Damaging rains bust the drought in portions of Florida Panhandle

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on June 11, 2012

Share this Blog
23
+

Flood waters are receding in the rain-drenched Florida Panhandle and coastal Alabama today, where prodigious rains from a moist, tropical airmass interacting with a stalled front brought flooding that caused at least $20 million in damage to the Pensacola, Florida area. The most remarkable rains fell in West Pensacola, where 21.70" was recorded over the weekend. Pensacola airport received 13.13 inches of rain on Saturday, the city's second-highest 1-day rainfall total in recorded history. The only greater 1-day rainfall occurred on October 5, 1934, when Tropical Storm Nine brought 15.29" of rain to the city. Satellite loops of atmospheric precipitable water show that this weekend's heavy rains were caused by a flow of very moist tropical air that originated over the warm waters of the tropical Eastern Pacific and flowed northwards across Mexico and Central America to the Panhandle of Florida. This moist airmass has been replaced by relatively dry air over the Gulf, which should limit rainfall amounts today to the 1 - 2 inch range. A cold front expected to arrive on Tuesday will serve as the focus to bring additional rains of 1 - 2 inches per day to portions of the region Tuesday and Wednesday. Before this weekend's mighty rainstorm, the Florida Panhandle was experiencing severe to extreme drought, with 12 - 15 inches of rain needed to pull the region out of drought. This weekend's rains have busted the drought the extreme western Panhandle, but surrounding regions of Alabama, Georgia, and Florida still need 10+ inches of rain.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall for the Florida Panhandle from this weekend's rain storm.


Figure 2. Amount of precipitation needed to bust drought conditions over the U.S., as of June 2, 2012. A Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDI) of -0.5 is considered the boundary of where a drought exists. The 12 - 15 inches of rain that fell across the extreme western Florida Panhandle and coastal Alabama over the weekend were enough to bust the drought in those regions. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Some rainfall amounts from the storm, from 7 pm CDT Thu June 7, through 3 am CDT Sunday June 10, from the latest NOAA Storm Summary:

...ALABAMA...
TILLMANS CORNER 4.3 WNW 10.77"
GRAND BAY 0.6 NW 10.03"
MOBILE DOWNTOWN ARPT 8.97"

...FLORIDA...
WEST PENSACOLA 10.9 SW 21.70"
PENSACOLA RGNL ARPT 15.08"
MILTON 10.9 SSW 14.42"
PENSACOLA 3.8 N 13.88"
JACKSONVILLE 11.6 ENE 4.31"

...GEORGIA...
AUGUSTA/DANIEL FIELD 4.08"
WARNER ROBINS AFB 1.95"
VALDOSTA RGNL ARPT 1.50"

...LOUISIANA...
PONCHATOULA 11.8 E 5.64"
SLIDELL 4.29"
LACOMBE 1.4 N 3.73"
BATON ROUGE 2.5 E 2.26"
NEW ORLEANS/LAKEFRONT 2.13"

...MISSISSIPPI...
PASCAGOULA 7.50"
GULFPORT-BILOXI 6.52"
PASS CHRISTIAN 3.5 NE 4.69"

The Atlantic is quiet
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic today. The NOGAPS model is predicting formation of a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical depression in the Western Caribbean by Sunday, but none of the other models is going along with this idea. We could get something developing in the waters offshore of North Carolina late this week, along the edge of a cold front expected to move of the U.S. East Coast on Tuesday - Wednesday. The GFS model has suggested something could develop in this region in several of its recent runs.

Jeff Masters

flood (megulfbreeze)
Out the front window as our house flooded
flood
Flash (mobal)
I decided to turn around
Flash

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 752 - 702

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18Blog Index

Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Well if does come about I hope it's just a rain maker for him. :)


I think he must be a sicko,told me he was out dancing in Hurricane Charlie and winds of 70-80mph at his location
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5234
I think I'm getting too old,all I wanna do is sleep
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5234
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
My buddy in Estero,FL will be very happy if NOGAPS comes to fruition,as I think he is the only florida resident screaming drought!!


Well if does come about I hope it's just a rain maker for him. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nigel20:

Lol...hey Joe!


Hi Nigel, how goes it?
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5234
Quoting cheaterwon:
Thank you AthomeinTX you rock.


Awe. You're welcome. Not a very scientific answer I'm afraid. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


It was a wannabe.....lol

Lol...hey Joe!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nigel20:
No more 93E...

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 120502
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON JUN 11 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



It was a wannabe.....lol
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5234
No more 93E...

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 120502
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON JUN 11 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
The NOGAPS seems to be doing the exact opposite. Taking what looks like a strong storm into SW FL and riding it counter clockwise up the length of the state. Link
My buddy in Estero,FL will be very happy if NOGAPS comes to fruition,as I think he is the only florida resident screaming drought!!
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5234
Thank you AthomeinTX you rock.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
...the Death star has cleared the planets moon..



"I sense something, a presence I've not felt since......."
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


outflow out front
this may blow itself out


that is impressive!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5234
The NOGAPS seems to be doing the exact opposite. Taking what looks like a strong storm into SW FL and riding it counter clockwise up the length of the state. Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting allancalderini:
Hi Nigel what up?

I'm good!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cheaterwon:
does anyone know what the new models are doing this AM?


Best I can tell, the GFS sends a low into New Orleans then tracks it clockwise the length of Florida from the north. Then pops a low or something off the SW FL coast at the end of the run.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nigel20:

What's up allan?
Hi Nigel what up?
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4401
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
According to the 00Z GFS thus far, Carlotta develops in the East Pacific in 48 hours, and we get "Chris" off the East Coast in 72.
But from what our Chris will form?
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4401
Quoting allancalderini:
I actually like them they give us something to watch sos I am cool that they name these things.

What's up allan?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
HPC

MID-LEVEL TROUGH/SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES/CAROLINAS LATE TUESDAY...
PREFERENCE: 12Z CANADIAN/00Z GFS COMPROMISE WITH AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE

THE 12Z CANADIAN BECOMES A DEEP OUTLIER AT THE 700 HPA LEVEL WITH
THIS SYSTEM OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS BY FRIDAY MORNING...LEADING TO
A DEEPER SURFACE LOW. BY FRIDAY MORNING...THE 18Z BIAS-CORRECTED
NAEFS MEAN BECOMES THE MOST WESTERLY WITH ITS SURFACE LOW...WHILE
THE 12Z CANADIAN/00Z NAM ARE THE MOST EASTERLY. THE 12Z ECMWF IS
BY FAR THE WEAKEST. THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS
GREATER DISPERSION THAN THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...BUT IS
CLOSEST TO THE 00Z GFS/12Z CANADIAN SURFACE POSITIONS. SINCE THE
CANADIAN CAN BECOME TOO STRONG WITH UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS...IT IS
PROBABLY TOO DEEP. HOWEVER...INCREASING RIDGING TO ITS WEST AND
SIGNIFICANT SEPARATION BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE DEEP CYCLONE
NEAR 40N 53W COULD LEAD TO A STRONGER SOLUTION. ANY CONVECTIVE
FLARE UP NEAR ITS CENTER COULD LEAD TO A STRONGER SOLUTION AT THE
SURFACE OR ALOFT...WHICH IS POSSIBLE AS IT CROSSES THE GULF STREAM
LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY. THE PREFERENCE IS FOR A 12Z
CANADIAN/00Z GFS COMPROMISE WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONSIDERING
THE SPREAD SEEN IN THE GUIDANCE.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting yqt1001:


I meant in general the storms like Alberto, Cindy, Bret, Jose, Gert, Franklin etc.
I actually like them they give us something to watch sos I am cool that they name these things.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4401
does anyone know what the new models are doing this AM?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good evening everyone!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

For some reason...I don't seem to care about TS Guchol in the W-Pac...

I must be guilty to being biased to the Atlantic....
LOL I think we all are
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5234

Ugly trajectory.... No way to install hurricane panels


Member Since: Posts: Comments:


outflow out front
this may blow itself out
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


whats the reason for the "fly" again?


its because of the position
of the geostationary sat's position in orbit
over earth and all images are stitch together
to get N hemisphrere image

it gives me a much better prespective of whats happening and will happen later down the road
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
840
WUUS54 KLIX 120410
SVRLIX
LAC117-MSC109-120515-
/O.NEW.KLIX.SV.W.0121.120612T0410Z-120612T0515Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1110 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WASHINGTON PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...FRANKLINTON...BOGALUSA...
PEARL RIVER COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...POPLARVILLE...PICAYUNE...

* UNTIL 1215 AM CDT

* AT 1108 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 43 MILES NORTH OF FRANKLINTON TO 27 MILES NORTHEAST OF VARNADO
TO 41 MILES NORTHEAST OF POPLARVILLE...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 22 MILES NORTHEAST OF MCCOMB TO 12 MILES EAST OF COLUMBIA TO
NEW AUGUSTA...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 45 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
CROSSROADS...MCNEIL AND ENON

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT
TUESDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128659
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


whats the reason for the "fly" again?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128659
...the Death star has cleared the planets moon..

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128659
Quoting MTWX:


Kinda curious myself...
yeah. Too bad it's still a couple hours away from that. It flared massively earlier when it hit the humid, saturated, warm air in southern Alabama. (Of course it completely fizzled along the North Georgia border.)

Might be interesting, might not. Either way Pensacola and area are getting more rain tonight. :(
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
According to the 00Z GFS thus far, Carlotta develops in the East Pacific in 48 hours, and we get "Chris" off the East Coast in 72.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
716. DDR
Good evening
Just under 4 inches of rain have fallen at my location in Trinidad in the past 2 days,rivers are swollen and there is more heavy rains to come.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
To add to comment 712...I admit some of the W-Pac storm names are funny to me at times...like Typhoon LionRock in Sept 2010....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
713. MTWX
Quoting dogsgomoo:
Curious to see what this fast moving derecho will do when it hits the open, empty, and warmed gulf waters. What usually happens? Does the remenant energy fizzle out?


Kinda curious myself...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Appears to be doing ok

For some reason...I don't seem to care about TS Guchol in the W-Pac...

I must be guilty to being biased to the Atlantic....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sunlinepr:


That line thru MS,LA,ALABAMA looks like a outflow boundry like dry air intrusion in a hurricane or TS. Is it justme being in my own small world?
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5234
Curious to see what this fast moving derecho will do when it hits the open, empty, and warmed gulf waters. What usually happens? Does the remenant energy fizzle out?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
709. MTWX
Looks like it will make it's way to the beach!

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
It seems awful quiet on the blog here tonight....not many comments being left...yawn...


down time

or

wait watch see

my fav.

hurry up and wait
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Appears to be doing ok
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5234
706. MTWX
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
It seems awful quiet on the blog here tonight....not many comments being left...yawn...


Guess the night shift decided to go to bed early...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It seems awful quiet on the blog here tonight....not many comments being left...yawn...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


I dont know if you know this but although JTWC has upgraded to Tropical Storm,the oficial agency in that part of the world (JMA) has not upgraded yet. As soon as they upgrade,it will have the name Guchol.

I know, but you might as well call it so, because it'll eventually be called Guchol tomorrow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good night everyone... Will be interesting to see what the models will make up tomorrow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

TS Guchol


I dont know if you know this but although JTWC has upgraded to Tropical Storm,the oficial agency in that part of the world (JMA) has not upgraded yet. As soon as they upgrade,it will have the name Guchol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 752 - 702

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.