Damaging rains bust the drought in portions of Florida Panhandle

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on June 11, 2012

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Flood waters are receding in the rain-drenched Florida Panhandle and coastal Alabama today, where prodigious rains from a moist, tropical airmass interacting with a stalled front brought flooding that caused at least $20 million in damage to the Pensacola, Florida area. The most remarkable rains fell in West Pensacola, where 21.70" was recorded over the weekend. Pensacola airport received 13.13 inches of rain on Saturday, the city's second-highest 1-day rainfall total in recorded history. The only greater 1-day rainfall occurred on October 5, 1934, when Tropical Storm Nine brought 15.29" of rain to the city. Satellite loops of atmospheric precipitable water show that this weekend's heavy rains were caused by a flow of very moist tropical air that originated over the warm waters of the tropical Eastern Pacific and flowed northwards across Mexico and Central America to the Panhandle of Florida. This moist airmass has been replaced by relatively dry air over the Gulf, which should limit rainfall amounts today to the 1 - 2 inch range. A cold front expected to arrive on Tuesday will serve as the focus to bring additional rains of 1 - 2 inches per day to portions of the region Tuesday and Wednesday. Before this weekend's mighty rainstorm, the Florida Panhandle was experiencing severe to extreme drought, with 12 - 15 inches of rain needed to pull the region out of drought. This weekend's rains have busted the drought the extreme western Panhandle, but surrounding regions of Alabama, Georgia, and Florida still need 10+ inches of rain.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall for the Florida Panhandle from this weekend's rain storm.


Figure 2. Amount of precipitation needed to bust drought conditions over the U.S., as of June 2, 2012. A Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDI) of -0.5 is considered the boundary of where a drought exists. The 12 - 15 inches of rain that fell across the extreme western Florida Panhandle and coastal Alabama over the weekend were enough to bust the drought in those regions. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Some rainfall amounts from the storm, from 7 pm CDT Thu June 7, through 3 am CDT Sunday June 10, from the latest NOAA Storm Summary:

...ALABAMA...
TILLMANS CORNER 4.3 WNW 10.77"
GRAND BAY 0.6 NW 10.03"
MOBILE DOWNTOWN ARPT 8.97"

...FLORIDA...
WEST PENSACOLA 10.9 SW 21.70"
PENSACOLA RGNL ARPT 15.08"
MILTON 10.9 SSW 14.42"
PENSACOLA 3.8 N 13.88"
JACKSONVILLE 11.6 ENE 4.31"

...GEORGIA...
AUGUSTA/DANIEL FIELD 4.08"
WARNER ROBINS AFB 1.95"
VALDOSTA RGNL ARPT 1.50"

...LOUISIANA...
PONCHATOULA 11.8 E 5.64"
SLIDELL 4.29"
LACOMBE 1.4 N 3.73"
BATON ROUGE 2.5 E 2.26"
NEW ORLEANS/LAKEFRONT 2.13"

...MISSISSIPPI...
PASCAGOULA 7.50"
GULFPORT-BILOXI 6.52"
PASS CHRISTIAN 3.5 NE 4.69"

The Atlantic is quiet
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic today. The NOGAPS model is predicting formation of a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical depression in the Western Caribbean by Sunday, but none of the other models is going along with this idea. We could get something developing in the waters offshore of North Carolina late this week, along the edge of a cold front expected to move of the U.S. East Coast on Tuesday - Wednesday. The GFS model has suggested something could develop in this region in several of its recent runs.

Jeff Masters

flood (megulfbreeze)
Out the front window as our house flooded
flood
Flash (mobal)
I decided to turn around
Flash

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K-man calm down now...I'm not exactly sure where the GFS is getting that mess from that forms over the Bahamas.I'm still going with two possible storms.Or I'll eat crow.I know that at least 1 coming out of the MJO pulse is certain.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16979
451. CybrTeddy
11:28 PM GMT on June 11, 2012
Quoting rmjoeb1954:


nogaps has tampa hit.


NOGAPS is no longer considered a reliable global model from last I heard.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24035
450. KoritheMan
11:27 PM GMT on June 11, 2012

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Kori, I have no desire to write blogs anymore. Do you see how badly I blew 93E's forecast? Lol.
Dude, I've blown many forecasts. Just the name of the game. I look at each failure as a learning experience. You should too.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 576 Comments: 20609
448. KoritheMan
11:26 PM GMT on June 11, 2012

Quoting CybrTeddy:

Odds are we'll only see one tropical cyclone, though it is not out the questions but unlikely that we will see a second.
All I've been saying. Thank you.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 576 Comments: 20609
447. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:25 PM GMT on June 11, 2012
Kori, I have no desire to write blogs anymore. Do you see how badly I blew 93E's forecast? Lol.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32072
446. CybrTeddy
11:25 PM GMT on June 11, 2012
Another thing, the only thing that the models are showing consensus on is the possible Sub-Tropical East Coast storm.. the GFS is the only one that spins up the Bahamas mess, but if it starts being consistent as it is in a relatively closer range we might have to watch it, the ECMWF although accurate is still 240 hours out, very weak and more than likely will drop during the 00z and has no model support either.

This is all to be expected as the models react to the upward MJO coming through. Odds are we'll only see one tropical cyclone, though it is not out the questions but unlikely that we will see a second.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24035
445. Patrap
11:24 PM GMT on June 11, 2012
Caribbean - Rainbow Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
444. WxGeekVA
11:24 PM GMT on June 11, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan:
Why are we fantasizing over the GFS? I realize we're bored, but we are NOT going to see three storms before the conclusion of June.


Agree. Here's my two cents on that theory:

Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3471
443. Tropicsweatherpr
11:22 PM GMT on June 11, 2012
Quoting Patrap:




Looks juicy north and south of Panama.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14270
442. KoritheMan
11:20 PM GMT on June 11, 2012
I seriously cannot recall a single hurricane season since I've been on this site where people weren't going gung-ho about a single cycle, or day, of model runs. It's important not to give into that. I want tropical development as the next guy, and would honestly love to see three named storms in June. But all bets are that it doesn't happen.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 576 Comments: 20609
441. Stormchaser121
11:20 PM GMT on June 11, 2012

This is gonna be something...im telling you!
Member Since: September 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1148
440. washingtonian115
11:19 PM GMT on June 11, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan:

Sure, I'll give you those two systems. I still haven't given up on either of them, because they're within a reasonable timeframe. This final system everyone's talking about, whatever it is, is too far out to garner my attention.
K-man I'm going to agree that Chris and Debby are possible..Because if that storm that is suppose to form off of the caost this weekend becomes Chris then the Caribbean/BOC system should become Debby.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16979
439. HurricaneDean07
11:19 PM GMT on June 11, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:

I just think the strong MJO is throwing them off and they don't know how to handle all that energy.

Models = Truck driver
Strong MJO Pulse = Booze, Liquor, and Beer

Models Strong MJO = Very drunk driver

:P Good analogy right?
Alright, I'll be back later.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
438. GeoffreyWPB
11:18 PM GMT on June 11, 2012
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11159
437. KoritheMan
11:18 PM GMT on June 11, 2012

Quoting rmjoeb1954:

man of reason, or just crapped the punch bowl?? me tinks the latter...
I'm always like this. ;)
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 576 Comments: 20609
436. Patrap
11:18 PM GMT on June 11, 2012


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
435. CybrTeddy
11:17 PM GMT on June 11, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan:
Why are we fantasizing over the GFS? I realize we're bored, but we are NOT going to see three storms before the conclusion of June.


Well, obviously not but there is a good potential for Chris from any of these areas as soon as this week starting off the US East Coast, and the GFS has also been recently portraying the potential for a cyclone to develop in the Bahamas by 180 hours from the Caribbean mess, so they're not all in deep fantasy land so to say, just long range. The last one being portrayed is and is unlikely to happen, and will be gone during the 00z GFS.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24035
433. Hurricanes101
11:17 PM GMT on June 11, 2012
Quoting ncstorm:


Nope..

Euro
CMC
Nogaps
UkMet
GFS--it had an upgrade and is still performing poorly


You are seriously smoking something if you think the Ukmet and Nogaps are better than the GFS

that must be strong stuff you are using, can I have some? lol
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7726
432. KoritheMan
11:16 PM GMT on June 11, 2012

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You cannot just blatantly state things like that, Kori. There's a good possibility we get a system off the East Coast in 3-4 days time and then a Caribbean system next week.

Who knows what happens at the end of June?
Sure, I'll give you those two systems. I still haven't given up on either of them, because they're within a reasonable timeframe. This final system everyone's talking about, whatever it is, is too far out to garner my attention.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 576 Comments: 20609
430. HurricaneDean07
11:16 PM GMT on June 11, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan:
Why are we fantasizing over the GFS? I realize we're bored, but we are NOT going to see three storms before the conclusion of June.

I agree.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
429. washingtonian115
11:16 PM GMT on June 11, 2012
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

The models are like a drunk driver. They swurve back and forth and until the storm actually forms, The models that develop the caribbean system into chris, don't develop anything else, and those that develop the Southeast coastal low(*cough* The Canadian and Euro) barely do anything with the Caribbean system, though the Euro is been in and out on the development of it.
As of right now There's a great chance to get Chris, a Somewhat decent chance to get Debby on top of it, and a incredibly Tiny chance to get Ernesto in this forecasting cycle (Next 10 days).

I just think the strong MJO is throwing them off and they don't know how to handle all that energy.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16979
427. KoritheMan
11:15 PM GMT on June 11, 2012

Quoting washingtonian115:
How you know K-man.
Because there is no literally no reason to think that we will. The forecast MJO doesn't scream "Chris, Debby, AND Ernesto" to me.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 576 Comments: 20609
426. HurricaneDean07
11:14 PM GMT on June 11, 2012
Quoting ncstorm:
Here's my thinking which aint much..

Chris on the east coast
Debby in the West Caribbean
and Ernesto from the tropical wave by the Antilles..


When do the models form that?
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
425. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:14 PM GMT on June 11, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan:
Why are we fantasizing over the GFS? I realize we're bored, but we are NOT going to see three storms before the conclusion of June.

You cannot just blatantly state things like that, Kori. There's a good possibility we get a system off the East Coast in 3-4 days time and then a Caribbean system next week.

Who knows what happens at the end of June?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32072
424. txjac
11:14 PM GMT on June 11, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan:
Why are we fantasizing over the GFS? I realize we're bored, but we are NOT going to see three storms before the conclusion of June.


Party-pooper ...lol
I think that we are all dreaming at the excitement on the blog if that panned out
Member Since: April 24, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 2526
423. HurricaneDean07
11:14 PM GMT on June 11, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
So could we get Chris Debby and Ernesto?.Or are the models going nuts because it'll be a strong MJO and don't know what to do with all the energy.Hmmmm.

The models are like a drunk driver. They swurve back and forth and until the storm actually forms, The models that develop the caribbean system into chris, don't develop anything else, and those that develop the Southeast coastal low(*cough* The Canadian and Euro) barely do anything with the Caribbean system, though the Euro is been in and out on the development of it.
As of right now There's a great chance to get Chris, a Somewhat decent chance to get Debby on top of it, and a incredibly Tiny chance to get Ernesto in this forecasting cycle (Next 10 days).
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
422. washingtonian115
11:14 PM GMT on June 11, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan:
Why are we fantasizing over the GFS? I realize we're bored, but we are NOT going to see three storms before the conclusion of June.
How you know K-man.This season is strange so I wouldn't count out anything.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16979
420. KoritheMan
11:13 PM GMT on June 11, 2012
Why are we fantasizing over the GFS? I realize we're bored, but we are NOT going to see three storms before the conclusion of June.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 576 Comments: 20609
419. ncstorm
11:10 PM GMT on June 11, 2012
Ill be back later..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15302
417. redwagon
11:10 PM GMT on June 11, 2012
Quoting rmjoeb1954:


you forgot water you pasture, fill your reserviour back up, give hope to your pine plantation...

I'm from Texas but I'm not holding hands, lighting candles or singing kumbaya for something that may damage my home, kill my cattle and flood my property.

All sorcery and jokery aside, Central Texas is the one region that has been shut out of all the serious rain we need that our Northern, Western, Eastern and Southern neighbors have been blessed with, and as reservoir to millions of people, we need out of this dry slot.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3255
415. Patrap
11:09 PM GMT on June 11, 2012
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
414. washingtonian115
11:08 PM GMT on June 11, 2012
If we do get Chris Debby and Ernesto then their would not be any reason to not stick with my original forecast of 15 named storms.Where has teddy gone?.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16979
413. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
11:08 PM GMT on June 11, 2012
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05
6:00 AM JST June 12 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Caroline Islands

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 9.5N 144.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 10.0N 140.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Yap

Tiyan, Guam NWS
===============

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR FAIS AND ULITHI IN YAP STATE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR YAP
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
411. CosmicEvents
11:07 PM GMT on June 11, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
Whats so great about Fresca and hurricanes going together?.
I believe it's an attempt at humor. Hard to tell though.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5590
409. ncstorm
11:05 PM GMT on June 11, 2012
Here's my thinking which aint much..

Chris on the east coast
Debby in the West Caribbean
and Ernesto from the tropical wave by the Antilles..

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15302
407. washingtonian115
11:03 PM GMT on June 11, 2012
Whats so great about Fresca and hurricanes going together?.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16979
406. ncstorm
11:03 PM GMT on June 11, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
So could we get Chris Debby and Ernesto?.Or are the models going nuts because it'll be a strong MJO and don't know what to do with all the energy.Hmmmm.


It could happen..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15302
403. Patrap
11:01 PM GMT on June 11, 2012
Quoting redwagon:

Yeah, see? Patrap gets it because we Texans didn't throw the bones right, once again.



Best check up on the Fresca stock..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
402. ncstorm
11:00 PM GMT on June 11, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

It doesn't matter... 2010 is only 2 years ago (One really since the full 2012 season hasn't happened yet) and nothing has changed with the model skill levels.


so far this season I believe the Nogaps has been performing better than the GFS..and again I might be wrong and it could have been the CMC but she posted it right after Beryl..right now this season and the storms that develop is what I care about and how the models are performing not 2010:)
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15302

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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