Wildfire smoke shrouds Denver; climate change expected to increase Western fires

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:16 PM GMT on June 13, 2012

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Colorado's third largest fire in recorded history, the High Park Fire, shrouded Denver and Fort Collins in acrid smoke Tuesday, causing an increase in emergency room visits related to smoke inhalation. The fire, currently burning fifteen miles west of Fort Collins, Colorado, covered over 43,000 acres (68 square miles) as of Tuesday. Firefighters reported that it was only 10% contained, and was exhibiting "extreme" behavior. A lightning strike triggered the fire on Saturday. While fire fighters try to control the southern edge of the fire, the northern perimeter is burning out of control. Six hundred eighty people and 100 fire engines are working on the ground to contain the blaze, along with air support from air tankers and helicopters. The fire has killed one person, burned 100 structures, and cost $1.6 million to fight so far. An air pollution action day has been declared for Wednesday all along the Front Range of the Rockies, from Denver to Fort Collins, due to smoke from the fire. Air pollution levels from smoke will be unhealthy for sensitive groups.


Figure 1. Fire burns in trees behind homes in the High Park wildfire near Fort Collins, Colorado, on Monday, June 11, 2012. (AP Photo)

Beetles, climate change, and Colorado fires
According to the Denver Post, the High Park Fire is burning in an area where 70% of the trees that have been killed by mountain pine beetles; the insects have devastated forests in western North America in recent years. As our climate change blogger, Dr. Ricky Rood explains, the pine beetle is killed (controlled) by temperatures less than -40°F. This is at the edge of the coldest temperatures normally seen in the U.S., and these cold extremes have largely disappeared since 1990. In Colorado, the lack of -40°F temperatures in winter has allowed the beetles to produce two broods of young per year, instead of one. The beetles are also attacking the pine trees up to a month earlier than the historic norm.


Figure 2. The historical mountain pine beetle (MPB) univoltine life cycle (above calendar arrows and linked by black arrows) and the observed MPB bivoltine life cycle (below calendar arrows and linked by red arrows). Univoltine means one brood per year, and bivoltine means two broods per year. Calendar arrow colors represent monthly temperature regimes: blue for less than 0°C, yellow for 0°-4.99°C, orange for 5°-9.99°C, and red for 10°C and higher. From Mitton and Ferrenberg, "Mountain Pine Beetle Develops an Unprecedented Summer Generation in Response to Climate Warming". This figure appeared in Dr. Ricky Rood's blog, "A Hot Day's Night: The Beetles".

A letter from the field in Colorado
Our climate change blogger, Dr. Ricky Rood, is in Boulder, Colorado this summer, and had this report on the fire Tuesday:

Saturday morning Iz and I were driving along 95th Street to Longmont to the Fairgrounds. We saw the initial plume; Iz said, "Looks like a volcano." At that time it was Colorado clear, with blue skies. The plume got to the top of its ascent and kicked off a little convection that looked like cauliflower. For the next few hours you could see the fire grow by the trunk of the plume getting thicker. It mostly blew to the east, with an occasional white cloud topping. It seemed to double in size every couple of hours.

By Sunday, the smoke was spreading all over the state. We had a couple of cool days with a northerly component in the wind. It filled up the sky, here, with haze - most of the day could not see Long's Peak. Part of the day couldn't see the foothills, say Flagstaff Mountain, which is about 8 miles away. Even with the wind moving around to the south, it's remained hazy. Today it has smelt of campfire-like smoke most of the day. Woke up sneezing. There is fine dust drawn to my computer screen and key board, which is at this point simply dirty. The dogs seem a little crazy.

It's not as acrid as the much closer Fourmile Fire a couple of years ago, but for some reason, it's the most dramatic fire I have experienced, perhaps because of the explosive nature of it. Tankers and helicopters fly over all day; they must stage from somewhere south of here. The tanks on them look hopelessly small compared with the fire, but they say, today, they finally made progress. The drought or drought potential is currently stunning, and we expect a lot of fire this year. Water only flowed in our irrigation ditch for four days before we lost priority.

There is a very nice figure in a local magazine, YS, that shows the percentage of snow pack compared with normal. We are South Platte - mid-May at 19 % normal, and not the worst in the state. Really, a nice little article in YS about how to predict a drought. Last year was nearly record wet. Right now this is setting up to be worse than the 2002 drought, which the article says was a 300 year drought. If true, then we had two 300 year droughts 10 years apart--some of our readers should be able to work on that as an attribution problem. The largest fire in Colorado history, the Hayman, was during the 2002 drought.


New Mexico's massive Whitewater Baldy Complex fire continues
The largest wildfire in New Mexico recorded history, the Whitewater Baldy Complex, continues to burn in the Gila National Forest. The lightning-sparked fire began nearly a month ago on May 15th, is 37% contained, and has devoured almost 280,000 acres (438 square miles.) Though fire weather advisories are not in effect in the region, the humidity is extremely low--humidity values of 6% were reported yesterday afternoon in Reserve, New Mexico, inside the burned area. Afternoon winds are expected to remain moderately strong, around 15 mph, over the next few days, as firefighters focus on keeping the southern edge of the fire from spreading. The fire has cost $22.6 million to fight so far.


Figure 3. The Whitewater Baldy Complex fire seen on our wundermap with the fire layer turned on. The red region outlined in yellow is the active fire perimeter.


Western U.S. wildfires expected to increase due to climate change
Expect a large increase in fires over much of the globe late this century due to climate change, says research published this month in the Journal Ecosphere. Using fire models driven by output from sixteen climate models used in the 2007 IPCC report, the researchers, led by Max Moritz of UC Berkeley, found that 38% of the planet should see increases in fire activity over the next 30 years. This figure increases to 62% by the end of the century. However, in many regions where precipitation is expected to increase--particularly in the tropics--there should be decreased fire activity. The scientists predicted that 8% of Earth will see decreases in fire probability over the next 30 years, and 20% will see decreases by the end of the century. The models do not agree on how fire danger will change for a large portion of the planet--54% for the period 2010 - 2039, and 18% for the period 2070 - 2099. Six key factors were found to control fire probabilities in the models. Most important was how much vegetation there was (NPP, Net Primary Productivity). Three other factors, about half as important, were precipitation of driest month, mean temperature of warmest month, and the difference between summer and winter temperature. Two other minor factors were mean temperature of wettest month, and annual precipitation. The authors found that future fire occurrence appears to primarily be a function of available moisture in many areas, and that the expected global increase in temperature of 3.5°C used in the models will not become the single dominant control on global wildfire. In the U.S., the regions most at risk of increased fires are the tundra regions of northern Alaska, and the West, with Arizona and Colorado at particularly high risk.


Figure 4. Predicted fractional change in fire probability for the period 2010 - 2039 (top) and 2070 - 2099 (bottom) for the average of sixteen climate models used for the 2007 IPCC report. For the 2010 - 2039 period, the models agree that 8% of Earth will see decreases in fire probability, 38% will see increases, and the models are too uncertain to tell for the other 54%. For the 2070 - 2099 period, the models agree that 20% of Earth will see decreases in fire probability, 62% will see increases, and the models are too uncertain to tell for the other 18%. Image credit: Climate change and disruptions to global fire activity, Moritz et al., 2012, from the journal Ecosphere.

Rare tornado hits Venice, Italy
A tornado hit Sant'Erasmo island in the lagoon surrounding Venice on Tuesday, ripping the roofs off of at least 12 buildings. No injuries were reported. The Capital Weather Gang has more videos and information on the event. Tornadoes are not unheard of in Venice; a strong one hit the city in 1970, killing 30 people.


Video 1. A waterspout/tornado in the Venice Lagoon on June 12, 2012.

The Atlantic is quiet
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic today. The NOGAPS and GFS models are predicting formation of a broad area of low pressure in the Western Caribbean early next week, and we will have to watch this area for development. The waters offshore of North Carolina may be another region to watch, over the next few days, along the edge of a cold front that has moved off the U.S. East Coast.

I'll have a new post Thursday or Friday.

Jeff Masters and Angela Fritz

Smokin' Hot Sun (BisonDoc)
Evening sky above the High Park Fire
Smokin' Hot Sun
Fire on the Mountain (BisonDoc)
This is the High Park Fire in Larimer County, Colorado on Day 2. The fire, first reported Saturday morning, June 9th, grew to 20,000 acres by late Sunday. More than 2,600 evacuation orders have been issued. View is looking west across Fort Collins toward the foothills above Horsetooth Reservoir.
Fire on the Mountain
Smokey Monday Sunset (MikePic)
The smoke has been nasty all along the front range, but made for a nice sunset.
Smokey Monday Sunset
High Park Wildfire (apphotos)
Fire burns through trees on the High Park wildfire near Fort Collins, Colo., on Monday, June 11, 2012. The wildfire is burning out of control in northern Colorado, while an unchecked blaze choked a small community in southern New Mexico as authorities in both regions battled fires Monday. (AP Photo/Ed Andrieski)
High Park Wildfire

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Quoting hurricaneben:
POLL: How strong will 94E be at peak?
a)TD
b)TS
c)Hurricane
d)Major Hurricane
e)None of these.

C.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31882
Seems that the east coast low is trying to get going.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
A TROPICAL STORM
OR HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO BY THURSDAY MORNING.

And the plot thickens...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15104
POLL: How strong will 94E be at peak?
a)TD
b)TS
c)Hurricane
d)Major Hurricane
e)None of these.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 132337
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED JUN 13 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 360 MILES SOUTH OF THE BORDER OF MEXICO AND GUATEMALA
HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS
SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR THURSDAY
AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE. A TROPICAL STORM
OR HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO BY THURSDAY MORNING.

A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES LITTLE.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
As far as I am concerned, if we get any development in the GOM in the next couple weeks it had better either be a direct or grazing hit of the Texas gulf coast, or somewhere else entirely.

Last time something went into Louisiana (Lee), it sucked all the moisture out of the air over Texas and lit up half the state.

Yuck.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
A TROPICAL STORM
OR HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO BY THURSDAY MORNING.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31882
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 132337
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED JUN 13 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 360 MILES SOUTH OF THE BORDER OF MEXICO AND GUATEMALA
HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS
SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR THURSDAY
AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE. A TROPICAL STORM
OR HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO BY THURSDAY MORNING.


A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES LITTLE.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 573 Comments: 20371
I stand corrected. It is all the way up to 90%.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31882
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


none.


Keep guessing
Member Since: April 21, 2012 Posts: 4 Comments: 298
WPB!!:)
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Just a heads up to those in Martin and PBC in SEFL. Storms heading down from the north.


Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4463
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm going to say that 94E remains at 60% on the next TWO.


What kind of question is that and how does it have ANYTHING to do with weather?


Your reliable!
Member Since: April 21, 2012 Posts: 4 Comments: 298
Quoting TAMPASHIELD:
I'll send everyone a pair of lemon lollipops, if you guess right how many fingers are attached to my hand.


none.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm going to say that 94E remains at 60% on the next TWO.

Quoting TAMPASHIELD:
I'll send everyone a pair of lemon lollipops, if you guess right how many fingers are attached to my hand.

What kind of question is that and how does it have ANYTHING to do with weather?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31882
The world going through a major power outage?
Echo echo echo echo....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Nothing yet for Atlantic.


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just a heads up to those in Martin and PBC in SEFL. Storms heading down from the north.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'll send everyone a pair of lemon lollipops, if you guess right how many fingers are attached to my hand.
Member Since: April 21, 2012 Posts: 4 Comments: 298
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Right around 7 everyone leaves for the night, pretty much.
Blogger hours 6 AM - 7 PM with lunch break included of coarse :)

Night shifts are available ;D
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

agree I say W Carib system forms up in the GOH moves off to the NNE-ENE towards Cuba S Florida and the Cayman Islands

Ha you sure do gt excited with these Caribbean systems, don't ya?
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Where'd everyone go?.

Right around 7 everyone leaves for the night, pretty much.
Blogger hours 6 AM - 7 PM with lunch break included of coarse :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Does Dr Masters like gardening?

Member Since: April 21, 2012 Posts: 4 Comments: 298
462. MTWX
Quoting tornadodude:


Lol well yeah, that's a given. But, that's also part of the risk. Typically, between April and June there are tornadoes somewhere, almost every other day. And, if you have the right people in charge, it is very feasible to get there and see the tornadoes. That's part of the deal, they would drive wherever the tornadoes are, not just be confined to Traditional Tornado Alley.


Which service are you looking at using?
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Quoting tornadodude:


haha no doubt, I love it, and I am more than happy to share it :P

Thanks for your feedback everyone


Better watch making it too affordable. It's all good till ya get 500 envelopes in the mail with $1,200 bucks in it, lol. That's all you need to be doing is driving around a few Greyhound's chasing a Tornado.
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Where'd everyone go?.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I'll force you to look at them though... 18z GFS 174 hours


Ah! It burns!
:P
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Evening Everybody.
Well that blog heading took some reading. I personally don't think that the figures are going to be too accurate as the rainfall, not so much falls in quantity but increases in recorded amounts in short term downpours, intense storms like the ones that have been troubling Florida last week.
The reality of the matter is that if the winters are warmer and dryer the chances of "spring fires," rears its unprecedented head. The vegetation should be green, not brown and tinder dry!
Fires in temperate areas with Mediterranean climates normally have been summer, fall events. I am in a Mediterranean climate area with about a thousand miles of the Mediterranean coast just south of here and we are getting a lot of spring fires now and last year, I can assure you that if you have bone dry grass, 4 foot high, endless sun and 40MPH easterly dry winds, dry storms with lightning strikes and of course people having countryside picnics and throwing cigarette ends out of car windows on the way to Their parties,( as we saw today,) Its amazing that the planet in our area isn't allready a charred husk but then again its only June.
Different sub line!
You cant help but pulse this line from Xyrus on the last blog!

"No amount of legislation will change reality."
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Quoting severstorm:
well it dosent rain all day down here MOST of the time. There are lots of good beaches down here. Just go in the late morning early afternoon. You should be fine. by the way whIat parts of FL?


My son lives in Navarre, near Fort Walton Beach. We love the beach in Navarre. Beaches are more for my daughter than I. We usually go to the beach early to mid morning when there's not many people there. I think I am a rain magnet for there. It always rains when I go. *G*
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3115
Quoting severstorm:
I agree... Then more people with lesser amounts of cash flow could go. It really is an awesome site to see and i know you know that. lol


haha no doubt, I love it, and I am more than happy to share it :P

Thanks for your feedback everyone
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Lol. At least Corpus mentions it. Lake Charles is just not impressed at all. :)

Corpus Christy

FOR NOW...EXPECT POPS TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE CWA BY WED GIVEN THE INFLUX OF DEEPER MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF/WESTERN CARIBBEAN RGN. NOT QUITE AS
CONFIDENT TO GO WITH CHC POPS JUST YET GIVEN THAT IT IS THE LAST DAY
OF THE FCST PD. ALSO...OBVIOUSLY WAY TOO EARLY TO GET "CUTE" WITH
ANY SFC CIRCULATION THAT THE MODELS THROW OUR WAY GIVEN THE HUGE
UNCERTAINTIES THAT ARE NORMALLY OBSERVED AT THIS FAR OUT IN THE
FCST


Hooray! Forecasters with snark! Or else they're just very bored.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tornadodude:


Basically, this is all just ideas. Im going to school for business management. And I am mulling over ideas. I think it is very feasible to offer a cheaper chase tour service.

Anyway, any other questions, feel free to PM me, I will gladly answer.
I agree... Then more people with lesser amounts of cash flow could go. It really is an awesome site to see and i know you know that. lol
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Quoting aislinnpaps:


Would, but I'm teaching then and my son will be deployed again. I may just go back again.
well it dosent rain all day down here MOST of the time. There are lots of good beaches down here. Just go in the late morning early afternoon. You should be fine. by the way what parts of FL?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Lol. At least Corpus mentions it. Lake Charles is just not impressed at all. :)

Corpus Christy

FOR NOW...EXPECT POPS TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE CWA BY WED GIVEN THE INFLUX OF DEEPER MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF/WESTERN CARIBBEAN RGN. NOT QUITE AS
CONFIDENT TO GO WITH CHC POPS JUST YET GIVEN THAT IT IS THE LAST DAY
OF THE FCST PD. ALSO...OBVIOUSLY WAY TOO EARLY TO GET "CUTE" WITH
ANY SFC CIRCULATION THAT THE MODELS THROW OUR WAY GIVEN THE HUGE
UNCERTAINTIES THAT ARE NORMALLY OBSERVED AT THIS FAR OUT IN THE
FCST
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 60
Quoting bluheelrtx:
What kind of safety and liability assurances do you provide?


Basically, this is all just ideas. Im going to school for business management. And I am mulling over ideas. I think it is very feasible to offer a cheaper chase tour service.

Anyway, any other questions, feel free to PM me, I will gladly answer.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
The 18z GFS and the 06z GFS is generally the less accurate of the 4 GFS runs, while the 12z and 00z are the more accurate.


Quoting washingtonian115:
I was referring to the Euro.


Lol, the Euro overestimate the high as well.
Member Since: May 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2043
Quoting Hurricanes305:


Wow look at those competing lows wonder which will become dominant.


I think that's what will take any system a while to develop.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 60
Quoting severstorm:
come in feb,mar or apr nowhere near the rain if you want to go to the beach.


Would, but I'm teaching then and my son will be deployed again. I may just go back again.
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3115
The 18z GFS and the 06z GFS is generally the less accurate of the 4 GFS runs, while the 12z and 00z are the more accurate.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
There are a lot of folks that do not know about ozone and its effect on living organisms..They have an air Quality Alert in effect for Nashville and surrounding counties. It does an excellent job way up high in the atmosphere absorbing dangerous radiation, but really nasty stuff when it is down here at the surface.Wiki..Ozone cracking in natural rubber tubing from ozone.Ground-level ozone is created near the Earth's surface by the action of daylight UV rays on a group of pollutants called ozone precursors. There is a great deal of evidence to show that ground level ozone can harm lung function and irritate the respiratory system. Exposure to ozone and the pollutants that produce it is linked to premature death, asthma, bronchitis, heart attack, and other cardiopulmonary problems.

Long-term exposure to ozone has been shown to increase risk of death from respiratory illness. A study of 450,000 people living in United States cities showed a significant correlation between ozone levels and respiratory illness over the 18-year follow-up period. The study revealed that people living in cities with high ozone levels such as Houston or Los Angeles had an over 30% increased risk of dying from lung disease.

Air quality guidelines such as those from the World Health Organization, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the European Union are based on detailed studies designed to identify the levels that can cause measurable ill health effects.

According to scientists with the EPA, susceptible people can be adversely affected by ozone levels as low as 40 nmol/mol.
In the EU, the current target value for ozone concentrations is 120 %uFFFDg/m%uFFFD which is about 60 nmol/mol. This target applies to all member states in accordance with Directive 2008/50/EC. Ozone concentration is measured as a maximum daily mean of 8 hour averages and the target should not be exceeded on more than 25 calendar days per year, starting from January 2010. Whilst the directive requires in the future a strict compliance with 120 %uFFFDg/m%uFFFD limit (i.e. mean ozone concentration not to be exceeded on any day of the year), there is no date set for this requirement and this is treated as a long-term objective. "Even very low concentrations of ozone can be harmful to the upper respiratory tract and the lungs. The severity of injury depends on both by the concentration of ozone and the duration of exposure. Severe and permanent lung injury or death could result from even a very short-term exposure to relatively low concentrations."
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

agree I say W Carib system forms up in the GOH moves off to the NNE-ENE towards Cuba S Florida and the Cayman Islands


Hey wunderkid, what other models still supports that.
Member Since: May 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2043
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
I don't really feel like even looking at the models today, I expect to see about the same as yesterday.

agree I say W Carib system forms up in the GOH moves off to the NNE-ENE towards Cuba S Florida and the Cayman Islands
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11719
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
240 hours... TD/weak TS makes landfall in New Orleans



Dang it. Too slow as usual. Lol. Not as much competition at the 00z runs.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 60
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
GFS thinks about closing the GOM blob off :)



Wow look at those competing lows wonder which will become dominant.
Member Since: May 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2043
Quoting tornadodude:
Hey all, hope everyone is doing alright


I have a poll question (I know, I know) haha

Would you consider $1,200 for a 10 day storm chase tour across the Great Plains a good deal? This includes all gas, hotels, and some snacks. Also included is a copy of the DVD from the chase trip.

A. Yes
B. No
C. Other
What kind of safety and liability assurances do you provide?
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So the new policy states that a crossover between the Pacific and Atlantic retains its name?

Lame. I liked the old idea of a storm with two names.
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Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 60
240 hours... TD/weak TS makes landfall in New Orleans

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7735
Quoting aislinnpaps:
I had a wonderful time visiting my son in Florida, though it rained almost the entire time I was there. Did get to have a wonderful seafood dinner before I left. Drove home through more pouring rain. I may go back to Florida so I can enjoy the beach a little.
come in feb,mar or apr nowhere near the rain if you want to go to the beach.
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Quoting allancalderini:
Me too.


And how much it would cost. I work for a hospitality and entertainment establishment recently mentioned in this blog, and they serve $70 specialty steaks alone. Since this is so rare, there has to be a pretty penny on that one. Doubt it will end up at a Red Lobster. Lol
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Quoting tornadodude:
Hey all, hope everyone is doing alright


I have a poll question (I know, I know) haha

Would you consider $1,200 for a 10 day storm chase tour across the Great Plains a good deal? This includes all gas, hotels, and some snacks. Also included is a copy of the DVD from the chase trip.

A. Yes
B. No
C. Other

433. hydrus 10:33 PM GMT on June 13, 2012 +0

Quoting severstorm:
A Sounds like a good deal to me.

Absolutely..If fact it sounds a little to reasonable. A ten day anything usually costs a lot more than twelve hundred dollars.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.