Torrential rain causes widespread flooding in Florida panhandle

By: Angela Fritz , 2:25 AM GMT on June 10, 2012

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Torrential rainfall led to widespread flooding along the northern Gulf Coast on Saturday, and Pensacola came about 2 inches shy of matching its all-time rainfall record for a calendar day: 15.29 inches. On Saturday, Pensacola airport received 13.13 inches of rain. The previous record was set on October 5, 1934, as Tropical Storm 9 of that year was making landfall. The record for any 24 hour period is 17.1 inches, spanning Octover 4-5 in 1934, according to Wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt.

A state of emergency was declared for Florida's Escambia County. According to the AP:

Emergency shelters were opened at a few local schools for people who were urged to evacuate from low-lying areas, the newspaper reported. Thousands were without power. Neighboring Santa Rosa County had about 40 homes flooded.

Streets were flooded throughout Mobile, Ala., which got 5.79 inches of rain. County authorities warned residents to stay off the roads until the waters receded and workers could look for damage and downed utilities.


The rain has since ended for now in the Gulf states, but images and video of the aftermath are still pouring in. The area is expected to receive more rain on Sunday, which could last until the middle of next week, as thunderstorms fire along a stationary front which is draped across the coastal states.


Figure 1. Widespread, heavy rain washes onto the Gulf shores on Saturday, enhanced by a lingering stationary front that's draped across the region. The heaviest rain fell in Pensacola, Florida, which came 2 inches shy of breaking its all-time calendar day rainfall record.


Video: Downtown Pensacola still flooded this evening after the rain had stop. The city's airport received 13.13 inches of rain since midnight.

Angela

Pensacola, FL (Jebekarue)
South Fairfield Drive, north of Hwy 98.
Pensacola, FL
Pensacola Flooding (flwthrfan)
Pensacola
Pensacola Flooding
flood (megulfbreeze)
Out the front window as our house flooded
flood

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Quoting KoritheMan:
Cody, I don't see another blog from you today. Didn't we talk about this? >:(

No. You commented about it on my blog and I made no promises. :P

I'll go write one.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32553
Is the GFS beginning it 0z run?
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"Imagine a day when you woke up and saw this...."


I've had a few of those sitting right on top of me in my lifetime. Think I've come within 50 miles of hurricane eyes about 5 or 6 times.
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Quoting K8eCane:


Dang Kori
What u been smokin?


Shh. You weren't supposed to see that. ;)

How you doing, Kathy?
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Quoting WxGeekVA:
Imagine a day when you woke up and saw this....



This would qualify as DOOM Level: OVER 9000

Great Photoshopping too BTW


im from NYC.. so i would not be getting up
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Quoting KoritheMan:
<>em


Dang Kori
What u been smokin?
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Quoting Tribucanes:
Kori???? first time I've seen you push the envelope quote wise. While I got a good chuckle out of it, I hope you don't get banned. I'm going to plus it to do my part; wow your fast, never mind. Kori, i hope your well brother.


Since the site doesn't IP ban, I shouldn't really care about getting banned. However, nearly 300 blog entries and 12,000 comments would be lost. No thanks.
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Kori???? first time I've seen you push the envelope quote wise. While I got a good chuckle out of it, I hope you don't get banned. I'm going to plus it to do my part; wow your fast, never mind. Kori, i hope your well brother.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
Imagine a day when you woke up and saw this....



This would qualify as DOOM Level: OVER 9000

Great Photoshopping too BTW
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Made me laugh.



ugh he back with other name on the same day wish is not cool
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115379
Quoting Patterns:


Hmmmm, your analyses are quite meticulous, thorough, and surprisingly accurate; HOWEVER, by the same token, they do not exceed those of Levi's analyses.

Sorry to burst your bubble there, young lad. But in retrospect this was needed because I don't want you to get in over your head, as it were.

But regardless, I will admit to the fact that you certainly know your stuff when it comes to this field of study!

But again, Levi's professionalism and resounding expertise when it comes to tropical meteorology is mind-numbing to say the least! Which is why NOBODY on here surpasses him in that regard (In case you didn't know). What he states in here is considered to be ABSOLUTE LAW in regards to meteorology. Don't believe me? Ask some of the other bloggers on here, =).
Sorry,I don't take what anyone in here says as ABSOLUTE LAW!! There are several individuals whose opinions and thoughts I value. They know who they are and shall remain nameless!!
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Cody, I don't see another blog from you today. Didn't we talk about this? >:(
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Made me laugh.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32553
this kid has got too go his 1 name TropicalStormChris got ban now he circumvener his ban and now back has Patterns on the same day wish is not cool

Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115379
I would take that off Kori.
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Well stated and very articulate Tom Taylor, the mainstays, (and I include Keeper, even though I think he dislikes me; I love the Keep :)) are on point, days ahead, and give a lot to mull over. Keep up the good work and strive for greatness; while maintaining a humble disposition. Thanks again all who provide me with information above my pay grade, which is full time dad.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
Has Grothar been on lately?
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lolololol
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TropicalStormChris got bannd now he back with other name
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115379
Quoting TomTaylor:
Hey Joe!

It's cloudy right now. Was sunny earlier and it has been getting sunny every day during the afternoon, once the marine layer breaks. Overall, been pretty sunny and nice considering we are in June or "June gloom" as they call it.
Yup the annual June gloom. Been nice out here 82 today.
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ugh
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115379
Quoting TomTaylor:
Yeah, I know don't worry

I've got a question. What's your overall forecast for 93E?
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Quoting TomTaylor:
And (yes, I know I'm quoting myself here) the time and effort part here is key. Any one of us could become the next Levi if we wish. All you need is the dedication and desire to put forward the time and effort needed to understand tropical meteorology, or anything for that matter.

Not to mention he's in college already. Gives 'em an advantage when most of us are still in high--or even middle--school lol.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32553
Quoting nigel20:

Don't pay that guy any attention, he's just trying to get you agitated....I've learned quite a bit from reading your very informative post.
Yeah, I know don't worry
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
I think ole Don was fighting alosing battle from the get,with that HUGE ridge over Texas and all the North to Northeasterly shear.
Quoting Tribucanes:
Don was almost unbelievable. Few storms in history have dissipated so instantly and completely. I believe the only ones to disappear more quickly went over mountainous terrain. I've been following hurricanes for well over a decade and don't recall ever seeing anything like Don.


I've been watching cane's for nearly 4 decades and I don't ever recall seeing a storm evaporate like that one. There was CAT 5 Allen (1980) that ran into another Texas drought, but that storms still did some serious damage in South and Central Texas.
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Quoting TomTaylor:
And (yes, I know I'm quoting myself here) the time and effort part here is key. Any one of us could become the next Levi if we wish. All you need is the dedication and desire to put forward the time and effort needed to understand tropical meteorology, or anything for that matter.

Don't pay that guy any attention, he's just trying to get you agitated....I've learned quite a bit from reading your very informative post.
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Quoting TomTaylor:

Certainly respect the guy for the time and effort he puts into his work and I hope he sticks around.
And (yes, I know I'm quoting myself here) the time and effort part here is key. Any one of us could become the next Levi if we wish. All you need is the dedication and desire to put forward the time and effort needed to understand tropical meteorology, or anything for that matter. Sure somethings come easier for some people, but if you have a strong desire and the persistence, you will succeed.
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Quoting Patterns:


Hmmmm, your analyses are quite meticulous, thorough, and surprisingly accurate; HOWEVER, by the same token, they do not exceed those of Levi's analyses.

Sorry to burst your bubble there, young lad. But in retrospect this was needed because I don't want you to get to in over your head, as it were.

But regardless, I will dammit tot eh fact that you certainly know your stuff when it comes to this field of study!

But again, Levi's professionalism and resounding expertise when it comes to tropical meteorology is mind-numbing to say the least! Which is why NOBODY on here surpasses him in that regard (In case you didn't know). What he states in here is considered to be ABSOLUTE LAW in regards to meteorology. Don't believe ask some of the other bloggers on here, =).
I know you're a troll, but I'll respond to you anyway; Levi does make great posts, brings forward excellent points, and is very professional and mature. I'll admit he is also more knowledgeable than me on the topic of meteorology and tropical meteorology and I have also learned most of what I know from him. Obviously I disagree that what he says is law and all that nonsense, but that's you being a troll so whatever.

Certainly respect the guy for the time and effort he puts into his work and I hope he sticks around.
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A compulsive liar is defined as someone who lies out of habit. Lying is their normal and reflexive way of responding to questions. Compulsive liars bend the truth about everything, large and small. For a compulsive liar, telling the truth is very awkward and uncomfortable while lying feels right. Compulsive lying is usually thought to develop in early childhood, due to being placed in an environment where lying was necessary. For the most part, compulsive liars are not overly manipulative and cunning (see, Pathological Liar), rather they simply lie out of habit - an automatic response which is hard to break and one that takes its toll on a relationship (see, how to cope with a compulsive liar).
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
evening N20

Hey Keeper...what's up?
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weird one tornado producing cell today with all the storms
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Quoting nigel20:
Good evening everyone!


good evening
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El Nino years typically have troughiness along the East Coast and King TUTT usually rules the Caribbean.
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evening N20
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54864
Good evening everyone!
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54864
Quoting TomTaylor:
Those are the 10m winds fool! Lol, but yea I get what you're saying. On the 12z GFS Ensemble the anticyclone is still present over the Caribbean, however it is a lot flatter and it is pushed off to the east centering it over the middle of the Caribbean, whereas before we saw a very amplified anticyclone forming over the western Caribbean. End result is more shear and less upper divergence over the western and northern Caribbean, which is where we are currently trying to get development.

12z GFS Ensemble 250mb Winds at 180hrs




LOL my mistake.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32553
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You can see it well here too.



A few days ago, there was a huge anticyclone across the west and central Caribbean.
Those are the 10m winds fool! Lol, but yea I get what you're saying. On the 12z GFS Ensemble the anticyclone is still present over the Caribbean, however it is a lot flatter and it is pushed off to the east centering it over the middle of the Caribbean, whereas before we saw a very amplified anticyclone forming over the western Caribbean. End result is more shear and less upper divergence over the western and northern Caribbean, which is where we are currently expecting development should anything come out of the Caribbean (yes, we are looking off the East Coast for possible development too).

12z GFS Ensemble 250mb Winds at 180hrs



12z GFS Ensemble 250mb Winds from 2 Days ago for the same time frame




Notice the run from two days ago shows a much more amplified upper level anticyclone over the Caribbean and places it slightly further west. Furthermore, on the 12z GFS Ensemble from two days ago the upper trough is over the Gulf of Mexico with a neutral tilt (oriented N-S), whereas today's 12z GFS Ensemble run has a large positively tilted (SW-NE orientation) extending from the midlatitude upper level westerlies almost into the Gulf of Mexico off and over the East Coast.
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54864
Quoting TomTaylor:
Read back on the blog and noticed some people getting concerned about the lack of enthusiasm from the models on developing a system in the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico. The ECMWF has completely dropped development in the Caribbean or Gulf and the GFS shows a broad low but doesn't do much with it. The reason behind this is the upper level troughiness being placed over the SW Atlantic. The result is development in the northern Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico is being hindered by the subtropical jet which is shearing the region. Furthermore, this trough is providing for development of another low pressure system in the SW Atlantic (warm core, tropical on model phase analysis) which is robbing the Caribbean and the Gulf of convergence. People have been noticing the GFS splitting the low in the Caribbean, or failing to significantly consolidate the low, and the reason for this is the lack of convergence (in addition to the less favorable upper level conditions).


12z GFS Ensemble depiction of the trough over the East Coast/SW Atlantic dipping into the Gulf and Caribbean





12z ECMWF Ensemble showing low SLP off the East Coast, resulting in convergence being spread across the SW Atlantic, rather than focused on the Caribbean




So the models showing a stronger upper level trough over the East coast and SW Atlantic explains why they have become less enthusiastic about development over the Gulf and Caribbean region. However, ensemble runs still show large areas of low pressure in the western Caribbean and this is beyond a week out, so we will have to keep our eyes open, especially with the current MJO forecast. And keep in mind I'm trying to shed light on the lack of enthusiasm from today's model runs, by no means am I saying we won't see development in this area.




Finally, as people have already noted, this upper level troughing over the SW Atlantic may help incubate a trough split and allow it to become a tropical or subtropical cyclone. Although the ECMWF and GFS both try and develop something in this area, it is a long way out though so confidence is still poor and this is highlighted by the large disagreement on timing and positioning of the low. Anyway, just another thing to keep in mind in addition to possible development in the Caribbean.

You can see it well here too.



A few days ago, there was a huge anticyclone across the west and central Caribbean.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32553
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Have to say hi to my neighbor Tom Taylor. How's things in the big city Tom?
Hey Joe!

It's cloudy right now. Was sunny earlier and it has been getting sunny every day during the afternoon, once the marine layer breaks. Overall, been pretty sunny and nice considering we are in June or "June gloom" as they call it.
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Quoting TomTaylor:
Read back on the blog and noticed some people getting concerned about the lack of enthusiasm from the models on developing a system in the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico. The ECMWF has completely dropped development in the Caribbean or Gulf and the GFS shows a broad low but doesn't do much with it. The reason behind this is the upper level troughiness being placed over the SW Atlantic. The result is development in the northern Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico is being hindered by the subtropical jet which is shearing the region. Furthermore, this trough is providing for development of another low pressure system in the SW Atlantic (warm core, tropical on model phase analysis) which is robbing the Caribbean and the Gulf of convergence. People have been noticing the GFS splitting the low in the Caribbean, or failing to significantly consolidate the low, and the reason for this is the lack of convergence (in addition to the less favorable upper level conditions).


12z GFS Ensemble depiction of the trough over the East Coast/SW Atlantic dipping into the Gulf and Caribbean





12z ECMWF Ensemble showing low SLP off the East Coast, resulting in convergence being spread across the SW Atlantic, rather than focused on the Caribbean




So the models showing a stronger upper level trough over the East coast and SW Atlantic explains why they have become less enthusiastic about development over the Gulf and Caribbean region. However, ensemble runs still show large areas of low pressure, and this is beyond a week out, so we will have to keep our eyes open, especially with the current MJO forecast. And keep in mind I'm trying to shed light on the lack of enthusiasm from today's model runs, by no means am I saying we won't see development in this area.




Finally, as people have already noted, this upper level troughing over the SW Atlantic may help incubate a trough split and allow it to become a tropical or subtropical cyclone. Although the ECMWF and GFS both try and develop something in this area, it is a long way out though so confidence is still poor and this is highlighted by the large disagreement on timing and positioning of the low. Anyway, just another thing to keep in mind in addition to possible development in the Caribbean.


That is an excellent detailed explanation about the current situation in terms of the models.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14596
can anyone explain how a small storm explodes into this super cell thunderstorm that packs 1.50 inch hail size and has a 66 dbz, IN ALASKA!?

my mind is litterally blown right now
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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