Wildfire smoke shrouds Denver; climate change expected to increase Western fires

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:16 PM GMT on June 13, 2012

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Colorado's third largest fire in recorded history, the High Park Fire, shrouded Denver and Fort Collins in acrid smoke Tuesday, causing an increase in emergency room visits related to smoke inhalation. The fire, currently burning fifteen miles west of Fort Collins, Colorado, covered over 43,000 acres (68 square miles) as of Tuesday. Firefighters reported that it was only 10% contained, and was exhibiting "extreme" behavior. A lightning strike triggered the fire on Saturday. While fire fighters try to control the southern edge of the fire, the northern perimeter is burning out of control. Six hundred eighty people and 100 fire engines are working on the ground to contain the blaze, along with air support from air tankers and helicopters. The fire has killed one person, burned 100 structures, and cost $1.6 million to fight so far. An air pollution action day has been declared for Wednesday all along the Front Range of the Rockies, from Denver to Fort Collins, due to smoke from the fire. Air pollution levels from smoke will be unhealthy for sensitive groups.


Figure 1. Fire burns in trees behind homes in the High Park wildfire near Fort Collins, Colorado, on Monday, June 11, 2012. (AP Photo)

Beetles, climate change, and Colorado fires
According to the Denver Post, the High Park Fire is burning in an area where 70% of the trees that have been killed by mountain pine beetles; the insects have devastated forests in western North America in recent years. As our climate change blogger, Dr. Ricky Rood explains, the pine beetle is killed (controlled) by temperatures less than -40°F. This is at the edge of the coldest temperatures normally seen in the U.S., and these cold extremes have largely disappeared since 1990. In Colorado, the lack of -40°F temperatures in winter has allowed the beetles to produce two broods of young per year, instead of one. The beetles are also attacking the pine trees up to a month earlier than the historic norm.


Figure 2. The historical mountain pine beetle (MPB) univoltine life cycle (above calendar arrows and linked by black arrows) and the observed MPB bivoltine life cycle (below calendar arrows and linked by red arrows). Univoltine means one brood per year, and bivoltine means two broods per year. Calendar arrow colors represent monthly temperature regimes: blue for less than 0°C, yellow for 0°-4.99°C, orange for 5°-9.99°C, and red for 10°C and higher. From Mitton and Ferrenberg, "Mountain Pine Beetle Develops an Unprecedented Summer Generation in Response to Climate Warming". This figure appeared in Dr. Ricky Rood's blog, "A Hot Day's Night: The Beetles".

A letter from the field in Colorado
Our climate change blogger, Dr. Ricky Rood, is in Boulder, Colorado this summer, and had this report on the fire Tuesday:

Saturday morning Iz and I were driving along 95th Street to Longmont to the Fairgrounds. We saw the initial plume; Iz said, "Looks like a volcano." At that time it was Colorado clear, with blue skies. The plume got to the top of its ascent and kicked off a little convection that looked like cauliflower. For the next few hours you could see the fire grow by the trunk of the plume getting thicker. It mostly blew to the east, with an occasional white cloud topping. It seemed to double in size every couple of hours.

By Sunday, the smoke was spreading all over the state. We had a couple of cool days with a northerly component in the wind. It filled up the sky, here, with haze - most of the day could not see Long's Peak. Part of the day couldn't see the foothills, say Flagstaff Mountain, which is about 8 miles away. Even with the wind moving around to the south, it's remained hazy. Today it has smelt of campfire-like smoke most of the day. Woke up sneezing. There is fine dust drawn to my computer screen and key board, which is at this point simply dirty. The dogs seem a little crazy.

It's not as acrid as the much closer Fourmile Fire a couple of years ago, but for some reason, it's the most dramatic fire I have experienced, perhaps because of the explosive nature of it. Tankers and helicopters fly over all day; they must stage from somewhere south of here. The tanks on them look hopelessly small compared with the fire, but they say, today, they finally made progress. The drought or drought potential is currently stunning, and we expect a lot of fire this year. Water only flowed in our irrigation ditch for four days before we lost priority.

There is a very nice figure in a local magazine, YS, that shows the percentage of snow pack compared with normal. We are South Platte - mid-May at 19 % normal, and not the worst in the state. Really, a nice little article in YS about how to predict a drought. Last year was nearly record wet. Right now this is setting up to be worse than the 2002 drought, which the article says was a 300 year drought. If true, then we had two 300 year droughts 10 years apart--some of our readers should be able to work on that as an attribution problem. The largest fire in Colorado history, the Hayman, was during the 2002 drought.


New Mexico's massive Whitewater Baldy Complex fire continues
The largest wildfire in New Mexico recorded history, the Whitewater Baldy Complex, continues to burn in the Gila National Forest. The lightning-sparked fire began nearly a month ago on May 15th, is 37% contained, and has devoured almost 280,000 acres (438 square miles.) Though fire weather advisories are not in effect in the region, the humidity is extremely low--humidity values of 6% were reported yesterday afternoon in Reserve, New Mexico, inside the burned area. Afternoon winds are expected to remain moderately strong, around 15 mph, over the next few days, as firefighters focus on keeping the southern edge of the fire from spreading. The fire has cost $22.6 million to fight so far.


Figure 3. The Whitewater Baldy Complex fire seen on our wundermap with the fire layer turned on. The red region outlined in yellow is the active fire perimeter.


Western U.S. wildfires expected to increase due to climate change
Expect a large increase in fires over much of the globe late this century due to climate change, says research published this month in the Journal Ecosphere. Using fire models driven by output from sixteen climate models used in the 2007 IPCC report, the researchers, led by Max Moritz of UC Berkeley, found that 38% of the planet should see increases in fire activity over the next 30 years. This figure increases to 62% by the end of the century. However, in many regions where precipitation is expected to increase--particularly in the tropics--there should be decreased fire activity. The scientists predicted that 8% of Earth will see decreases in fire probability over the next 30 years, and 20% will see decreases by the end of the century. The models do not agree on how fire danger will change for a large portion of the planet--54% for the period 2010 - 2039, and 18% for the period 2070 - 2099. Six key factors were found to control fire probabilities in the models. Most important was how much vegetation there was (NPP, Net Primary Productivity). Three other factors, about half as important, were precipitation of driest month, mean temperature of warmest month, and the difference between summer and winter temperature. Two other minor factors were mean temperature of wettest month, and annual precipitation. The authors found that future fire occurrence appears to primarily be a function of available moisture in many areas, and that the expected global increase in temperature of 3.5°C used in the models will not become the single dominant control on global wildfire. In the U.S., the regions most at risk of increased fires are the tundra regions of northern Alaska, and the West, with Arizona and Colorado at particularly high risk.


Figure 4. Predicted fractional change in fire probability for the period 2010 - 2039 (top) and 2070 - 2099 (bottom) for the average of sixteen climate models used for the 2007 IPCC report. For the 2010 - 2039 period, the models agree that 8% of Earth will see decreases in fire probability, 38% will see increases, and the models are too uncertain to tell for the other 54%. For the 2070 - 2099 period, the models agree that 20% of Earth will see decreases in fire probability, 62% will see increases, and the models are too uncertain to tell for the other 18%. Image credit: Climate change and disruptions to global fire activity, Moritz et al., 2012, from the journal Ecosphere.

Rare tornado hits Venice, Italy
A tornado hit Sant'Erasmo island in the lagoon surrounding Venice on Tuesday, ripping the roofs off of at least 12 buildings. No injuries were reported. The Capital Weather Gang has more videos and information on the event. Tornadoes are not unheard of in Venice; a strong one hit the city in 1970, killing 30 people.


Video 1. A waterspout/tornado in the Venice Lagoon on June 12, 2012.

The Atlantic is quiet
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic today. The NOGAPS and GFS models are predicting formation of a broad area of low pressure in the Western Caribbean early next week, and we will have to watch this area for development. The waters offshore of North Carolina may be another region to watch, over the next few days, along the edge of a cold front that has moved off the U.S. East Coast.

I'll have a new post Thursday or Friday.

Jeff Masters and Angela Fritz

Smokin' Hot Sun (BisonDoc)
Evening sky above the High Park Fire
Smokin' Hot Sun
Fire on the Mountain (BisonDoc)
This is the High Park Fire in Larimer County, Colorado on Day 2. The fire, first reported Saturday morning, June 9th, grew to 20,000 acres by late Sunday. More than 2,600 evacuation orders have been issued. View is looking west across Fort Collins toward the foothills above Horsetooth Reservoir.
Fire on the Mountain
Smokey Monday Sunset (MikePic)
The smoke has been nasty all along the front range, but made for a nice sunset.
Smokey Monday Sunset
High Park Wildfire (apphotos)
Fire burns through trees on the High Park wildfire near Fort Collins, Colo., on Monday, June 11, 2012. The wildfire is burning out of control in northern Colorado, while an unchecked blaze choked a small community in southern New Mexico as authorities in both regions battled fires Monday. (AP Photo/Ed Andrieski)
High Park Wildfire

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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


I kinda agree with the 60% as convection is still not like a CDO type.

The TWO is supposed to be for the chances of tropical cyclone formation over the next 48 hours, not how good it looks currently.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32694
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Quoting hydrus:
I was thinking the same thing.. The GFS in 228 hours and at 240 has the system moving toward Texas. I have suspected for a quite a few days that this will be a large system.


Thanks for the images i said it would be a large broad system this weekend that de-attached itself from the monsoonal trough with the two pieces heading in separate directions
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
94E stays at 60%...huh...

95E down to 10%.


I kinda agree with the 60% as convection is still not like a CDO type.
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Quoting AussieStorm:
I'm off to bed all. goodnight. Stay safe and enjoy your day :-)

Same to you Aussie!
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Quoting WxGeekVA:


Whoa, UKMET really wants the Atkantic to heat up!

It's the GFS not UKMET
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Quoting Tribucanes:
Trollnken, whatever his handle, is a perfect case for what's happening in Republican leaning states. Void of truth, unwilling to truly seek truth, willing to ridicule truth, willing tries to corrupt truth in others, and when undeniable truths are presented; they still deny with non-truths. It's generational, just like racism, ignorance is passed down too.


Sorry dear, no, my view is just what it is. My view; nothing more, nothing less.
Your attempts to insult me fall on deaf ears. We have differing opinions; it's as simple as that. The other difference lies in the fact that you feel a certain desire to place me into what you consider an inferior group of people.
With age comes a certain maturity and understanding. The understanding being that NOTHING is black and white
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Quoting WxGeekVA:


Whoa, UKMET really wants the Atkantic to heat up!

if you are talking about that link that is GFS
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12710
One please!
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PZ20 KNHC 131742
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED JUN 13 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 390 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE BORDER OF GUATEMALA
AND EL SALVADOR HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. THIS LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...AND DEVELOPMENT...
IF ANY...OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT
MOVES LITTLE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 131742
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED JUN 13 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 390 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE BORDER OF GUATEMALA
AND EL SALVADOR HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. THIS LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT.
..OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...AND DEVELOPMENT...
IF ANY...OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT
MOVES LITTLE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 131742
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED JUN 13 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 390 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE BORDER OF GUATEMALA
AND EL SALVADOR HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. THIS LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...AND DEVELOPMENT...
IF ANY...OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT
MOVES LITTLE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


ok I DID NOT expect this..!
is this right?
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94E stays at 60%...huh...

95E down to 10%.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32694
Quoting Stormchaser121:

Now THIS I agree with.

ok explan how this work out
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12710
Quoting AussieStorm:
I'm off to bed all. goodnight. Stay safe and enjoy your day :-)
G,nite Aussie..zzzzzz
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22263
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
My thoughts.

I was thinking the same thing.. The GFS in 228 hours and at 240 has the system moving toward Texas. I have suspected for a quite a few days that this will be a large system.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22263
I'm off to bed all. goodnight. Stay safe and enjoy your day :-)
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Chris???


Debby & Ernesto??



Check out this loop, crazy as.
Ernesto crosses Fla/GA/SC then goes up the east coast.


Whoa, UKMET really wants the Atkantic to heat up!
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Quoting Stormchaser121:

Now THIS I agree with.


Lol What is that?
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Quoting Stormchaser121:

Now THIS I agree with.

Did you see the link to the loop i posted?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Doubt it.

I say that. Meaning that we might get one storm in July but not blossoming with activity. Still we could be talking about Florence or Gordon by the beginning of August.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129

Now THIS I agree with.
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Quoting Hurricanes305:


Not necessarily, once MJO leaves later this month we might not see anything till July 10. Still not convince we will see Chris off the east coast.

That's why i said maybe, because there is still a lot of uncertainty in the forecast!
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I'll go with 80 at 2pm and TD or TS tonight


More like 70% chance at 2pm and TD 8pm tonight and TS by 5am tomorrow mourning.
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Chris???


Debby & Ernesto??



Check out this loop, crazy as.
Ernesto crosses Fla/GA/SC then goes up the east coast.
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Quoting help4u:
You would do good on this blog to remember the past!What is going on in weather has happened before ,do some research ,check it out!Nothing new under the sun!


Oh, but you are wrong.

What is new under the Sun right now is that a very large group of very resourceful animals has emerged.

For the last 100+ years this group of beasts has been digging/pumping sequestered carbon from underneath the Earth's surface and burning it into carbon dioxide which they have released into the atmosphere.

Never before, in the history of this planet, has this happened.

Just like the first atomic bomb, the first heart transplant, the first person to walk on our moon, things happen a first time.

Even the first time the Earth wandered close to the Sun to overheat itself, that was the first time. It was something "new under the sun".

Something new under the Sun is now happening. And we am it....
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

I've been on the island all week. Amazing what has. Changed post-Ike.
Just looking at mjo forecast looks like most of July will be absolutely quiet in the Atlantic.

Doubt it.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32694
Quoting nigel20:

Maybe Chris and Debby in June and Ernesto in early July!


Not necessarily, once MJO leaves later this month we might not see anything till July 10. Still not convince we will see Chris off the east coast.
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I'll go with 80 at 2pm and TD or TS tonight
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12710
Quoting Patrap:
Galveston, 4 yrs post Ike

I've been on the island all week. Amazing what has. Changed post-Ike.
Just looking at mjo forecast looks like most of July will be absolutely quiet in the Atlantic.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting tropicfreak:
Based on everyone's posts, it appears we could see Chris, Debby and Ernesto in the month of June!

Just wondering... I've got some friends down in VA Beach, what kind of impacts can they expect from potentially "Chris"

Maybe Chris and Debby in June and Ernesto in early July!
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Quoting ncstorm:
looks like the Nogaps wants to split the energy as the GFS was doing in its previous runs..one to Mexico and one to Florida



Mmmm remember that the models are overreacting to a lot of moisture and energy from the MJO which means that the monsoonal trough will create a large mess in the Caribbean one of so in order for the GOH system to develop it must cut itself from the moisture that extents westward over mexico. The moisture over Mexico head off towards Texas and the GOH system starts to organize at a better pace as it was really broad. And thus it moves off NE/ENE. Its just a theory i might add.
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Quoting bappit:

People complained about newspapers (remember them?) being filled with doom and gloom for as long as I can remember. There were even some attempts at happy news publications, but they failed. Cut to Santayana:

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it."

But then if all a certain individual wants to do is criticize then being repetitive could be a good thing.
I remember great advances in technology and medicine that have been beneficial to the human race. These are the motives and actions I would like us to repeat, whether we remember them or not.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22263
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
94E should get a higher percentage at 2PM EDT/11AM PDT. Banding is becoming more prominent and thunderstorms are beginning to fan out. The system is still under Moderate (10-20 knots) of wind shear, but this should decrease over the next day. The only thing limiting 94E's potential for rapid intensification is a lack of heat content, which lies currently lies well below the average of 75 needed to undergo rapid strengthening.



I'll go 70 - 80% at 2 pm
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Quoting bappit:

Hard to know which fires are just low-level and which ones are incipient disasters. Definitely, a build-up of fuel is bad. I guess they could do planned controlled burns and hope they don't get out of control. Or we could remove the built up fuel some other way. Or we could watch these fires do their thing, and think of the huge blazes as a lot of little blazes happening all at once. The pine beetles seem to be the kicker. They will destroy the forests whether they burn or not.


I look at all the fuel - dead small trees, broken off branches, etc. - that clogs our local forests and I wonder if there isn't a good use for that plant material.

What if we could figure out a cost effective way to pull it out and turn it into fuel? We've made progress with cellulose digestion. Would it make sense to turn it into biochar for soil improvement and use the oils that are boiled off for fuel?

There's a great video somewhere of a John Deere "walking tractor", a multi-legged beast that can move across very uneven terrain. Mount a cutter/chipper on legs and come up with an efficient way to send the chips down to a trucking point.

A swarm of these things could move through the forest reducing the fuel loads safer than fighting controlled burns that sometimes get out of control and which produce nothing but smoke and ash from the fuel consumed.

---

eta: Here's a very short clip of the walking tractor
Link
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Based on everyone's posts, it appears we could see Chris, Debby and Ernesto in the month of June!

Just wondering... I've got some friends down in VA Beach, what kind of impacts can they expect from potentially "Chris"
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GFS





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Quoting WxGeekVA:


Good interpretation. I favor more of a compromise, with it feeling the trough late and paralleling the Texas coast for a while and then landfalling near the Louisiana border.

I agree 100%!
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You would do good on this blog to remember the past!What is going on in weather has happened before ,do some research ,check it out!Nothing new under the sun!
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From the Canadian model it looks to hit somewhere around Galveston/Houston. I really do not agree with the GFS model on this one.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
My thoughts.



Good interpretation. I favor more of a compromise, with it feeling the trough late and paralleling the Texas coast for a while and then landfalling near the Louisiana border.
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Good afternoon!
Just wanted to drop a note from south Texas and let y'all know how educational I find most posts here.
Thanks!
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12z CMC


the Precip Map for the 12Z hasnt come out and the 12z only goes to 180 hours

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16215
94E should get a higher percentage at 2PM EDT/11AM PDT. Banding is becoming more prominent and thunderstorms are beginning to fan out. The system is still under Moderate (10-20 knots) of wind shear, but this should decrease over the next day. The only thing limiting 94E's potential for rapid intensification is a lack of heat content, which lies currently lies well below the average of 75 needed to undergo rapid strengthening.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32694
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

ok don't get yo is it GOH or BOC
I say development will be in the GOH as it moves around in the W caribbean


Lol its a typo. Sorry I type to fast. What I mean is most of the Lowest Pressures are in the GOH which means it will be dominant for a central low pressure thus mean everything will focus in the area with to lowest pressure which is in the GOH. In the meanwhile any lower pressure in the BOC just means the system could be broad and extents into their. Sorry, wunderkid I really should stop typing so fast.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
You're right; there is too much "gloom and doom", here and everywhere else. I think I'll just stop going on the internet; I'll cease watching TV and listening to the radio; I'll not read any more magazines or newspapers or books; I won't talk to anybody who dares to say a word about anything going on in the world today. Nope! Instead, I'll simply spend all my time just sitting back in a silent, walled-off, locked-door room, hermetically sealed from what's going on outside. Because if I can't see or hear about anything gloomy or doomy, it clearly no longer exists--and if it no longer exists, or if I only hear about it in carefully-selected words meant to not offend or scare me, it's no longer a problem! That sounds like heaven! Utopia! Nirvana! Perfection!!! ;-)

People complained about newspapers (remember them?) being filled with doom and gloom for as long as I can remember. There were even some attempts at happy news publications, but they failed. Cut to Santayana:

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it."

But then if all a certain individual wants to do is criticize then being repetitive could be a good thing.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
My thoughts.


Nice graphics...it will be interesting to see what pans out in the next week or two
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Quoting Cantu5977:


How so 0zECMWF and 0zCMC showed a similar scenario as the 12zGFS. Until we get a closed circulation the models are going to be all over the place tho.

so true models will show it all over the place till we get something going in the GOH
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12710
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
My thoughts.


ok I agree with #1 for one solution but for #2 I say low develops in the caribbean slowly meander in the area and develops further trough comes down and the system start heading NE-NNE toward Cuba florida and the Cayman Islands
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12710
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
My thoughts.



The longer it takes to develop to more it misses any trough and thus the High builds back over it however if it starts to get going a day earlier than expected and it becomes strong it will the harder it is for the High the hold it back west into Mexico and Texas and it will feel the trough and move NE.
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Comes from the Caribbean. Looks to hit TX/LA.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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