Torrential rain causes widespread flooding in Florida panhandle

By: Angela Fritz , 2:25 AM GMT on June 10, 2012

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Torrential rainfall led to widespread flooding along the northern Gulf Coast on Saturday, and Pensacola came about 2 inches shy of matching its all-time rainfall record for a calendar day: 15.29 inches. On Saturday, Pensacola airport received 13.13 inches of rain. The previous record was set on October 5, 1934, as Tropical Storm 9 of that year was making landfall. The record for any 24 hour period is 17.1 inches, spanning Octover 4-5 in 1934, according to Wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt.

A state of emergency was declared for Florida's Escambia County. According to the AP:

Emergency shelters were opened at a few local schools for people who were urged to evacuate from low-lying areas, the newspaper reported. Thousands were without power. Neighboring Santa Rosa County had about 40 homes flooded.

Streets were flooded throughout Mobile, Ala., which got 5.79 inches of rain. County authorities warned residents to stay off the roads until the waters receded and workers could look for damage and downed utilities.


The rain has since ended for now in the Gulf states, but images and video of the aftermath are still pouring in. The area is expected to receive more rain on Sunday, which could last until the middle of next week, as thunderstorms fire along a stationary front which is draped across the coastal states.


Figure 1. Widespread, heavy rain washes onto the Gulf shores on Saturday, enhanced by a lingering stationary front that's draped across the region. The heaviest rain fell in Pensacola, Florida, which came 2 inches shy of breaking its all-time calendar day rainfall record.


Video: Downtown Pensacola still flooded this evening after the rain had stop. The city's airport received 13.13 inches of rain since midnight.

Angela

Pensacola, FL (Jebekarue)
South Fairfield Drive, north of Hwy 98.
Pensacola, FL
Pensacola Flooding (flwthrfan)
Pensacola
Pensacola Flooding
flood (megulfbreeze)
Out the front window as our house flooded
flood

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Whatever rains we received the past few days, will be drying out and moot with the heat coming on hard this week.
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Quoting beell:
I wonder if the pattern we see today will remain unchanged for 3 months.
no there will be shifts and movements where and how they do that will be what we wait and watch for
windows will open and close we are only in the quickening of the season

the chart


good to see ya friend
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Quoting RitaEvac:


I'm relaxed, I've gotten my rains, other parts of the state going down hill sooner rather than later.

Want some? We had about an inch soak in and 4 run off lots of flooding, tryin to figure out how to post some pictures
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Relax, as long as we can get an inch by the end of July we'll be fine. West Texas will be in drought though. We're in drought stage d0 of 5 stages.


I'm relaxed, I've gotten my rains, other parts of the state going down hill sooner rather than later.
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Quoting beell:
I wonder if the pattern we see today will remain unchanged for 3 months.
Seems it doesn't want to budge.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16968
Moan of the Day!
"Estimates suggest 1.5 million children in the Sahel region face starvation."
Link:-
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-18380851

So whilst the British government is pledging to send £10, million in aid to this, Shael, ( about 15, million dollars.)
The European bank is now approving loans of up to 100,000 Million euros, (about 125,000 Million dollars,) to bale out the Spanish banks. Not the country you understand.( That probably comes later!) but the banks alone and only the big ones at that.
Some of the directors of some of these banks get more than £10 million a year in wages.
Thats why its moan of the day.

Here's the link to the puppet theatre:-

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-18385634

35/C (95/F here,) in baled out land!

What's the update on the chance of Chris by the end of next weekend over in the bowels of the Caribbean?
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:

Yep....exactly....but the question is why does the GFS flare up the Caribbean upper ridge in the first place? I think its because of where the GFS is calculating the jet strem position to be...which is north enough such that no upper trough along the jet stream can disrupt the upper ridge (which exists due to the warm air mass above the warm Caribbean water).

But an upper ridge has a lot of work to do in developing a surface tropical cyclone on its own accord...it takes time to drop surface pressures from nowhere. A catalyst would be a surface tropical wave (which has low surface pressures and surface vorticity). I found it interesting that no single tropical wave has been able to live long enough to sneak under the Caribbean upper ridge so far..."bad luck" if you like tropical cyclones.


Could be because conditions outside of the upper ridge
is harsh along with dry air.
Member Since: May 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2043
Quoting Tribucanes:
Three types of rattlesnakes, copperheads, cottonmouths, and of coarse the coral snake. Luckily the other 43 varieties common to Florida are non venomous.



yes, i just want everyone to keep that in the back of their minds.Up here in NC they seem to have started crawling early and in great abundance.
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN JUN 10 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
THE BAJA PENINSULA HAVE NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS
IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7779
595. beell
I wonder if the pattern we see today will remain unchanged for 3 months.
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Three types of rattlesnakes, copperheads, cottonmouths, and of coarse the coral snake. Luckily the other 43 varieties common to Florida are non venomous.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

I try to do posts every 24 to 36 hours....its hard for me to post exactly the same time everyday due to work and stuff...

Next post on my blog should be tomorrow evening (around 11 PM to midnight) after I get off work & finish updating my analyses...


Balancing work and updating your blogs in excellent details and up to date analysis that's hard work. Very impressing.

Member Since: May 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2043
Quoting Hurricanes305:


Exactly, which leads to lower wind shear and favorable conditions.

Yep....exactly....but the question is why does the GFS flare up the Caribbean upper ridge in the first place? I think its because of where the GFS is calculating the jet strem position to be...which is north enough such that no upper trough along the jet stream can disrupt the upper ridge (which exists due to the warm air mass above the warm Caribbean water).

But an upper ridge has a lot of work to do in developing a surface tropical cyclone on its own accord...it takes time to drop surface pressures from nowhere. A catalyst would be a surface tropical wave (which has low surface pressures and surface vorticity). I found it interesting that no single tropical wave has been able to live long enough to sneak under the Caribbean upper ridge so far..."bad luck" if you like tropical cyclones.
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 472 Comments: 3668
i guess i just hope that everyone will stay aware of that danger
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First day in a while without some rain in West Palm Beach.
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expired; good deal
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as far as dangers from the flooding, i think i would be most afraid of snakes, besides the other obvious dangers of course
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Quoting Tribucanes:
Your wording was just arrogant and I thought condescending. But I'm sure I took it far too seriously, and quite likely out of context. I also love to be pithy....aka the sound of my own voice, so it may have hit a little close to home. I'm sure I'm probably the most in the wrong here so sorry to bite your head off.


Apology accepted.
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Current Tornado Warnings
Open the link and click on an area of intrest

Thanks

Link
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Good evening came to say we got 4.91 inches of rain
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Quoting SubtropicalHi:
It's official:
100 degrees at San Antonio International
Dewpoint: 69

PWS's have higher temps


About 90 here in Galveston. Very humid as always, but it's comfortable.
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Don't look at every single detail in these models....it will drive you nuts...

Best way to interpret is that a broad surface low pressure area is forecast by GFS in the western Caribbean...which I surmise to be from Caribbean upper-level ridging flaring up above. This upper-level ridging enhances outflow for surface pressures to drop.


Exactly, which leads to lower wind shear and favorable conditions.
Member Since: May 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2043
Quoting muddertracker:


Nice blog..how often do you update?

I try to do posts every 24 to 36 hours....its hard for me to post exactly the same time everyday due to work and stuff...

Next post on my blog should be tomorrow evening (around 11 PM to midnight) after I get off work & finish updating my analyses...
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 472 Comments: 3668
Quoting RitaEvac:
Gonna need a tropical storm in TX soon, as drought is going to be coming back with vengeance soon in parts of the state.

Relax, as long as we can get an inch by the end of July we'll be fine. West Texas will be in drought though. We're in drought stage d0 of 5 stages.
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Your wording was just arrogant and I thought condescending. But I'm sure I took it far too seriously, and quite likely out of context. I also love to be pithy....aka the sound of my own voice, so it may have hit a little close to home. I'm sure I'm probably the most in the wrong here so sorry to bite your head off.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
Keep!
There's only 4 quakes on the Japan map now and there hasn't been a major shock for over 3 days.
I'm keeping my eyes well rinsed with this one!
After about 15 months of steady repeat quakes; when they stop, watch out.
All that heavy metal under that new 60 ton shield might just suffer the ten green bottles syndrome, leading up to the China syndrome a bit later of course.
Not joking on this one!
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


What I found a bit more intriguing (for short term) in those maps is the 1013 mb low S of Newfoundland...which I think has a slight chance of becoming a subtropical cyclone beginning June 13....ending June 15....

This is one of the three areas that I mentioned in the intro section of my blog update today....


Nice blog..how often do you update?
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aspectre, awesome, I was going to ask the why earlier.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
Quoting HughJass:


Apparently you misunderstood. My post was specific to acknowledging trolls and had nothing to do with sharing information among the community. Two different subject matters.

Anyhow, there's a potential severe wx event in MN today.



Pretty formidable squall line in MN right now... Very low tornado threat though as there aren't any individual supercells.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7779
Quoting RitaEvac:


All I ever see with the models is lower pressures in the western gulf, if this pattern holds, we know where the stuff is going
Hopefully the sheer will keep things in check...enso neutral for the season is what I hear..possibly moving toward El Nino conditions for the second half of the year...some help there, at least :)
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Quoting Tribucanes:
With age comes wisdom??........who like to hear themselves speak?????? It's a blog, people share, that's the idea. There are many confident people here who know their stuff. So they post a lot. So what, I'm glad they do. Seems your calling a lot of people know-it-all blowhards who love the sound of their own voice. With age comes wisdom, so we know you love the sound of your own voice.


Apparently you misunderstood. My post was specific to acknowledging trolls and had nothing to do with sharing information among the community. Two different subject matters.

Anyhow, there's a potential severe wx event in MN today.


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Quoting muddertracker:


Man if that stays in place throught the season...it's westward ho!


What I found a bit more intriguing (for short term) in those maps is the 1013 mb low S of Newfoundland...which I think has a slight chance of becoming a subtropical cyclone beginning June 13....ending June 15....

This is one of the three areas that I mentioned in the intro section of my blog update today....
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 472 Comments: 3668
Quoting RitaEvac:
Gonna need a tropical storm in TX soon, as drought is going to be coming back with vengeance soon in parts of the state.

Be careful what you wish for.
If you wish for a TS, you could be wishing for DON.
Or ALLISON.
dun dun dun
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:






All I ever see with the models is lower pressures in the western gulf, if this pattern holds, we know where the stuff is going
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213 Tribucanes Thank you TA13, my folks received close to 30 inches over three days some years ago in Palm Coast, Florida. The east coast of Florida takes it well though, like a giant sponge. There was some flooding but nothing like the likes we're seeing in Pensacola.

While nearly all of the Peninsula is fairly flat with gentle rises containing a few bumps and divots, the land rises more sharply near Georgia's and Alabama's border with the Panhandle and eastward.
Rain falling on those northern hills drains rapidly towards the south and towards the coast, adding LOTS of (flood)water to the rain falling upon the relatively-flat slow-draining coastal regions and eastward
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:






Man if that stays in place throught the season...it's westward ho!
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It's official:
100 degrees at San Antonio International
Dewpoint: 69

PWS's have higher temps

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Quoting aspectre:
Over the last ~10days on the forecast maps, I've been noticing the AtoB High's center shifting back and forth between nearBermuda to nearAzore.
Have there been corresponding large movements in real-life, or are the models just whack?


I've learned a bit more about how the AtoB (Azores to Bermuda) surface ridge evolves by studying the upper-levels.

In simplest terms...

It shifts eastward toward the Azores while associated with upper convergence W of a mid-latitude upper trough.

It then resets westward back toward Bermuda when the next mid-latitude upper trough enters the arena...then moves back east towrd the Azores again....and so forth...
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 472 Comments: 3668
With the different pattern setup this year compared to last years, I think the chance of TX hit is in the cards as all parameters point to steering westbound and even west gulf development. After all said and done, expect an event for TX before the end of hurricane season.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Gonna need a tropical storm in TX soon, as drought is going to be coming back with vengeance soon in parts of the state.


God I hope not...I had fires all around me last summer...definitely do not want a repeat of that!
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I wonder how the steering patterns will set up for August and September...and if conus's luck will continue...should be an interesting year.
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New Wyoming supercomputer expected to boost atmospheric science

The National Center for Atmospheric Research's machine is one of the fastest computers ever built, its sheer speed designed to burst through the limits of chaos theory.

http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-supercomp uter-wyoming-20120610,0,2368639.story

...The National Center for Atmospheric Research's supercomputer has been dubbed Yellowstone, after the nearby national park, but it could have been named Nerdvana. The machine will have 100 racks of servers and 72,000 core processors, so many parts that they must be delivered in the back of a 747. Yellowstone will be capable of performing 1.5 quadrillion calculations - a quadrillion is a 1 followed by 15 zeros - every second.

That's nearly a quarter of a million calculations, each second, for every person on Earth. In a little more than an hour, Yellowstone can do as many calculations as there are grains of sand on every beach in the world.

The study of climate and weather patterns has always been hamstrung by volatility %u2014 by elements of chaos in the seas and the air.

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Gonna need a tropical storm in TX soon, as drought is going to be coming back with vengeance soon in parts of the state.
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Quoting sunlinepr:
Really?

we are in for some wild and wackie weather enjoy all this model talk while we can
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Quoting TropicalStormChris:


=(. what have they all turned me into?


sure. blame it on everyone else.
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Quoting sunlinepr:
Really?



No shortage of doom with a setup like that. :|
Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1286
Does anybody know if the severe line of storms that has developed over N. Central FL has a chance to hold together (after sunset) for a few hours as it moves SE?
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Really?

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I really don't think that that low that GFS is forecasting up the US E coast will be tropical just maybe sub-tropical but I think it will be more like Non-tropical
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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