Damaging rains bust the drought in portions of Florida Panhandle

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on June 11, 2012

Share this Blog
23
+

Flood waters are receding in the rain-drenched Florida Panhandle and coastal Alabama today, where prodigious rains from a moist, tropical airmass interacting with a stalled front brought flooding that caused at least $20 million in damage to the Pensacola, Florida area. The most remarkable rains fell in West Pensacola, where 21.70" was recorded over the weekend. Pensacola airport received 13.13 inches of rain on Saturday, the city's second-highest 1-day rainfall total in recorded history. The only greater 1-day rainfall occurred on October 5, 1934, when Tropical Storm Nine brought 15.29" of rain to the city. Satellite loops of atmospheric precipitable water show that this weekend's heavy rains were caused by a flow of very moist tropical air that originated over the warm waters of the tropical Eastern Pacific and flowed northwards across Mexico and Central America to the Panhandle of Florida. This moist airmass has been replaced by relatively dry air over the Gulf, which should limit rainfall amounts today to the 1 - 2 inch range. A cold front expected to arrive on Tuesday will serve as the focus to bring additional rains of 1 - 2 inches per day to portions of the region Tuesday and Wednesday. Before this weekend's mighty rainstorm, the Florida Panhandle was experiencing severe to extreme drought, with 12 - 15 inches of rain needed to pull the region out of drought. This weekend's rains have busted the drought the extreme western Panhandle, but surrounding regions of Alabama, Georgia, and Florida still need 10+ inches of rain.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall for the Florida Panhandle from this weekend's rain storm.


Figure 2. Amount of precipitation needed to bust drought conditions over the U.S., as of June 2, 2012. A Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDI) of -0.5 is considered the boundary of where a drought exists. The 12 - 15 inches of rain that fell across the extreme western Florida Panhandle and coastal Alabama over the weekend were enough to bust the drought in those regions. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Some rainfall amounts from the storm, from 7 pm CDT Thu June 7, through 3 am CDT Sunday June 10, from the latest NOAA Storm Summary:

...ALABAMA...
TILLMANS CORNER 4.3 WNW 10.77"
GRAND BAY 0.6 NW 10.03"
MOBILE DOWNTOWN ARPT 8.97"

...FLORIDA...
WEST PENSACOLA 10.9 SW 21.70"
PENSACOLA RGNL ARPT 15.08"
MILTON 10.9 SSW 14.42"
PENSACOLA 3.8 N 13.88"
JACKSONVILLE 11.6 ENE 4.31"

...GEORGIA...
AUGUSTA/DANIEL FIELD 4.08"
WARNER ROBINS AFB 1.95"
VALDOSTA RGNL ARPT 1.50"

...LOUISIANA...
PONCHATOULA 11.8 E 5.64"
SLIDELL 4.29"
LACOMBE 1.4 N 3.73"
BATON ROUGE 2.5 E 2.26"
NEW ORLEANS/LAKEFRONT 2.13"

...MISSISSIPPI...
PASCAGOULA 7.50"
GULFPORT-BILOXI 6.52"
PASS CHRISTIAN 3.5 NE 4.69"

The Atlantic is quiet
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic today. The NOGAPS model is predicting formation of a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical depression in the Western Caribbean by Sunday, but none of the other models is going along with this idea. We could get something developing in the waters offshore of North Carolina late this week, along the edge of a cold front expected to move of the U.S. East Coast on Tuesday - Wednesday. The GFS model has suggested something could develop in this region in several of its recent runs.

Jeff Masters

flood (megulfbreeze)
Out the front window as our house flooded
flood
Flash (mobal)
I decided to turn around
Flash

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 702 - 652

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18Blog Index

Quoting HurricaneDean07:

TS Guchol


I dont know if you know this but although JTWC has upgraded to Tropical Storm,the oficial agency in that part of the world (JMA) has not upgraded yet. As soon as they upgrade,it will have the name Guchol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
Mobile
NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation
Range 124 NMI


*Jaws Theme Plays*
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherh98:


well looking at the lifted index i would say it holds together, and it is VERY HOT and HUMID
Not in Sooo Cal,have I told ya I love digging trofs in the summer!
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4576
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
TD #05 W Looking better and better!

TS Guchol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
698. wxmod
Satellite image. 320 miles wide view. Today in the Pacific. These are created by ships.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TD #05 W Looking better and better!
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4576
696. MTWX
If anything it looks like it has gained strength over the last couple of frames!! Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
695. MTWX
Quoting biloxibob:
its still hot and humid in Biloxi. I think we may about to get wacked.

I think it will make it's way down to you guys...

the temp here was 88 with a 96 heat index, right before the storms took care of that! Unfortunately there was quite a few trees knocked down around town.

We recorded a 60 MPH gust here at the base from the storms.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:


There are many U.S. Bases in Okinawa, from Kadena AFB, to the USMC Camp Hansen, Camp Schwabb,Foster and many others.







Thank you Pat for the clarification about more bases than the one I mentioned.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
New Atlantic tropical update on my blog hot of the press....
Gotten positive feedback on these new style of blog posts...and plan to keep doing them almost daily thru this season. Feel free to leave posts on how to make these discussion better....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

you didn't, I just wanted to give you a heads up on current model headings for the system.
Read my post 680.


Interesting theory. But I hope they're both wrong. Japan needs a break. :(
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:


There are many U.S. Bases in Okinawa, from Kadena AFB, to the USMC Camp Hansen, Camp Schwabb,Foster and many others.






Nice map...
I feel like I'm commenting on every single thing...
Just bored. Don't think there's a very decent amount of people on now... very slow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
689. wxmod
Quoting sunlinepr:


About comment 657, there are ships whitening clouds ahead of the cloudy bend in the jet stream. You can tell they are ships cause you can't see them in infrared. The whitening seems to reduce the high pressure so the storm can come into California. There was no storm predicted for OR and CA a couple of days ago. Thanks for the pretty satellite loop.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


You may be right. Just looked liked his ponderings about what the EURO shows. I'm assuming he has a better look at that model than I do. lol Wasn't meant to alarm anyone.

you didn't, I just wanted to give you a heads up on current model headings for the system.
Read my post 680.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Also an important place where many people live is Okinawa and the track may be very close to that area where a U.S base is located.


There are many U.S. Bases in Okinawa, from Kadena AFB, to the USMC Camp Hansen, Camp Schwabb,Foster and many others.





Member Since: Posts: Comments:
.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Mobile
NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation
Range 124 NMI

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
684. MTWX
Quoting MississippiWx:


Feeding off a very unstable atmosphere here in MS. Hasn't quite made it down to my location yet and normally I would say I'd expect it to die before reaching me. However, it's 83 degrees still at this hour with a dew point of 74! The air outside is so stagnant and you can barely breathe because of the humidity. I've got to believe it will make it to me in some form or fashion. Impressive MCS to say the least.


Thats how it was here earlier before the sysem passed and knocked that muggy funk out of the air!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

The storm is not projected for the south texas coast, it would more or so likely come into(If anywhere in texas) the upper texas coast, or farther east as a trough will provide a weakness to draw it north.


You may be right. Just looked liked his ponderings about what the EURO shows. I'm assuming he has a better look at that model than I do. lol Wasn't meant to alarm anyone.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
It appears we me say "Typhoon Guchol" swipe or make a close call with Taiwan before taking aim for JAPAN. That's right people I said Japan, but it appears there's really no other way out.
And as Levi says watch the track of Guchol because it'll actually ironically correspond to the track of the storm that forms in the Atlantic(aka Chris) if it were to form in the Caribbean.
So in my mind according to Guchol's track the system would follow similar to what the 6z GFS showed this morning.


Also an important place where many people live is Okinawa and the track may be very close to that area where a U.S base is located.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Anybody here?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It appears we may see "Typhoon Guchol" swipe or make a close call with Taiwan before taking aim for JAPAN. That's right people I said Japan, but it appears there's really no other way out.
And as Levi says watch the track of Guchol because it'll actually ironically correspond to the track of the storm that forms in the Atlantic(aka Chris) if it were to form in the Caribbean.
So in my mind according to Guchol's forecast track the system would follow similar to what the 6z GFS showed this morning.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
JTWC upgrades to Tropical Storm.


Tropical Storm Guchol. That's the name by the way.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ncstorm:


Nope..

Euro
CMC
Nogaps
UkMet
GFS--it had an upgrade and is still performing poorly


Watch out!!!!! FOOD FIGHT................LOL
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4576
Quoting MississippiWx:


Feeding off a very unstable atmosphere here in MS. Hasn't quite made it down to my location yet and normally I would say I'd expect it to die before reaching me. However, it's 83 degrees still at this hour with a dew point of 74! The air outside is so stagnant and you can barely breathe because of the humidity. I've got to believe it will make it to me in some form or fashion. Impressive MCS to say the least.
its still hot and humid in Biloxi. I think we may about to get wacked.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Local ABC affiliate's take.

Tropical possibilities

Posted: Jun 11, 2012 8:32 PM CDT Updated: Jun 11, 2012 8:37 PM CDT
By Patrick Vaughn


The Tropics are quiet at this point.

However, for the past few days, several of the forecast models have hinted at the possibility of tropical development in the Bay of Campeche. At this point, we are just in watch and wait mode.

The usually reliable European does spin up two tropical lows with in the next ten days.

The first low (please see Graphic #1), develops in the Bay of Campeche (SW Gulf of Mexico) on Sunday, June 17th and then treks it westward into Mexico.

The second low (please see Graphic #2), develops in the Bay of Campeche around Wednesday, June 20th and then treks it to the north and then westward towards South Texas after the 24th.

Note: This is model data and PURE SPECULATION. This can and will probably change over the next several days and is not set in stone. It is quite possible that nothing develops. So, do not be alarmed. This is just an attempt at giving you the earliest possible information.




The storm is not projected for the south texas coast, it would more or so likely come into(If anywhere in texas) the upper texas coast, or farther east as a trough will provide a weakness to draw it north.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
JTWC upgrades to Tropical Storm.

WTPN31 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (FIVE) WARNING NR 005
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 9.9N 143.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.9N 143.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 10.4N 141.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 10.8N 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 11.4N 138.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 12.0N 136.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 14.1N 132.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 17.6N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 20.3N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 10.0N 143.2E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 11
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z.//
NNNN


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This has been an impressive Derecho. There have been reports of numerous trees and power lines down across nearly all of northern Mississippi.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MTWX:
This thing hasn't been too windy... no not at all..

Check out the baseball hail from the cells in TX too!



Feeding off a very unstable atmosphere here in MS. Hasn't quite made it down to my location yet and normally I would say I'd expect it to die before reaching me. However, it's 83 degrees still at this hour with a dew point of 74! The air outside is so stagnant and you can barely breathe because of the humidity. I've got to believe it will make it to me in some form or fashion. Impressive MCS to say the least.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Current storm chart.

It appears (according to the chart), If the season were to follow current forecasts, It would be a very gradual season, with no occasions of 3 storms active IMO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Poll Time:
Should I make a Blog entry on the possible formation of Chris and/or Debby?
Yes
or
No
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Local ABC affiliate's take.

Tropical possibilities

Posted: Jun 11, 2012 8:32 PM CDT Updated: Jun 11, 2012 8:37 PM CDT
By Patrick Vaughn


The Tropics are quiet at this point.

However, for the past few days, several of the forecast models have hinted at the possibility of tropical development in the Bay of Campeche. At this point, we are just in watch and wait mode.

The usually reliable European does spin up two tropical lows with in the next ten days.

The first low (please see Graphic #1), develops in the Bay of Campeche (SW Gulf of Mexico) on Sunday, June 17th and then treks it westward into Mexico.

The second low (please see Graphic #2), develops in the Bay of Campeche around Wednesday, June 20th and then treks it to the north and then westward towards South Texas after the 24th.

Note: This is model data and PURE SPECULATION. This can and will probably change over the next several days and is not set in stone. It is quite possible that nothing develops. So, do not be alarmed. This is just an attempt at giving you the earliest possible information.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormpetrol:

Looks like torsades de pointes degenerating into ventricular fibrillation = dead! " the chart that is " :)
are you a cardiologist ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I was looking for that the other day!

Told you guys it would show up eventually, lol.

Thanks for posting.

no problem, just thought about it off the top of my head because I was bored. :P
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
666. wpb
Quoting cyclonekid:
I miss these WU graphics. I think it helps when you have the history and the forecast on the same map.

was not a hurricane for s.fla yellow icon is wrong 45 mph ts for s fla keys
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ncstorm:
right turn..Watch out Florida..Hurricane

My buddy in Estero,Florida would like this scenario!! But he is a sicko!
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4576
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Current storm chart.

I was looking for that the other day!

Told you guys it would show up eventually, lol.

Thanks for posting.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Current storm chart.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Maybe he is unaware of that change in status for the NOGAPS.
Maybe doc doesn't have a Facebook?

But seriously, who changes the NOGAPS's status? That doesn't really make sense. It's still a global model, it's still far more reliable than climatology, and it does have skill. There's a difference between a model being less reliable relative to the other models and a model not being reliable at all.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Oz has it goin' on!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
www.solarham.net




GEOMAGNETIC STORM ALERT:

A minor Geomagnetic Storm (KP=5) is now in progress due to a south tilting Bz component.

Be on the lookout for Aurora at high latitudes.
Stay tuned to SolarHam.com for the latest information.

Added 6/11/2012 @ 23:55 UTC

G1 Geomagnetic Storm / Aurora Watch

The Bz Component of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field

(IMF) is currently tipped south and this may help trigger Aurora at very high latitudes. Disturbed Geomagnetic conditions will be possible this evening.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
659. MTWX
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


He is drunk lol! What is Don doing?


LOL! Can't watch from work, so I'm missing out! :(
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ncstorm:
UKMet is perfoming better than the GFS and look at the NOGAPs right there with the GFS..



NCEP/EMC Global Model Performance
Yeah I mentioned the UKMET outperforming the GFS for 500mb heights, but 500mb heights aren't the only thing we use models for, although they may be the single most important parameter.

About the NOGAPS, it's consistently the worst throughout that time period for both the northern and southern hemisphere.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TomTaylor:
I agree with the list, and especially with the bold part. ECMWF is usually rather reluctant to sniff out a storm beyond a week out, meanwhile the GFS is more aggressive and will often be the first to sniff out a storm, although it's aggressiveness can result in it forming too many storms. I also find the ECMWF to be more reliable with track than the GFS. Meanwhile, looking at the other models, the UKMET has a pretty poor resolution so it isn't too good at finding potential areas of development, however, it is one of the best at track and that poor resolution keeps it from being overly aggressive. Finally, the CMC and NOGAPS are both too aggressive and develop too many storms. However, one difference between development on the two models is the CMC seems to not only develop too many but it over-intensifies them, whereas the NOGAPS's develops even more systems, but its poor resolution means it keeps storms fairly weak most of the time. As far as track, the CMC and NOGAPS are both pretty unreliable, but I'd have to say the CMC is better, except when it bombs out a storm when it shouldn't (because then the steering layer is dramatically altered).


Outside of the Tropics

1. ECMWF
2. GFS
3. UKMET
4. CMC
5. NOGAPS

Outside of the tropics, the ECMWF is definitely the best as well. Between the GFS and UKMET it is rather close, however. Model verification actually reveals that the UKMET is better at predicting 500mb heights, however, with the finer resolution, longer range, and more model runs per day, I find the GFS to be a more useful model. Then comes the CMC which isn't far behind for fourth place, and finally the NOGAPS which is pretty far behind the other four global models.


Looks like torsades de pointes degenerating into ventricular fibrillation = dead! " the chart that is " :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
654. MTWX
This thing hasn't been too windy... no not at all..

Check out the baseball hail from the cells in TX too!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MTWX:


No problem bud! Been following Oz for the last couple of years... good stuff!


He is drunk lol! What is Don doing?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 702 - 652

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.