Damaging rains bust the drought in portions of Florida Panhandle

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on June 11, 2012

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Flood waters are receding in the rain-drenched Florida Panhandle and coastal Alabama today, where prodigious rains from a moist, tropical airmass interacting with a stalled front brought flooding that caused at least $20 million in damage to the Pensacola, Florida area. The most remarkable rains fell in West Pensacola, where 21.70" was recorded over the weekend. Pensacola airport received 13.13 inches of rain on Saturday, the city's second-highest 1-day rainfall total in recorded history. The only greater 1-day rainfall occurred on October 5, 1934, when Tropical Storm Nine brought 15.29" of rain to the city. Satellite loops of atmospheric precipitable water show that this weekend's heavy rains were caused by a flow of very moist tropical air that originated over the warm waters of the tropical Eastern Pacific and flowed northwards across Mexico and Central America to the Panhandle of Florida. This moist airmass has been replaced by relatively dry air over the Gulf, which should limit rainfall amounts today to the 1 - 2 inch range. A cold front expected to arrive on Tuesday will serve as the focus to bring additional rains of 1 - 2 inches per day to portions of the region Tuesday and Wednesday. Before this weekend's mighty rainstorm, the Florida Panhandle was experiencing severe to extreme drought, with 12 - 15 inches of rain needed to pull the region out of drought. This weekend's rains have busted the drought the extreme western Panhandle, but surrounding regions of Alabama, Georgia, and Florida still need 10+ inches of rain.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall for the Florida Panhandle from this weekend's rain storm.


Figure 2. Amount of precipitation needed to bust drought conditions over the U.S., as of June 2, 2012. A Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDI) of -0.5 is considered the boundary of where a drought exists. The 12 - 15 inches of rain that fell across the extreme western Florida Panhandle and coastal Alabama over the weekend were enough to bust the drought in those regions. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Some rainfall amounts from the storm, from 7 pm CDT Thu June 7, through 3 am CDT Sunday June 10, from the latest NOAA Storm Summary:

...ALABAMA...
TILLMANS CORNER 4.3 WNW 10.77"
GRAND BAY 0.6 NW 10.03"
MOBILE DOWNTOWN ARPT 8.97"

...FLORIDA...
WEST PENSACOLA 10.9 SW 21.70"
PENSACOLA RGNL ARPT 15.08"
MILTON 10.9 SSW 14.42"
PENSACOLA 3.8 N 13.88"
JACKSONVILLE 11.6 ENE 4.31"

...GEORGIA...
AUGUSTA/DANIEL FIELD 4.08"
WARNER ROBINS AFB 1.95"
VALDOSTA RGNL ARPT 1.50"

...LOUISIANA...
PONCHATOULA 11.8 E 5.64"
SLIDELL 4.29"
LACOMBE 1.4 N 3.73"
BATON ROUGE 2.5 E 2.26"
NEW ORLEANS/LAKEFRONT 2.13"

...MISSISSIPPI...
PASCAGOULA 7.50"
GULFPORT-BILOXI 6.52"
PASS CHRISTIAN 3.5 NE 4.69"

The Atlantic is quiet
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic today. The NOGAPS model is predicting formation of a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical depression in the Western Caribbean by Sunday, but none of the other models is going along with this idea. We could get something developing in the waters offshore of North Carolina late this week, along the edge of a cold front expected to move of the U.S. East Coast on Tuesday - Wednesday. The GFS model has suggested something could develop in this region in several of its recent runs.

Jeff Masters

flood (megulfbreeze)
Out the front window as our house flooded
flood
Flash (mobal)
I decided to turn around
Flash

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Quoting RitaEvac:


Aint gonna happen

Nothing is certain when dealing with weather forecasting.
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Gulf Of Mexico - Infrared Channel 4 Loop
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Quoting gulfbeachgal:
Good Morning everyone!
Imagine my surprise when I read Dr. Masters' message today. The 21.70" report from Pensacola was submitted by me. I'm a member of COCORAHS (Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow network). Once I reported my readings, it was immediately picked up by NOAA. My readings began at 0700 Saturday morning. From 0720 - 0948, I recorded 11.69" of rain - and I made an hourly recording up until 1640, when the rain slacked to sporadic sprinkles. My home is about 28' above sealevel so we experienced no flooding but unfortunately neighbors to my east and west (especially) had anywhere to minor to severe flooding in the low lying areas along Gulf Beach Highway. A retention pond along the highway overflowed and caused MAJOR headaches for nearby residents.
The first part of last week I was reading the blog here and noticed that someone had posted a long range forecast for some type of "event" this past weekend. I mentioned it to my husband...and low and behold it was certainly true. So, whoever you were, thanks for that post. I stay glued to Weatherunderground this time of year. Thanks to all who are so dedicated to the assimilation of weather history and current happenings.
Gulf Beach Gal, West Pensacola


Might have to up those numbers in Mobile as well. It appears Atlanta is next!
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Good Afternoon. Nice to see Pensacola Dan still with us and the pics from Mobal in Dr. M's Blog.

I am still relatively dry in Tallahassee but drove through lots of rain around Florida on a road trip down to Miami over the weekend and back to Tally yesterday afternoon. Nice and green everywhere along the Turnpike and across I-10.

Starting to think about the "old timers" in Florida with one of their old hurricane tales; "this much rain in parts of the State at this time is going to be followed by a big Cane later in the year; you watch".

That is not science but just making the observation.........Have to wait until August-Sept to see what actually happens this year............:)
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Quoting Hurricane1216:
O.O. Look at what GFS has on the Houston/Galveston area in 300 hours, at 6z model. It appears to be a 990 mbar strong tropical storm landfall right where Ike did in 2008.






Aint gonna happen
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Quoting gulfbeachgal:
Good Morning everyone!
Imagine my surprise when I read Dr. Masters' message today. The 21.70" report from Pensacola was submitted by me. I'm a member of COCORAHS (Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow network). Once I reported my readings, it was immediately picked up by NOAA. My readings began at 0700 Saturday morning. From 0720 - 0948, I recorded 11.69" of rain - and I made an hourly recording up until 1640, when the rain slacked to sporadic sprinkles. My home is about 28' above sealevel so we experienced no flooding but unfortunately neighbors to my east and west (especially) had anywhere to minor to severe flooding in the low lying areas along Gulf Beach Highway. A retention pond along the highway overflowed and caused MAJOR headaches for nearby residents.
Gulf Beach Gal, West Pensacola


Hey, neighbor! I live in Gulf Breeze (a few miles east of PCola for the non-locals) and work on Palafox St. in PCola. I, too, mostly lurk here, and at this time of the year I'm on Wunderground at least once per day.

Your 21.7" reading doesn't surprise me in the least. At the height of the storm Saturday afternoon, I was actually at the movies. Rt. 98 was flooded as I left, power was out, and was not restored on my street until early Sunday morning. My street was flooded (it hasn't done that since Ivan) and had to drain water out of the pool four or five times over the weekend - this after topping it off on Friday because we haven't had any rain to speak of. :D

As far as breaking the drought? Unlikely. The sandy soil here gets saturated very quickly, and this much rain that fast produces more runoff than anything else. I do wish it could have been spaced over a month or two; that would be helpful in breaking the drought. If it doesn't rain by Wednesday, I'll still need to be watering my garden again.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41002
Dont we have posters here from south carolina?..nasty weather happening there right now...stay safe folks up there,heed your local warnings...........TORNADO WARNING
SCC017-075-111745-
/O.NEW.KCAE.TO.W.0011.120611T1709Z-120611T1745Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
109 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN COLUMBIA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CALHOUN COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA
CENTRAL ORANGEBURG COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 145 PM EDT

* AT 1259 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES
NORTHWEST OF ORANGEBURG AND ANOTHER STORM JUST EAST OF ORANGEBURG.
BOTH STORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH..

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
BROOKDALE...ST. MATTHEWS AND ELLOREE

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

REPORT LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS OR FLOODING TO YOUR COUNTY
SHERIFF...OR CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...TOLL FREE 1 877 6 3
3...6 7 7 2.

&&

LAT...LON 3335 8103 3360 8100 3379 8086 3376 8078
3377 8077 3374 8063 3344 8041
TIME...MOT...LOC 1708Z 222DEG 18KT 3357 8092

$$

SJN
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41002
Only 10% now.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON JUN 11 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA HAVE BECOME DISORGANIZED...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
BECOMING INCREASINGLY LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

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Quoting washingtonian115:
"My pool may be warm enough to support tropical development".Lol.The Patomic is warm enough to support a full blown hurricane. That model sure hates Texas....
And I think that the Nogaps hate Nicaragua it develop phantom storms that make landfall in that country.
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Cool, DR. Master used one of my pictures!
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Kudos, StormTracker2K!
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Quoting DookiePBC:
Sounds like an interesting next week or two. All I know is that it has been really hot the past few days down here in Palm Beach County. Pretty sure that my swimming pool is warm enough to support tropical development.

Of course, with possible development hinted at by models a week or 10 days out, there are responsibilities...DOOMCON may need an adjustment. We may also want to get a designated question answerer set up for the inevitable: "I have a picnic scheduled for 12 days from now in Miami...should I cancel it?" ;-)

"My pool may be warm enough to support tropical development".Lol.The Patomic is warm enough to support a full blown hurricane.
Quoting Stormchaser121:
That model sure hates Texas....
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


It's one run and that more than likely wont happen. When the Euro shows something then I might get excited.

we need to wait till its 120 hrs out then we will know first things first lets get something at the surface then models will come into better agreement

at the moment this is all just possible outcomes things will and can change

as always
we wait watch see
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Quoting gulfbeachgal:
Good Morning everyone!
Imagine my surprise when I read Dr. Masters' message today. The 21.70" report from Pensacola was submitted by me. I'm a member of COCORAHS (Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow network). Once I reported my readings, it was immediately picked up by NOAA. My readings began at 0700 Saturday morning. From 0720 - 0948, I recorded 11.69" of rain - and I made an hourly recording up until 1640, when the rain slacked to sporadic sprinkles. My home is about 28' above sealevel so we experienced no flooding but unfortunately neighbors to my east and west (especially) had anywhere to minor to severe flooding in the low lying areas along Gulf Beach Highway. A retention pond along the highway overflowed and caused MAJOR headaches for nearby residents.
The first part of last week I was reading the blog here and noticed that someone had posted a long range forecast for some type of "event" this past weekend. I mentioned it to my husband...and low and behold it was certainly true. So, whoever you were, thanks for that post. I stay glued to Weatherunderground this time of year. Thanks to all who are so dedicated to the assimilation of weather history and current happenings.
Gulf Beach Gal, West Pensacola


Yeah I posted the HPC forecast and some of the global guidance models which were showing 10" plus accuring last weekend. It might have been me or a couple of others who were posting some of the same images I was.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting Stormchaser121:


It's one run and that more than likely wont happen. When the Euro shows something then I might get excited.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Sounds like an interesting next week or two. All I know is that it has been really hot the past few days down here in Palm Beach County. Pretty sure that my swimming pool is warm enough to support tropical development.

Of course, with possible development hinted at by models a week or 10 days out, there are responsibilities...DOOMCON may need an adjustment. We may also want to get a designated question answerer set up for the inevitable: "I have a picnic scheduled for 12 days from now in Miami...should I cancel it?" ;-)

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950 ILwthrfan Much of Central Illinois is staring at 8 inch defecits for season to date rainfall and look for it to continue. Last night, went to bed with 70% chance of rain with about half inch expected. Now it's looking even more grim. Everything that crosses the Mississippi just evaporates.
994 ILwthrfan ...That complex will miss me 50 miles to the south I believe...
47 ILwthrfan ugh.....this will end in me cussing up a storm, because I know these will somehow, someway, find a way to mock me...
48 dabirds Looking better I think, we got soaked, ditches full still raining. Hope you get something, at least a half inch would help.

Oughtta share. After all, Missouri loves company.
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Quoting gulfbeachgal:
Good Morning everyone!
Imagine my surprise when I read Dr. Masters' message today. The 21.70" report from Pensacola was submitted by me. I'm a member of COCORAHS (Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow network). Once I reported my readings, it was immediately picked up by NOAA. My readings began at 0700 Saturday morning. From 0720 - 0948, I recorded 11.69" of rain - and I made an hourly recording up until 1640, when the rain slacked to sporadic sprinkles. My home is about 28' above sealevel so we experienced no flooding but unfortunately neighbors to my east and west (especially) had anywhere to minor to severe flooding in the low lying areas along Gulf Beach Highway. A retention pond along the highway overflowed and caused MAJOR headaches for nearby residents.
The first part of last week I was reading the blog here and noticed that someone had posted a long range forecast for some type of "event" this past weekend. I mentioned it to my husband...and low and behold it was certainly true. So, whoever you were, thanks for that post. I stay glued to Weatherunderground this time of year. Thanks to all who are so dedicated to the assimilation of weather history and current happenings.
Gulf Beach Gal, West Pensacola


Hello neighbor!
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Quoting DavidHOUTX:


my bad!
That's okay I used to be skeptical about opening it for security reasons.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
It does you have to click proceed anyway.


my bad!
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National Center for Atmospheric Research installing its supercomputer in center at Cheyenne, should be operational by Sept/Oct. University of WY will also get access. Will be a top 10 supercomputer worldwide. Imagine Doc will have something to say about this in the future, always good to improve the tools we use in research!
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Let me get this straight..okay so starting this weekend off of the S.E coast a possible sub tropical storm forms and is then kicked out to sea.By mid next week something starts to materialize down in the caribbean and briefly becomes a tropical depression/weak storm and then downgrades while crossing the Yucatan while having its energy robbed by a second storm over in the atlantic.?
Depends on which model you put the most faith in. Are all the reliable models on board with development off the S.E. coast? I see the GFS briefly spins something up in the N.W. Caribbean, but runs it into Yucatan Peninsula and the NOGAPS seems to pick up on something in 5 days in the N.W. Caribbean.
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iam expecting an area of disturb weather in two regions by end of the week
the first will be a retrograding system off east coast moving sw ward then swing to the ne
the second will be in the deep sw carb with movement towards the nw carb then north to western end of cuba isle of youth
then ne ward up and out over se fla coast bahamas region
expect to see a surface reflection by thurs friday off east coast saturday sunday in the sw carb
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Not surprisingly the Gulf storm disappeared on the 12z GFS... We would probably get Chris from the Caribbean disturbance in that run and we would definitely get Debby ( or Chris if he didn't form in the Caribbean) if the open Atlantic storm verified.
I think the depression in the open Atlantic attains first tropical storm status.
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Quoting DavidHOUTX:


link doesn't work
It does you have to click proceed anyway.
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Let me get this straight..okay so starting this weekend off of the S.E coast a possible sub tropical storm forms and is then kicked out to sea.By mid next week something starts to materialize down in the caribbean and briefly becomes a tropical depression/weak storm and then downgrades while crossing the Yucatan while having its energy robbed by a second storm over in the atlantic.?
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
12z NOGAPS has a TS in NW Caribbean at 108 hours.

Link


link doesn't work
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Quoting iootnega:


I dont put much faith in anything more than 3-4 days out, let alone what a model says in 2 weeks...


dvelops in exactly 7 days
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Quoting weatherh98:


what gulf storm, and this is the 06z

The 6z showed a Gulf storm, and this is the 12z.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7948
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Not surprisingly the Gulf storm disappeared on the 12z GFS... We would probably get Chris from the Caribbean disturbance in that run and we would definitely get Debby ( or Chris if he didn't form in the Caribbean) if the open Atlantic storm verified.


what gulf storm, and this is the 06z
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Quoting Hurricane1216:
O.O. Look at what GFS has on the Houston/Galveston area in 300 hours, at 6z model. It appears to be a 990 mbar strong tropical storm landfall right where Ike did in 2008.






I dont put much faith in anything more than 3-4 days out, let alone what a model says in 2 weeks...
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Not surprisingly the Gulf storm disappeared on the 12z GFS... We would probably get Chris from the Caribbean disturbance in that run and we would definitely get Debby ( or Chris if he didn't form in the Caribbean) if the open Atlantic storm verified.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7948
Funny what the MJO can do
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
High wind shear and land interaction only allows a tropical depression to briefly form in the NW Caribbean during this run. A trough split results in a tropical storm northeast of the Bahamas that moves out to sea.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
192 hours out has two tropical depressions in the Atlantic--one in the Caribbean and another northeast of the Bahamas.



Looks like it splits off whatever energy in the Caribbean into two separate systems.
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Quoting aspectre:
949 RitaEvac Actually if you've seen LIDAR elevation map of Harris County, it's the NW portion of county that is highest, but I get the idea what your saying.

Note the high elevation spots in center of county...those are landfills, as trash is built up high...
952 HouGalv08: Amazing, isn't it, when you see a map like that. We've managed to build the 4th largest city in the country in one of the most flood prone, disaster potential place in the USA.
955 RitaEvac: What's amazing is you go from sea level at Galveston Bay in Harris County to 350ft elevation on the NW side. We are in a unique area from a natural state, to the economic and non zoning concrete jungle, mania.....sitting ducks if you will.

The topology ain't much worse than NewYork, LosAngeles, or Chicago. Hurricane hit potential is extra, but the land rises fast enough. Even a 30foot(9metre)storm surge wouldn't penetrate grieviously into Houston itself.
Now ya wanna talk poor infrastructure design&engineering and g'dawf'l construction&zoning codes for the metroplex as a whole, that's pure politics. If it weren't for insurance companies, y'all would have already been sacrificed to the AlmightyDollar.



Several years ago, for a short time, I lived in Newport/Crosby about 30 mins NE or Houston in Harris CO. I remember in the back yard that you could actually see the tide rise and fall in the little holes that I believe crawfish were digging in the yard. There'd be a little mound with a round hole and at high tide the water would be up to the top of the hole, at low tide it would be dry. Very interesting.
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The depression in the Caribbean moves across the Yucatan while weakening at 204 hours out. The depression northeast of the Bahamas moves north and intensifies into a tropical storm.

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192 hours out has two tropical depressions in the Atlantic--one in the Caribbean and another northeast of the Bahamas.

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Thank you Keeper!
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12z NOGAPS has a TS in NW Caribbean at 108 hours.

Link
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Quoting gulfbeachgal:
Good Morning everyone!
Imagine my surprise when I read Dr. Masters' message today. The 21.70" report from Pensacola was submitted by me. I'm a member of COCORAHS (Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow network). Once I reported my readings, it was immediately picked up by NOAA. My readings began at 0700 Saturday morning. From 0720 - 0948, I recorded 11.69" of rain - and I made an hourly recording up until 1640, when the rain slacked to sporadic sprinkles. My home is about 28' above sealevel so we experienced no flooding but unfortunately neighbors to my east and west (especially) had anywhere to minor to severe flooding in the low lying areas along Gulf Beach Highway. A retention pond along the highway overflowed and caused MAJOR headaches for nearby residents.
The first part of last week I was reading the blog here and noticed that someone had posted a long range forecast for some type of "event" this past weekend. I mentioned it to my husband...and low and behold it was certainly true. So, whoever you were, thanks for that post. I stay glued to Weatherunderground this time of year. Thanks to all who are so dedicated to the assimilation of weather history and current happenings.
Gulf Beach Gal, West Pensacola
the moisture influx was strong i began to expect near 30 inches late thursday night thats when i started posting that threat for the end of the week
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180 hours out:

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Quoting dabirds:
Yep, definitely looking much better than it did two hours ago, luckily the sun poked out and shot temps up into the lower 80's, looks as if that SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 372 needs to be adjusted north to the I-70 corridor from Vandalia to Terre Haute.  
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Extremely broad monsoonal depression in the Caribbean by next weekend on the 12z GFS.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.