Damaging rains bust the drought in portions of Florida Panhandle

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on June 11, 2012

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Flood waters are receding in the rain-drenched Florida Panhandle and coastal Alabama today, where prodigious rains from a moist, tropical airmass interacting with a stalled front brought flooding that caused at least $20 million in damage to the Pensacola, Florida area. The most remarkable rains fell in West Pensacola, where 21.70" was recorded over the weekend. Pensacola airport received 13.13 inches of rain on Saturday, the city's second-highest 1-day rainfall total in recorded history. The only greater 1-day rainfall occurred on October 5, 1934, when Tropical Storm Nine brought 15.29" of rain to the city. Satellite loops of atmospheric precipitable water show that this weekend's heavy rains were caused by a flow of very moist tropical air that originated over the warm waters of the tropical Eastern Pacific and flowed northwards across Mexico and Central America to the Panhandle of Florida. This moist airmass has been replaced by relatively dry air over the Gulf, which should limit rainfall amounts today to the 1 - 2 inch range. A cold front expected to arrive on Tuesday will serve as the focus to bring additional rains of 1 - 2 inches per day to portions of the region Tuesday and Wednesday. Before this weekend's mighty rainstorm, the Florida Panhandle was experiencing severe to extreme drought, with 12 - 15 inches of rain needed to pull the region out of drought. This weekend's rains have busted the drought the extreme western Panhandle, but surrounding regions of Alabama, Georgia, and Florida still need 10+ inches of rain.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall for the Florida Panhandle from this weekend's rain storm.


Figure 2. Amount of precipitation needed to bust drought conditions over the U.S., as of June 2, 2012. A Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDI) of -0.5 is considered the boundary of where a drought exists. The 12 - 15 inches of rain that fell across the extreme western Florida Panhandle and coastal Alabama over the weekend were enough to bust the drought in those regions. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Some rainfall amounts from the storm, from 7 pm CDT Thu June 7, through 3 am CDT Sunday June 10, from the latest NOAA Storm Summary:

...ALABAMA...
TILLMANS CORNER 4.3 WNW 10.77"
GRAND BAY 0.6 NW 10.03"
MOBILE DOWNTOWN ARPT 8.97"

...FLORIDA...
WEST PENSACOLA 10.9 SW 21.70"
PENSACOLA RGNL ARPT 15.08"
MILTON 10.9 SSW 14.42"
PENSACOLA 3.8 N 13.88"
JACKSONVILLE 11.6 ENE 4.31"

...GEORGIA...
AUGUSTA/DANIEL FIELD 4.08"
WARNER ROBINS AFB 1.95"
VALDOSTA RGNL ARPT 1.50"

...LOUISIANA...
PONCHATOULA 11.8 E 5.64"
SLIDELL 4.29"
LACOMBE 1.4 N 3.73"
BATON ROUGE 2.5 E 2.26"
NEW ORLEANS/LAKEFRONT 2.13"

...MISSISSIPPI...
PASCAGOULA 7.50"
GULFPORT-BILOXI 6.52"
PASS CHRISTIAN 3.5 NE 4.69"

The Atlantic is quiet
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic today. The NOGAPS model is predicting formation of a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical depression in the Western Caribbean by Sunday, but none of the other models is going along with this idea. We could get something developing in the waters offshore of North Carolina late this week, along the edge of a cold front expected to move of the U.S. East Coast on Tuesday - Wednesday. The GFS model has suggested something could develop in this region in several of its recent runs.

Jeff Masters

flood (megulfbreeze)
Out the front window as our house flooded
flood
Flash (mobal)
I decided to turn around
Flash

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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Tx13 wow,you forecasted a hurricane from 93E and look at this.

NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_ep932012.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201206120029
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END


So whats your point, im sure you screwed up a few times
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Quoting yqt1001:
Major hurricane landfalls by year:

2011: None
2010: Karl
2009: None
2008: Gustav, Ike, Omar and Paloma
2007: Dean and Felix
2006: None
2005: Dennis, Emily, Katrina, Rita, Wilma and Beta
2004: Charley, Ivan and Jeanne
2003: Fabian
2002: Isidore
2001: Iris and Michelle
2000: Keith

Aside from 2004 and 2008, leap years are average years. :P


The last 3 years are what concerns me. People are getting complacent and when that happens that'll be when the next Big One hits
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Tx13 wow,you forecasted a hurricane from 93E and look at this.

NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_ep932012.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201206120029
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

Hey, he wasn't alone... This system really missed expectations badly.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7839
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The conditions they work in and the challenges they face when working outside in it.

I say they drop every single show except Storm Stories.

Thats like the old wx channel, the ought to have day planner pm edition weekend view and storm stories and no more. i hate it now
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Keith weakened to a tropical storm before moving actually moving inland, though its intense core did affect the Bay Islands of Honduras.


Did it? The WP track was too close for me to tell. :P

Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1286
NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_ep932012.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201206120029
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting yqt1001:
Major hurricane landfalls by year:

2011: None
2010: Karl
2009: None
2008: Gustav, Ike, Omar and Paloma
2007: Dean and Felix
2006: None
2005: Dennis, Emily, Katrina, Rita, Wilma and Beta
2004: Charley, Ivan and Jeanne
2003: Fabian
2002: Isidore
2001: Iris and Michelle
2000: Keith

Aside from 2004 and 2008, leap years are average years. :P


Keith weakened to a tropical storm before moving actually moving inland, though its intense core did affect the Bay Islands of Honduras.
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saw on radar dont know if anyone saw, first derecho. could this hit me does anyone think? (Im around that plus)
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Quoting washingtonian115:
And Iron man..What does that have to do with weather?.



what time ?
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Major hurricane landfalls by year:

2011: None
2010: Karl
2009: None
2008: Gustav, Ike, Omar and Paloma
2007: Dean and Felix
2006: None
2005: Dennis, Emily, Katrina, Rita, Wilma and Beta
2004: Charley, Ivan and Jeanne
2003: Fabian
2002: Isidore
2001: Iris and Michelle
2000: None

Aside from 2004 and 2008, leap years are average years. :P
Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1286
hey guys all I know is that whatever happens in the W Caribbean it will be big in size you can already start to see it form in the W Caribbean notice on sattelite convection is starting to develop and grow in the area the main areas you can see are as follows
larger areas
#1- 8N-14N 83W-70W
#2- 21N-18N 78W-70W
#3- 18N-16N 95W-90W

smaller areas
#1- 19.5N-19.0N 81.0W-87W

anyway I am expecting the convection to continue to grow throught Tue Wed Thurs by this time we should have a low in the W caribbean
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It has been slow to organize, but we do have Tropical Depression Five-W. The NWS in Guam has issued tropical storm advisories for some of the islands of Yap.



This blob that everyone has been talking about has definitely gotten my attention. It looks poised to become Carlotta, sooner or later.

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If we get one in next week off SE coast, can we all agree we are better than the best models? The more we know the more I realize how little we know. Go figure.
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Wow. This is basically a PDS severe thunderstorm warning.

AT 728 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH. SIREN ACTIVATION IS
SUGGESTED
. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
TOLARVILLE TO ROLLING FORK MOVING SOUTH AT 35 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
EBENEZER...FRANKLIN...DURANT AND CARY BY 735 PM CDT...
HOLLY BLUFF...ONWARD AND YAZOO CITY BY 740 PM CDT...
GOODMAN AND MIDWAY BY 745 PM CDT...
PICKENS BY 750 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS STORM. WINDS OF 80 MPH OR GREATER
CAN EXTENSIVELY DAMAGE OR DESTROY MOBILE HOMES...WHICH SHOULD BE
EVACUATED IF POSSIBLE. SIGNIFICANT ROOF DAMAGE MAY OCCUR TO WELL
BUILT HOMES AND STRUCTURES...ALONG WITH EXTENSIVE TREE AND POWERLINE
DAMAGE. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE ACROSS
SUNFLOWER AND NORTHERN HUMPHREYS COUNTIES. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS!
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7839
Quoting TomTaylor:
I remember when I used to watch The Weather Channel...


lol jk, but I practically never watch that channel, pretty boring and it's a pretty poor source for weather information.
Most of my family (except my somewhat weather-savvy dad, whom I partially thank for my fire in this field) holds it considerable esteem, moreso than either the local NWS forecast offices or the local news station, our meteorologist of which is actually pretty good.

I must simply laugh.
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Quoting wxgeek723:


Keith kind of ruins the pattern...
Only if you're US-centric, which I suppose most of this blog is. You know what? You're right. Keith DOES ruin the pattern.

There goes my roll. :/
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

What's that one off Africa, lol?
Shows how slow in normal area's of interest this time of year.
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I thought I saw a hint of this earlier on the GFS operational run about two lows off the SE coast..it looks like the ensembles are thinking it too..

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15704
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Getting a bit crowded????

What's that one off Africa, lol?
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7839


Getting a bit crowded????
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The Weather Channel's premiere of "Hurricane Hunters" begins in exactly one hour. Perhaps it will be partially enjoyable, unlike other shows like "Twist of fate" or "Ice road truckers".
I remember when I used to watch The Weather Channel...


lol jk, but I practically never watch that channel, pretty boring and it's a pretty poor source for weather information.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It looks decent, honestly.

I was really confused about what they were developing it from when reading the NHC TWD, but it all makes sense now.

We may get Carlotta after all.

Yes indeed, sorry for any confusion
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Good time to be on a cruise.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Plus it's the four year cycle of devastating events.

2008 = Gustav, Hanna, Ike
2004 = Charley, Frances, Ivan, Jeanne
2000 = Keith
1996 = Fran
1992 = Andrew
1988 = Gilbert

etc.

...Wait? That's delving into superstition, isn't it? Too bad. All those wishing to experience a hurricane will have to wait until further notice.


Keith kind of ruins the pattern...
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Quoting TomTaylor:
Yeah, that's the one I'm talking about. The area just off Panama and Costa Rica is forecasted by the models to become a tropical storm around 90W on the 13th or 14th.

Further west, remnants of 93E/the monsoon trough may develop later, but models are less consistent about that.

It looks decent, honestly.

I was really confused about what they were developing it from when reading the NHC TWD, but it all makes sense now.

We may get Carlotta after all.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32287
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Meh. I like the Panama-ian blob better.

Yeah, that's the one I'm talking about. The area just off Panama and Costa Rica is forecasted by the models to become a tropical storm around 90W on the 13th or 14th.

Further west, remnants of 93E/the monsoon trough may develop later, but models are less consistent about that.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


There are few people as exquisite and charming in demeanor as yours truly. No need to flaunt it, but thanks for the thought. ;)


Lol…Common sense and logic will always rule!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I say they drop every single show except Storm Stories.
I stopped caring after they shafted Cantore.
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What are odds when first two storms are SE coast, that third is also SE coast? We don't know but until they stop on early SE coast, I'm putting my money in that camp.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The conditions they work in and the challenges they face when working outside in it.

I say they drop every single show except Storm Stories.

Nah, drop that one too... It was good 10 years ago or so, not so much now.

I wish we had a live video of the hurricane hunters whenever they were investigating a storm... THAT would be cool! Still, I think the show on TWC will be good.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7839
In the meantime as the derecho slams the Southeast reports are rolling in:
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Quoting TomTaylor:
ECMWF and GFS have consistently been developing something around 90-95W around June 13-14th. ECMWF keeps it weak, maybe reaching TS status, GFS develops it more, bringing it to a moderate to strong TS. With such consistency between runs and agreement between models, I'd say there's a good chance we will see something in the EPAC. Maybe it won't become a TS, but we'll at least get another invest. This feature could also help get something going in the gulf, like the 12z Euro shows at the end of its run. So we'll also have to watch the gulf, although I wouldn't expect anything in there until next week based off current forecasted upper level conditions.

By the way, for the next several days the East Pacific is definitely favored...00z GFS Ensemble 500mb Height Anomalies at 72hrs

Meh. I like the Panama-ian blob better.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32287
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
You are on a roll tonight Kori!


There are few people as exquisite and charming in demeanor as yours truly. No need to flaunt it, but thanks for the thought. ;)
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516. MTWX
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
First derecho of 2012.



60 MPH wind gust recorded here at the airbase... Possible tornado reported East of Tupelo in Lee County.
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You are on a roll tonight Kori!
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Quoting washingtonian115:
And Iron man..What does that have to do with weather?.

The conditions they work in and the challenges they face when working outside in it.

I say they drop every single show except Storm Stories.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32287
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The Weather Channel's premiere of "Hurricane Hunters" begins in exactly one hour. Perhaps it will be partially enjoyable, unlike other shows like "Twist of fate" or "Ice road truckers".
And Iron man..What does that have to do with weather?.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17097
The Weather Channel's premiere of "Hurricane Hunters" begins in exactly one hour. Perhaps it will be partially enjoyable, unlike other shows like "Twist of fate" or "Ice road truckers".
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32287
Quoting washingtonian115:
Well this is a leap year...and something bad always happens in a leap year.


Hm.

2008: Gustav, Ike
2004: Charley, Frances, Ivan, Jeanne.
2000: Keith.
1996: Cesar, Fran, Hortense.
1992: Andrew.
1988: Gilbert, Joan.
1984: Diana (VERY close call)
1980: Allen.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm starting to doubt we get anything in the East Pacific this week. The Atlantic looks like it will win out completely with a possible system off the East Coast and in the Caribbean.
ECMWF and GFS have consistently been developing something around 90-95W around June 13-14th. ECMWF keeps it weak, maybe reaching TS status, GFS develops it more, bringing it to a moderate to strong TS. With such consistency between runs and agreement between models, I'd say there's a good chance we will see something in the EPAC. Maybe it won't become a TS, but we'll at least get another invest. This feature could also help get something going in the gulf, like the 12z Euro shows at the end of its run. So we'll also have to watch the gulf, although I wouldn't expect anything in there until next week based off current forecasted upper level conditions.

By the way, for the next several days the East Pacific is definitely favored...00z GFS Ensemble 500mb Height Anomalies at 72hrs

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Quoting MAweatherboy1:


I think we're making way to big of a deal out of the fact that Dr. Masters mentioned the NOGAPS in his blog... All he's saying is it shows a system developing so it's something to keep an eye on to see if other models jump on board... He is by no means saying anything on the NOGAPS will verify


please stop being so damned rational ;-)
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Well this is a leap year...and something bad always happens in a leap year.


Plus it's the four year cycle of devastating events.

2008 = Gustav, Hanna, Ike
2004 = Charley, Frances, Ivan, Jeanne
2000 = Keith
1996 = Fran
1992 = Andrew
1988 = Gilbert

etc.

...Wait? That's delving into superstition, isn't it? Too bad. All those wishing to experience a hurricane will have to wait until further notice.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
First derecho of 2012.



A derecho (Spanish: derecho "straight", pronounced [de̞ˈɾe̞tʃo̞][1]), is a widespread and long-lived, violent convectively induced straight-line windstorm that is associated with a fast-moving band of severe thunderstorms in the form of a squall line usually taking the form of a bow echo.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3276
506. TXCWC
While not as clear as the operational runs but maybe even more importantly, the GFS and Euro ensemble means are also showing a low in the Bay of Campeche as well around the same time frame

12Z EURO Ensemble Mean


12Z GFS Ensemble Mean
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Maybe he is unaware of that change in status for the NOGAPS.


I think we're making way to big of a deal out of the fact that Dr. Masters mentioned the NOGAPS in his blog... All he's saying is it shows a system developing so it's something to keep an eye on to see if other models jump on board... He is by no means saying anything on the NOGAPS will verify
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7839
Well this is a leap year...and something bad always happens in a leap year.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17097
The lack of clouds means the water is heating faster than normal. Something the data will show in coming weeks.
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Quoting jeffs713:

At that rate, we will be in the Greek alphabet by the end of September.


If Hurricane Omega forms, we're all doomed. Or perhaps Nu. After all, life begins and ends with it.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.