Damaging rains bust the drought in portions of Florida Panhandle

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on June 11, 2012

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Flood waters are receding in the rain-drenched Florida Panhandle and coastal Alabama today, where prodigious rains from a moist, tropical airmass interacting with a stalled front brought flooding that caused at least $20 million in damage to the Pensacola, Florida area. The most remarkable rains fell in West Pensacola, where 21.70" was recorded over the weekend. Pensacola airport received 13.13 inches of rain on Saturday, the city's second-highest 1-day rainfall total in recorded history. The only greater 1-day rainfall occurred on October 5, 1934, when Tropical Storm Nine brought 15.29" of rain to the city. Satellite loops of atmospheric precipitable water show that this weekend's heavy rains were caused by a flow of very moist tropical air that originated over the warm waters of the tropical Eastern Pacific and flowed northwards across Mexico and Central America to the Panhandle of Florida. This moist airmass has been replaced by relatively dry air over the Gulf, which should limit rainfall amounts today to the 1 - 2 inch range. A cold front expected to arrive on Tuesday will serve as the focus to bring additional rains of 1 - 2 inches per day to portions of the region Tuesday and Wednesday. Before this weekend's mighty rainstorm, the Florida Panhandle was experiencing severe to extreme drought, with 12 - 15 inches of rain needed to pull the region out of drought. This weekend's rains have busted the drought the extreme western Panhandle, but surrounding regions of Alabama, Georgia, and Florida still need 10+ inches of rain.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall for the Florida Panhandle from this weekend's rain storm.


Figure 2. Amount of precipitation needed to bust drought conditions over the U.S., as of June 2, 2012. A Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDI) of -0.5 is considered the boundary of where a drought exists. The 12 - 15 inches of rain that fell across the extreme western Florida Panhandle and coastal Alabama over the weekend were enough to bust the drought in those regions. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Some rainfall amounts from the storm, from 7 pm CDT Thu June 7, through 3 am CDT Sunday June 10, from the latest NOAA Storm Summary:

...ALABAMA...
TILLMANS CORNER 4.3 WNW 10.77"
GRAND BAY 0.6 NW 10.03"
MOBILE DOWNTOWN ARPT 8.97"

...FLORIDA...
WEST PENSACOLA 10.9 SW 21.70"
PENSACOLA RGNL ARPT 15.08"
MILTON 10.9 SSW 14.42"
PENSACOLA 3.8 N 13.88"
JACKSONVILLE 11.6 ENE 4.31"

...GEORGIA...
AUGUSTA/DANIEL FIELD 4.08"
WARNER ROBINS AFB 1.95"
VALDOSTA RGNL ARPT 1.50"

...LOUISIANA...
PONCHATOULA 11.8 E 5.64"
SLIDELL 4.29"
LACOMBE 1.4 N 3.73"
BATON ROUGE 2.5 E 2.26"
NEW ORLEANS/LAKEFRONT 2.13"

...MISSISSIPPI...
PASCAGOULA 7.50"
GULFPORT-BILOXI 6.52"
PASS CHRISTIAN 3.5 NE 4.69"

The Atlantic is quiet
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic today. The NOGAPS model is predicting formation of a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical depression in the Western Caribbean by Sunday, but none of the other models is going along with this idea. We could get something developing in the waters offshore of North Carolina late this week, along the edge of a cold front expected to move of the U.S. East Coast on Tuesday - Wednesday. The GFS model has suggested something could develop in this region in several of its recent runs.

Jeff Masters

flood (megulfbreeze)
Out the front window as our house flooded
flood
Flash (mobal)
I decided to turn around
Flash

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852. AussieStorm
1:00 PM GMT on June 12, 2012
Perth Lightning monitor.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15750
851. trHUrrIXC5MMX
12:49 PM GMT on June 12, 2012
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
NHC is monitoring an area of disturbed weather which has formed over the eastern North Pacific Ocean several hundred miles west-southwest of the coast of Costa Rica. Some slow development of this system is possible during the next day or two as it moves to the west-northwest.



This one has all chances...any models?
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
850. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
12:48 PM GMT on June 12, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
849. MoeWest
12:48 PM GMT on June 12, 2012
Thick SAL in eastern Atlantic.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/salmain.php ?&prod=splitE&time
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 56
848. AussieStorm
12:46 PM GMT on June 12, 2012
Quoting naviguesser:
Stay safe Aussie - love that Aussie humor - "Mr. Gale is advising people to make their homes safe." At least you haven't had any warnings from Mr. Giantmeteor.


Well, Perth is 2000miles away from here in Sydney so I am nice and safe here. It's good to watch from afar.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15750
847. naviguesser
12:43 PM GMT on June 12, 2012
Stay safe Aussie - love that Aussie humor - "Mr. Gale is advising people to make their homes safe." At least you haven't had any warnings from Mr. Giantmeteor.
Member Since: September 15, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 71
846. GeoffreyWPB
12:39 PM GMT on June 12, 2012
NHC is monitoring an area of disturbed weather which has formed over the eastern North Pacific Ocean several hundred miles west-southwest of the coast of Costa Rica. Some slow development of this system is possible during the next day or two as it moves to the west-northwest.

Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10589
845. aspectre
12:37 PM GMT on June 12, 2012
812 StormTracker2K: Meanwhile Houston to the FL Panhandle could get rocked today by this MCS.

That MCS was dragged ENEastward out of Texas by the derecho that bombed down southward upon westernAlabama, Mississippi, and NEastern-to-southernLouisiana last night thru early this morning.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
844. luvtogolf
12:30 PM GMT on June 12, 2012
Crown Weather is very bullish on Tropical Development within the next 10 days.

Mischief Possible Off Of US Southeast Coast By Late This Week; I Continue To Believe That Tropical Development Is Very Possible In The Northwest Caribbean Or Southern Gulf Of Mexico Within The Next 7 to 9 Days
Tuesday, June 12, 2012 6:07 am
by Rob Lightbown

The overall weather pattern for the rest of this week into this weekend consists of a frontal system passage across the Florida Peninsula on Thursday into Friday, across the Florida Straits on Saturday and into the northwestern Caribbean late this weekend into early next week. At the same time, an area of low pressure is forecast to develop about halfway between the US Southeast coast and Bermuda from Friday into this weekend. This particular low pressure system is then forecast to shoot off to the northeast into the open Atlantic by early next week. There is some chance for this low pressure system to acquire sub-tropical characteristics and it will be something that will be monitored in the coming days.

Now, the entire pattern, including the fact that the upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation will be moving into Octants 8 and 1 starting around June 18th indicates that the atmosphere may be setting up in a way that leads to tropical development in the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico within the next week. The Tropical Precipitable Water loop from CIMSS clearly shows a surge of energy tracking across the central Caribbean. This surge of energy is expected to reach the western Caribbean by early Wednesday morning. I think that the environment is more favorable in the western Caribbean and an increase in thunderstorm activity is expected across the western Caribbean by Wednesday.

The overall wind shear forecast is for a more favorable environment in the western Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico by this weekend into next week. All of these factors, the favorable phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation, increasing energy and moisture and lowering wind shear values leads me to believe that tropical cyclone development is quite possible by this weekend or early next week.

Member Since: June 12, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 886
843. AussieStorm
12:29 PM GMT on June 12, 2012
Quoting pottery:

BAH to that...
Cold is OK. Rain is OK.
The 2 of them together, with wind blowing...... you can keep it!

I have cold and rain, no more wind but expecting the storm that hit Perth on Sunday.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15750
842. GeoffreyWPB
12:28 PM GMT on June 12, 2012
The big picture...

Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10589
841. AussieStorm
12:26 PM GMT on June 12, 2012
Quoting severstorm:
Wow its either you get the rain and lots of it or you get nothing around the world. evening Aussiestorm. How are things down under.

Busy watching this right now.

Residents warned intense storm battering coast

A storm front has begun moving across WA's south coast and is expected to hit the Perth area later tonight.

Winds equivalent to a category two cyclone are forecast and residents are being warned the storm could cause further damage following Sunday's wild weather.

The weather bureau says winds up to 125km/h will batter the south coast, the South West, Perth and north to Geraldton, and extend inland to Laverton in the Goldfields.

There is also a risk of thunderstorms and small hail as the front crosses.

Wind gusts of 96km/h have already been recorded in the South West at Cape Naturaliste while winds of 85km/h have been reported in Busselton.

The Fire and Emergency Services Authority's Allen Gale says the storm should hit Perth later tonight and wreak havoc through the night.

The strongest gusts are expected to hit the metropolitan area between 10:00 pm and 2:00 am local time.

Mr Gale is advising people to make their homes safe.

"Secure any damage, any debris that's laying around from previous events, and don't put your bins out if it's bin night," he said.

FESA is asking that calls for assistance are restricted to problems that pose a hazard to people's safety.

Flights cancelled

Some flights into and out of Perth have been cancelled.

Perth Airport's Brad Geatches has told the ABC that Virgin Australia has cancelled arrivals and departures between 9:00 pm and midnight local time.

"This means there will be five arrivals and two departures that will be delayed," he said.

Mr Geatches says the airport is expected to remain open.

"We'd only close it if the infrastructure wasn't safe, if the aircraft movement areas or the buildings became unsafe, we're not expecting that to be the case.

"So contact your airline and seek clarification."

About 8,000 homes are still without power following Sunday's storm.

FESA's Lloyd Bailey says emergency crews from the eastern states have arrived in Perth to help repair damage to the network.

He says there are plans to bring in additional help from interstate if required.

"At the moment we have about 250 volunteers and career personnel on the ground, working to shore up the area between Rockingham and Bunbury," he said.

"Over the next few days we expect to have those same numbers available, however, they have been on the go in a lot of instances since Thursday.

"We are putting in place contingencies for additional assistance if required from interstate."
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15750
840. pottery
12:25 PM GMT on June 12, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:

I don't really care about the rain, its the cold I don't like. Currently 54.7F here right now, expected to get down to 48F. brrrrr

BAH to that...
Cold is OK. Rain is OK.
The 2 of them together, with wind blowing...... you can keep it!
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23105
839. weathermanwannabe
12:23 PM GMT on June 12, 2012
Morning. Nasty storms and squall line moving down towards the Gulf coast headed towards southern LA at the moment. A little odd to see such a squall line moving due South as opposed to sweeping from left to right.

Thank God the jet stream is not located down there thus not a big threat for tornadoes but impressive straight line winds will occur nonetheless from many of these storms; it could have been much worse.

Link
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8308
838. AussieStorm
12:23 PM GMT on June 12, 2012
Quoting pottery:

Yeah, I was reading your earlier posts.
Pretty Dread stuff there.

Stay safe and dry !

I don't really care about the rain, its the cold I don't like. Currently 54.7F here right now, expected to get down to 48F. brrrrr
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15750
837. StormTracker2K
12:20 PM GMT on June 12, 2012
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
836. SFLWeatherman
12:20 PM GMT on June 12, 2012
Wow did you guys see that if the storm goes to New Orleans it goes back in to the Gulf of Mexico
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4208
835. severstorm
12:16 PM GMT on June 12, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:


Had 6.18" here at my place in 48hrs. Now i am watching a system that is approaching Perth.
Wow its either you get the rain and lots of it or you get nothing around the world. evening Aussiestorm. How are things down under.
Member Since: November 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 956
834. pottery
12:16 PM GMT on June 12, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:


Had 6.18" here at my place in 48hrs. Now i am watching a system that is approaching Perth.

Yeah, I was reading your earlier posts.
Pretty Dread stuff there.

Stay safe and dry !
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23105
833. AtHomeInTX
12:14 PM GMT on June 12, 2012
Statement as of 7:05 AM CDT on June 12, 2012

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of

central and southern Louisiana
southwest Mississippi
southeast Texas
coastal waters

Effective this Tuesday morning and afternoon from 705 am until
200 PM CDT.

Hail to 1.5 inches in diameter... thunderstorm wind gusts to 70
mph... and dangerous lightning are possible in these areas.

The Severe Thunderstorm Watch area is approximately along and 65
statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles north
northeast of New Orleans Louisiana to 55 miles northwest of Port
Arthur Texas. For a complete depiction of the watch see the
associated watch outline update (wous64 kwns wou0).

Remember... a Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally
do produce tornadoes.

Other watch information... continue... ww 379...

Discussion... overnight MCS has left an elongated W-E cold pool
across nrn la. Associated gust front likely will continue to serve as the focus for strong to svr tstms through at least midday as the
boundary edges swd into modest but very moist sly low lvl flow.
Coupled with continuing presence of deep eml above the moist
layer... setup may yield additional episodes of bowing with wet
microbursts/locally dmgg wind.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 459
832. aspectre
12:13 PM GMT on June 12, 2012
Major Meteor Impact Event kicks off the Younger Dryas? More evidence found supporting the hypothesis.
While the YoungerDryasImpactHypothesis is said to have started making its rounds in 2007, there have been many such articles on the topic (in BobKobres' LARGE website on ImpactEvents) which have been online for as long as the WorldWideWeb, ie since 1994.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
831. GeoffreyWPB
12:12 PM GMT on June 12, 2012
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10589
830. AussieStorm
12:11 PM GMT on June 12, 2012
Quoting pottery:
Good Morning.
Raining again at 11n 61w, Trinidad.
Going to be a wet week here again.

Like in some other places, it seems...


Had 6.18" here at my place in 48hrs. Now i am watching a system that is approaching Perth.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15750
829. SFLWeatherman
12:07 PM GMT on June 12, 2012
Wow Japan
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4208
828. pottery
12:06 PM GMT on June 12, 2012
Good Morning.
Raining again at 11n 61w, Trinidad.
Going to be a wet week here again.

Like in some other places, it seems...
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23105
827. severstorm
12:05 PM GMT on June 12, 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K:



Geesh! We had a very intense storm roll thru here Sunday evening. Last week alone I picked up 6.5" of rain with 7.10" for the month so far. So yes it has been very wet here how about you?


Yes its been very wet here. I've received just over6 inches last week and i'm at with last nights rain 7.02 for the month.
Member Since: November 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 956
826. StormTracker2K
12:04 PM GMT on June 12, 2012
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Those storms are moving east not south, they could go right over the flooded areas of the southeast?


True but outflow boundries from those storms may initiate more storms further south closer to Houston later.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
825. StormTracker2K
12:01 PM GMT on June 12, 2012
Quoting severstorm:
Morning All hey stormtracker2k we had a very heavy storm here last night. came over the house with rotation not to strong didnt think much of it. Something hit my daughters moms carport.Picked the carport up and slammed it down on there trucks.Her mom said she saw something dark coming and hoping up and down and the disappered in the heavy rain. All this 5 miles from my house.



Geesh! We had a very intense storm roll thru here Sunday evening. Last week alone I picked up 6.5" of rain with 7.10" for the month so far. So yes it has been very wet here how about you?

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
824. SFLWeatherman
11:58 AM GMT on June 12, 2012
Day 7
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4208
823. SFLWeatherman
11:57 AM GMT on June 12, 2012
That would get bad if it goes to S FL
Quoting StormTracker2K:
GOM is getting mighty warm.

Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4208
822. AussieStorm
11:56 AM GMT on June 12, 2012
Pressure is really dropping at Cape Naturaliste Western Australia.



BTW, That is Sundays system on the left. I would say, maybe 982mb.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15750
821. Neapolitan
11:56 AM GMT on June 12, 2012
New EPAC invest:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep942012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201206121152
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 94, 2012, DB, O, 2012061212, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP942012
EP, 94, 2012061212, , BEST, 0, 75N, 860W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13306
820. bohonkweatherman
11:56 AM GMT on June 12, 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Meanwhile Houston to the FL Panhandle could get rocked today by this MCS.

Those storms are moving east not south, they could go right over the flooded areas of the southeast?
Member Since: July 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348
819. icmoore
11:54 AM GMT on June 12, 2012
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
go to me in S FL yes =:)


Good morning all! Just checking to see what doom may be on the horizon and be sure the Tampa shield is up and strong. If it has Florida's name on it you can have it SFWeatherman :)
Member Since: July 18, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 4141
818. severstorm
11:53 AM GMT on June 12, 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Yeah it has too considering we have hardly anything to look at right now in the Caribbean. This to me appears to a moonsoonal trough type developement and these type of systems take days to organize.

Morning All hey stormtracker2k we had a very heavy storm here last night. came over the house with rotation not to strong didnt think much of it. Something hit my daughters moms carport.Picked the carport up and slammed it down on there trucks.Her mom said she saw something dark coming and hoping up and down and the disappered in the heavy rain. All this 5 miles from my house.
Member Since: November 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 956
817. wunderkidcayman
11:53 AM GMT on June 12, 2012
wow guys models just jumped right back on W caribbean development Nogaps ECMWF GFS well I guess I better start preping myself
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9598
816. StormTracker2K
11:52 AM GMT on June 12, 2012
GOM is getting mighty warm.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
815. JNCali
11:48 AM GMT on June 12, 2012
had a fun day yesterday running around Southern TN dodging TS. Minimal hail and only a couple of healthy wind gusts pushed the truck around.
Member Since: September 9, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1032
814. presslord
11:44 AM GMT on June 12, 2012
Quoting ncstorm:
I also said this last night but the GFS Ensembles continue to show two lows off the SE coast..the GFS operational this morning showed it as well..

Ensembles


GFS Operational


stop it
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10458
813. ncstorm
11:43 AM GMT on June 12, 2012
also the Ensembles are still developing the tropical wave near the antilles..either going up the east coast or tracking into the GOM

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 13481
812. StormTracker2K
11:38 AM GMT on June 12, 2012
Meanwhile Houston to the FL Panhandle could get rocked today by this MCS.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
811. ncstorm
11:37 AM GMT on June 12, 2012
I also said this last night but the GFS Ensembles continue to show two lows off the SE coast..the GFS operational this morning showed it as well..

Ensembles


GFS Operational
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 13481
810. StormTracker2K
11:36 AM GMT on June 12, 2012
Quoting ncstorm:


Yesterday it had it as a 984mb hitting Florida..it has slowed down the track though in the latest run


Yeah it has too considering we have hardly anything to look at right now in the Caribbean. This to me appears to a monsoonal trough type developement and these type of systems take days to organize.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
809. AtHomeInTX
11:34 AM GMT on June 12, 2012
Quoting ncstorm:


I tell ya, this blog will be bananas with the uncertanity of where it could end up..Texas to Florida bloggers could easily break a comment record here..


Lol. Yeah. It should get busy in here if something develops.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 459
808. StormTracker2K
11:34 AM GMT on June 12, 2012
Quoting ncstorm:


I tell ya, this blog will be bananas with the uncertanity of where it could end up..Texas to Florida bloggers could easily break a comment record here..


It could be a S FL to New Orleans set up givien the position of the high during that timeframe as a trough swinging by to the north will pretty take TX out of the mix but again this is the long range and these models will change a 100 times before a solution gets nailed down.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
807. ncstorm
11:33 AM GMT on June 12, 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K:
0Z Nogaps is close to the Euro here. I don't get all the harp on the Nogaps as it has done fairly well the last few years.




Yesterday it had it as a 984mb hitting Florida..it has slowed down the track though in the latest run
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 13481
806. SFLWeatherman
11:32 AM GMT on June 12, 2012
go to me in S FL yes =:)
Quoting StormTracker2K:
0Z Nogaps is close to the Euro here. I don't get all the harp on the Nogaps as it has done fairly well the last few years.


Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4208
805. ncstorm
11:31 AM GMT on June 12, 2012
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Yep. It would be great if it just dragged some rain to TX without getting too developed. :)


I tell ya, this blog will be bananas with the uncertanity of where it could end up..Texas to Florida bloggers could easily break a comment record here..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 13481
804. StormTracker2K
11:30 AM GMT on June 12, 2012
0Z Nogaps is close to the Euro here. I don't get all the harp on the Nogaps as it has done fairly well the last few years.


Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
803. AtHomeInTX
11:28 AM GMT on June 12, 2012
Quoting ncstorm:


now its just a matter of where it may go?


Yep. It would be great if it just dragged some rain to TX without getting too developed. :)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 459
802. StormTracker2K
11:27 AM GMT on June 12, 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K:



I think these forecasters in Houston are worse than the Tampa mets as any Tropical wave or area of low pressure is going to take a lot of time to come together and if it did it would take atleast 9 to 10 days for this moisture to reach FL and another few days to reach as far west as TX but that is an big IF. As this moisture may never make it that far west. I would also beaware of them saying it might rain as numerous times they have done that and it never happens.



Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.