Damaging rains bust the drought in portions of Florida Panhandle

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on June 11, 2012

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Flood waters are receding in the rain-drenched Florida Panhandle and coastal Alabama today, where prodigious rains from a moist, tropical airmass interacting with a stalled front brought flooding that caused at least $20 million in damage to the Pensacola, Florida area. The most remarkable rains fell in West Pensacola, where 21.70" was recorded over the weekend. Pensacola airport received 13.13 inches of rain on Saturday, the city's second-highest 1-day rainfall total in recorded history. The only greater 1-day rainfall occurred on October 5, 1934, when Tropical Storm Nine brought 15.29" of rain to the city. Satellite loops of atmospheric precipitable water show that this weekend's heavy rains were caused by a flow of very moist tropical air that originated over the warm waters of the tropical Eastern Pacific and flowed northwards across Mexico and Central America to the Panhandle of Florida. This moist airmass has been replaced by relatively dry air over the Gulf, which should limit rainfall amounts today to the 1 - 2 inch range. A cold front expected to arrive on Tuesday will serve as the focus to bring additional rains of 1 - 2 inches per day to portions of the region Tuesday and Wednesday. Before this weekend's mighty rainstorm, the Florida Panhandle was experiencing severe to extreme drought, with 12 - 15 inches of rain needed to pull the region out of drought. This weekend's rains have busted the drought the extreme western Panhandle, but surrounding regions of Alabama, Georgia, and Florida still need 10+ inches of rain.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall for the Florida Panhandle from this weekend's rain storm.


Figure 2. Amount of precipitation needed to bust drought conditions over the U.S., as of June 2, 2012. A Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDI) of -0.5 is considered the boundary of where a drought exists. The 12 - 15 inches of rain that fell across the extreme western Florida Panhandle and coastal Alabama over the weekend were enough to bust the drought in those regions. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Some rainfall amounts from the storm, from 7 pm CDT Thu June 7, through 3 am CDT Sunday June 10, from the latest NOAA Storm Summary:

...ALABAMA...
TILLMANS CORNER 4.3 WNW 10.77"
GRAND BAY 0.6 NW 10.03"
MOBILE DOWNTOWN ARPT 8.97"

...FLORIDA...
WEST PENSACOLA 10.9 SW 21.70"
PENSACOLA RGNL ARPT 15.08"
MILTON 10.9 SSW 14.42"
PENSACOLA 3.8 N 13.88"
JACKSONVILLE 11.6 ENE 4.31"

...GEORGIA...
AUGUSTA/DANIEL FIELD 4.08"
WARNER ROBINS AFB 1.95"
VALDOSTA RGNL ARPT 1.50"

...LOUISIANA...
PONCHATOULA 11.8 E 5.64"
SLIDELL 4.29"
LACOMBE 1.4 N 3.73"
BATON ROUGE 2.5 E 2.26"
NEW ORLEANS/LAKEFRONT 2.13"

...MISSISSIPPI...
PASCAGOULA 7.50"
GULFPORT-BILOXI 6.52"
PASS CHRISTIAN 3.5 NE 4.69"

The Atlantic is quiet
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic today. The NOGAPS model is predicting formation of a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical depression in the Western Caribbean by Sunday, but none of the other models is going along with this idea. We could get something developing in the waters offshore of North Carolina late this week, along the edge of a cold front expected to move of the U.S. East Coast on Tuesday - Wednesday. The GFS model has suggested something could develop in this region in several of its recent runs.

Jeff Masters

flood (megulfbreeze)
Out the front window as our house flooded
flood
Flash (mobal)
I decided to turn around
Flash

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Quoting Grothar:


Are you trying to confuse me? :)


Im way confused.
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Quoting Grothar:


Are you trying to confuse me? :)


hello gro good to see ya
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Quoting RitaEvac:


Heck if I know, not worrying bout it till I see clouds out there


CLOUD! in the gulf
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Quoting washingtonian115:
According to the ECWMF it wouldn't surprise me if Chris/Debby is Dolly part two except with a more northerly track.


Are you trying to confuse me? :)
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Quoting luvtogolf:


276 hours is a long way out. Models have been all over the place in developing something somewhere. Let's see how it plays out.


It shows it at 192 hrs or so

8days
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Quoting ScottLincoln:


It's the new strategy of a few.... if we can't beat them with the science and evidence, let's just not let them talk about it. As long as they can't keep using those scary truthful science terms, the public will never hold us accountable for not being accountable to them!


today climate change tomorrow climate shift

it is what it is and what its meant to become
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
LOL......................I love my pantry.


Me too where do you think i spend my time?

Growing boy needs his food
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Quoting weatherh98:


Is this what we originally thought to be chris?


Heck if I know, not worrying bout it till I see clouds out there
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Quoting Felix2007:
GFS shows something developing near Texas at 276 hours. Looks pretty strong to me as well, perhaps a hurricane? Chris is coming!


276 hours is a long way out. Models have been all over the place in developing something somewhere. Let's see how it plays out.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
According to the ECWMF it wouldn't surprise me if Chris/Debby is Dolly part two except with a more northerly track.


carribean or atl
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Debby is gonna be a B>>>>


Is this what we originally thought to be chris?
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According to the ECWMF it wouldn't surprise me if Chris/Debby is Dolly part two except with a more northerly track.
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Quoting aspectre:
Does 21.7inches of flooding rain really produce (*) 12to15inches of drought-busting rain?
ie Did the storm run-off have enough soak-time to recharge the ground with sufficient water to break WestFlorida's drought condition?

* the equivalent to or more than


Maybe, maybe not.
Doesn't Florida have a lot of aquifers and springs?

I guess when they prepare the drought monitor they'll take the groundwater situation/hydrologoy into account.
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Quoting weatherh98:


you from getting to the pantry:P...

Storm systems mainly troughs or tropical systems
LOL......................I love my pantry.
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4570
Debby is gonna be a B>>>>
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
To block what exactly?


you from getting to the pantry:P...

Storm systems mainly troughs or tropical systems
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Quoting Felix2007:
GFS shows something developing near Texas at 276 hours. Looks pretty strong to me as well, perhaps a hurricane? Chris is coming!
Or Debby if that storm over the weekend doesn't attain the name first.
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12z ECMWF

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Quoting washingtonian115:
Audrey was scary.I had a aunt by the name of Audrey...mean old women.


It's best for the authorities safe and sound on the mainland with the gadgets and expertise be the ones calling the shots, regardless of the rig in the heart of the storm reporting 925mb and 180mph wind.
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Quoting LargoFl:
in 42 hours there will be 2 blocking highs
To block what exactly?
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4570
Quoting RitaEvac:
Nothing new in the world? Nothing left to discover? NASA would beg to differ. The discovery of an "enormous, off-the-charts" bloom of microscopic marine plants in the Arctic has floored scientists.

And it confirms, if nothing else, that there are things on this planet not yet seen -- things that you "never, ever could have anticipated in a million years.

Arctic Ocean mega-bloom: Scientists' eyes popped and jaws dropped
Now,Rita yaknow we don't need no infrastructure,science,or EPA........LOLOLOLOLOL
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4570
GFS shows something developing near Texas at 276 hours. Looks pretty strong to me as well, perhaps a hurricane? Chris is coming!
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Quoting ILwthrfan:
Used to be called USI.  They moved out and CABOT and 
Lyondell/Equistar moved in.  USI used to employ over 3K workers now its just down to skeletal screws.   The two new industries don't employ 500 combined.  It's a very nasty place.  They dump their waste in DEEP wells.  They dumped some NASTY stuff in there back in the 70-80's. 

Pretty much done raining here now and all three my rain gages read exactly .1 of an inch, but I know a lot places west of here probably got over an 1 inch.  
Action: Quote | Ignore User
Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 357
Heck of a shield you have going, sorry to hear that's all. They inject(ed) deep? How was that CO2 sequestration supposed to work at the FutureGen if that stuff was down there? Guess we'll never know now.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Nothing is impossible, but the odds the storm on the 6z GFS from this morning verifies are extremely small... That run has no support from any other GFS run and also that run had no support from the GFS ensembles.


What exactly are ensemble runs compared to the regular say GFS run? i always hear the words "ensemble members"

I will research it myself,but if anyone has a quick answer??
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4570
Quoting Grothar:
Big Blob!




betchya that one forms LOL
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142 RitaEvac: Nothing left to discover? NASA would beg to differ. The discovery of an "enormous, off-the-charts" bloom of microscopic marine plants in the Arctic has floored scientists...
143 RitaEvac: The expedition was spurred in part by climate-change research -- scientists wanted to know...what effect changing radiation levels (from the sun) were having on the Arctic...Neil Frank knows it all too well.

Not exactly: the sun isn't changing its radiation levels (to any significant degree).
The blooms are apparently the result of the increased light intensity and spectrum that reaches the seawater when effectively transparent meltwater overlays effectively transparent thin sea-ice of the presentday rather than when effectively reflective snow covers thick refractive multi-year sea-ice of years previous to the GreatMeltdown.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Man continues to forget and ignore history, therefore shall perish at it's own demise when the tough gets going


We repeat history A LOT
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Quoting RevElvis:
Virginia Republican forces scientists to stop using climate change terminology

RawStory.com

Henceforth "Coastal Resilience" is to be used in place of "Climate Change" and "Sea Level Rise". (not kidding)


It's the new strategy of a few.... if we can't beat them with the science and evidence, let's just not let them talk about it. As long as they can't keep using those scary truthful science terms, the public will never hold us accountable for not being accountable to them!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Big Blob!


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Quoting RitaEvac:
Nothing new in the world? Nothing left to discover? NASA would beg to differ. The discovery of an "enormous, off-the-charts" bloom of microscopic marine plants in the Arctic has floored scientists.

And it confirms, if nothing else, that there are things on this planet not yet seen -- things that you "never, ever could have anticipated in a million years.

Arctic Ocean mega-bloom: Scientists' eyes popped and jaws dropped


Thanks for the link,very interesting reading for sure.
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4570
Quoting RitaEvac:
The strength of Hurricane Audrey was disputed during its meteorological history. Several calculations suggested that the pressure in the storm dropped to 938 millibars (27.7 inHg) while other calculations put it at 940 millibars (28 inHg). In addition, the peak wind speed of Audrey varied from 140 mph to 150 mph (225–240 km/h). An oil rig offshore claims to have recorded a reading of 925 millibars and a wind speed of 180 mph (290 km/h), but this is disputed by authorities.[1]
Audrey was scary.I had a aunt by the name of Audrey...mean old women.
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The strength of Hurricane Audrey was disputed during its meteorological history. Several calculations suggested that the pressure in the storm dropped to 938 millibars (27.7 inHg) while other calculations put it at 940 millibars (28 inHg). In addition, the peak wind speed of Audrey varied from 140 mph to 150 mph (225–240 km/h). An oil rig offshore claims to have recorded a reading of 925 millibars and a wind speed of 180 mph (290 km/h), but this is disputed by authorities.[1]
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170. N3EG
Quoting RitaEvac:
Man continues to forget and ignore history, therefore shall perish at it's on demise when the tough gets going


Mix metaphors, stir well...
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Quoting Stormchaser121:
Link
Further supports the model I posted. 6Z GFS
Unfortunately the Experimental FIM model is not a reliable model. Furthermore I wouldn't say development is not likely within the next 5 days. As the reliable GFS and GGEM (CMC) models forecast development off the East Coast. Dr. Masters also says that area should be monitored for potential development.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Maybe nogaps herd all of the negative comments that was said about it today.Then in it's model run head said "I'll show you all who's horrid".


Horrid was harsh..hurt the NOGAPS feelings..LOL!
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Virginia Republican forces scientists to stop using climate change terminology

RawStory.com

Henceforth "Coastal Resilience" is to be used in place of "Climate Change" and "Sea Level Rise". (not kidding)
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Quoting ncstorm:
Look a there..the Euro is following the NOGAPS

Maybe nogaps herd all of the negative comments that was said about it today.Then in it's model run head said "I'll show you all who's horrid".

TropicFreak it has been dry here though.The weather man did say that tropical air mass giving the gulf coast all that rain was gonna come up here and perhaps dump up to an inch.I hope so.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
I have herd some already wanting that model run to come true.Lol.Here in D.C we could use a weak tropical storm about now to help with this on coming drought.Been hot but not enough rain.Thunderstorms are in the forecast though. Could be Alex part two or Don part two.


Well according to HPC you aren't in any sort of a drought. I'm in the abnormally dry just 100 miles to your south, with a 4" rainfall deficit. Tomorrow should help some.
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The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of

far northwest Alabama
central and eastern Arkansas
far southern Illinois
western Kentucky
northern Mississippi
western Tennessee

Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 130 PM until 900
PM CDT.

Hail to 2 inches in diameter... thunderstorm wind gusts to 75
mph... and dangerous lightning are possible in these areas.

The Severe Thunderstorm Watch area is approximately along and 75
statute miles north and south of a line from 5 miles south
southwest of Hot Springs Arkansas to 65 miles north northeast of
Muscle Shoals Alabama. For a complete depiction of the watch see
the associated watch outline update (wous64 kwns wou3).

Remember... a Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally
do produce tornadoes.

Other watch information... continue... ww 372...

Discussion... Bow echo MCS with a history of damaging winds and large
hail is expected to continue sewd across the watch area this
afternoon and evening... perhaps accelerating with time. Inflow air
mass is characterized by steep midlevel lapse rates and rich
boundary layer moisture... yielding MLCAPE values of 2000-4000 j/kg.
When coupled with a 40-50 kt descending mesoscale rear inflow jet
/per sgf VAD obs/... setup appears favorable for a widespread
damaging wind event.
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There was a very rare tornado in Ireland today (at Sleibh Sneacht, Inishowen). A weak and roped-out one, to be sure. But it was in Ireland, after all:

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An event like Audrey today for instance into the Galveston/Houston area or NOLA, would be epic on a grand scale in the 21st century. Thousands would die because of the over population and not enough lead time for such an explosive hurricane to develop in such a short time span. This would wipe out a lotta people and infrastructure quickly.

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Look a there..the Euro is following the NOGAPS

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Quoting Stormchaser121:
Link
Further supports the model I posted. 6Z GFS

Nothing is impossible, but the odds the storm on the 6z GFS from this morning verifies are extremely small... That run has no support from any other GFS run and also that run had no support from the GFS ensembles.
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Looks frontal:



Looks Subtropical 12 hrs. later:



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Quoting LargoFl:
in 42 hours there will be 2 blocking highs
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Link
Further supports the model I posted. 6Z GFS
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Man continues to forget and ignore history, therefore shall perish at it's own demise when the tough gets going
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Quoting StormHype:


Cat3 or better in June? LMAO. Please relax. TS is less than 74mph winds.


Hurricane Audrey was the first major hurricane of the 1957 Atlantic hurricane season. Audrey was the only storm to reach Category 4 status in June. A powerful hurricane, Audrey caused catastrophic damage across eastern Texas and western Louisiana. It then affected the South Central United States as a powerful extratropical storm.

Formed June 25, 1957
Dissipated June 29, 1957
Highest winds 1-minute sustained:
145 mph (230 km/h)
Lowest pressure 946 mbar (hPa); 27.94 inHg
Fatalities 431 direct

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.