Damaging rains bust the drought in portions of Florida Panhandle

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on June 11, 2012

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Flood waters are receding in the rain-drenched Florida Panhandle and coastal Alabama today, where prodigious rains from a moist, tropical airmass interacting with a stalled front brought flooding that caused at least $20 million in damage to the Pensacola, Florida area. The most remarkable rains fell in West Pensacola, where 21.70" was recorded over the weekend. Pensacola airport received 13.13 inches of rain on Saturday, the city's second-highest 1-day rainfall total in recorded history. The only greater 1-day rainfall occurred on October 5, 1934, when Tropical Storm Nine brought 15.29" of rain to the city. Satellite loops of atmospheric precipitable water show that this weekend's heavy rains were caused by a flow of very moist tropical air that originated over the warm waters of the tropical Eastern Pacific and flowed northwards across Mexico and Central America to the Panhandle of Florida. This moist airmass has been replaced by relatively dry air over the Gulf, which should limit rainfall amounts today to the 1 - 2 inch range. A cold front expected to arrive on Tuesday will serve as the focus to bring additional rains of 1 - 2 inches per day to portions of the region Tuesday and Wednesday. Before this weekend's mighty rainstorm, the Florida Panhandle was experiencing severe to extreme drought, with 12 - 15 inches of rain needed to pull the region out of drought. This weekend's rains have busted the drought the extreme western Panhandle, but surrounding regions of Alabama, Georgia, and Florida still need 10+ inches of rain.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall for the Florida Panhandle from this weekend's rain storm.


Figure 2. Amount of precipitation needed to bust drought conditions over the U.S., as of June 2, 2012. A Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDI) of -0.5 is considered the boundary of where a drought exists. The 12 - 15 inches of rain that fell across the extreme western Florida Panhandle and coastal Alabama over the weekend were enough to bust the drought in those regions. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Some rainfall amounts from the storm, from 7 pm CDT Thu June 7, through 3 am CDT Sunday June 10, from the latest NOAA Storm Summary:

...ALABAMA...
TILLMANS CORNER 4.3 WNW 10.77"
GRAND BAY 0.6 NW 10.03"
MOBILE DOWNTOWN ARPT 8.97"

...FLORIDA...
WEST PENSACOLA 10.9 SW 21.70"
PENSACOLA RGNL ARPT 15.08"
MILTON 10.9 SSW 14.42"
PENSACOLA 3.8 N 13.88"
JACKSONVILLE 11.6 ENE 4.31"

...GEORGIA...
AUGUSTA/DANIEL FIELD 4.08"
WARNER ROBINS AFB 1.95"
VALDOSTA RGNL ARPT 1.50"

...LOUISIANA...
PONCHATOULA 11.8 E 5.64"
SLIDELL 4.29"
LACOMBE 1.4 N 3.73"
BATON ROUGE 2.5 E 2.26"
NEW ORLEANS/LAKEFRONT 2.13"

...MISSISSIPPI...
PASCAGOULA 7.50"
GULFPORT-BILOXI 6.52"
PASS CHRISTIAN 3.5 NE 4.69"

The Atlantic is quiet
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic today. The NOGAPS model is predicting formation of a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical depression in the Western Caribbean by Sunday, but none of the other models is going along with this idea. We could get something developing in the waters offshore of North Carolina late this week, along the edge of a cold front expected to move of the U.S. East Coast on Tuesday - Wednesday. The GFS model has suggested something could develop in this region in several of its recent runs.

Jeff Masters

flood (megulfbreeze)
Out the front window as our house flooded
flood
Flash (mobal)
I decided to turn around
Flash

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Quoting KoritheMan:


What's it about? I don't have a TV in this room.

Hurricane Hunters...flying into hurricanes.

It shows what they do up there and stuff.

They're flying through Irene right now. Hurricane-force winds extended out 100 miles from the center.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32875
.
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Quoting ncstorm:


Wow..as Levi is not here to speak for himself, I am opting out of this conversation


I was bein sarcastic thought that was obvious sorry Levi and anyone else
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Quoting weatherh98:
yup that was book of Levi 15:35


Wow..as Levi is not here to speak for himself, I am opting out of this conversation
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598. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05
9:00 AM JST June 12 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Caroline Islands

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 9.6N 143.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 10.0N 141.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Caroline Islands

Tiyan, Guam NWS
===============

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR FAIS AND ULITHI IN YAP STATE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR YAP
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Hurricane Hunters is easily the single most interesting show on The Weather Channel now.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32875
Quoting KoritheMan:


I think Levi's word is considered gospel here, and that's unfair. He's a very smart guy, and I consider him to be my friend. However, there is room for disagreement. I disagree with certified professionals (i.e. NHC) all the time.


I dont considered it gospel and I have seen him wrong but rarely have I seen that..you right there's room for disagreement but he did state it was from a trough..I only agreed with Weather as he mentioned he thought it was from that feature as you just disagree with weather about it not being a trough..
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For S FL WPB
30% chance of precipitation
Chance of T-storms
50% chance of precipitation
Chance of T-storms
40% chance of precipitation
Chance of T-storms
60% chance of precipitation
Chance of T-storms
60% chance of precipitation
Chance of T-storms
70% chance of precipitatio
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I think Levi's word is considered gospel here, and that's unfair. He's a very smart guy, and I consider him to be my friend. However, there is room for disagreement. I disagree with certified professionals (i.e. NHC) all the time.
yup that was book of Levi 15:35
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15 minute review: Hurricane Hunters is worth watching.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32875
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

He might want to look in the mirror first...


LOL

Alrighty 515 comes early if the derecho hits I'll wake up and say my peace about it although it may be something like
Waahcjjenesk cantg seep gthinder wke md up

Night
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Quoting ncstorm:

I think it was a trough.... then it forms

according to levi blog, yes, thats correct..


I think Levi's word is considered gospel here, and that's unfair. He's a very smart guy, and I consider him to be my friend. However, there is room for disagreement. I disagree with certified professionals (i.e. NHC) all the time.
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I think it was a trough.... then it forms

according to levi blog, yes, thats correct..
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Quoting weatherh98:


Its fun

He might want to look in the mirror first...
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Quoting KoritheMan:

NO


Its fun
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Quoting Hurricanes305:


It peaked 70 just before landfall. In fact it could of been a Hurricane if it stay another four hours over water.


I meant in general the storms like Alberto, Cindy, Bret, Jose, Gert, Franklin etc.
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Quoting MTWX:


Quit picking on everyone Kori!! :P
NO
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585. MTWX
Quoting KoritheMan:


I will openly admit that I am one of the most abrasive people on this forum. I pull no punches. However, I realize not everyone is like me, and with the only means of communication confined to text, I am very careful about how I phrase my posts. Usually I'll end some of the more abrasive ones with emoticons. It makes people know I'm joking, or at least not actively trying to offend.


Quit picking on everyone Kori!! :P
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Quoting yqt1001:


Well something like that. I'm just tired of these useless gulf stream storms that live a day or two and peak at 60mph. Beryl was enough excitement though.

The global situation is boring enough as it is...we are in a huge major hurricane drought that started in 2008. :/


It peaked 70 just before landfall. In fact it could of been a Hurricane if it stay another four hours over water.
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
On a segment of the tropical update today on TWC, I was pleasantly surprised to see them spending over 50% of their allotted time talking about and showing/explaining the MJO chart and the pulsing movement towards the Western Pacific/Caribbean in week 3 and 4.
.
I had never before seen TWC speak to the MJO.


me either
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Quoting weatherh98:


i knew it wasnt a trough split. just thought if formed from a trough though so your prolly right, i cant remember exactly
I did do a TCR on the thing, after all. :P

Tropical Storm Beryl [AL02]

AL0212

26 May - 30 May

Beryl was the second out of season tropical storm to form in the Atlantic during 2012. Its formation marked the first time since 1887 that two tropical storms formed during the month of May. In addition, Beryl's landfall near Jacksonville as a 60 kt tropical storm makes it the strongest pre-June tropical cyclone landfall on record for the United States. The previous record was held by Subtropical Storm Alpha, which struck the Georgia coast with 50 kt winds inMay of 1972.

a. Storm history

A tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa on 12 May, and is believed to have been the precursor to Beryl. The wave was accompanied by some deep convection as it emerged from the coast. Thereafter, the wave become largely indistinct as it marched across the Atlantic, and its entrance into the western Caribbean on 21 May is based largely on extrapolation and continuity. Subsequently, the wave began to interact with a preexisting area of anomalous southwesterly flow encompassing a distance from the far eastern Pacific to Bermuda. This large-scale flow pattern, which has shown to be quite favorable for the initiation of thunderstorm development, could have been triggered by the upward phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), which was making its way across the far eastern Pacific and adjacent Caribbean Sea at that time. Strong westerly shear prevented significant development while the system was in the Caribbean.

In the wake of Alberto, a small trough became established over the eastern seaboard, which forced the disorganized disturbance toward the east-northeast. The system crossed eastern Cuba early on 24 May, and entered the western Atlantic in the vicinity of the Bahamas later that day. Surface observations from Grand Bahama indicated westerly winds as early as 1200 UTC 25 May as the disturbance passed to the east, providing evidence of a closed circulation at the surface. The low moved northeastward at about 15 mph during this time, embedded in broad southwesterly flow associated with the trough. Under the influence of the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, the system began to acquire organized deep convection near the center. While such an evolution would typically presage tropical cyclone formation, analysis of satellite and water vapor imagery indicates that the surface low was collocated with an upper low that had apparently been spawned from the same trough that recurved Alberto. This prevented the convection from forming directly over the center. In addition, the system initially lacked upper-level outflow, another distinct characteristic of a tropical cyclone.

Late on 25 May, the trough weakened, leaving the system in a region of weak steering. Owing to the influence of the upper low, the designation of the system as a cyclone at 0000 UTC 26 May is considered to be subtropical. The "best track" of the cyclone (listed below) begins at this time. Other coordinates, including six-hourly position, pressure, and intensity estimates, respectively, are also given. Beryl was initially trapped in a region of weak steering, and moved only slowly southwest. A large blocking pattern began to amplify over the eastern United States at this time, which caused the cyclone to gradually accelerate. Based on microwave data and satellite imagery, Beryl is estimated to have transformed into a tropical cyclone near 1800 UTC 27 May while centered about 110 miles east of Jacksonville, Florida. The cyclone's winds are estimated to have been around 55 kt at this time.

As it rounded the southern periphery of the ridge, Beryl turned westward throughout much of the 27th. Under light shear and warm waters, the cyclone strengthened, reaching a peak of 60 kt shortly before landfall along the northeastern Florida coast near Jacksonville Beach just after 0400 UTC 28 May. The cyclone appeared to be on the verge of becoming a hurricane, as doppler visuals indicated a developing eyewall. Following the typical progression, Beryl began to weaken as it moved inland. Concurrently, the cyclone slowed significantly, which was followed by a gradual turn to the north and northeast around the western periphery of the subtropical ridge. Indeed, the forward speed had decreased so much that the cyclone became essentially stationary near the Georgia/Florida border for about twelve hours beginning around 0000 UTC 29 May. Beryl weakened to a tropical depression near 1200 UTC 29 May while still over northern Florida about 15 miles south of the Georgia border. It should be noted that it took Beryl roughly 38 hours to weaken to a tropical depression after landfall -- a rather anomalous inland decay rate, especially for a system of Beryl's strength.

The slow weakening of the tropical cyclone while moving overland is likely attributable to Beryl's close proximity to the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. Its slow movement enabled it to develop a well-defined and persistent inflow band to the east, which helped to continue mixing the strong winds aloft to the surface. Interestingly, water vapor imagery shortly after landfall indicated dry air and some westerly shear impinging on the cyclone's western periphery, which kept much of the associated precipitation in well-defined bands to the east of the center. By around 1200 UTC 29 May, Beryl began to accelerate. As Beryl neared the South Carolina near 0600 UTC, the cloud pattern began to become more suggestive of an extratropical cyclone as the storm began to interact with a cold front moving across the northeastern United States. Synoptic data suggest that this process was complete six hours later, when the system was very near the North Carolina coast.
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Wow 93E when from being forecast to become a hurricane by the models to being on the verge of dissipating. I have little confidence it will be a system. However, the blog south of Panama could develop and be a threat to land.
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The Hurricane Hunters special has started at TWC.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


What I mean't was how fast that invest went away after having good conditions although the window was not very big. Nothing intentional to my friend Tx13.

Okay. You're forgiven. :P
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32875
On a segment of the tropical update today on TWC, I was pleasantly surprised to see them spending over 50% of their allotted time talking about and showing/explaining the MJO chart and the pulsing movement towards the Eastern Pacific/Caribbean in week 3 and 4.
.
I had never before seen TWC speak to the MJO.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5689
Quoting KoritheMan:

Beryl didn't form from a trough split.


Well something like that. I'm just tired of these useless gulf stream storms that live a day or two and peak at 60mph. Beryl was enough excitement though.

The global situation is boring enough as it is...we are in a huge major hurricane drought that started in 2008. :/
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Quoting KoritheMan:

It formed from a tropical wave interacting with the monsoon trough. That's not considered a trough split.


i knew it wasnt a trough split. just thought if formed from a trough though so your prolly right, i cant remember exactly
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Quoting weatherh98:


I think it was a trough.... then it forms
It formed from a tropical wave interacting with the monsoon trough. That's not considered a trough split.
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Quoting KoritheMan:

I had a guy at the NWS Jackson office tell me that TWC's forecasts are based entirely on models. There is no personal revision or modification.
I believe it.
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Quoting KoritheMan:

Beryl didn't form from a trough split.


I think it was a trough.... then it forms
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Quoting TomTaylor:
Well their 5 day, 10 day, or weekly forecast (whatever it is) may actually be pretty good, or perhaps even better than that of the NWS.
That's not saying much, considering it's fairly easy to predict the synoptic pattern at such short intervals.

I had a guy at the NWS Jackson office tell me that TWC's forecasts are based entirely on models. There is no personal revision or modification.
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TVS on a storm in MS
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Quoting yqt1001:
I'm not going to lie, even I was sold on development. I being the person who didn't even think Bery would develop when ATCF said it had become a STS (I hate trough splits though and I've gotten tired of them since 2011).
Beryl didn't form from a trough split.
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I'm not going to lie, even I was sold on development. I being the person who didn't even think Bery would develop when ATCF said it had become a STS (I hate trough splits though and I've gotten tired of them since 2011).

I said 93E would become a near hurricane, 60kts peak. I believe that the wall of shear none of the models predicted surprised us all. :P
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


What I mean't was how fast that invest went away after having good conditions (Although the window was not very big) Nothing intentional to my friend Tx13.


I will openly admit that I am one of the most abrasive people on this forum. I pull no punches. However, I realize not everyone is like me, and with the only means of communication confined to text, I am very careful about how I phrase my posts. Usually I'll end some of the more abrasive ones with emoticons. It makes people know I'm joking, or at least not actively trying to offend.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


In my defense, I have Jackson, Slidell, Baton Rouge, and New Orleans "plused". And with you selecting the Jackson radar, I was unsure. :P


Good point... Shouldve seen if slidell got up that way
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Quoting KoritheMan:
Most of my family (except my somewhat weather-savvy dad, whom I partially thank for my fire in this field) holds it considerable esteem, moreso than either the local NWS forecast offices or the local news station, our meteorologist of which is actually pretty good.

I must simply laugh.
Well their 5 day, 10 day, or weekly forecast (whatever it is) may actually be pretty good, or perhaps even better than that of the NWS. All I'm saying is The Weather Channel is focused on the general public. The average person doesn't know much or care much about weather they just want to know if it will be hot or cold, and sunny or rainy. Seems like most of the information there is simplified or almost dumbed-down to fit the needs of the general public. They make it so their products are simple, aesthetically pleasing (so much so that they are willing to sacrifice radar resolution for looks), and only show basic parameters like precipitation and temperature (you'd never find a CAPE chart on weather.com), which, in my opinion, offers little insight to what is really going on. That is why I rarely use their website and almost never watch their programs.
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well looking at the lifted index i would say it holds together, and it is VERY HOT and HUMID
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I felt development was possible, too. Obviously it wasn't. As I told the kid earlier, failure is the name of the game. You win some you lose some.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Seriously. I doubt you [Tropicsweatherpr] were intentionally being insensitive, but the way you phrased that comment was really uncalled for.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Seriously. I doubt you [Tropicsweatherpr] were intentionally being insensitive, but the way you phrased that comment was really uncalled for.


What I mean't was how fast that invest went away after having good conditions although the window was not very big. Nothing intentional to my friend Tx13.
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Lay off TA13. You all should be ashamed of yourselves picking on him for one blown forecast. Why don't you go and do better than him if he is so bad at predicting development, eh?
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Quoting weatherh98:


no im way down in LA not the radar site. I wish i were there haha


In my defense, I have Jackson, Slidell, Baton Rouge, and New Orleans "plused". And with you selecting the Jackson radar, I was unsure. :P
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I'm legitimately surprised there is no PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watch out for this Derecho. It means business.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32875
Quoting KoritheMan:


Based on the 12z Jackson skew-t, radar data, and discussion from the NWS themselves, I'd say yes. Severe wind gusts are possible. Wish I could join you, bro.


no im way down in LA not the radar site. I wish i were there haha
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm sorry I made a mistake?


Seriously. I doubt you [Tropicsweatherpr] were intentionally being insensitive, but the way you phrased that comment was really uncalled for.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm sorry I made a mistake?


BE SORRY lol jk
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm sorry I made a mistake?


BE SORRY lol jk
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Quoting weatherh98:


saw on radar dont know if anyone saw, first derecho. could this hit me does anyone think? (Im around that plus)


Based on the 12z Jackson skew-t, radar data, and discussion from the NWS themselves, I'd say yes. Severe wind gusts are possible. Wish I could join you, bro.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Tx13 wow,you forecasted a hurricane from 93E and look at this.

NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_ep932012.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201206120029
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

I'm sorry I made a mistake?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32875
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Hey, he wasn't alone... This system really missed expectations badly.


Condditions were there
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Tx13 wow,you forecasted a hurricane from 93E and look at this.

NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_ep932012.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201206120029
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END


So whats your point, im sure you screwed up a few times
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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