Damaging rains bust the drought in portions of Florida Panhandle

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on June 11, 2012

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Flood waters are receding in the rain-drenched Florida Panhandle and coastal Alabama today, where prodigious rains from a moist, tropical airmass interacting with a stalled front brought flooding that caused at least $20 million in damage to the Pensacola, Florida area. The most remarkable rains fell in West Pensacola, where 21.70" was recorded over the weekend. Pensacola airport received 13.13 inches of rain on Saturday, the city's second-highest 1-day rainfall total in recorded history. The only greater 1-day rainfall occurred on October 5, 1934, when Tropical Storm Nine brought 15.29" of rain to the city. Satellite loops of atmospheric precipitable water show that this weekend's heavy rains were caused by a flow of very moist tropical air that originated over the warm waters of the tropical Eastern Pacific and flowed northwards across Mexico and Central America to the Panhandle of Florida. This moist airmass has been replaced by relatively dry air over the Gulf, which should limit rainfall amounts today to the 1 - 2 inch range. A cold front expected to arrive on Tuesday will serve as the focus to bring additional rains of 1 - 2 inches per day to portions of the region Tuesday and Wednesday. Before this weekend's mighty rainstorm, the Florida Panhandle was experiencing severe to extreme drought, with 12 - 15 inches of rain needed to pull the region out of drought. This weekend's rains have busted the drought the extreme western Panhandle, but surrounding regions of Alabama, Georgia, and Florida still need 10+ inches of rain.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall for the Florida Panhandle from this weekend's rain storm.


Figure 2. Amount of precipitation needed to bust drought conditions over the U.S., as of June 2, 2012. A Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDI) of -0.5 is considered the boundary of where a drought exists. The 12 - 15 inches of rain that fell across the extreme western Florida Panhandle and coastal Alabama over the weekend were enough to bust the drought in those regions. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Some rainfall amounts from the storm, from 7 pm CDT Thu June 7, through 3 am CDT Sunday June 10, from the latest NOAA Storm Summary:

...ALABAMA...
TILLMANS CORNER 4.3 WNW 10.77"
GRAND BAY 0.6 NW 10.03"
MOBILE DOWNTOWN ARPT 8.97"

...FLORIDA...
WEST PENSACOLA 10.9 SW 21.70"
PENSACOLA RGNL ARPT 15.08"
MILTON 10.9 SSW 14.42"
PENSACOLA 3.8 N 13.88"
JACKSONVILLE 11.6 ENE 4.31"

...GEORGIA...
AUGUSTA/DANIEL FIELD 4.08"
WARNER ROBINS AFB 1.95"
VALDOSTA RGNL ARPT 1.50"

...LOUISIANA...
PONCHATOULA 11.8 E 5.64"
SLIDELL 4.29"
LACOMBE 1.4 N 3.73"
BATON ROUGE 2.5 E 2.26"
NEW ORLEANS/LAKEFRONT 2.13"

...MISSISSIPPI...
PASCAGOULA 7.50"
GULFPORT-BILOXI 6.52"
PASS CHRISTIAN 3.5 NE 4.69"

The Atlantic is quiet
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic today. The NOGAPS model is predicting formation of a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical depression in the Western Caribbean by Sunday, but none of the other models is going along with this idea. We could get something developing in the waters offshore of North Carolina late this week, along the edge of a cold front expected to move of the U.S. East Coast on Tuesday - Wednesday. The GFS model has suggested something could develop in this region in several of its recent runs.

Jeff Masters

flood (megulfbreeze)
Out the front window as our house flooded
flood
Flash (mobal)
I decided to turn around
Flash

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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Not sure if anyone else has noticed this but the temperature for the last 6 days has been way below average for the country... We've seen 175 record lows and 330 lowest maximum temperatures vs. just 104 record highs and 159 highest minimum temperatures... With the west expected to stay cold for the next week or two and the rest of the country expected to be near or slightly above average, is it possible we break the streak of above normal months this month?


You know this could get you banned for reporting this kind of stuff....
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Last year we had no humidity and temps 100 or greater every day this year it is almost 100 every day with dew points in 70s and heat indexes around 110, I think I like the dryer air better. :) I could not live closer to the Coast cause I hate humidity.
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G'afternoon everyone, it's looking nasty in Paducah.

Here's the bigger pictureLink Southern MS Valley Loop
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ECMWF 72 hours, possibly Tropical or Sub-Tropical Storm Chris off the US East Coast.


ECMWF 240 hours, beginnings of what might be Debby in the BOC. This is not our Caribbean system, this is a crossover system from the Pacific similar to Hermine in 2010.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23923
Not sure if anyone else has noticed this but the temperature for the last 6 days has been way below average for the country... We've seen 175 record lows and 330 lowest maximum temperatures vs. just 104 record highs and 159 highest minimum temperatures... With the west expected to stay cold for the next week or two and the rest of the country expected to be near or slightly above average, is it possible we break the streak of above normal months this month?
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


all is well,and you?

I'm just enjoying the dry weather that we're now having
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Think im gonna take a nap,it's 1:30pm PDT and I slept for crap last night. refresh my brain and bbl,a good afternoon to all.
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5220
Quoting nigel20:

Hey Joe...how are you doing?


all is well,and you?
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5220
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


93e will likly be deactivated it has been a dud

Maybe the disturbance south of Panama will be next area of interest!
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Quoting RitaEvac:


Actually when the heat index is lower than actual air temp....it is lovely :)


Well, lovely*ish*... last few days in Austin have been easily as unbearable as the worst days of 2011, what with the humidity...




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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Hi Nigel wb

Hey Joe...how are you doing?
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Looks like way below average in the west next week... Warm up here in the NE though



Since I live in Sooo Cal im still loving digging trofs in the summertime!! keeps us a bit cooler :) I haven't kept track of it ,but it seems the last few summers have been cooler overall due to summer troffing,but will have to go back and really see.
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5220
Quoting Neapolitan:
Speaking of Texas heat, this looks, er, lovely:

hot


Actually when the heat index is lower than actual air temp....it is lovely :)
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS UP TO 80 MPH.




Sounds like a derecho setting up........
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
LOL I think we got overkill on TD 05 W.......LOL
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5220
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
this could go into RI in 24 to 36 hrs from now
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Quoting nigel20:
Good afternoon everyone!
Hi Nigel wb
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5220
Looks like way below average in the west next week... Warm up here in the NE though

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Quoting SubtropicalHi:


Naaa...not yet.
From May 20 - June 9, 2011, the average high was over 95.

In 2012 it's the low 90s. (yesterday was the first day > 95)

I guess we've been about average or slightly above.

Summer is always pretty much a b#$%& around here anyway.

Who knows what the rest of the summer will be like?

Summer weather doesn't bother my husband or my kids. Last summer my husband and grown sons would get on their bikes and ride along Leon Creek for several hours. It doesn't bother them.

My daughter used to run cross country in the heat.

Me, I can barely walk around the block at night in the heat. (Thank God for health clubs)

I joined WU to track tropical weather but also found a great group who feels like I do about heat and drought - even the members from Florida:)


Technically it is for him, if he hasn't received the rain since he said and the grass is crunchy and dead, welp, it's 2011 all over again folks. This is the same post on the other page about people disregarding facts that are in the field and recording the actual conditions (925mb and 180mph winds on a rig in the gulf in a friggin Cane) nahhhhhh, can't be real, lets call it the way we see it. So it fits our number criteria, and looks good at the end of the year statistics.
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Speaking of Texas heat, this looks, er, lovely:

hot
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Vicious squall line in TN

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
238 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
SOUTHWESTERN DYER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
NORTHWESTERN FAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
HAYWOOD COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
LAUDERDALE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
NORTHEASTERN SHELBY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
TIPTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 330 PM CDT

* AT 238 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS UP TO 80 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM 14 MILES NORTH OF RIPLEY TO DYESS...OR
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 14 MILES NORTH OF RIPLEY TO 6 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF KEISER...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO KEISER...
LUXORA...OSCEOLA...WILSON...BARTLETT...BROWNSVILLE ...COVINGTON...
MILLINGTON...RIPLEY AND FORT PILLOW STATE PARK.

THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES AREAS NEAR CHISHOLM LAKE...OPEN LAKE...
SUNK LAKE AND THE CHUTE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.

&&

LAT...LON 3559 8918 3518 8989 3560 9028 3599 8961
TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 317DEG 36KT 3590 8959 3558 9013

$$
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93e will likly be deactivated it has been a dud
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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31917
Newer look at TD 05 West
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5220
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Until we get another TD.......Here's TD #5 in the west pacific

Looks good

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watch your local warnings folks.............SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
FLC065-073-GAC275-112045-
/O.NEW.KTAE.SV.W.0195.120611T1957Z-120611T2045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
357 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
NORTHEASTERN LEON COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
SOUTHEASTERN THOMAS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...

* UNTIL 445 PM EDT

* AT 352 PM EDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 13 MILES WEST OF
MONTICELLO...OR NEAR BAUM...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
CONCORD...MICCOSUKEE...LAKE MICCOSUKEE...FESTUS...FINCHER...LOIS...
CASA BLANCO...JARROTT...MONTIVILLA...ALMA...DILLS AND EVERETT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3078 8383 3055 8369 3044 8408 3062 8413
TIME...MOT...LOC 1956Z 249DEG 25KT 3053 8405

$$

17-GOULD
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Quoting lightning75:



Actually Buncrana has had some tornados before ...I should know live a couple of kms from it .

Link


Nothing new here, move along
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Quoting Articuno:
New show on the Weather Channel called the "Hurricane Hunters" premieres tonight at 9 p.m. EST.
Sounds good, I mean I know it's the weather channel, but I'll have to give it a chance.

I agree... I'm actually looking forward to it.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Debby is gonna be a B>>>>

lmao ikr
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Until we get another TD.......Here's TD #5 in the west pacific
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5220
Quoting Tygor:


It's 2011 all over again.


Naaa...not yet.
From May 20 - June 9, 2011, the average high was over 95.

In 2012 it's the low 90s. (yesterday was the first day > 95)

I guess we've been about average or slightly above.

Summer is always pretty much a b#$%& around here anyway.

Who knows what the rest of the summer will be like?

Summer weather doesn't bother my husband or my kids. Last summer my husband and grown sons would get on their bikes and ride along Leon Creek for several hours. It doesn't bother them.

My daughter used to run cross country in the heat.

Me, I can barely walk around the block at night in the heat. (Thank God for health clubs)

I joined WU to track tropical weather but also found a great group who feels like I do about heat and drought - even the members from Florida:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good afternoon everyone!
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New show on the Weather Channel called the "Hurricane Hunters" premieres tonight at 9 p.m. EST.
Sounds good, I mean I know it's the weather channel, but I'll have to give it a chance.
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THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
TROPICAL WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AND OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALIZED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST PORTION OF
PUERTO RICO DURING THE PASSAGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

$$
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Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5220
Yep, know its all but dead there - now to be around Jacksonville with a repower of Meredosia. 2 pH into carbonate formation? Doesn't sound like the greatest combination. Glad you got a little more, hope SoIL got a good one out of that branch, it looks to have a little more oomph to it.
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Quoting Felix2007:
Looks like we might have four named storms already before July even starts! If the forecast for an "average season" is correct, then there probably won't be anything else until August.

Not exactly... With the season expected to shut down by the end of September we need these storms if we're going to meet the predictions. Basically if we end up not getting anything by the end of June we begin to run the risk of a bust, at least from a strict numbers standpoint. As always it only takes one.
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Quoting ILwthrfan:
sigh...Everywhere but in our town.  It's a light bubble rain, but it's not adding up to much.  Storm split into two right before it made it's way through town. North and South about 5 miles between the two of them.  Hoping for at least a 1/4 inch out of it.  I don't know why every storm does this.  It's funny we have a nasty factory west of town that has the legend of killing storms.  Here's your evidence.





What kind of factory and what town?
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
To block what exactly?
whatever forms and comes into the gulf in the next 3-4 days maybe even into the weekend as someone stated we could have a tropical something in the gulf this weekend, if that high IS sitting there..it wont happen
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Looks like we might have four named storms already before July even starts! If the forecast for an "average season" is correct, then there probably won't be anything else until August.
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abitofaspin=e.ofbahamas
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Quoting dabirds:
Heck of a shield you have going, sorry to hear that's all. They inject(ed) deep? How was that CO2 sequestration supposed to work at the FutureGen if that stuff was down there? Guess we'll never know now.


It's all good, the stratiform rain deck doubled my rain total up to a
hair over .2 inch now. ~.21 or .22  It's better than a kick in the butt.
 I don't know if FUTUREGEN will ever get off the ground. Too many people
are opposed to it locally around here and then the two biggest reasons are
who's going to foot the bill and politics.  All that being said it has no
chance of being built this decade that is for sure. We
have CLASS I wells, which are the deepest, also translation for the deeper the
well, the worse the substance you are trying to bury.  An acidic, inorganic liquid waste that is a
byproduct of the production of food-grade amorphous silica.  Keep in mind this is what
they dump there now, not what they dumped then. 


Cabot
injection wells and HCl waste:


pH                 2.0

Al                   8.6
mg/L


Ca             83.9

Cl              829

Fe                23.5

Na               15.6

Sulfate      121

They inject this crap into a calcium-magnesium carbonate layer in the
earth.  Also called Dolomite. 

Link

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207. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05
3:00 AM JST June 12 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Caroline Islands

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 9.2N 144.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 9.9N 141.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Caroline Islands

Tiyan, Guam NWS
===============

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAIS AND ULITHI IN YAP STATE.
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12z GFS Ensembles favor NW Caribbean development.

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Alright i gotta go work out. again. hate two-a-days. anyway see yall lata
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6482
Quoting Grothar:


Are you trying to confuse me? :)
No Grothar :).If the storm forecast to develop off of the coast this week becomes Chris then the caribbean storm becomes Debby.But if it doesn't become Chris then the caribbean storm becomes Chris..is it all clicking?.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16898
..
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Quoting Grothar:


Are you trying to confuse me? :)


Im way confused.
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6482

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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