Damaging rains bust the drought in portions of Florida Panhandle

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on June 11, 2012

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Flood waters are receding in the rain-drenched Florida Panhandle and coastal Alabama today, where prodigious rains from a moist, tropical airmass interacting with a stalled front brought flooding that caused at least $20 million in damage to the Pensacola, Florida area. The most remarkable rains fell in West Pensacola, where 21.70" was recorded over the weekend. Pensacola airport received 13.13 inches of rain on Saturday, the city's second-highest 1-day rainfall total in recorded history. The only greater 1-day rainfall occurred on October 5, 1934, when Tropical Storm Nine brought 15.29" of rain to the city. Satellite loops of atmospheric precipitable water show that this weekend's heavy rains were caused by a flow of very moist tropical air that originated over the warm waters of the tropical Eastern Pacific and flowed northwards across Mexico and Central America to the Panhandle of Florida. This moist airmass has been replaced by relatively dry air over the Gulf, which should limit rainfall amounts today to the 1 - 2 inch range. A cold front expected to arrive on Tuesday will serve as the focus to bring additional rains of 1 - 2 inches per day to portions of the region Tuesday and Wednesday. Before this weekend's mighty rainstorm, the Florida Panhandle was experiencing severe to extreme drought, with 12 - 15 inches of rain needed to pull the region out of drought. This weekend's rains have busted the drought the extreme western Panhandle, but surrounding regions of Alabama, Georgia, and Florida still need 10+ inches of rain.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall for the Florida Panhandle from this weekend's rain storm.


Figure 2. Amount of precipitation needed to bust drought conditions over the U.S., as of June 2, 2012. A Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDI) of -0.5 is considered the boundary of where a drought exists. The 12 - 15 inches of rain that fell across the extreme western Florida Panhandle and coastal Alabama over the weekend were enough to bust the drought in those regions. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Some rainfall amounts from the storm, from 7 pm CDT Thu June 7, through 3 am CDT Sunday June 10, from the latest NOAA Storm Summary:

...ALABAMA...
TILLMANS CORNER 4.3 WNW 10.77"
GRAND BAY 0.6 NW 10.03"
MOBILE DOWNTOWN ARPT 8.97"

...FLORIDA...
WEST PENSACOLA 10.9 SW 21.70"
PENSACOLA RGNL ARPT 15.08"
MILTON 10.9 SSW 14.42"
PENSACOLA 3.8 N 13.88"
JACKSONVILLE 11.6 ENE 4.31"

...GEORGIA...
AUGUSTA/DANIEL FIELD 4.08"
WARNER ROBINS AFB 1.95"
VALDOSTA RGNL ARPT 1.50"

...LOUISIANA...
PONCHATOULA 11.8 E 5.64"
SLIDELL 4.29"
LACOMBE 1.4 N 3.73"
BATON ROUGE 2.5 E 2.26"
NEW ORLEANS/LAKEFRONT 2.13"

...MISSISSIPPI...
PASCAGOULA 7.50"
GULFPORT-BILOXI 6.52"
PASS CHRISTIAN 3.5 NE 4.69"

The Atlantic is quiet
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic today. The NOGAPS model is predicting formation of a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical depression in the Western Caribbean by Sunday, but none of the other models is going along with this idea. We could get something developing in the waters offshore of North Carolina late this week, along the edge of a cold front expected to move of the U.S. East Coast on Tuesday - Wednesday. The GFS model has suggested something could develop in this region in several of its recent runs.

Jeff Masters

flood (megulfbreeze)
Out the front window as our house flooded
flood
Flash (mobal)
I decided to turn around
Flash

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Quoting StormTracker2K:



I think these forecasters in Houston are worse than the Tampa mets as any Tropical wave or area of low pressure is going to take a lot of time to come together and if it did it would take atleast 9 to 10 days for this moisture to reach FL and another few days to reach as far west as TX but that is an big IF. As this moisture may never make it that far west. I would also beaware of them saying it might rain as numerous times they have done that and it never happens.



Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Euro is much further west with this "potential system".

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Houston's piping in

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
454 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012

.DISCUSSION...
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST TEXAS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...ALTHOUGH SOME SLIGHT RIDGE BUILDING WILL OCCUR
ALOFT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK
A TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH SE TX FROM THE GULF...

...WITH THE MODELS CONTINUING A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL KEEP
THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
FOR WEDNESDAY. SLIGHT RIDGE BUILDING WILL HELP LOWER THE RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS
WERE INDICATING SOME ACTIVITY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. THE GFS AND
ECMWF ALSO INDICATED THAT A TROPICAL WAVE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
THE COASTAL AREAS FROM EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.


now its just a matter of where it may go?
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Houston's piping in

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
454 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012

.DISCUSSION...
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST TEXAS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...ALTHOUGH SOME SLIGHT RIDGE BUILDING WILL OCCUR
ALOFT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK
A TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH SE TX FROM THE GULF...

...WITH THE MODELS CONTINUING A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL KEEP
THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
FOR WEDNESDAY. SLIGHT RIDGE BUILDING WILL HELP LOWER THE RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS
WERE INDICATING SOME ACTIVITY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. THE GFS AND
ECMWF ALSO INDICATED THAT A TROPICAL WAVE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
THE COASTAL AREAS FROM EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.



I think these forecasters in Houston are worse than the Tampa mets as any Tropical wave or area of low pressure is going to take a lot of time to come together and if it did it would take atleast 9 to 10 days for this moisture to reach FL and another few days to reach as far west as TX but that is an big IF. As this moisture may never make it that far west. I would also beaware of them saying it might rain as numerous times they have done that and it never happens.

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CMC=:)
Quoting ncstorm:
00Z CMC..

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Houston's piping in

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
454 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012

.DISCUSSION...
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST TEXAS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...ALTHOUGH SOME SLIGHT RIDGE BUILDING WILL OCCUR
ALOFT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK
A TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH SE TX FROM THE GULF...

...WITH THE MODELS CONTINUING A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL KEEP
THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
FOR WEDNESDAY. SLIGHT RIDGE BUILDING WILL HELP LOWER THE RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS
WERE INDICATING SOME ACTIVITY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. THE GFS AND
ECMWF ALSO INDICATED THAT A TROPICAL WAVE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
THE COASTAL AREAS FROM EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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00Z CMC..

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Geez... can't stay to chat right now... maybe later...
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Quoting mtyspider:
Just for the NOGAPS killers this afternoon. I will include this recipe

CROW CASSEROLE
1/2 dozen crow breasts
1 qt. sauerkraut
1/2 dozen strips bacon
1/3 c. chopped onion

In skillet brown the crow breasts, then place them on a 1 1/2" layer of sauerkraut in bottom of a casserole. Cover each piece of meat with a strip of bacon and sprinkle the onion over them. Cover the breast with another layer of sauerkraut and pour sauerkraut juice over it. Bake two hours in oven heated to 350 degrees.

Just in case......



LOL..made my morning!!



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Quoting weatherh98:


That's the night see breeze from the water bein warmer than the land. Thanks for that, cool to see!


You're welcome. :) Looks like that stuff moving down from the north is going to worse if it holds together.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Thunder storms moving in off the gulf.



That's the night see breeze from the water bein warmer than the land. Thanks for that, cool to see!
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Wow it came through last night and I didn't hear it, oh well round number 2 should be here around noon
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.........Good Morning everyone
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39153
Morning all.
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Good morning... End of the 0z GGEM run



Not much else interesting on the models last night.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7836
Rex block? Anyway, looks like things might get rocky coming up.

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
408 AM EDT TUE JUN 12 2012

VALID 12Z SAT JUN 16 2012 - 12Z TUE JUN 19 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK...

A STRENGTHENING POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY NEAR 45N 140W SHOULD YIELD
INCREASING TROUGHING ACROSS THE WEST ROUGHLY NEAR THE 110TH
MERIDIAN. MEANWHILE...A REX BLOCK IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE FROM
THE 60TH TO THE 80TH MERIDIAN BETWEEN LATE THIS WEEK AND EARLY TO
MID NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...THIS PATTERN FITS THE 00Z GFS AS WELL AS
THE 00Z GEFS/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS THE BEST. BY SUNDAY...THE
00Z UKMET GETS SWIFT WITH ITS SYSTEM PROGRESSION ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA...SO DID NOT CONSIDER IT VIABLE. EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE 00Z
ECMWF OUTPACES THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE WITH ITS TROUGH
PROGRESSION INTO THE PLAINS...WHICH DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY PER THE
AMPLIFIED LOOK OF THE UPPER PATTERN EXPECTED. PER THE ABOVE...THE
PREFERENCE WAS A 50/50 MIX OF THE 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF THROUGH SUNDAY
BEFORE SWITCHING TO AN EVEN BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION THEREAFTER.

THIS PATTERN FAVORS A LATE SEASON COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FLORIDA STRAITS AS THE REX BLOCK
RETROGRADES. BETWEEN SUNDAY AND TUESDAY...A MID-LEVEL CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO PASS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE EAST COAST...FAVORING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DISTURBED WEATHER/A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR THE TAIL OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.
RIDGING EXPECTED TO EXIST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
NORMALLY LEADS TO DISTURBED WEATHER ACROSS THE TROPICAL EASTERN
PACIFIC SOUTH OF MEXICO...AND THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOWS TWO PROSPECTS FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.

THE MAIN STORY FOR THE LOWER 48 IS A POTENTIALLY DEEP/DYNAMIC
CYCLONE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR/JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER EARLY NEXT WEEK...DEVELOPING A DRY LINE ACROSS
THE PLAINS...WHICH SHOULD BE MORE DEFINED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
STRONGEST. THE LATEST WORD FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/
INDICATES SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THIS SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED.
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Thunder storms moving in off the gulf.

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Humm realized

I just Hope i dont have to use the recipe myself!!!!!
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Just for the NOGAPS killers this afternoon. I will include this recipe

CROW CASSEROLE
1/2 dozen crow breasts
1 qt. sauerkraut
1/2 dozen strips bacon
1/3 c. chopped onion

In skillet brown the crow breasts, then place them on a 1 1/2" layer of sauerkraut in bottom of a casserole. Cover each piece of meat with a strip of bacon and sprinkle the onion over them. Cover the breast with another layer of sauerkraut and pour sauerkraut juice over it. Bake two hours in oven heated to 350 degrees.

Just in case......

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Latest Weather Observations for Rottnest Island
Currently at 63km/h(32kts) gusts at 82km/h(44kts). Rottnest Island is off the coast of Perth.

Latest Weather Observations for Cape Naturaliste. Cape Naturaliste is SSW of Perth and is going to cope the brunt of this system.

Perth ABC radio Link .

This System will only last 4hrs with storm force winds rain and hail.

Latest Synoptic map.


Weather Underground PWS IWAGREEN2
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Meanwhile, it's nice and cool here tonight...er this morning. Lol

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Quoting TXCWC:


lol...of course. :) I actually miss alot from time to time myself. That is actually why I love this blog, when I or someone else "misses it" we are sure to hear about it! Many knowledgable posters here (Levi32, ect...)whom I have learned alot from just by reading.


That's what I love about this place too. :)
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780. TXCWC
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Yep. Things look like they're coming together. With the added caveat of course. Nice model analysis. Guess I could've noticed the low in the BOC when I was talking about them. Lol. Nothing gets by me.


lol...of course. :) I actually miss alot from time to time myself. That is actually why I love this blog, when I or someone else "misses it" we are sure to hear about it! Many knowledgable posters here (Levi32, ect...)whom I have learned alot from just by reading.
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779. TXCWC
Quoting mtyspider:
If we get something in the nw carribean a whole lot of people will eat crow, cause NOGAPS was butchered yesterdar afternoon.


Ya, the chances of eatting crow go way up if only relying on 1 model's forecast. I only get really interested when multiple models start to say the same thing as tonight's appear to be doing. I however am NOT saying anything WILL develop (I personally would have to see multiple run consistancy before saying that)...just posting what the models appear to be saying right now. :)
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If we get something in the nw carribean a whole lot of people will eat crow, cause NOGAPS was butchered yesterdar afternoon.
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Quoting TXCWC:
While of course things can change by tomorrow night, for now, there is abundant model data saying that the Gulf and or the Bay of Campeche will have to be watched for potential development in the next 7-10 days


Yep. Things look like they're coming together. With the added caveat of course. Nice model analysis. Guess I could've noticed the low in the BOC when I was talking about them. Lol. Nothing gets by me.
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776. TXCWC
While of course things can change by tomorrow night, for now, there is abundant model data saying that the Gulf and or the Bay of Campeche will have to be watched for potential development in the next 7-10 days
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775. TXCWC
0Z OPERATIONAL MODELS all appear to be showing a Low moving into the BAY of Campeche or GULF either from the NW Carribean or Pacific side within the next 9 to 10 days. CMC AND NOGAPS currently showing a storm while GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN and EURO are hinting at "something."
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774. TXCWC
0Z CMC/GGEM SHOW EXACT SAME THING AS GFS ( and GFS Ensemble MEAN) AND POSSIBLY EURO RUN. Low spins up by day 9/10 in NW Carribean which then crosses Yucatan and into Gulf/Bay of Campeche area

CMC Day 8/9


CMC Day 9/10
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MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
320 AM EDT TUE JUN 12 2012

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
WINDS AND SEAS AREA EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
UNTIL LATE FRI WHEN A BUILDING RIDGE OVER GA/AL WILL BUTT
AGAINST TROUGHING OFF THE FL E COAST...INCREASING THE PRES
GRADIENT OVER THE NE GULF. THERE IS NO REASON TO STRAY FROM A
BLEND OF CONTINUITY AND THE 00Z GFS THROUGH THU. BY FRI...A
BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF WAS PREFERRED FOR THE PATTERN
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND ADJACENT WATERS. SEE THE SW N
ATLC SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...
THE 0130 UTC AND 0310 UTC ASCAT PASSES SHOW THE AREAL EXTENT OF
THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN HAS SHRANK SINCE THIS
TIME YESTERDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
HAS WEAKENED. RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL BE THE DOMINANT
DRIVER OF THE TRADE WINDS THROUGH SAT. THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
69W WILL PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY TONIGHT AND SLOW
ITS WESTWARD PROGRESS STARTING WED AS THE BUILDING TROUGHING
OVER FL AND THE BAHAMAS BEGINS TO DRAW THE WAVE ON A MORE
NORTHWESTERLY TRACK. A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF IS PREFERRED
WITH THIS TROUGHING AND THE GENERAL PATTERN N OF THE CARIBBEAN.
SEE THE SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS. THIS BUILDING TROUGHING WILL
ENCROACH UPON THE RIDGING STEMMING FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLC...DIMINISHING TRADES A NOTCH ON FRI AND SAT. THE TROPICAL
WAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THU AND
FRI. MOST OF THE MODELS TAKE IT INTO THE YUCATAN ON FRI...BUT
THE NOGAPS DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW PRES SYSTEM AND SENDS IT
NORTHWARD TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON SAT. THIS IS AN OUTLIER
SOLUTION.

SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W...
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLC HAS BEEN COMPROMISED
BY A DEEPENING...RETROGRADING SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TO ITS E. THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO. THEY DIFFER WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO PASS OF THE MID ATLC COAST WED...WITH THE ECMWF
DEEPER AND GENERALLY MORE EASTERLY WITH THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW
BY THU THAN THE GFS. THE CMC IS EVEN DEEPER AND MORE EASTERLY
THAN THE ECMWF WHILE THE NOGAPS IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER THAN THE
OTHER MODELS. THE UKMET LOOKS LIKE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF...HOLDING A 1011 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM NEAR 30N70W SAT
MORNING. THE GEFS MEAN IS ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS LOW
POSITION AND STRENGTH AT THAT TIME...WITH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN SHOWING A MORE WASHED OUT...WEAKER PATTERN. HOWEVER...THE
MODELS ALSO SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WAVE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
TRAILING THIS LOW. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE SC
COAST WED AND LIE N OF THE BAHAMAS FRI EVENING. THE UKMET IS
DEEPER AND MORE WESTERLY THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THIS LOW.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ITS SOLUTION HERE. THERE IS STILL
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS PATTERN...SO ADJUSTMENTS WILL
BE MADE TOWARD A ECMWF/GFS BLEND OVER THE SW N ATLC.

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772. TXCWC
0Z EURO and GFS (and GFS Ensemble Mean - map NOT posted below) still hinting at SOMETHING in the Gulf/Bay of Campeche in 10 day timeframe. GFS spins up a low in NW Carribean, moves it into the Yucatan and eventually into Bay of Campeche. EURO shows either the low coming from either the NW Carribean across the Yucatan as well OR from the Pacific side across into the Bay as well (difficult to tell for sure on Euro). THE IMPORTANT THING RIGHT NOW IS NOT SO MUCH IF MODELS ARE SHOWING A STORM OR NOT BUT THAT THEY STILL CONTINUE TO SEE "SOMETHING" IN THE SAME AREA IN SAME TIMEFRAME.

GFS Day 9


GFS DAY 10 (circulation disrupted but 1006 pressure remnant still there in the BAY)


EURO DAY 10 (note the 1007 Low in the BAY in almost the exact same place as the GFS)
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771. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
TROPICAL STORM GUCHOL (T1204)
15:00 PM JST June 12 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Near Caroline Islands

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Guchol (1004 hPa) located at 9.5N 142.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
================
60 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 10.7N 139.8E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Sea East Of Philippines
48 HRS: 12.1N 136.4E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Sea East Of Philippines
72 HRS: 13.7N 132.7E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - Sea East Of Philippines

Tiyan, Guam NWS
===============

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR FAIS AND ULITHI IN YAP STATE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR YAP
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Quoting AussieStorm:
I'll be back in a few hours. Current time here in Sydney is 4:45pm. Current time in Perth Western Australia is 2:45pm. Severe storm number 2 is due in about 5hrs.


Thanks Aussie.
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Quoting TomTaylor:
I do. Try Allan Huffman's GGEM/CMC Page.


Thanks Tom. :)
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Euro takes something NE in the Caribbean then turns it NW in The GOM weakens it and heads it toward New Orleans at a similar time to the GFS.



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I'll be back in a few hours. Current time here in Sydney is 4:45pm. Current time in Perth Western Australia is 2:45pm. Severe storm number 2 is due in about 5hrs.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:
CMC seems to spin up something off the East coast but I can't tell if it's tropical in nature. At the end of the run shows a storm in the GOM. Does anyone have a link for the CMC that shows the Caribbean? I can't tell where the GOM storm spins up.



I do. Try Allan Huffman's GGEM/CMC Page.
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Yasi restoration work targets Mission Beach

Yes, the restoration work is still ongoing.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Sounds like a rough night. Hope everyone comes through ok.

I'll have updates during the night and again in the morning.
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Southern and western WA on stand-by for another battering

Perth is living up to its title as Australia's windiest capital city, with another deep low set to bring yet another blast of destructive winds to southern and western parts of the state tonight.

This region has endured some incredible conditions in the past week, with tornadoes striking suburbs of Perth and York in the Wheat Belt last week. Then on Sunday one of the most destructive low pressure systems seen in decades tracked south past the west coast during the afternoon hours, producing wind gusts that were the equivalent of those that would be experienced a Category 2 Tropical Cyclone. Cape Naturaliste had a wind gust of 146km/h on Sunday afternoon, which was the highest wind gust on record at that site and comparable with the 150km/h wind gusts recorded at Albany with Tropical Cyclone Alby in 1978. This low was not a tropical cyclone, as its formation was due to its interaction with cold air arriving from the southwest, although the winds associated with it were similar to those that would be seen with a tropical system.

The next low that is due to hit southern and western coasts of WA is going to near the levels seen on Sunday, although probably fall marginally short in terms of peak wind speeds. However destructive gusts to 125km/h are still possible, which is more than enough to cause damage to houses and properties. Trees that were weakened with Sunday's wild winds are also going to be more prone to falling, which will make hazardous conditions for driving and may also cause more power outages.

Weather conditions are going to start to deteriorate along the west coast from mid-afternoon onwards, with the worst of the weather expected in Perth between 6pm tonight and 3am tomorrow morning. Heavy rainfall should also kick off in the capital during the evening, with the potential for 25-50mm falls in the capitals. Falls upwards of 50mm are likely further south, for towns such as Bunbury, Bussleton and Margaret River.

The other noticeable feature of this weather system is going to be large and dangerous surf, along with what is known as a 'storm surge'. Gale to storm force winds are likely to drive water onto the coastline, generating higher than normal tides and flooding of low lying coastal regions this evening. Of particular risk are places like Geographe Bay, which are more susceptible to tonight's storm surge due to the direction of the winds funnelling into the bay.

A severe weather warning was issued today at 11:10am WST for widespread destructive winds and abnormally high tides. The warning area covers those living south of a line from Geraldton to Laverton to Forrest, which includes Perth.

Looking ahead, conditions will become calmer during Wednesday as the low moves into the Bight. The main feature in then will be a cold air mass in the wake of this system. Perth can expect to reach around 17 degrees on both Wednesday and Thursday, some of the coldest weather since last winter.


© Weatherzone 2012
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It would seem the SE is having a rough one too. On top of the rains they had.

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Quoting AussieStorm:
SW Western Australia is getting ready for round 2.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING


WEATHER SITUATION
An intense storm is expected to hit the south of the state from late Tuesday
afternoon and evening. This storm will be of similar strength to the system that
affected the southwest on Sunday though this storm will also affect the south
coast significantly and extend further inland.

For people in parts of WA south of a line from Jurien Bay to Narrogin to Eyre.
This includes people in, near or between Jurien Bay, Perth, Mandurah, Bunbury,
Busselton, Margaret River, Bridgetown, Albany, Katanning, Narrogin and
Esperance:
This storm is expected to cause
WIDESPREAD DANGEROUS WINDS in excess of 125
kilometres per hour
(77 miles per hour) which could cause
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE OR DESTRUCTION TO HOMES
OR PROPERTY.
DANGEROUS WINDS are expected to develop in the west from evening
and extend as far east as Hopetoun by midnight and to Eyre by about 8 am
Wednesday. Winds should begin to ease from the west during Wednesday morning.


Sounds like a rough night. Hope everyone comes through ok.
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SW Western Australia is getting ready for round 2.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING


WEATHER SITUATION
An intense storm is expected to hit the south of the state from late Tuesday
afternoon and evening. This storm will be of similar strength to the system that
affected the southwest on Sunday though this storm will also affect the south
coast significantly and extend further inland.

For people in parts of WA south of a line from Jurien Bay to Narrogin to Eyre.
This includes people in, near or between Jurien Bay, Perth, Mandurah, Bunbury,
Busselton, Margaret River, Bridgetown, Albany, Katanning, Narrogin and
Esperance:
This storm is expected to cause
WIDESPREAD DANGEROUS WINDS in excess of 125
kilometres per hour
(77 miles per hour) which could cause
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE OR DESTRUCTION TO HOMES
OR PROPERTY.
DANGEROUS WINDS are expected to develop in the west from evening
and extend as far east as Hopetoun by midnight and to Eyre by about 8 am
Wednesday. Winds should begin to ease from the west during Wednesday morning.
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
I am easily entertained


lol me too. :)
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CMC seems to spin up something off the East coast but I can't tell if it's tropical in nature. At the end of the run shows a storm in the GOM. Does anyone have a link for the CMC that shows the Caribbean? I can't tell where the GOM storm spins up.



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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
good nite all c u 2morrow

I'm off as well....good night everyone!
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good nite all c u 2morrow
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why are my comments stuck at 854?
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I am easily entertained
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Im watching the fat bald guy eat donkey meat in Bejing China lol
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Well if does come about I hope it's just a rain maker for him. :)


I think he must be a sicko,told me he was out dancing in Hurricane Charlie and winds of 70-80mph at his location
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.