Wildfire smoke shrouds Denver; climate change expected to increase Western fires

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:16 PM GMT on June 13, 2012

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Colorado's third largest fire in recorded history, the High Park Fire, shrouded Denver and Fort Collins in acrid smoke Tuesday, causing an increase in emergency room visits related to smoke inhalation. The fire, currently burning fifteen miles west of Fort Collins, Colorado, covered over 43,000 acres (68 square miles) as of Tuesday. Firefighters reported that it was only 10% contained, and was exhibiting "extreme" behavior. A lightning strike triggered the fire on Saturday. While fire fighters try to control the southern edge of the fire, the northern perimeter is burning out of control. Six hundred eighty people and 100 fire engines are working on the ground to contain the blaze, along with air support from air tankers and helicopters. The fire has killed one person, burned 100 structures, and cost $1.6 million to fight so far. An air pollution action day has been declared for Wednesday all along the Front Range of the Rockies, from Denver to Fort Collins, due to smoke from the fire. Air pollution levels from smoke will be unhealthy for sensitive groups.


Figure 1. Fire burns in trees behind homes in the High Park wildfire near Fort Collins, Colorado, on Monday, June 11, 2012. (AP Photo)

Beetles, climate change, and Colorado fires
According to the Denver Post, the High Park Fire is burning in an area where 70% of the trees that have been killed by mountain pine beetles; the insects have devastated forests in western North America in recent years. As our climate change blogger, Dr. Ricky Rood explains, the pine beetle is killed (controlled) by temperatures less than -40°F. This is at the edge of the coldest temperatures normally seen in the U.S., and these cold extremes have largely disappeared since 1990. In Colorado, the lack of -40°F temperatures in winter has allowed the beetles to produce two broods of young per year, instead of one. The beetles are also attacking the pine trees up to a month earlier than the historic norm.


Figure 2. The historical mountain pine beetle (MPB) univoltine life cycle (above calendar arrows and linked by black arrows) and the observed MPB bivoltine life cycle (below calendar arrows and linked by red arrows). Univoltine means one brood per year, and bivoltine means two broods per year. Calendar arrow colors represent monthly temperature regimes: blue for less than 0°C, yellow for 0°-4.99°C, orange for 5°-9.99°C, and red for 10°C and higher. From Mitton and Ferrenberg, "Mountain Pine Beetle Develops an Unprecedented Summer Generation in Response to Climate Warming". This figure appeared in Dr. Ricky Rood's blog, "A Hot Day's Night: The Beetles".

A letter from the field in Colorado
Our climate change blogger, Dr. Ricky Rood, is in Boulder, Colorado this summer, and had this report on the fire Tuesday:

Saturday morning Iz and I were driving along 95th Street to Longmont to the Fairgrounds. We saw the initial plume; Iz said, "Looks like a volcano." At that time it was Colorado clear, with blue skies. The plume got to the top of its ascent and kicked off a little convection that looked like cauliflower. For the next few hours you could see the fire grow by the trunk of the plume getting thicker. It mostly blew to the east, with an occasional white cloud topping. It seemed to double in size every couple of hours.

By Sunday, the smoke was spreading all over the state. We had a couple of cool days with a northerly component in the wind. It filled up the sky, here, with haze - most of the day could not see Long's Peak. Part of the day couldn't see the foothills, say Flagstaff Mountain, which is about 8 miles away. Even with the wind moving around to the south, it's remained hazy. Today it has smelt of campfire-like smoke most of the day. Woke up sneezing. There is fine dust drawn to my computer screen and key board, which is at this point simply dirty. The dogs seem a little crazy.

It's not as acrid as the much closer Fourmile Fire a couple of years ago, but for some reason, it's the most dramatic fire I have experienced, perhaps because of the explosive nature of it. Tankers and helicopters fly over all day; they must stage from somewhere south of here. The tanks on them look hopelessly small compared with the fire, but they say, today, they finally made progress. The drought or drought potential is currently stunning, and we expect a lot of fire this year. Water only flowed in our irrigation ditch for four days before we lost priority.

There is a very nice figure in a local magazine, YS, that shows the percentage of snow pack compared with normal. We are South Platte - mid-May at 19 % normal, and not the worst in the state. Really, a nice little article in YS about how to predict a drought. Last year was nearly record wet. Right now this is setting up to be worse than the 2002 drought, which the article says was a 300 year drought. If true, then we had two 300 year droughts 10 years apart--some of our readers should be able to work on that as an attribution problem. The largest fire in Colorado history, the Hayman, was during the 2002 drought.


New Mexico's massive Whitewater Baldy Complex fire continues
The largest wildfire in New Mexico recorded history, the Whitewater Baldy Complex, continues to burn in the Gila National Forest. The lightning-sparked fire began nearly a month ago on May 15th, is 37% contained, and has devoured almost 280,000 acres (438 square miles.) Though fire weather advisories are not in effect in the region, the humidity is extremely low--humidity values of 6% were reported yesterday afternoon in Reserve, New Mexico, inside the burned area. Afternoon winds are expected to remain moderately strong, around 15 mph, over the next few days, as firefighters focus on keeping the southern edge of the fire from spreading. The fire has cost $22.6 million to fight so far.


Figure 3. The Whitewater Baldy Complex fire seen on our wundermap with the fire layer turned on. The red region outlined in yellow is the active fire perimeter.


Western U.S. wildfires expected to increase due to climate change
Expect a large increase in fires over much of the globe late this century due to climate change, says research published this month in the Journal Ecosphere. Using fire models driven by output from sixteen climate models used in the 2007 IPCC report, the researchers, led by Max Moritz of UC Berkeley, found that 38% of the planet should see increases in fire activity over the next 30 years. This figure increases to 62% by the end of the century. However, in many regions where precipitation is expected to increase--particularly in the tropics--there should be decreased fire activity. The scientists predicted that 8% of Earth will see decreases in fire probability over the next 30 years, and 20% will see decreases by the end of the century. The models do not agree on how fire danger will change for a large portion of the planet--54% for the period 2010 - 2039, and 18% for the period 2070 - 2099. Six key factors were found to control fire probabilities in the models. Most important was how much vegetation there was (NPP, Net Primary Productivity). Three other factors, about half as important, were precipitation of driest month, mean temperature of warmest month, and the difference between summer and winter temperature. Two other minor factors were mean temperature of wettest month, and annual precipitation. The authors found that future fire occurrence appears to primarily be a function of available moisture in many areas, and that the expected global increase in temperature of 3.5°C used in the models will not become the single dominant control on global wildfire. In the U.S., the regions most at risk of increased fires are the tundra regions of northern Alaska, and the West, with Arizona and Colorado at particularly high risk.


Figure 4. Predicted fractional change in fire probability for the period 2010 - 2039 (top) and 2070 - 2099 (bottom) for the average of sixteen climate models used for the 2007 IPCC report. For the 2010 - 2039 period, the models agree that 8% of Earth will see decreases in fire probability, 38% will see increases, and the models are too uncertain to tell for the other 54%. For the 2070 - 2099 period, the models agree that 20% of Earth will see decreases in fire probability, 62% will see increases, and the models are too uncertain to tell for the other 18%. Image credit: Climate change and disruptions to global fire activity, Moritz et al., 2012, from the journal Ecosphere.

Rare tornado hits Venice, Italy
A tornado hit Sant'Erasmo island in the lagoon surrounding Venice on Tuesday, ripping the roofs off of at least 12 buildings. No injuries were reported. The Capital Weather Gang has more videos and information on the event. Tornadoes are not unheard of in Venice; a strong one hit the city in 1970, killing 30 people.


Video 1. A waterspout/tornado in the Venice Lagoon on June 12, 2012.

The Atlantic is quiet
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic today. The NOGAPS and GFS models are predicting formation of a broad area of low pressure in the Western Caribbean early next week, and we will have to watch this area for development. The waters offshore of North Carolina may be another region to watch, over the next few days, along the edge of a cold front that has moved off the U.S. East Coast.

I'll have a new post Thursday or Friday.

Jeff Masters and Angela Fritz

Smokin' Hot Sun (BisonDoc)
Evening sky above the High Park Fire
Smokin' Hot Sun
Fire on the Mountain (BisonDoc)
This is the High Park Fire in Larimer County, Colorado on Day 2. The fire, first reported Saturday morning, June 9th, grew to 20,000 acres by late Sunday. More than 2,600 evacuation orders have been issued. View is looking west across Fort Collins toward the foothills above Horsetooth Reservoir.
Fire on the Mountain
Smokey Monday Sunset (MikePic)
The smoke has been nasty all along the front range, but made for a nice sunset.
Smokey Monday Sunset
High Park Wildfire (apphotos)
Fire burns through trees on the High Park wildfire near Fort Collins, Colo., on Monday, June 11, 2012. The wildfire is burning out of control in northern Colorado, while an unchecked blaze choked a small community in southern New Mexico as authorities in both regions battled fires Monday. (AP Photo/Ed Andrieski)
High Park Wildfire

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Quoting bohonkweatherman:
If El Nino develops I think it will be late in the year before it does?


Yep
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Curacao shield in action

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Quoting VAstorms:


So, are we in an el Niño or not?
If El Nino develops I think it will be late in the year before it does?
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Looks like a sub-tropical storm is in the making?.
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Quoting SouthDadeNative:
Whats the name of the resturant in Tomball thats serves a country fried steak the size of a spare tire? While working food claims for Allstate during Allison I'd eat there when I was in the area.

Goodson's?
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 131746
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1735 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 14N45W
TO 8N46W MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
WEAK SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NO
CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 20N79W TO 13N81W
MOVING WNW 10-15 KT. WAVE IS LACKING OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH ONLY
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W ALONG 8N21W TO 6N30W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N40W 6N50W TO 8N60W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-13N W OF
55W...FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 36W-43W...AND FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN
15W-24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO EXTEND NE TO SW ACROSS THE
GULF. LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT SURROUNDS THIS FEATURE ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THE LIFTING ASSOCIATED TO THIS FEATURE IS LESS
THAN IMPRESSIVE...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT OVER THE AREA. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OFF THE
ERN COAST OF TEXAS E OF 95W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT
TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA...AROUND
A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N88W. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL LINGER IN THE CENTRAL GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NE GULF LATE THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES AN
INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE SE AND SW
CORNERS OF THE BASIN ARE PARTICULARLY SATURATED. THE MONSOON
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA TO OVER PORTIONS OF PANAMA AND SRN
COSTA RICA...GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N W OF 74W. SIMILAR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS MOVING ACROSS THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE
BASIN FROM THE DEEP TROPICS...ASSOCIATED TO A STREAM OF DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ ENDING JUST S OF
TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NW BASIN
...BUT REMAINS INACTIVE AS IT TRAVELS WESTWARD WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS
UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO FRESH
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THE NW CARIBBEAN UNTIL
DISSIPATING OVER THE YUCATAN ON FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ERN CONUS SUPPORTING A
PRE FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING OFF THE COASTS OF THE CAROLINAS...
EXTENDING ALONG 31N80W TO INLAND ACROSS FLORIDA ALONG 30N81W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 30N
W OF 77W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE NW
BAHAMAS ANALYZED FROM 26N75W TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 21N78W. THIS
SYSTEM IS GENERATING SIMILAR CONVECTION FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN
70W-77W. TO THE NE OF THIS SYSTEM...A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
NEAR 30N68W KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEST ATLC UNDER FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS. A BROAD DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS OVER THE NW
ATLC SUPPORTING AN OCCLUDED 1009 MB LOW N OF THE AREA. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO OUR DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N50W TO 26N27W. SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS ARE ATTACHED TO THE
FRONT AXIS. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY LIES A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
ANALYZED FROM NEAR 31N48W TO 24N54W. SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 180 NM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS CONVECTIVE AREA
COINCIDES WITH THE STRONGEST DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SUGGESTED ON UPPER
LEVEL WIND MODEL DATA. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1027 MB HIGH SW OF
THE AZORES. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS WILL DISSIPATE
IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE W ATLC LATER
THIS EVENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA

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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
Dual lows.

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Quoting RitaEvac:


Incoming


ty rita, waters right where its going in, are 86 degree's..gas for a storm alright
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Quoting JLPR2:


According to the info I saw here in WU, Mayaguez had a record of 96F set last year, today the temp reached 98F.

The metro area isn't the only one burning up.



Yes,is all the island and that is causing many forest fires to start.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14002
Quoting Neapolitan:
NWS says Mayaguez reached at least 99 today.

For what it's worth, parts of South America are pretty toasty today, as well. For instance, Cordoba, Argentina, is at 91 degrees now. It is, of course, winter there, when the average high is in the mid 60s.


Time for averages to be thrown out....like trash, since they don't ever seem to match up with reality.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
Interesting.



With this so close to the Caribbean there won't be any developement there. What could happen is the left over circulation could make it's way somewhere in the Gulf next week.




Possible but I think the circulation will get disrupted by the Mountainous terrain of Mexico and dissipate. Some the moisture may try to organize in the BOC but it not likely as by then the caribbean system will be getting underway and become the dominant feature disrupting any competing lows.
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Quoting JLPR2:


According to the info I saw here in WU, Mayaguez had a record of 96F set last year, today the temp reached 98F.

The metro area isn't the only one burning up.

NWS says Mayaguez reached at least 99 today.

For what it's worth, parts of South America are pretty toasty today, as well. For instance, Cordoba, Argentina, is at 91 degrees now. It is, of course, winter there, when the average high is in the mid 60s.
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Quoting LargoFl:
........................iF that thing patrap has been following today reaches the gulf, waters sure are warm enough to make this interesting


Incoming


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New analysis (pdf) of climate data finds that since 1912, the United States has warmed 1.3 degrees. But that warming is concentrated in certain states, some of which have "warmed 60 times faster than the 10 slowest-warming states."

All of that is according to Climate Central, a research and journalism non-profit that seeks to inform the public about climate and energy. The center looked at data from the National Climatic Data Center's U.S. Historical Climatology Network.

The scientists found that Arizona was the fastest warming state and that much of the warming was concentrated in Southwest and upper Midwest. Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Vermont, New Mexico, Utah, Maine, Texas and Massachusetts round out the top 10.

Alabama, Arkansas and Georgia didn't warm at all during the last century.

"The Southwest and North Central and Northeastern states are clearly warming faster than the rest of the country," report author Claudia Tebaldi said in a statement. "As warming continues, future droughts could be hotter and more severe, seasons will be altered, and the risk of wildfires will increase significantly, making summers like 2011 increasingly common."


Link
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Quoting JLPR2:


According to the info I saw here in WU, Mayaguez had a record of 96F set last year, today the temp reached 98F.

The metro area isn't the only one burning up.


Wow!
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7832
........................iF that thing patrap has been following today reaches the gulf, waters sure are warm enough to make this interesting
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268. BVI
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Good afternoon Nigel.

Wow, San Juan is sizzling in hot weather since June began and today a 1997 record of 93 degrees went away at it rose to 95 degrees.

CLIMATE...A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 95 DEGREES WAS SET AT THE
LUIS MUNOZ MARIN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN SAN JUAN. THIS BROKE
THE OLD RECORD OF 93 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1997. TODAY ALSO MARKS
THE FIFTEEN CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE 90F AND THE
THIRTEEN DAY IN A ROW WITHOUT MEASURABLE RAIN.




Its been brutally hot here in the British Virgin Islands, hoping for some rain and cooler temperatures!
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267. JLPR2
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


According to the info I saw here in WU, Mayaguez had a record of 96F set last year, today the temp reached 98F.

The metro area isn't the only one burning up.

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Quoting Hurricanes305:


Some vorticity showing up on the 850 mb map in the sw Caribbean.

I know

Quoting StormTracker2K:
Interesting.



yes you didn't see it before
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Interesting.



With this so close to the Caribbean there won't be any developement there. What could happen is the left over circulation could make it's way somewhere in the Gulf next week.


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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
nhc 72 hrs forecast has low just off of Hon/Nic


Some vorticity showing up on the 850 mb map in the sw Caribbean.
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Quoting SouthDadeNative:
Whats the name of the resturant in Tomball thats serves a country fried steak the size of a spare tire? While working food claims for Allstate during Allison I'd eat there when I was in the area.


Sounds something like Kelly's

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ECMWF continues to flip-flop and will likely be the last model to catch onto major development.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Good afternoon Nigel.

Wow, San Juan is sizzling in hot weather since June began and today a 1997 record of 93 degrees went away at it rose to 95 degrees.

CLIMATE...A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 95 DEGREES WAS SET AT THE
LUIS MUNOZ MARIN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN SAN JUAN. THIS BROKE
THE OLD RECORD OF 93 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1997. TODAY ALSO MARKS
THE FIFTEEN CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE 90F AND THE
THIRTEEN DAY IN A ROW WITHOUT MEASURABLE RAIN.



Good afternoon Tropics....what's the forecast for next week, as you guys really need some relief?
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7832
259. JLPR2
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Good afternoon Nigel.

Wow, San Juan is sizzling in hot weather since June began and today a 1997 record of 93 degrees went away at it rose to 95 degrees.

CLIMATE...A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 95 DEGREES WAS SET AT THE
LUIS MUNOZ MARIN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN SAN JUAN. THIS BROKE
THE OLD RECORD OF 93 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1997. TODAY ALSO MARKS
THE FIFTEEN CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE 90F AND THE
THIRTEEN DAY IN A ROW WITHOUT MEASURABLE RAIN.




One thing I will never understand is why everyone thinks the airport is in San Juan when in reality it is in Carolina. -.- I get annoyed everytime I see San Juan next to the word airport.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
,50kts of sheer,maybe a sub tropical'low forming,starting off cold core
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OOps, I meant to say Flood claims
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Quoting jeffs713:

We got about 0.10" here in Tomball. I was actually kinda happy to see this storm pass to my east, as it was looking MEAN when it was approaching. As I was driving home last night (in the direction of the storm), I actually saw what I think was a funnel trying to drop down. It wasn't coming straight down, more of a shallow angle with the ground, and there were clouds on the near side moving down in relation to the ground, and clouds on the far side moving up in relation to the ground - and vicious crosswinds as I drove under it. That storm was definitely out to mess some stuff up.
Whats the name of the resturant in Tomball thats serves a country fried steak the size of a spare tire? While working food claims for Allstate during Allison I'd eat there when I was in the area.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
94E is struggling to consolidate


I don't think so.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31451
Good afternoon Nigel.

Wow, San Juan is sizzling in hot weather since June began and today a 1997 record of 93 degrees went away at it rose to 95 degrees.

CLIMATE...A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 95 DEGREES WAS SET AT THE
LUIS MUNOZ MARIN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN SAN JUAN. THIS BROKE
THE OLD RECORD OF 93 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1997. TODAY ALSO MARKS
THE FIFTEEN CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE 90F AND THE
THIRTEEN DAY IN A ROW WITHOUT MEASURABLE RAIN.


Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14002
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
94E is struggling to consolidate


Hey MA...is it because it's a relatively large disturbance?
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7832
Quoting ncstorm:
HPC has the low moving north towards Florida..Day 7


yes I agree with that but it will not have any such fronts atached plus I think it will have some closed isobars too
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94E is struggling to consolidate

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250. xcool
;0
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Interesting the 12z ECMWF is similar to the 00z run in terms where it takes the potential low.
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Quoting ncstorm:

I hope that model is right because i would like a texas landfall but preferrably a little further north, maybe middle texas coastline. Just wishcasting. :P
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

We'll probably see an invest out of that soon.
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Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14439
Quoting ncstorm:
HPC has the low moving north towards Florida..Day 7



GFS the last several runs except the most recent 12Z run has taken this feature up the whole eastern US. We will need to watch this trough coming in from out west to see how far south it will dig.

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We got a Low in waters..where shall it go?
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14439
Low near Virginia

Current Surface Analysis Map

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242. Tygor
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
A big fat .02 here since May 15th, going to take something tropical for South Central Texas to get any decent rain, maybe that will happen before the End of the Summer? I would even take 2 or 3 tropical waves.


And I'm actually jealous of your 0.02
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HPC has the low moving north towards Florida..Day 7

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14439
Quoting Patrap:
Holding its own heading into peak Heating..Dusk should be interesting if it makes the Shore waters.



Anything that spins in the summer months of hurricane season and is heading for warm water, must be taken with extreme notice, regardless of models, or any forecast that warrants.
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hey just looked at 94E's floater and the circulation is now moving N-NNW slowly via RGB, VIS, and shortwave floater loop
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Re the Swirl appearing to be entering the gulf, this is from 2 p.m. NHC Discussion:
GULF OF MEXICO...AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO EXTEND NE TO SW ACROSS THE GULF. LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT SURROUNDS THIS FEATURE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE LIFTING ASSOCIATED TO THIS FEATURE IS LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT OVER THE AREA. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OFF THE ERN COAST OF TEXAS E OF 95W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

A SLIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA...AROUND A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N88W. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LINGER IN THE CENTRAL GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NE GULF LATE THURSDAY.





Link
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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31451
Weak low in GOH at 168hrs on Euro. Also on this run is a significant trough knifing into the Midwest.

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Can`t wait to see if the Southeast/Northeast storm is going to form in the next two to three days.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.