Damaging rains bust the drought in portions of Florida Panhandle

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on June 11, 2012

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Flood waters are receding in the rain-drenched Florida Panhandle and coastal Alabama today, where prodigious rains from a moist, tropical airmass interacting with a stalled front brought flooding that caused at least $20 million in damage to the Pensacola, Florida area. The most remarkable rains fell in West Pensacola, where 21.70" was recorded over the weekend. Pensacola airport received 13.13 inches of rain on Saturday, the city's second-highest 1-day rainfall total in recorded history. The only greater 1-day rainfall occurred on October 5, 1934, when Tropical Storm Nine brought 15.29" of rain to the city. Satellite loops of atmospheric precipitable water show that this weekend's heavy rains were caused by a flow of very moist tropical air that originated over the warm waters of the tropical Eastern Pacific and flowed northwards across Mexico and Central America to the Panhandle of Florida. This moist airmass has been replaced by relatively dry air over the Gulf, which should limit rainfall amounts today to the 1 - 2 inch range. A cold front expected to arrive on Tuesday will serve as the focus to bring additional rains of 1 - 2 inches per day to portions of the region Tuesday and Wednesday. Before this weekend's mighty rainstorm, the Florida Panhandle was experiencing severe to extreme drought, with 12 - 15 inches of rain needed to pull the region out of drought. This weekend's rains have busted the drought the extreme western Panhandle, but surrounding regions of Alabama, Georgia, and Florida still need 10+ inches of rain.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall for the Florida Panhandle from this weekend's rain storm.


Figure 2. Amount of precipitation needed to bust drought conditions over the U.S., as of June 2, 2012. A Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDI) of -0.5 is considered the boundary of where a drought exists. The 12 - 15 inches of rain that fell across the extreme western Florida Panhandle and coastal Alabama over the weekend were enough to bust the drought in those regions. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Some rainfall amounts from the storm, from 7 pm CDT Thu June 7, through 3 am CDT Sunday June 10, from the latest NOAA Storm Summary:

...ALABAMA...
TILLMANS CORNER 4.3 WNW 10.77"
GRAND BAY 0.6 NW 10.03"
MOBILE DOWNTOWN ARPT 8.97"

...FLORIDA...
WEST PENSACOLA 10.9 SW 21.70"
PENSACOLA RGNL ARPT 15.08"
MILTON 10.9 SSW 14.42"
PENSACOLA 3.8 N 13.88"
JACKSONVILLE 11.6 ENE 4.31"

...GEORGIA...
AUGUSTA/DANIEL FIELD 4.08"
WARNER ROBINS AFB 1.95"
VALDOSTA RGNL ARPT 1.50"

...LOUISIANA...
PONCHATOULA 11.8 E 5.64"
SLIDELL 4.29"
LACOMBE 1.4 N 3.73"
BATON ROUGE 2.5 E 2.26"
NEW ORLEANS/LAKEFRONT 2.13"

...MISSISSIPPI...
PASCAGOULA 7.50"
GULFPORT-BILOXI 6.52"
PASS CHRISTIAN 3.5 NE 4.69"

The Atlantic is quiet
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic today. The NOGAPS model is predicting formation of a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical depression in the Western Caribbean by Sunday, but none of the other models is going along with this idea. We could get something developing in the waters offshore of North Carolina late this week, along the edge of a cold front expected to move of the U.S. East Coast on Tuesday - Wednesday. The GFS model has suggested something could develop in this region in several of its recent runs.

Jeff Masters

flood (megulfbreeze)
Out the front window as our house flooded
flood
Flash (mobal)
I decided to turn around
Flash

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Quoting jeffs713:

At that rate, we will be in the Greek alphabet by the end of September.


If Hurricane Omega forms, we're all doomed. Or perhaps Nu. After all, life begins and ends with it.
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First derecho of 2012.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32822
Quoting ncstorm:
Here's my thinking which aint much..

Chris on the east coast
Debby in the West Caribbean
and Ernesto from the tropical wave by the Antilles..


At that rate, we will be in the Greek alphabet by the end of September.
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Here's my thinking...

80% chance of Chris by June 20
60% chance of Debby by June 20
30% chance of Ernesto by June 30
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8035
498. MTWX
Quoting RickWPB:

That's true. I heard that NOGAPS stands for...

NO Good At Predicting Storms. ;^)


It's good at the terrestrial stuff, but I wouldn't put too much faith in it for the tropics....
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497. TXCWC
While the 18Z GFS is not generally considered as reliable as the 0Z and 12z it is worth noting that today's 18Z is saying the same thing as the 12z Euro and within the same time period of around 240hr...may be an area worth watching in the coming days

12Z EURO


18Z GFS
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Nice loop eddy setting up across the eastern Gulf. 'Tis been a persistent feature this year. Could spell trouble for....

SPOILERS

























Tampa.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I honestly don't understand where you get that. The whole blog's attention has been on the Caribbean system up until yesterday, when the attention turned to the East Coast system since it is closer in time. We have plenty of time to watch the other, and it is no guarantee it will even go to Texas.
True...you're right. Well...we will have to see where it goes. It might hit SW louisiana as well...just gotta wait a few more days
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493. MTWX
Quoting presslord:
Johns Island SC is getting hammered right now...


So are we here in Columbus! Radar is still operational, but the feed is down! Getting ready to brave the storms and make the 30 minute trek to the site to see whats up.
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Quoting KoritheMan:

I'm not mad. :P
JM did mention it. I agree with most likely near term is another SE coast, gulf stream minor storm. Sure looks like nothing going on today.
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Quoting stormpetrol:
I think Chris will probably form from that blow up N of Panama and take a similar track as Arlene 2005. Might get Debby by end of June.


Hey having seen you on the blog in a while man. Say, what you think about development of Debby.
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Quoting Stormchaser121:

I agree with you on that...Several tropical weather websites and models agree with a TX storm, and no one is paying any attention to it. They are all worried with the east coast storm.

I honestly don't understand where you get that. The whole blog's attention has been on the Caribbean system up until yesterday, when the attention turned to the East Coast system since it is closer in time. We have plenty of time to watch the other, and it is no guarantee it will even go to Texas.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32822
Quoting Stormchaser121:

I agree with you on that...Several tropical weather websites and models agree with a TX storm, and no one is paying any attention to it. They are all worried with the east coast storm.
Actually I'am paying attention to it.Even though the models are going on and off.But the atmosphere at that time will have lower pressures MJO the sst are very warm.
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488. afj3
Oh well. Bungled that. Good CMC model run of a storm developing off NC...

Quoting afj3:


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487. afj3

Quoting afj3:



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486. afj3

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Quoting KoritheMan:

Actually, I noticed the GFS had a small vorticity maximum with this at 850 mb when I was writing my blog yesterday. It's within a reasonable timeframe, is climatologically favored, and personally, I think people aren't paying enough attention to it.

I agree with you on that...Several tropical weather websites and models agree with a TX storm, and no one is paying any attention to it. They are all worried with the east coast storm.
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Generally speaking, the top 3 are the ECMWF, GFS and CMC.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
Tx13 down to 0%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON JUN 11 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS WEAKENED. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED...AND IT HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14892
Quoting KoritheMan:

I dream of snow. But that's all it is... ;)
I hardly got any last winter.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17810
I'd give a...

70% chance of seeing "Chris" by July 1.

and a...

50% chance of seeing "Debby" by July 1.

and a...

10% chance of seeing "Ernesto" by July 1.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32822
Quoting rmjoeb1954:

wud up player? what's happenin in trinadad?


I'm in Grand Cayman, Cayman Islands, I think pottery is in Trinidad.
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Quoting RickWPB:

That's true. I heard that NOGAPS stands for...

NO Good At Predicting Storms.


That is correct. Unless the NOGAPS is in agreement with either the GFS or Euro I disregard it as incorrect.
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Quoting rmjoeb1954:


doc m makes reference to it. in today's blog.


Maybe he is unaware of that change in status for the NOGAPS.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574

Quoting washingtonian115:
It's never to bad to dream is what my parents always told me.
I dream of snow. But that's all it is... ;)
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Quoting Stormchaser121:

Thats what it says...but I dont agree with it, i say this will hit somewhere around the 23rd. But i could be wrong...all i know is that something might hit TX/LA soon.



Wow that is kind of weird. What companies future-cast is that? Models show something in our vicinity a week and a half away but as early as this Saturday? I can't believe that. Anything is possible but dang, I guess we will find out by Wed/Thurs.
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I think Chris will probably form from that blow up N of Panama and take a similar track as Arlene 2005. Might get Debby by end of June.
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Quoting KoritheMan:

Actually, I noticed the GFS had a small vorticity maximum with this at 850 mb when I was writing my blog yesterday. It's within a reasonable timeframe, is climatologically favored, and personally, I think people aren't paying enough attention to it.

Four storms in June!!
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32822
Quoting CybrTeddy:


NOGAPS is no longer considered a reliable global model from last I heard.

That's true. I heard that NOGAPS stands for...

NO Good At Predicting Storms. ;^)
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Quoting Stormchaser121:

Thats what it says...but I dont agree with it, i say this will hit somewhere around the 23rd. But i could be wrong...all i know is that something might hit TX/LA soon.
Actually, I noticed the GFS had a small vorticity maximum with this at 850 mb when I was writing my blog yesterday. It's within a reasonable timeframe, is climatologically favored, and personally, I think people aren't paying enough attention to it.
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Quoting KoritheMan:

One should never exchange objectivity for fantasy, however easy that might be.
It's never to bad to dream is what my parents always told me.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17810
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Quoting DavidHOUTX:


Wait.. is that this Saturday?

Thats what it says...but I dont agree with it, i say this will hit somewhere around the 23rd. But i could be wrong...all i know is that something might hit TX/LA soon.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
But come on now you have to admit.It'll be pretty awesome to have three storms in June.
One should never exchange objectivity for fantasy, however easy that might be.
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Charleston
NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation
Range 124 NMI

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Quoting rmjoeb1954:
 done good in days past.
"Even a broken clock is right twice a day."
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Quoting Stormchaser121:

This is gonna be something...im telling you!


Wait.. is that this Saturday?
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Quoting KoritheMan:

I'm not mad. :P
Sounds like you were pissed in the last few post.lol.But come on now you have to admit.It'll be pretty awesome to have three storms in June.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17810
<--- Went down to Bolivar and Galveston over the weekend.

Was a interesting trip.

I'm doing a 4 year post Ike entry and needed some interview's and pics.



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Johns Island SC is getting hammered right now...
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Quoting WxGeekVA:


Agree. Here's my two cents on that theory:




...
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Quoting washingtonian115:
K-man calm down now...
I'm not mad. :P
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K-man calm down now...I'm not exactly sure where the GFS is getting that mess from that forms over the Bahamas.I'm still going with two possible storms.Or I'll eat crow.I know that at least 1 coming out of the MJO pulse is certain.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17810

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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