Damaging rains bust the drought in portions of Florida Panhandle

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on June 11, 2012

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Flood waters are receding in the rain-drenched Florida Panhandle and coastal Alabama today, where prodigious rains from a moist, tropical airmass interacting with a stalled front brought flooding that caused at least $20 million in damage to the Pensacola, Florida area. The most remarkable rains fell in West Pensacola, where 21.70" was recorded over the weekend. Pensacola airport received 13.13 inches of rain on Saturday, the city's second-highest 1-day rainfall total in recorded history. The only greater 1-day rainfall occurred on October 5, 1934, when Tropical Storm Nine brought 15.29" of rain to the city. Satellite loops of atmospheric precipitable water show that this weekend's heavy rains were caused by a flow of very moist tropical air that originated over the warm waters of the tropical Eastern Pacific and flowed northwards across Mexico and Central America to the Panhandle of Florida. This moist airmass has been replaced by relatively dry air over the Gulf, which should limit rainfall amounts today to the 1 - 2 inch range. A cold front expected to arrive on Tuesday will serve as the focus to bring additional rains of 1 - 2 inches per day to portions of the region Tuesday and Wednesday. Before this weekend's mighty rainstorm, the Florida Panhandle was experiencing severe to extreme drought, with 12 - 15 inches of rain needed to pull the region out of drought. This weekend's rains have busted the drought the extreme western Panhandle, but surrounding regions of Alabama, Georgia, and Florida still need 10+ inches of rain.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall for the Florida Panhandle from this weekend's rain storm.


Figure 2. Amount of precipitation needed to bust drought conditions over the U.S., as of June 2, 2012. A Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDI) of -0.5 is considered the boundary of where a drought exists. The 12 - 15 inches of rain that fell across the extreme western Florida Panhandle and coastal Alabama over the weekend were enough to bust the drought in those regions. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Some rainfall amounts from the storm, from 7 pm CDT Thu June 7, through 3 am CDT Sunday June 10, from the latest NOAA Storm Summary:

...ALABAMA...
TILLMANS CORNER 4.3 WNW 10.77"
GRAND BAY 0.6 NW 10.03"
MOBILE DOWNTOWN ARPT 8.97"

...FLORIDA...
WEST PENSACOLA 10.9 SW 21.70"
PENSACOLA RGNL ARPT 15.08"
MILTON 10.9 SSW 14.42"
PENSACOLA 3.8 N 13.88"
JACKSONVILLE 11.6 ENE 4.31"

...GEORGIA...
AUGUSTA/DANIEL FIELD 4.08"
WARNER ROBINS AFB 1.95"
VALDOSTA RGNL ARPT 1.50"

...LOUISIANA...
PONCHATOULA 11.8 E 5.64"
SLIDELL 4.29"
LACOMBE 1.4 N 3.73"
BATON ROUGE 2.5 E 2.26"
NEW ORLEANS/LAKEFRONT 2.13"

...MISSISSIPPI...
PASCAGOULA 7.50"
GULFPORT-BILOXI 6.52"
PASS CHRISTIAN 3.5 NE 4.69"

The Atlantic is quiet
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic today. The NOGAPS model is predicting formation of a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical depression in the Western Caribbean by Sunday, but none of the other models is going along with this idea. We could get something developing in the waters offshore of North Carolina late this week, along the edge of a cold front expected to move of the U.S. East Coast on Tuesday - Wednesday. The GFS model has suggested something could develop in this region in several of its recent runs.

Jeff Masters

flood (megulfbreeze)
Out the front window as our house flooded
flood
Flash (mobal)
I decided to turn around
Flash

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Quoting StormHype:


Cat3 or better in June? LMAO. Please relax. TS is less than 74mph winds.


Hurricane Audrey was the first major hurricane of the 1957 Atlantic hurricane season. Audrey was the only storm to reach Category 4 status in June. A powerful hurricane, Audrey caused catastrophic damage across eastern Texas and western Louisiana. It then affected the South Central United States as a powerful extratropical storm.

Formed June 25, 1957
Dissipated June 29, 1957
Highest winds 1-minute sustained:
145 mph (230 km/h)
Lowest pressure 946 mbar (hPa); 27.94 inHg
Fatalities 431 direct

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12z Euro has a weak low off the East Coast, probably a TD.
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Quoting HouGalv08:
" minor wind damage"? Have you lost your mind? You obviously missed the article in the Houston Chronicle last week that examined what would happen with a cat 3 or better crossing Harris county. NOT a pretty picture!


Cat3 or better in June? LMAO. Please relax. TS is less than 74mph winds.
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I don't think it was enough to bring the PDSI up to -0.5 just yet. The entire division needed to receive 12 to 15 inches. The 12 to 15 inch amounts were localized, the divisional average was probably closer to 6 to 9 inches, meaning another 3 to 6 inches would be needed to bring the PDSI up to -0.5.
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The doom con level will sure be raised quite a bit this week into next week on the blog.When the MJO comes it looks like it doesn't want to go anywhere else for a while.So the models have gone nuts and are showing a caribbean system splitting into becoming two entities.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Not really. I guess you would call this subtropical? lol.


Lol, right on the line... 6z GFS was very cold core with it so that's an improvement.

Also the 12z CMC is warm core

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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Most indications right now are that it will be cold core... Obviously that's not set in stone but that's what most of the models are saying.

Not really. I guess you would call this subtropical? lol.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32260
Thanks you guys.

Post 141.ROTFLMAO!.
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The expedition was spurred in part by climate-change research -- scientists wanted to know, Bontempi said, what effect changing radiation levels (from the sun) were having on Arctic.

Remember BobWallace, it'll be coming back with a vengeance when the "experts" start looking back up in the sky at the sun. Neil Frank knows it all too well.
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Nothing new in the world? Nothing left to discover? NASA would beg to differ. The discovery of an "enormous, off-the-charts" bloom of microscopic marine plants in the Arctic has floored scientists.

And it confirms, if nothing else, that there are things on this planet not yet seen -- things that you "never, ever could have anticipated in a million years.

Arctic Ocean mega-bloom: Scientists' eyes popped and jaws dropped
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Quoting washingtonian115:
I have herd some already wanting that model run to come true.Lol.Here in D.C we could use a weak tropical storm about now to help with this on coming drought.Been hot but not enough rain.Thunderstorms are in the forecast though.Could be Alex part two or Don part two.


Don disappeared faster than Jimmy Hoffa.
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The JMA model..Joe's favorite model





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Quoting washingtonian115:
Is that the storm that is suppose to form off the Carolinas this weekend?
Quoting ncstorm:


Yep!

Most indications right now are that it will be cold core... Obviously that's not set in stone but that's what most of the models are saying.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

He said a tropical storm would provide minor wind damage in the area. It helps to read the posts before accusing.
Hmmm....I stand corrected. My fault for lumping "TS" as a full blown storm. Yes, I agree, a TS might help resolve the drought issue somewhat. But then again, a simple TS can cause it's own havocs as I've seen in this city many times--'79 Claudette, '81 Allison.
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Quoting RitaEvac:


hahahahhahaha YES!  
Seriously we have a TUSCOLA shield here that makes the TAMPA shield look like a piece of cardboard being held up to an incoming nuclear weapon.  

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Quoting washingtonian115:
Is that the storm that is suppose to form off the Carolinas this weekend?

May not even be the weekend, more like Wednesday-Friday.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32260
Quoting washingtonian115:
Is that the storm that is suppose to form off the Carolinas this weekend?


Yep!
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Quoting ncstorm:
12z Euro

Is that the storm that is suppose to form off the Carolinas this weekend?
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132. Tygor
Quoting RitaEvac:


Models that far out are useless and not worthy to even look at.

Heat is on in TX



Just hit 100 here (heat index approaching 110), hasn't rained in a month, and the grass is crispy. It's 2011 all over again.
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Quoting dabirds:
Thought you'd be ok, sorry to hear that. Did notice it looked like Shelbyville Lake disrupted it a little, but that looked to be south of you. We're in the tail end now, can see sunlight to the west. Hope the backend contains some more for you guys. St. Charles County had almost 2", that's where most of ours comes from when they're moving ENE, so we may be above an inch.

Which factory is that?
Used to be called USI.  They moved out and CABOT and 
Lyondell/Equistar moved in.  USI used to employ over 3K workers now its just down to skeletal screws.   The two new industries don't employ 500 combined.  It's a very nasty place.  They dump their waste in DEEP wells.  They dumped some NASTY stuff in there back in the 70-80's. 

Pretty much done raining here now and all three my rain gages read exactly .1 of an inch, but I know a lot places west of here probably got over an 1 inch.  
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Quoting HouGalv08:
" minor wind damage"? Have you lost your mind. You obviously missed the article in the Houston Chronicle last week that examined what would happen with a cat 3 or better crossing Harris county. NOT a pretty picture!

He said a tropical storm would provide minor wind damage in the area. It helps to read the posts before accusing.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32260
93L gone PUFFFFFF! 10% chance now... it's -100% to me
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Quoting whs2012:
RitaEvac, the GFS is only predicting a TS. The beneficial rains would outweigh the potential for minor wind damage. I'm rooting for that development (even if it isn't likely).
" minor wind damage"? Have you lost your mind? You obviously missed the article in the Houston Chronicle last week that examined what would happen with a cat 3 or better crossing Harris county. NOT a pretty picture!
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Quoting aspectre:
82 Stormchaser121: [ 300hour GFS map]
90 washingtonian115: That model sure hates Texas...

I suspect many Texans would welcome a strongTropicalStorm/weakCat.1 for the rain, and...
...Houstonians would especially welcome relief from their upcoming 100degreeF(37.8degreeC)plus heatwave.
I have herd some already wanting that model run to come true.Lol.Here in D.C we could use a weak tropical storm about now to help with this on coming drought.Been hot but not enough rain.Thunderstorms are in the forecast though.
Quoting ncstorm:


models have done a poor job on intensity..what we currently see forecasted in the runs may be even stronger once it starts forming
Could be Alex part two or Don part two.
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12z Euro

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82 Stormchaser121: [300hour GFS map]
90 washingtonian115: That model sure hates Texas...

I suspect many Texans would welcome a strongTropicalStorm/weakCat.1 for the rain, and Houstonians would especially welcome relief from their upcoming 100degreeF(37.8degreeC)plus heatwave.
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The Earth is Nearing the Tipping Point of No return.....the more i read the more scared I get for my grandchildren and Their kids to come......some of what this article says is already happening..the scarcity of the humble bumble bee, those that make honey and pollinate crops..........Link
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Quoting washingtonian115:
That may not be to far from reality though...If shear at that moment in time isn't that strong then the "Future" storm may be stronger then what models have been showing.


models have done a poor job on intensity..what we currently see forecasted in the runs may be even stronger once it starts forming
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The CMC also stalls the east coast storm..it drifts south some..so we maybe looking at another beryl
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Wonder if that model showing the pacific system crossing into BOC is what another model is seeing........lololol...this could drive ya to drink!!
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Quoting ILwthrfan:

sigh...Everywhere but in our town.  It's a light bubble rain, but it's not adding up to much.  Storm split into two right before it made it way through town. North and South about 5 miles between the two of them.  






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Quoting ILwthrfan:

sigh...Everywhere but in our town.  It's a light bubble rain, but it's not adding up to much.  Storm split into two right before it made it way through town. North and South about 5 miles between the two of them.
Thought you'd be ok, sorry to hear that. Did notice it looked like Shelbyville Lake disrupted it a little, but that looked to be south of you. We're in the tail end now, can see sunlight to the west. Hope the backend contains some more for you guys. St. Charles County had almost 2", that's where most of ours comes from when they're moving ENE, so we may be above an inch.

Which factory is that?
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Quoting ncstorm:
Hurricane anyone?

and yes its the Nogaps..
That may not be to far from reality though...If shear at that moment in time isn't that strong then the "Future" storm may be stronger then what models have been showing.
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Some models seeing dev in BOC,while some showing Caribbean,some SW Atlantic. I don't think we gonna go 0 for 3.
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Hurricane anyone?

and yes its the Nogaps..
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Interesting
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Quoting dabirds:
Looks like you're going to get some after all ILwthr. At least an inch here.
alot of gulf moisture headed northwards,alot of people going to get some rain out of this,especially the eastern states
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Quoting dabirds:
Looks like you're going to get some after all ILwthr. At least an inch here.
sigh...Everywhere but in our town.  It's a light bubble rain, but it's not adding up to much.  Storm split into two right before it made it's way through town. North and South about 5 miles between the two of them.  Hoping for at least a 1/4 inch out of it.  I don't know why every storm does this.  It's funny we have a nasty factory west of town that has the legend of killing storms.  Here's your evidence.




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.................looks like that rain all week long did not cool off the Gulf Waters any..bath water it is ..look down by the keys..87 degree's whew
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Quoting whs2012:
RitaEvac, the GFS is only predicting a TS. The beneficial rains would outweigh the potential for minor wind damage. I'm rooting for that development (even if it isn't likely).


Models that far out are useless and not worthy to even look at.

Heat is on in TX

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12z CMC-East Coast Storm


and the CMC still is showing the tropical wave from the antilles..this run goes out to 180 but you can see the moisture coming into the frame..

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Looks like you're going to get some after all ILwthr. At least an inch here.
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
139 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2012

GAC167-175-283-111800-
/O.CON.KFFC.SV.W.0163.000000T0000Z-120611T1800Z/
TREUTLEN GA-LAURENS GA-JOHNSON GA-
139 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM EDT
FOR WESTERN JOHNSON...EASTERN LAURENS AND NORTHWESTERN TREUTLEN
COUNTIES...

AT 134 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS UP TO 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM TUCKERS CROSSROAD TO BREWTON TO MINTER TO ROCKLEDGE TO LOWERY...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
SCOTT...LOVETT...ORIANNA...ORLAND...SPANN...BLACK VILLE AND
WRIGHTSVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WIND DAMAGE WITH THIS STORM MAY OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF ANY RAIN OR
LIGHTNING. DO NOT WAIT FOR THE SOUND OF THUNDER BEFORE TAKING COVER.
SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

IF YOU SEE WIND DAMAGE...HAIL OR FLOODING...WAIT UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED...AND THEN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT 1 8
6 6 7 6 3 4 4 6 6. YOU CAN ALSO TWEET YOUR REPORT USING HASHTAG GAWX.

&&

LAT...LON 3241 8259 3228 8285 3247 8286 3265 8306
3270 8296 3276 8294 3281 8282 3264 8260
3258 8259 3256 8260 3253 8257 3251 8265
3249 8254
TIME...MOT...LOC 1739Z 237DEG 30KT 3267 8289 3262 8280
3256 8271 3253 8269 3250 8269 3243 8271
3237 8276

$$
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Hey Pensacola Dan and WXGulf Breeze - glad you both are without water damage.
I took a video of some people yesterday playing in a runoff ditch - it was about 3 - 4 foot deep. What I found rather yucky was that the runoff was in an area of overflowing septic systems, with yard and road runoff. Blech! Aren't people afraid of ringworm, etc??? Then I saw a mother let her toddler play in it naked. REALLY?!?!?
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Quoting Stormchaser121:

Looks like our friends in Texas are gonna get some rain :)
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93E down to 10%
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA HAVE BECOME DISORGANIZED...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
BECOMING INCREASINGLY LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
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Quoting RitaEvac:


Aint gonna happen

Nothing is certain when dealing with weather forecasting.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32260

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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