Damaging rains bust the drought in portions of Florida Panhandle

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on June 11, 2012

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Flood waters are receding in the rain-drenched Florida Panhandle and coastal Alabama today, where prodigious rains from a moist, tropical airmass interacting with a stalled front brought flooding that caused at least $20 million in damage to the Pensacola, Florida area. The most remarkable rains fell in West Pensacola, where 21.70" was recorded over the weekend. Pensacola airport received 13.13 inches of rain on Saturday, the city's second-highest 1-day rainfall total in recorded history. The only greater 1-day rainfall occurred on October 5, 1934, when Tropical Storm Nine brought 15.29" of rain to the city. Satellite loops of atmospheric precipitable water show that this weekend's heavy rains were caused by a flow of very moist tropical air that originated over the warm waters of the tropical Eastern Pacific and flowed northwards across Mexico and Central America to the Panhandle of Florida. This moist airmass has been replaced by relatively dry air over the Gulf, which should limit rainfall amounts today to the 1 - 2 inch range. A cold front expected to arrive on Tuesday will serve as the focus to bring additional rains of 1 - 2 inches per day to portions of the region Tuesday and Wednesday. Before this weekend's mighty rainstorm, the Florida Panhandle was experiencing severe to extreme drought, with 12 - 15 inches of rain needed to pull the region out of drought. This weekend's rains have busted the drought the extreme western Panhandle, but surrounding regions of Alabama, Georgia, and Florida still need 10+ inches of rain.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall for the Florida Panhandle from this weekend's rain storm.


Figure 2. Amount of precipitation needed to bust drought conditions over the U.S., as of June 2, 2012. A Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDI) of -0.5 is considered the boundary of where a drought exists. The 12 - 15 inches of rain that fell across the extreme western Florida Panhandle and coastal Alabama over the weekend were enough to bust the drought in those regions. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Some rainfall amounts from the storm, from 7 pm CDT Thu June 7, through 3 am CDT Sunday June 10, from the latest NOAA Storm Summary:

...ALABAMA...
TILLMANS CORNER 4.3 WNW 10.77"
GRAND BAY 0.6 NW 10.03"
MOBILE DOWNTOWN ARPT 8.97"

...FLORIDA...
WEST PENSACOLA 10.9 SW 21.70"
PENSACOLA RGNL ARPT 15.08"
MILTON 10.9 SSW 14.42"
PENSACOLA 3.8 N 13.88"
JACKSONVILLE 11.6 ENE 4.31"

...GEORGIA...
AUGUSTA/DANIEL FIELD 4.08"
WARNER ROBINS AFB 1.95"
VALDOSTA RGNL ARPT 1.50"

...LOUISIANA...
PONCHATOULA 11.8 E 5.64"
SLIDELL 4.29"
LACOMBE 1.4 N 3.73"
BATON ROUGE 2.5 E 2.26"
NEW ORLEANS/LAKEFRONT 2.13"

...MISSISSIPPI...
PASCAGOULA 7.50"
GULFPORT-BILOXI 6.52"
PASS CHRISTIAN 3.5 NE 4.69"

The Atlantic is quiet
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic today. The NOGAPS model is predicting formation of a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical depression in the Western Caribbean by Sunday, but none of the other models is going along with this idea. We could get something developing in the waters offshore of North Carolina late this week, along the edge of a cold front expected to move of the U.S. East Coast on Tuesday - Wednesday. The GFS model has suggested something could develop in this region in several of its recent runs.

Jeff Masters

flood (megulfbreeze)
Out the front window as our house flooded
flood
Flash (mobal)
I decided to turn around
Flash

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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

It doesn't matter... 2010 is only 2 years ago (One really since the full 2012 season hasn't happened yet) and nothing has changed with the model skill levels.


so far this season I believe the Nogaps has been performing better than the GFS..and again I might be wrong and it could have been the CMC but she posted it right after Beryl..right now this season and the storms that develop is what I care about and how the models are performing not 2010:)
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14462
Quoting ncstorm:
GFS is all over the place..it just created another storm in the GOM and took it in NO..

Yeah, see? Patrap gets it because we Texans didn't throw the bones right, once again.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
We need Levi to come and analize all about the models and patterns.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14014
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm sorry, but that's just ridiculous.


Did yall read Dr. Masters blog..if its a poor model as you guys say, then why would he even mention it?

The NOGAPS model is predicting formation of a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical depression in the Western Caribbean by Sunday, but none of the other models is going along with this idea.

wait and see..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14462
Quoting ncstorm:


that is 2010..LOL..Skyepony has the correct chart..

It doesn't matter... 2010 is only 2 years ago (One really since the full 2012 season hasn't happened yet) and nothing has changed with the model skill levels.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7614
So could we get Chris Debby and Ernesto?.Or are the models going nuts because it'll be a strong MJO and don't know what to do with all the energy.Hmmmm.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16412
Quoting ncstorm:


Nope..

Euro
CMC
Nogaps
UkMet
GFS--it had an upgrade and is still performing poorly

I'm sorry, but that's just ridiculous.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31466
Quoting ncstorm:


Nope..

Euro
CMC
Nogaps
UkMet
GFS--it had an upgrade and is still performing poorly

You can't seriously say the GFS is worse than the NOGAPS and UKMET can you? Maybe the CMC gives it a run for the second place spot sometimes but it's at least number 3.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7614
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Never mind, found it myself... Look at where the NOGAPS is on this chart



that is 2010..LOL..Skyepony has the correct chart..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14462
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Can you come up with a worse one, lol?

Anyone have that chart that shows model skill levels?

Never mind, found it myself... Look at where the NOGAPS is on this chart

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7614
Quoting redwagon:

Good gravy.. did we Texans just accidentally cause incantation of Chris with all our hand-holding, circling around with our legs crossed and candles burning and the recently passed-on chickens? That was not our intention.


I'm from Texas but I'm not holding hands, lighting candles or singing kumbaya for something that may damage my home, kill my cattle and flood my property.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
In terms of nailing short-term development, ECMWF wins. In terms of nailing long-term development, GFS wins. In terms of not performing well in anything a great majority of the time, the NOGAPS wins.

Personally...

1.) ECMWF
2.) GFS
3.) UKMET
4.) CMC
5.) NOGAPS


Nope..

Euro
CMC
Nogaps
UkMet
GFS--it had an upgrade and is still performing poorly
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14462
I love how the 18z GFS storm shows a system about to hit Texas then is like 'err.. you know, forget that lets go mess with Florida again!' Also, the GFS continues to forecast the development of a system in the Bahamas in 180 hours.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23574
Quoting rmjoeb1954:


you missing the excitement wash. cat 2 up the chessapeake right up to dc. j/k. lol
Lol.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16412
Quoting washingtonian115:
The models predict any where from a weak storm to a CAT 2 storm to a storm splitting in two.What?.Lol.


The GFS has hit everyone with the caribbean storm..next run will be africa..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14462
Quoting rmjoeb1954:


No!! They had enough rain. Send her to Texas!

GFS at 336 hours is only slightly more reliable than the NOGAPS, lol.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7614
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The models are having a hard time focusing energy because of the overall environment across the Atlantic during that time (the MJO should be in the ATL and strong). They may also have a hard time dealing with the fact that it is moving extremely quickly.
That's pretty much true as far as I'm concerned. Maybe the broadness of the low pressures might also have something to do with model flip-flops. We could get whatever energy is out there pulsing in the Atlantic or Pacific, or both, or neither. We'll know a little bit more in 3-5 days.
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Have a little thunderboomer trying to flare up to my WSW.

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GFS is all over the place..it just created another storm in the GOM and took it in NO..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14462
The models predict any where from a weak storm to a CAT 2 storm to a storm splitting in two.What?.Lol.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16412
In terms of nailing short-term development, ECMWF wins. In terms of nailing long-term development, GFS wins. In terms of not performing well in anything a great majority of the time, the NOGAPS wins.

Personally...

1.) ECMWF
2.) GFS
3.) UKMET
4.) CMC
5.) NOGAPS
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31466
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Because it's the worst model.


Well that depends. usually for this kind of prediction on the south west caribean it always has been on the spot. and watching the maps their is enough energy for that to happen. i will put my hands on the fire tomorrow afternoon ,right now its just sit back and watch trolls on the blog
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Quoting rmjoeb1954:


If the checkout gal at home depot asks my why the frantic hurry for plywood tonight, I'll just tell her the Nogaps told me so. 300 hours out...


LOL..but the Nogaps only goes out to 180 hours..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14462
Quoting mtyspider:


Hey am on San Pedro Sula. I usually read the guys in roatan finally another one from the mainland
Finally someone that isn`t from Roatan happy to see another honduran in here. what is up? is SPS still hot as always?
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Quoting allancalderini:
Not really.

Can you come up with a worse one, lol?

Anyone have that chart that shows model skill levels?
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7614
336 hours on the GFS


Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7614
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Because it's the worst model.
Not really.
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Quoting rmjoeb1954:


Why?

Because it's the least reliable out of all the others.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31466
U dissing the NOGAPS?

Yes.

(~200hr model throwdown, lol.)
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

link?

Link
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14462
Quoting rmjoeb1954:


Why?

Because it's the worst model.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7614
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

It's the NOGAPS vs. all the rest on this one though... I think I'll take all the rest.


the Nogaps was the only model developing the storm .now the other models are on its bandwagon..I dont know you guys may have to give the Nogaps its due if this develops..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14462
Quoting allancalderini:
La Ceiba Honduras. until know everything has been clear skies , and now that I am in vacations I want to enjoy all of my summer.


Hey am on San Pedro Sula. I usually read the guys in roatan finally another one from the mainland
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Quoting ncstorm:
984 mb!!..


link?
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Quoting rmjoeb1954:


U dissing the NOGAPS?

Yes.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7614
Quoting ncstorm:
984 mb!!..


It's the NOGAPS vs. all the rest on this one though... I think I'll take all the rest.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7614
The models are having a hard time focusing energy because of the overall environment across the Atlantic during that time (the MJO should be in the ATL and strong). They may also have a hard time dealing with the fact that it is moving extremely quickly.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31466

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.