Damaging rains bust the drought in portions of Florida Panhandle

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on June 11, 2012

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Flood waters are receding in the rain-drenched Florida Panhandle and coastal Alabama today, where prodigious rains from a moist, tropical airmass interacting with a stalled front brought flooding that caused at least $20 million in damage to the Pensacola, Florida area. The most remarkable rains fell in West Pensacola, where 21.70" was recorded over the weekend. Pensacola airport received 13.13 inches of rain on Saturday, the city's second-highest 1-day rainfall total in recorded history. The only greater 1-day rainfall occurred on October 5, 1934, when Tropical Storm Nine brought 15.29" of rain to the city. Satellite loops of atmospheric precipitable water show that this weekend's heavy rains were caused by a flow of very moist tropical air that originated over the warm waters of the tropical Eastern Pacific and flowed northwards across Mexico and Central America to the Panhandle of Florida. This moist airmass has been replaced by relatively dry air over the Gulf, which should limit rainfall amounts today to the 1 - 2 inch range. A cold front expected to arrive on Tuesday will serve as the focus to bring additional rains of 1 - 2 inches per day to portions of the region Tuesday and Wednesday. Before this weekend's mighty rainstorm, the Florida Panhandle was experiencing severe to extreme drought, with 12 - 15 inches of rain needed to pull the region out of drought. This weekend's rains have busted the drought the extreme western Panhandle, but surrounding regions of Alabama, Georgia, and Florida still need 10+ inches of rain.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall for the Florida Panhandle from this weekend's rain storm.


Figure 2. Amount of precipitation needed to bust drought conditions over the U.S., as of June 2, 2012. A Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDI) of -0.5 is considered the boundary of where a drought exists. The 12 - 15 inches of rain that fell across the extreme western Florida Panhandle and coastal Alabama over the weekend were enough to bust the drought in those regions. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Some rainfall amounts from the storm, from 7 pm CDT Thu June 7, through 3 am CDT Sunday June 10, from the latest NOAA Storm Summary:

...ALABAMA...
TILLMANS CORNER 4.3 WNW 10.77"
GRAND BAY 0.6 NW 10.03"
MOBILE DOWNTOWN ARPT 8.97"

...FLORIDA...
WEST PENSACOLA 10.9 SW 21.70"
PENSACOLA RGNL ARPT 15.08"
MILTON 10.9 SSW 14.42"
PENSACOLA 3.8 N 13.88"
JACKSONVILLE 11.6 ENE 4.31"

...GEORGIA...
AUGUSTA/DANIEL FIELD 4.08"
WARNER ROBINS AFB 1.95"
VALDOSTA RGNL ARPT 1.50"

...LOUISIANA...
PONCHATOULA 11.8 E 5.64"
SLIDELL 4.29"
LACOMBE 1.4 N 3.73"
BATON ROUGE 2.5 E 2.26"
NEW ORLEANS/LAKEFRONT 2.13"

...MISSISSIPPI...
PASCAGOULA 7.50"
GULFPORT-BILOXI 6.52"
PASS CHRISTIAN 3.5 NE 4.69"

The Atlantic is quiet
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic today. The NOGAPS model is predicting formation of a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical depression in the Western Caribbean by Sunday, but none of the other models is going along with this idea. We could get something developing in the waters offshore of North Carolina late this week, along the edge of a cold front expected to move of the U.S. East Coast on Tuesday - Wednesday. The GFS model has suggested something could develop in this region in several of its recent runs.

Jeff Masters

flood (megulfbreeze)
Out the front window as our house flooded
flood
Flash (mobal)
I decided to turn around
Flash

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The models are having a hard time focusing energy because of the overall environment across the Atlantic during that time (the MJO should be in the ATL and strong). They may also have a hard time dealing with the fact that it is moving extremely quickly.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
984 mb!!..

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15672
Definitely Chris at 192 hours

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7837
Quoting ncstorm:


where are you?
La Ceiba Honduras. until know everything has been clear skies , and now that I am in vacations I want to enjoy all of my summer.
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Quoting rmjoeb1954:
So basically anywhere from Corpus Christy Texas to the Florida Keys 300 hours out. Great. Thanks Guys!!

Models are not going to be very helpful in this situation until the system begins to materialize in about 7 days.
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We may have an E storm..LOL..the tropical wave near the antilles is materializing on this run

(disclaimor..only model runs)

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15672
Quoting redwagon:
Good. The more instability over TX the better, to hold off the positive feedback loop that allowed that Dome of High Pressure during its formation to remain unchallenged last year.

Ya gotta nip that high pressure in the bud.
Whole different pattern this Spring compared to 2011.
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Noting 305. Patrap
"Oceanography expert Nathan Bindoff told the news organization, "This paper's important because, for the first time, we can actually say that we're virtually certain that the oceans have warmed, and that warming is caused not by natural processes, but by rising greenhouse gases primarily." He added, "We did it. No matter how you look at it, we did it. That's it."
Well they take a bit of time to catch up don't they but maybe with virtual admissions like the above at least it can go on record that somebody significant is a trifle perturbed by all thats going on!
Having said that we seem to have floods in the US, China, Taiwan, The UK, Australia and who knows where else?
I supose in its own time one of the future "official," papers might manage to identify a vague link between ocean temps, air temps and the fact that the warmer things get the more rain is probably going to fall, the more ice is going to melt and the more the humans are going to pulse the global warning ignore button!
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18Z GFS does it again. Low in the Caribbean with a tropical storm northeast of the Bahamas.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
Quoting ncstorm:
18Z Nogaps running..


Good gravy.. did we Texans just accidentally cause incantation of Chris with all our hand-holding, circling around with our legs crossed and candles burning and the recently passed-on chickens? That was not our intention.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3276
The GFS has the low sitting there ..takes it east then stall it

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15672

I'm still going with this as a possibility...
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Quoting ncstorm:
Left turn..Watch out Florida..Hurricane


That's a little different from the other model runs... Though it isn't the most accurate model of the group either.
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So far the 18z GFS has had 2 East Pac storms and the low off the East Coast.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7837
right turn..Watch out Florida..Hurricane

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15672
allisongotstuck
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Quoting allancalderini:
It doesn`t skirt the coast right? I don`t want my vacations to be ruin.


where are you?
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15672
Quoting washingtonian115:
All this anticipation.....

ncstorm...so basically it has a hurricane in the Yucatan?.


its still running but it has a tropical storm so far..last run had it hurricane strength at NO or around that area
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15672
Quoting ncstorm:
18Z Nogaps running..

It doesn`t skirt the coast right? I don`t want my vacations to be ruin.
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
All this anticipation.....

ncstorm...so basically it has a hurricane in the Yucatan?.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17088
Quoting allancalderini:
and it looks like we have Carlotta after all.

According to the GFS. Which doesn't mean much.
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Quoting allancalderini:
Oh my that looks like a tropical storm north of my coast.


Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15672
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No, the top one is the GFS. The bottom one is the ECMWF.

Oh xD
Was going based on map appearance. Thanks.
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Quoting ncstorm:


what do you think? too far offshore for us to see affects from this?

Yeah, high pressure should be in control of our weather by then.

Quoting allancalderini:
and it looks like we have Carlotta after all.

The GFS is the only one showing that. We'll have to see what happens over the next three days. Personally, I don't think we're getting Carlotta at all this week.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
GFS as the nogaps for development..

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15672
Quoting ncstorm:
18Z Nogaps running..

Oh my that looks like a tropical storm north of my coast.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No, just a weak tropical depression (if that) for the southernmost one. The GFS isn't really enthusiastic about development during the 12Z run; the ECMWF is however.



and it looks like we have Carlotta after all.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No, just a weak tropical depression (if that) for the southernmost one. The GFS isn't really enthusiastic about development during the 12Z run; the ECMWF is however.





what do you think? too far offshore for us to see affects from this?
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15672
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

That top one is ukmet right?

No, the top one is the GFS. The bottom one is the ECMWF.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
18Z Nogaps running..

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15672
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No, just a weak tropical depression (if that) for the southernmost one. The GFS isn't really enthusiastic about development during the 12Z run; the ECMWF is however.




That top one is ukmet right?
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Quoting ncstorm:
It looks like two storms on the east coast? one goes out to sea and the other one drifts south?


No, just a weak tropical depression (if that) for the southernmost one. The GFS isn't really enthusiastic about development during the 12Z run; the ECMWF is however.



Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
TD 05W

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Quoting washingtonian115:
You've came to the rescue.What type of stuff is that model on?.


LOL..I dont know..looks like its in the business of splitting up systems now..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15672
Quoting washingtonian115:
Does the ECWMF show a caribbean system at all?.

The euro doesn't forecast but 10 days out, so it only shows the formation of a 1006 mb low in BOC.
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Quoting Doppler22:

Looks like our friends in Texas are gonna get some rain :)

Yep!
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Quoting ncstorm:
It looks like two storms on the east coast? one goes out to sea and the other one drifts south?

You've came to the rescue.What type of stuff is that model on?.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17088
It looks like two storms on the east coast? one goes out to sea and the other one drifts south?

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15672
Where have people gone?.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17088
New forecast:
Chances of getting....
Chris by July: 75%
Debby by July: 50%
Ernesto by July: 10%
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Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Something Tropical into Texas would be Great news as long as it is not the Storm from Last Year that just brought dust. :) Whimpy tropical system last year almost brought me 1 cloud.


NWS post-season eventually re-classified that storm to TS-HFLYTJBDAW (Hybrid Storm From Last Year That Just Brought Dust And Wildfires).
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3276
"Six decades of U.S. tornadoes visualized in one stunning map"

Link

I might be a bit late to the party here, but pretty cool to look at this!
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Human-Induced Ocean Warming Study Addresses The 'Dominant Role' Of People

Despite the onslaught of politicians attempting to project an air of question around man-made climate change, studies continue to emerge proving the connection between human actions and our changing environment. The most recent study, published in Nature Climate Change, finds an "anthropogenic fingerprint" (human influence) on our warming oceans.

The study, "Human-Induced Global Ocean Warming On Multidecadal Timescales," was conducted by researchers in the U.S., Australia, Japan and India. Based on observations of rising upper-ocean temperatures, the researchers used improved estimates of ocean temperatures to examine the causes of our warming ocean.
According to a Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory press release, the study shows that over the past 50 years, observed ocean warming is explained only when greenhouse gas increases are included in the models.

Lead author and LLNL climate scientist Peter Gleckler said in the press release, "The bottom line is that this study substantially strengthens the conclusion that most of the observed global ocean warming over the past 50 years is attributable to human activities."

Gleckler added, "Although we performed a series of tests to account for the impact of various uncertainties, we found no evidence that simultaneous warming of the upper layers of all seven seas can be explained by natural climate variability alone. Humans have played a dominant role."

Report co-author Dr. John Church explained to Australia's ABC News AM that "Natural variability could only explain 10 percent, or thereabouts, of the observed change."

Oceanography expert Nathan Bindoff told the news organization, "This paper's important because, for the first time, we can actually say that we're virtually certain that the oceans have warmed, and that warming is caused not by natural processes, but by rising greenhouse gases primarily." He added, "We did it. No matter how you look at it, we did it. That's it."

The recent ocean warming study has been released on the heels of other disturbing climate change reports.

Arctic monitoring stations are now measuring over 400 parts per million of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, a disturbing milestone that far surpasses the 350 ppm mark that many scientists consider the threshold separating safe from dangerous.

Researchers recently warned in Nature that the world is heading toward a tipping point of disastrous consequences driven by human-led increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide and rising global temperatures:

"The plausibility of a planetary-scale ‘tipping point’ highlights the need to improve biological forecasting by detecting early warning signs of critical transitions on global as well as local scales, and by detecting feedbacks that promote such transitions. It is also necessary to address root causes of how humans are forcing biological changes."

Despite the ominous findings, some politicians are still attempting to project an element of doubt on issues surrounding human-induced climate change. A Virginia lawmaker recently fought to omit mentions of "climate change" and "sea level rise" from a coastal flooding study, telling the BBC, "The jury's still out" on whether humans contribute to global warming. Despite his claim, studies such as the recent ocean warming one are turning in a pretty clear verdict.

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248 MAweatherboy1: Not sure if anyone else has noticed this but the temperature for the last 6 days has been way below average for the country... We've seen 175 record lows and 330 lowest maximum temperatures vs. just 104 record highs and 159 highest minimum temperatures... With the west expected to stay cold for the next week or two and the rest of the country expected to be near or slightly above average, is it possible we break the streak of above normal months this month?

oh sweet cheez its... The Glaciers are coming! Head for the Border!! The Glaciers are coming!!!
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Facts have a tendency to do that I guess...


I still think we'll see Carlotta... It will form from a different area than 93E though, closer to the coast.

The National Hurricane Center doesn't seem too sure about it. They think the GFS is going overboard.


TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JUN 11 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 08N79W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N96W 1010
MB TO 10N102W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N113W 1008 MB TO 07N124W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N124W TO
06N130W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS N
OF 03N BETWEEN 80W AND 86W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 90W AND 94W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90-120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 13N98W TO 05N99W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 104W AND 108W.

...DISCUSSION...

1008 MB BROAD LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 11N113W EMBEDDED IN THE
MONSOON TROUGH. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME
LESS ORGANIZED AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY
LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES
MISSED THE LOW ALTHOUGH AN AREA OF FRESH WINDS IS LIKELY
OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM OF THE LOW CENTER...EXCEPT IN THE SW
QUADRANT. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20
KT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE THE LOW DISSIPATES. THIS
SYSTEM NOW HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS W OR W-NW.

THE EDGE OF AN ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED FRESH
NORTHERLY WINDS ATTEMPTING TO BREACH THE WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN
125W AND 131W WITH 8 FT SEAS ACCOMPANYING THESE WINDS. EXPECT
THESE WINDS TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TO 27N
DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WHILE NORTHERLY SWELL BUILDS TO 9
FT.

THE GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRES AREA
SW OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY MID WEEK. THE POSSIBLE LOW IS
FORECAST TO TRACK NW INTO SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO NEAR THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC OR CENTRAL AMERICA LATER THIS WEEK WHILE BECOMING
STRONGER. THE GFS MODEL SOLUTION HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG LOW...WHILE THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS
MAINTAIN AN ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH WITH MODERATE TO FRESH W-SW
WINDS S OF THE TROUGH. NEITHER MODEL DEVELOPS A SIGNIFICANT LOW
PRES SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO DEPICT A WEAK LOW ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH UNLESS MORE SUPPORT FOR THE GFS SOLUTION OCCURS.

STRONG EASTERLY WINDS OVER WESTERN CARIBBEAN ARE SEEPING THROUGH
CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND DOWNWIND TO 90W.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS. CYCLONIC VORTICITY FROM THE ENHANCED EASTERLY
WINDS MAY AID INITIAL SPIN-UP OF ANY NEW LOW PRES AREAS THAT MAY
DEVELOP IN THIS GENERAL REGION LATER THIS WEEK.

A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER SE MEXICO
BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER INTERIOR MEXICO...AND LOWER PRES IN THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. FRESH
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL COMMENCE TUE EVENING AND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH WED EVENING UNDER THIS SCENARIO.

$$
LEWITSKY
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.