded from the Pesquería River in Escobedo, Nuevo León, the remnants of a 15,000-year-old mammoth were discovered by local residents. It is believed that the remains were carried from the state of Coahuila to Escobedo by the floodwaters. The remnants were identified and dated by personnel from the Instituto Nacional de Antropología e Historia.
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Quoting yqt1001:
The images in the blog post about future fire probabilities shows a decrease in forest fires up here! :O I don't know how that is possible since as it is 99% of this region is solid boreal forest.


Where is "up here"?

Is it possible that up here is one of the areas with higher expected precipitation going forward?
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Quoting washingtonian115:
And when is this suppose to take place?.


Later this week.
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Quoting jeffs713:

Driving through the TX Panhandle - watch your speed... Lots of speed traps. There is a bunch of beautiful country on the way to Denver. Once you leave Denver, After you pass Limon (if you're taking I-70), its VERY flat. With lots of corn. If you're taking I-76, the scenery is better until you get to Nebraska... and then it is painfully flat and corn-y.

lol thanks! Just wondering how the weather is going to cooperate?
Member Since: June 4, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 767
"Jury's Still Out" on Global Warming.

Yep, that it is.

The jury has returned the guilty verdict.

Now they are debating the sentence....
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Quoting STXHurricanes2012:

Driving

Driving through the TX Panhandle - watch your speed... Lots of speed traps. There is a bunch of beautiful country on the way to Denver. Once you leave Denver, After you pass Limon (if you're taking I-70), its VERY flat. With lots of corn. If you're taking I-76, the scenery is better until you get to Nebraska... and then it is painfully flat and corn-y.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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